Jolla chairman: We are the third mobile OS

A few days ago, the latest figures from industry analysts IDC showed that, as far the worldwide smartphone market goes, nothing much has changed recently. Android has extended its lead to take 84.7% of the market, Apple is a distant second with 11.7% share, and Microsoft remains far behind in third place with just 2.5%. 

BlackBerry, meanwhile, has completely imploded when it comes to market share - having sold just 1.5 million devices last quarter around the world, it now has just 0.5% of the worldwide market, putting it in an emphatic fourth place. But all the other various platforms - small or niche operating systems that run on devices which sell in tiny numbers - are all bundled together into one category: "Others."

Finnish company Jolla - created by a team of former Nokia employees - is in that latter category. Its Jolla Phone - which runs its in-house Sailfish OS - sells in such limited quantities that even BlackBerry looks popular by comparison. And yet, as Forbes reports, Jolla chairman Antti Saarnio apparently believes that the company is doing far better than it is. 

Saarnio recently attended the launch of the Jolla Phone on the Three network in Hong Kong, as the company slowly expands its international presence. "A wise man said nine months ago that the third mobile operating system is coming any day now," he said. "That man was Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man. As Jolla launches today the Jolla smartphone with Hutchison Telecommunications, I claim that the day is today." 

If you had to read that a couple of times, you're not alone - yes, Saarnio did seriously suggest that Jolla is the third mobile ecosystem. Not Windows Phone, not BlackBerry, but Jolla. 

Until recently, Jolla's only carrier partnerships were in Finland, Estonia and Kazakhstan - not exactly world-defining markets. But the company clearly has big ambitions, despite its modest sales, and its partnership with Three in Hong Kong is strategically significant: "Hong Kong is a natural place to start with Three," Saarnio explained. "It is their home market, but they are also a global company so this launch can be a great stepping stone for Jolla to ramp up in additional markets."

Big ambitions are one thing; reality is quite another, of course - and the reality is that Jolla is very, very far from catching up with Windows Phone to take third place in the race for mobile supremacy. Indeed, it's evidently still quite far behind BlackBerry in fourth. 

Nonetheless, Jolla clearly has big plans, and its launch in Hong ‚ÄčKong will be an important step in realizing its future potential, and more markets will see the device later this year too. The Jolla Phone will be available via Three in Hong Kong, free on premium contracts, or 2888 HKD (around $370 USD / €280 EUR) off-contract. 

Source: Forbes via MyNokiaBlog | Image via Jolla

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This from the very same management team that trashed Nokia. Their management skills took the world's number one mobile phone company and drove it into the ground. The damage they did was so bad it had to be saved from ignominity by Microsoft.

Here in China they say of people like this "they too much adjust their hats while standing under the plum tree". The Chinese say this because there's no word in Mandarin for "dickheads".

To all those claiming WP doesn't have enough momentum to be the 3rd ecosystem: The competition between Android, iOS and WP started with WP8, not WP7. If you observe, the rate of new apps/games entering the Store is increasing, and will increase even more because of Universal apps. WP will reach 4% by 2016, if the current trend continues.

Can someone tell this fool that in order to be the third mobile OS you have to have more than 0.01% market share!!?!

I liked Moblin and MeeGo, I'm excited to see what happens with Jolla and their Sailfish OS...I still use MeeGo icons on my Android/Apple devices.

There have been some rumours here in Finland that Nokia might actually come back with MeeGo based phones (they've been hiring Android devs etc.). You never know, maybe Jolla will have some sort of future too. Although I'm happy with my current WP and I really hope it will still exist in the near future.

He could be right in a few years. Sailfish is, technically, extremely well-built. It'll run well and easily on a lot of hardware. The compatibility with Android apps is very nice to begin with, the UI looks great and the user interaction patterns they use are very smart.

If they do their launch in Europe right they might have a real chance. I've been wanting to try Sailfish out for months now ever since I heard they were going to continue where Nokia left off with MeeGo (which was pretty great on the Nokia N9 that would later become the Lumia 800).

Ambroos said,
He could be right in a few years. Sailfish is, technically, extremely well-built. .

No it isn't. It's a hacked together version of an unfinished MeeGo. Technically, it's better than Android. But nowhere near as solid internally as WP or even iOS.

Taking in care that the one who was third before has collapsed. It's time to bring Metro 2.0, the current one is nice but improvements are always welcome

daniel_rh said,
It's time to bring Metro 2.0, the current one is nice but improvements are always welcome

The current metro experience on WP is fine, it's the marketplace that is horrid and will run people off.

I lasted 9 months with a Lumia 1520 but really I just couldn't take it anymore, the only apps i could ever rely on were the microsoft and nokia apps, the rest were garbage.

In all honesty, I have yet to find an app on android worth paying for either.


Order_66 said,

The current metro experience on WP is fine, it's the marketplace that is horrid and will run people off.

