Gartner research predicts Windows Phone 7 will fail like Kin

A well known market research company, Gartner, has made the prediction that Windows Phone 7 will ultimately be a flop -- much like the Kin -- and won't gather the popularity Microsoft hopes it will. 

InformationWeek reports that Gartner predicts that when Windows Phone 7 is released later this month, Microsoft will see a slight rise in their overall market share, and, after a short time it will fall even lower than what it currently is. They predict that Microsoft's market share will move from 4.7% this year to just 5.2% next year. Gartner also believe by 2014 Microsoft's market share will have declined to just 3.9%.

If Windows Phone 7 does fail as badly as the Kin, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, may not receive his yearly bonus. The Microsoft chief did not receive his maximum bonus this year despite a record year with the company's highest sales. Ballmer received half the amount he was entitled to, which would have been more if Microsoft's mobile division had been more successful.

Currently, Android based phones hold 32% of the US market and Apple holds 25% so Microsoft has a very large mountain to climb to get their phone into the hands of mobile smartphone users. Despite all the odds though, Steve Ballmer is still confident he can turn things around for their mobile division, the Wall Street Journal asked Ballmer,  

WSJ: If you look at the market share stats, the Apple guys have done well, the Android guys have really surged and you guys have lost share the past couple years. How hard is it to make that ground back up?
 
Mr. Ballmer: We'll see. The fact that things have been pretty dynamic means that they're probably still pretty dynamic.
 
WSJ: So you think things could change quickly in terms of market share?
 
Mr. Ballmer: I said they can. There's no doubt that things have changed quickly, and at least in my undergraduate degree in math, that's called an existence proof. We know it's possible, we'll see what happens.
We will find out soon enough if Gartner's estimates are correct or if Ballmer will be able to turn things around for Microsoft in the mobile market. 
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Its too little too late for Microsoft.....i guess they should have improvised or at-least tried harder when android came in to market, i hope the product is as better as they say it is

Android and WP7 are pretty much the same thing, ie. a platform play for mobile OEMs. So how they reach the conclusion that WP7 will fail before it's even started is beyond me, especially when it's the same OEMs producing handsets for WP7 as they do Android. I for one am looking forward to a WP7 phone after the confines of iOS devices.

Pegus said,
Android and WP7 are pretty much the same thing, ie. a platform play for mobile OEMs. So how they reach the conclusion that WP7 will fail before it's even started is beyond me, especially when it's the same OEMs producing handsets for WP7 as they do Android. I for one am looking forward to a WP7 phone after the confines of iOS devices.

Android and WP7 are NOT pretty much the same thing. Android is an "open" platform and WP7 is "closed" (nearly as closed as the iPhone). Android is "open" because it allows OEMs (not consumers) near complete freedom to modify the platform. WP7 HIGHLY restricts what an OEM can do. Android permits side-loading of applications while WP7 and iPhone REQUIRE all apps to get officially blessed. Now OEMs or carries may CHOOSE to restrict some of these features making the end result to the consumers closer to a "closed" system but that's their CHOICE and that's the point... with Apple and Microsoft these are not choices. You think Google wanted Verizon to replace all the google search stuff with Bing on the Samsung Fascinate? Heck no, but they can because it's "open". There are rumors now that Amazon is going to set up a rival marketplace for Android devices. If it turns out to be true or not isn't the point, the point is that they COULD because the platform is "open". Having a rival marketplace isn't even an option with WP7 or the iPhone. Android will be successful (that doesn't mean eliminate all opposition) because it offers something different, choice (even if the choices are being made by the OEMs and carriers instead of the consumers.) I'm not sure what WP7 offers that either Android or iPhone don't besides a slick new UI and at the end of the day I'm not sure if that's enough. That said I wouldn't believe something just because Gartner research said so.

Well fanboys, WP7 will be WF7. No copy and paste come on! We will have to wait for WP8 and see what happens. As for WP7 it is FoF. And that is the bottom line.

Mikee4fun said,
Well fanboys, WP7 will be WF7. No copy and paste come on! We will have to wait for WP8 and see what happens. As for WP7 it is FoF. And that is the bottom line.

