IDC: Windows Phone to become number two mobile OS by 2016

Research firm IDC believes Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see significant growth over the next four years, according to a report it released today.

In the report, IDC states Windows Phone will see significant adoption in coming years due in large part to Microsoft's partnership with Nokia. While Microsoft's latest mobile platform has seen a slow start, the firm expects it to account for 19.2 percent of the mobile market by 2016. Currently, Windows Phone and Microsoft's older mobile platform, Windows Mobile, combine to make up about 5.2 percent of the mobile market. This increase in platform usage represents a 46.2 percent compound annual growth rate over four years, which is easily the largest growth rate the IDC predicts among the major mobile platforms.

The research firm also believes Android has hit its peak this year, as it expects Google's platform to drop from its 2012 market share of 61 percent down to 52.9 percent in 2016. Android will still remain the most-shipped platform, according to the firm's predictions, and will also have the largest market share. The firm predict's Apple's iOS platform to decrease slightly, from its 2012 market share of 20.5 percent down to 19 percent in 2016.

Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst at IDC, stated there will be a gradual growth toward smartphones from feature phones.

"The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion," Restivo said. "Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7."

Via: The Next Web
Source: IDC | Image via IDC

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android's decline is inevitable. the mobile landscape will never look like the desktop OS landscape with one company controlling over 90% of the market. Android's future is further put into question by other companies pulling an amazon and using android as the platform but them completely removing all google ware from it and turningn into something that is only android by root but unrecognizeable otherwise. Such fragementation in the consumer's eye will only reduce its perceived dominance which is ultimately the only relevant metric.

it is going to be a 3 way split in the future with either party taking a slight lead but never really dominating. Tablets may be a different story. Android has all but failed to repeat it's 1 time trick with cell phones and with windows 8 on the verge of release it has all but ran out of time to make a dent on apple's dominance.

google as usual, just doesn't get it. tablets are not phones in that they are not considered an essential device and bundling its free os by default strategy just doesn't pay out when people are given a choice. few if anybody choses android any more than windows. it is just there. And so when choice matters, android loses nearly every time.

Even though I wouldn't switch, it would be nice to have another player in the field but I honestly can't see this happening. Its starting to become the same as "this is the year of linux"

I'd love for that to be the case, but I don't think these analysts can predict these kinds of things. I thought Windows Phone was dead on arrival?

projecting former results, by 2016, WP8 will be dead then Microsoft will launch a new phone.

Proof: Zune, Kim and WP7 and soon wp7.5

You know this is probably more reasonable than people are making out. Two years from now when Windows 8 has been around for a little while, I think Windows Phones will become more 'known' and more mature as an OS. Windows 8 on desktops and tablets will undoubtedly increase the marketshare of the WP OS.

Seems pretty logical.

Tom said,
You know this is probably more reasonable than people are making out. Two years from now when Windows 8 has been around for a little while, I think Windows Phones will become more 'known' and more mature as an OS. Windows 8 on desktops and tablets will undoubtedly increase the marketshare of the WP OS.

Seems pretty logical.

Windows 8 on desktop will increase WP 8 market share ?

So using this logic Mac OSX has a way bigger market share than we think it has.

Did not another firm predicted 1 year ago WP to be at this position by next year (or close to it) ?

Did IDC help Morgan Stanley with the facebook IPO by any chance?
The trouble is Windows Phone has zero hype at the moment from personal experience. Most people i know of who are getting a new phone don`t even realize it exists!

All MS has to do is put out cheap budget phones and its set. Most of the people I know that use android have the budget $80 unlocked cellphones like optimus one etc...

The reason its on top is cause even dirtpoor welfare people can afford to own one. Apple and MS don't have poor people phones they only have $400+ phones.

How about more phones in general? I don't know where you're from, but in the US for example, Verizon is opting to not put out any new Windows Phone until WP8, while others aren't really pushing it at all aside from AT&T (yuck).

Currently, the selection is rather poor.

dead.cell said,
How about more phones in general? I don't know where you're from, but in the US for example, Verizon is opting to not put out any new Windows Phone until WP8, while others aren't really pushing it at all aside from AT&T (yuck).