Wake me up when you can copy text from an email you're reading in the Gmail app.

Joshie said,

Wake me up when you can copy text from an email you're reading in the Gmail app.

I won't need to do that because I don't use the Gmail app. =)

Gartner writing off WP7 is practically a GUARANTEE of its success. Steve Ballmer should write a big thank you email message to Gartner right this instant. LMAO!

Wow, I had thought that my view of Microsoft was a bit harsh. Give the bird a chance to fly before sounding its death knell. The key for Windows Phone 7's success or failure will be in applications, lets see if they have enough spunk to ramp up as quickly as was done for the Android o/s. For me, for now, the verdict is out...I would trust the visions Merlin but not Gartner, judging from past predictions they surely must need a new set of tarot cards.

If Gartner is credible, then this should be reflected in their past predictions, no?
lets see some Gartner predictions from 2007
(from zdnet) " Vista will be the last major release of Windows ever, according to Gartner.", "Vista will be the last major release of Microsoft Windows. The next generation of operating environments will be more modular and will be updated incrementally....

peterpulmonary said,
If Gartner is credible

You can stop right there. You might as well start your sentence with "If my aunt had balls".

bj55555 said,

You can stop right there. You might as well start your sentence with "If my aunt had balls".

SONOVA--

*grabs a towel and mops up drink he just spilled*

Gartner is partially right with that though, because Windows 7 is NOT generally considered to be a major release (despite being called that by Microsoft), since it mostly builds upon and corrects many of the flaws of Vista. I haven't read much yet about Windows 8, but I'm guessing that it will be similar to what they describe: more modular and will be updated incrementally.

The public opinion of companies cjange all the time look at apple their history is a series of peaks and troths. A good product is a good product and the reviews of wp7 are positive so its off to a good start.

Just the pure speed of the software is amazing. I have a prototype developer device, and the one thing that iPhone users always tell me when I demonstrate it for them is that the OS is so much faster than iOS.

Here is the key to what WinPhone7 has going for it.

Ease of development. Writing a polished and pretty application for WP7 is 10 to 20 times easier than Android or iOS. Graphics are easy in Silverlight, without having to drop to XNA or (OpenGL as on Android) and the API set that the OS reports to the applications has full touch and gesture interactions, instead of user touched here and dragged their finger to X,Y.

This will create a massive shift in developers moving current 'apps' to the device and enticing businesses customers to development more in house applications as well.

WP7 also offers consistency in hardware with a baseline of a DX9 level GPU, with some DX11 features and cross functionality between XBox Live independat developers and the phone, giving it graphical and gaming features beyond iPhone and most Android based devices.

The 'unknown' is how users adapt to the phone and how likable it is. Based on users that get a chance to play with a ZuneHD, I am going to guess people will like it. But then who knows...

I agree. Are these pukes ever in touch with the real world? I certainly can't tell. My wife and I are also upgrading to WP7. I'm glad I still have my unlimited data plan at AT&T.

It's research like this that makes me glad that Gartner and Forrester are my employer's decision makers.

oh why didn't I buy the sarc mark.

Hard to believe that these folks get paid to make predictions. Windows Phone 7 is being rollout internationally, that alone should improve its prospects for success. It potentially could do better in Europe than here in the U.S. All I know for sure is that my wife and I are upgrading to WP7.

Pulgafree said,
Did they predicted Kin's fall too? I don't recall Gartner saying anything about Kin before release. Anyone?

They didn't need to as pretty much everyone saw that one coming already.

Based on what research do they believe it will fail like the Kin? Microsoft has decent platform this time around, unlike the Kin.

very bold statement...

WP7 and Kin have nothing in common! I've tried Kin and didn't even know what to do with the useless phone after 10min...

Quick Shot said,
very bold statement...

WP7 and Kin have nothing in common! I've tried Kin and didn't even know what to do with the useless phone after 10min...

Well, they do have stuff in common... They both have Zune software built in, and if I remember right, the KIN is kind of built off of what WP7 is, to an extent.

But that is besides the point WP7 is a lot more advanced and capable than the KIN.