Exactly. I've been waiting for Verizon to get a better selection of WP devices so I can drop my Droid X.
Currently, the selection is rather poor.

Adopting Windows Phones won't be that hard assuming that Windows 8 succeeds.. Metro for everyone.

rom said,
Adopting Windows Phones won't be that hard assuming that Windows 8 succeeds.. Metro for everyone.

Yeah. While I think it's unlikely to become the number-two mobile OS above iOS, I think it could get really competitive if Windows 8 is successful from a consumer perspective (obviously from a financial perspective it'll sell well no matter way).

I think this is highly possible if: This year MS fixes Bluetooth Serial Profiles for WP8 AND WP7.x and if ASAP they produce a Facebook app that works with notifications. 1-3 hours after iphone and iPad go ding is amateurish and stoopid.

IDC and Gartner - constantly doling out rubbish incorrect "predictions" or sometimes just facts anyone can common sense can figure out.

IDC is getting ridiculous.
No, it won't happen. Windows Phone is stuck with the "Windows" name and it just doesn't cut it for consumers.
Velocity is increasing in the Windows Phone market but not enough to reach this predicted level.

TheCyberKnight said,
IDC is getting ridiculous.
No, it won't happen. Windows Phone is stuck with the "Windows" name and it just doesn't cut it for consumers.
Velocity is increasing in the Windows Phone market but not enough to reach this predicted level.

Windows doesn't cut it for consumers? What are you talking about? Any right minded person will go with Microsoft before Apple...

TheCyberKnight said,
IDC is getting ridiculous.
No, it won't happen. Windows Phone is stuck with the "Windows" name and it just doesn't cut it for consumers.
Velocity is increasing in the Windows Phone market but not enough to reach this predicted level.

This is spot on. They should have followed the Xbox example.

TheCyberKnight said,
IDC is getting ridiculous.
No, it won't happen.

It's best to ignore any reports from IDC. They get paid "consulting fees" from vested interests to produce these propaganda reports .

alwaysonacoffebreak said,

Windows doesn't cut it for consumers? What are you talking about? Any right minded person will go with Microsoft before Apple...

Going with the "Windows" name for the phone platform wasn't the brightest idea.
The Microsoft name does have some tarnish on it in the consumers mind, especially on phones. And whether you like it or not, it is not as popular as the "Google" or "Apple" names are these days.

Android will start losing "share" of this market because of their releases.

Windows will conquer Mobile market getting the attention of Business market. thats almost for sure. I'm already seeing uber x86 mobile phones.

Fayker said,

Windows will conquer Mobile market getting the attention of Business market. thats almost for sure. I'm already seeing uber x86 mobile phones.

What business market? Everyone brings their own phones in now. There's only one market now - the consumer market.

I'm not a fan of Android, but how so? They've had some good releases thus far, and the Galaxy SIII is still due to be released this month is the US and Canada.

Fayker said,
Android will start losing "share" of this market because of their releases.

Windows will conquer Mobile market getting the attention of Business market. thats almost for sure. I'm already seeing uber x86 mobile phones.


dream on.... Iphone has been slowly capturing business market from blackberry... every company i go I see them moving to iphone... couple of the companies were doing trial run for iphone move.. thats far from reach for wp at the moment.

yowanvista said,
lol... That won't happen, the market will still be flooded with Droids & Apple will still hold a significant share.

actually we cant be sure. MS been real secretive on WP8. We have to see it to know surely if it will make a bigger impact or not.

Kushan said,
lol:
http://articles.businessinside...ymbian-share-windows-phones

They said 2015 last year. In fact, they've practically repeated word for word what they said last year except it's 2016 instead of 2015.

That's what happens when Microsoft commissions reports like these. And even if the report were untainted by "consulting fees", these market research firms have trouble predicting quarter to quarter, let alone four years in the future.

If I was a betting man, I'd pick Tizen as the third ecosystem. With Samsung's weight behind it, I see bright things in Tizen's future.

Kushan said,

I suppose 2016 will be the year of the Linux Desktop.