Quick Shot said,
WP7 and Kin have nothing in common! I've tried Kin and didn't even know what to do with the useless phone after 10min...

I guess you don't have many friends....

you know, to text and call. That is what a phone is for, after all.

It looks like an interesting OS, but I'd be shocked if it ever reaches a 10% share of the US market. Changing the public's perception of Windows Mobile AND getting people to choose WP7 over the already established and respected Android, iOS, and Blackberry platforms is going to be tough for sure. Developers need to make an immediate splash with their apps for this OS.

chaos_disorder said,
Changing the public's perception of Windows Mobile AND getting people to choose WP7 over the already established and respected Android, iOS, and Blackberry platforms is going to be tough for sure.

I agree, but also disagree, because the people reading Neowin might have a notion as to which OS they are running, but most people running Android or Windows Phone on their HTC Desire or HTC HD2 don't really care about the OS. So if the HTC Mozart looks cool, they will buy it. I think you should not mistake our knowledge with that of the average phone user.

The public doesn't have a perception of Windows Mobile - they've never heard of it so there's nothing to change. They have however heard of Windows 7, and they've heard good things. Windows Phone 7 being so similarly named is a good thing.

~Johnny said,
The public doesn't have a perception of Windows Mobile - they've never heard of it so there's nothing to change. They have however heard of Windows 7, and they've heard good things. Windows Phone 7 being so similarly named is a good thing.

EXACTLY. The general public doesn't know squat about the old Windows Mobile, that's a plus in Microsoft's name.

The enterprise market does know about Windows Mobile, and they know that it was good for business phones, as are Blackberries. So that benefits Microsoft once again.

chaos_disorder said,
It looks like an interesting OS, but I'd be shocked if it ever reaches a 10% share of the US market. Changing the public's perception of Windows Mobile AND getting people to choose WP7 over the already established and respected Android, iOS, and Blackberry platforms is going to be tough for sure. Developers need to make an immediate splash with their apps for this OS.

I can't imagine anyone choosing Android over WP7.

andrewbares said,
EXACTLY. The general public doesn't know squat about the old Windows Mobile, that's a plus in Microsoft's name.

The enterprise market does know about Windows Mobile, and they know that it was good for business phones, as are Blackberries. So that benefits Microsoft once again.

The enterprise customers will be the biggest benefactors when one considers the development tools Microsoft provides - this is the one area where Apple, Android and Blackberry are the weakest in. The competitors do not have a larger ecosystem or development tools which allow applications to span from the desktop to the laptop to the handheld and smart phone. When you can create a single Silverlight application and deploy it company wide without a single line of code changed then one can guess who the winner of the phone wars will be in the enterprise segment.

chaos_disorder said,
It looks like an interesting OS, but I'd be shocked if it ever reaches a 10% share of the US market. Changing the public's perception of Windows Mobile AND getting people to choose WP7 over the already established and respected Android, iOS, and Blackberry platforms is going to be tough for sure. Developers need to make an immediate splash with their apps for this OS.

As said above, the public has no perception of Windows Mobile. It was never advertised. The public knows iPhones, Droids, and a few Blackberries. They don't "respect" Android either, they're just the cool new not-iPhones that are just like iPhones.

I hope for WP7 success, but if it 'fails'... i feel it's less likely due to bringing something interesting to market as it is the resistence for another player to be in the market by Gartner, Goldman Sachs and bias in reporting and blogs.

majg said,
I hope for WP7 success, but if it 'fails'... i feel it's less likely due to bringing something interesting to market as it is the resistence for another player to be in the market by Gartner, Goldman Sachs and bias in reporting and blogs.

Exactly what I've been saying for years; the mainstream media and bigwigs have a large sway on public opinion, and if there's not enough proper endorsement (like what Apple receives very often), then most people will probably avoid it. It also doesn't help when a lot of tech gadgets are compared to Apple gadgets, but Apple gadgets aren't as often compared to other gadgets. Really ridiculous.

I don't think it'll fare that bad. But it's an uphill battle for Microsoft, no doubt about that.

Kin barely made a dent at all, so it's actually pretty hard to do that bad.

Ballmer is right in that the market is still pretty dynamic, which could no doubt work in Microosoft's favor. But it won't come easy.

Koshy John said,
Tells us a lot more about Gartner than it does about Microsoft or Windows Phone 7.

Gartner has been down on MS for a long time, and in some ways its deserved. But with them turning corners in pretty much every market they're in, I think Gartner is just coming out looking foolish.

Sometimes these idiots seem to talk from their behinds. Microsoft has been pushing WM7 phones hard ... and they're NOT going to fail. No chance. These phones are getting very good reception from reviewers etc. Most previous MS phone devices have had a negative response in general.

Shiranui said,
That's why they call them analysts...
Analysts are not prophets. They are analysts, so they should be talking facts. Forecasting is basically just a bad way think about things. Nobody can predict what would happen a year from now even with 20% accuracy based on the information available now. (citation: Books on forecasting and investing. Don't remember the exact books.) Gartner would say this today, but if WP7 does not fail in the next year and does fail 5 years from now, they could still say, "we told you so, but we were just 5 years late". Great excuse for forecasters.

Osiris research predicts Gartner research fails hard.

MS has done plenty of things differently with WP7 on top of which WP7 appeals to a broader market which the kin simply did not.

Osiris said,
Osiris research predicts Gartner research fails hard.

MS has done plenty of things differently with WP7 on top of which WP7 appeals to a broader market which the kin simply did not.

I second that - these are the same idiots who claimed that Itanium would be a roaring success, replacing all Xeon's and being a $20billion and higher industry by this time. Well, here we are in 2010 and none of that has happened. All I can say to Gartner is "go suck eggs".

rawr_boy81 said,
All I can say to Gartner is "go suck eggs".

Does Gartner even have any evidence or supporting claims? Or they just decided "We don't like MS, they're gonna fail"

andrewbares said,

Does Gartner even have any evidence or supporting claims? Or they just decided "We don't like MS, they're gonna fail"

Isn't that what predictions are usually about? They usually have little to know factual base, they just guess.

andrewbares said,
Does Gartner even have any evidence or supporting claims? Or they just decided "We don't like MS, they're gonna fail"

I've always questioned that myself; I've had more success guessing the future than the millions that Gartner receives from gullible clients each quarter. I was saying the same things (in regards to Itanium) back when Sledge Hammer was on the drawing board at AMD. Itanium would fail because it was dependent on too many things going right for the Itanium to ultimately pull through in the long run.

Same can be said about WP7, I'll put money on it the lazy sods at Gartner haven't even looked at the product and actually compared Kin to WP7 other than the brainless assumption that because they're both based off Windows CE then obviously they're going to have the same outcome. The Kin was based off a crappy old version of Windows CE with an ancient version of Internet Explorer being sold to a carrier whose plan was too expensive for the segment that the Kin was designed to go after. It was the perfect cluster**** in the making and I'm not surprised it did fail (nor did I think many Microsoft employees either).

WP7 is available on multiple devices from multiple carriers and will rolled out internationally over two months - I don't know about you but that is a well planned and executed strategy when compared to the Kin.

rawr_boy81 said,

Same can be said about WP7, I'll put money on it the lazy sods at Gartner haven't even looked at the product and actually compared Kin to WP7 other than the brainless assumption that because they're both based off Windows CE then obviously they're going to have the same outcome. The Kin was based off a crappy old version of Windows CE with an ancient version of Internet Explorer being sold to a carrier whose plan was too expensive for the segment that the Kin was designed to go after. It was the perfect cluster**** in the making and I'm not surprised it did fail (nor did I think many Microsoft employees either).

The problem is that the ball isn't in Microsoft's court half the time. Remember that a certain carrier sunk the Kin - a carrier that insisted on ridiculous data plans and prices that took the Kin out of its intended market. How well would the netbook revolution have gone if Asus had priced the eeePC equivalent to a Macbook?

I've been a bit disappointed by the hardware offerings of leaked handsets so far. The most internal storage offered has been 16 GB, and this has only been on one unit. The battery pack specs have also seemed somewhat anemic, but these aren't faults of WP7. Whether things will really take off, or simply grow slowly remains to be seen.