I don't know about 2016, but Linux has been my desktop for years

Next year's title:
IDC: "WP will be #2 by 2017".

Just look at IDC's BlackBerry numbers, you can tell how accurate their reports are.

simplezz said,

That's what happens when Microsoft commissions reports like these. And even if the report were untainted by "consulting fees", these market research firms have trouble predicting quarter to quarter, let alone four years in the future.

If I was a betting man, I'd pick Tizen as the third ecosystem. With Samsung's weight behind it, I see bright things in Tizen's future.


I don't know about 2016, but Linux has been my desktop for years


I'm all up in tech news and tech. I've barely ever heard anything about Tizen. No offense, and this is from someone who does respect the movement, don't drink the OSS kool-aid too much.

Projections my fanny. This isn't happening and I love my WP dearly. People are in love with their iOS and Android devices.

seebaran said,
Projections my fanny. This isn't happening and I love my WP dearly. People are in love with their iOS and Android devices.

You'd be surprised. My girlfriend was waiting since highschool for the iPhone on Verizon. She's had the 4s for less than a year now, and last night told me she thinks she might like my focus more than her 4s. In her words, you can't customize the iPhone, and it's boring.

I think 3/4 of the reason Apple did so well was because their only competition was a non-intuative laggy linux on a phone OS, or an OS that didn't even use a touchscreen (BB). Now that there's a competition (both from WP and Android 4), I'd expect their marketshare to drop a bit.

seebaran said,
Projections my fanny. This isn't happening and I love my WP dearly. People are in love with their iOS and Android devices.

Is your fanny American or British?

greenwizard88 said,

You'd be surprised. My girlfriend was waiting since highschool for the iPhone on Verizon. She's had the 4s for less than a year now, and last night told me she thinks she might like my focus more than her 4s. In her words, you can't customize the iPhone, and it's boring.

I think 3/4 of the reason Apple did so well was because their only competition was a non-intuative laggy linux on a phone OS, or an OS that didn't even use a touchscreen (BB). Now that there's a competition (both from WP and Android 4), I'd expect their marketshare to drop a bit.

We still need to hear from the iPhone 5 though. Apple is making some real changes this time around, and if the 4s sold as well as it did being only a hardware refresh with Siri, I'm willing to bet it will sell like hotcakes.

seebaran said,
Projections my fanny. This isn't happening and I love my WP dearly. People are in love with their iOS and Android devices.

you could also say that 4 years ago people loved their blackberries and that is was crazy that android would be a big deal, could you not?

Lachlan said,

you could also say that 4 years ago people loved their blackberries and that is was crazy that android would be a big deal, could you not?

You could say that after a 20 months on the market, a hardware AND a software refresh that Windows smartphone market share has DECREASED to 2.2% from 2.6% over the past year.

You could also say that after 20 months at market Android already had over 20% market share.

You could say those statements, because they are true.

seebaran said,
Projections my fanny. This isn't happening and I love my WP dearly. People are in love with their iOS and Android devices.
I've turned a good many of them when they get to use my Titan. If WP8 delivers feature parity I think it's doable.

alwaysonacoffebreak said,
As much as I'd like that, no, that won't happen.

I agree, even Microsoft doesn't have enough money to force WP to be the number two mobile OS...

alwaysonacoffebreak said,
As much as I'd like that, no, that won't happen.

True. IDC seems to be partly acquired by Microsoft, because the sky is always more than blue for this company (regarding Windows Phone) when IDC speaks.
Smells like Fox News of the tech world.

alwaysonacoffebreak said,
As much as I'd like that, no, that won't happen.

If Windows 8 is a success, it will happen. Windows Phone may be unfamiliar to many now, but by next year it will be instantly recognizable. Add in any improvements Windows Phone 8 brings later this year, and it might just get interesting.

In the year 2016, Windows 8 will have been out for 4 years and we'll likely be using Windows 9 and Windows Phone 11.

alwaysonacoffebreak said,
As much as I'd like that, no, that won't happen.

True... and the funny part is its beating Iphone... Iphone has a strong fanbase and its hard to even make people jump Apple ship...

rfirth said,

If Windows 8 is a success, it will happen. Windows Phone may be unfamiliar to many now, but by next year it will be instantly recognizable. Add in any improvements Windows Phone 8 brings later this year, and it might just get interesting.

In the year 2016, Windows 8 will have been out for 4 years and we'll likely be using Windows 9 and Windows Phone 11.


why would WP be a success if windows 8 is a success... windows 7 was a huge success did it make wp7.5 a huge success??
lets say we take ur words but the problem is "if windows 8 is a success". with all the windows 8 hatred going around it wont go the extend windows 7 did.

still1 said,

why would WP be a success if windows 8 is a success... windows 7 was a huge success did it make wp7.5 a huge success??
lets say we take ur words but the problem is "if windows 8 is a success". with all the windows 8 hatred going around it wont go the extend windows 7 did.

WP is helped by Windows 8 because unlike with Win7 they now share UIs and also Win8 will have a big footprint in tablets. Consumers are going mobile, people with a iPhone ended up getting a iPad and vice versa. If you like one product the chances you buy the other in the same family go up.

alwaysonacoffebreak said,
As much as I'd like that, no, that won't happen.

Maybe it won't be #2 but I see it gaining a bigger chunk of the pie for sure. WP8 should kickstart things on the back of all the new Win8 hardware that will hit the market later this year. Sharing the same UI is the key, also WP8s broader support of hardware makes it more flexible for the OEMs and they love that stuff.

Expect to see even companies like HTC offering WP8 devices next to Windows RT tablets for example.

still1 said,

why would WP be a success if windows 8 is a success... windows 7 was a huge success did it make wp7.5 a huge success??
lets say we take ur words but the problem is "if windows 8 is a success". with all the windows 8 hatred going around it wont go the extend windows 7 did.

Because Win7 is nothing like WP7. Win8 and WP8 + XBox will all share a common UI. That's why.

GP007 said,

WP is helped by Windows 8 because unlike with Win7 they now share UIs and also Win8 will have a big footprint in tablets. Consumers are going mobile, people with a iPhone ended up getting a iPad and vice versa. If you like one product the chances you buy the other in the same family go up.


with all win 8 hatred going on I would say it would be hard

still1 said,

with all win 8 hatred going on I would say it would be hard

The Win8 hatred on here has been for the desktop, I'm talking mobile devices like tablets mostly. Everyone agrees, even the desktop win8 haters, that win8 on a touch device is great.

GP007 said,

The Win8 hatred on here has been for the desktop, I'm talking mobile devices like tablets mostly. Everyone agrees, even the desktop win8 haters, that win8 on a touch device is great.


I agree.. but back to the topic.. beating iOS is far from reach atm.

still1 said,

with all win 8 hatred going on I would say it would be hard

Windows 8 hatred on here is not from the average consumer either, Tech forum/news website regulars are mainly going to be nerds, people who have a good awareness of windows phone already. Windows 8 will bring the metro UI to a larger audience, and if they like it on one of their devices they will be much more likely to be drawn to it from a smartphone standpoint.

But regarding the article, it does seem far-fetched.

still1 said,

I agree.. but back to the topic.. beating iOS is far from reach atm.

FYI, WP has already surpassed iphone in some countries one being Finland. If iphone and ios remain relatively stagnant, especially UI-wise, this is certainly within the realm of probability.

MFH said,

I agree, even Microsoft doesn't have enough money to force WP to be the number two mobile OS...
While I agree with you. The platform is compelling. We'll see if it's feature parity+ with WP8. Money + A solid product could do it.

I've had WP7.5 now since Oct last year. I can say that save a few quirks and apps it is hands down better than an iPhone. If they can deliver on quirks with WP8 and with Win8 land tons of great apps (Win8 and WP8 can share codebases etc. so developers will be everywhere). It can happen.

still1 said,

with all win 8 hatred going on I would say it would be hard
"The squeaky wheel gets the grease." The reason for this is because a big part of the people who will like it have never even heard of it yet.