I lasted 9 months with a Lumia 1520 but really I just couldn't take it anymore, the only apps i could ever rely on were the microsoft and nokia apps, the rest were garbage.

NastySasquatch said,
In all honesty, I have yet to find an app on android worth paying for either.

The only android apps I ever paid for was with the $50 promotion google was offering back when i got the nexus 4, otherwise I wouldn't buy any apps either lol
But on WP I at least expect a free app to function or else it shouldn't even be on the market, google has some bad apps too but the necessary ones function without much trouble, at least in my experience.

Only like a third of the android apps I've ever downloaded have worked. That might be pushing it. I'll admit though I've only owned tablets and other types; not phones. No android phone maker has put one out that I could use easily. Even my Lumia 1520 is a little small for me.

I think the market is wide open for a third ecosystem. After all, no single 'other' OS has a major presence yet. Windows Phone at 2.5% is really no different than all the rest. Anything below 4% is in the 'other' category to me. That leaves Jolla, Firefox OS, and Ubuntu Phone plenty of room to become the third ecosystem, as no one has claimed it yet.

I like the look of all three. I hope one of them can build enough marketshare (4%+) to push into the third ecosystem category. It's all to play for at the moment.

simplezz said,
I think the market is wide open for a third ecosystem. After all, no single 'other' OS has a major presence yet. Windows Phone at 2.5% is really no different than all the rest. Anything below 4% is in the 'other' category to me.

Come off it already! Have you had some puff and pass with the Jolla dude? WP is doing OK in most markets except North America.
Anyways all those operating systems you talk about will encounter the same problems windows phone has had. No apps, poor carrier support, no killer hardware, low marketing budgets e.t.c. if Microsoft, Sumsung (Tizen) and BlackBerry are struggling to make a splash don't expect Jolla to make it big. I pose a question to you. Do you own a Jolla phone? Or intend to buy one in the near future? Once you answer that question you will be closer to understanding the problems Jolla has before it can even become the 5th ecosystem.

More likely for BB to become 3rd again. Either way, it is good to be positive about what you produce no matter where you are at in the rankings. Having confidence is something that persuades individuals to purchase your product, and investors to invest.

Considering WP is going backwards it won't be hard for Jolla to get to third if they do things right. Jolla just have to produce something that people want, thats the problem with Windows Phone, most people don't want it.

derekaw said,
Considering WP is going backwards it won't be hard for Jolla to get to third if they do things right.

Blackberry is going backward. Windows Phone had a 1 quarter slump.

Jolla is going to have a hard time even getting to 4th place ahead of Blackberry. Samsung can't even get Tizen going. How are these guys supposed to get Jolla off the ground in any significant way?

rfirth said,

Blackberry is going backward. Windows Phone had a 1 quarter slump.

Jolla is going to have a hard time even getting to 4th place ahead of Blackberry. Samsung can't even get Tizen going. How are these guys supposed to get Jolla off the ground in any significant way?

Tizen is not even out the door and working on any phones yet, Tizen may be a hit with Samsung behind it.

People don't like Windows Phone much, its looking like a big huge flop right now. Is it a marketing issue? A features issue? An Apps issue? A problem with carrier staff not recommending it? I think that people don't like it much, they don't like the design of the OS, they don't want flashy 'Glance and Go' tiles and they don't want endless lists of text to scroll through.

If Jolla can give people what they are looking for, perhaps something more like Android and iOS, then I think that Jolla has a really good chance. These are ex Nokia people, they know what they are doing.

A single down quarter at the end of a generation of hardware before a new generation has really hit the market does not mean WP is going backward. It may still go backwards, but this one data point is not enough to make that claim.

hagjohn said,
Not one person, that I have shown my Nokia 1020 to, has said that they didn't like my phone.

Perhaps they were just being polite? Besides, seeing something is a completely different prospect to using it day in day out. I think the marketshare loss WP suffered this quarter illustrates that it's not resonating with consumers.

pallentx said,
A single down quarter at the end of a generation of hardware before a new generation has really hit the market does not mean WP is going backward. It may still go backwards, but this one data point is not enough to make that claim.

WP has lost marketshare in two distinct quarters. And this quarter, it even shrank in units sold. That's not a good sign for a platform. But then again, WP has been on the market for 4 years now without any significant impact. It might be time for Microsoft to rethink its strategy.

derekaw said,

Tizen is not even out the door and working on any phones yet, Tizen may be a hit with Samsung behind it.

You clearly have no clue. Samsung has suspended indefinitely the launch of their Tizen phone which was delayed 3 times. They have now said enough is enough and shelved the thing.

pallentx said,
A single down quarter at the end of a generation of hardware before a new generation has really hit the market does not mean WP is going backward. It may still go backwards, but this one data point is not enough to make that claim.

With recent numbers people at Microsoft must be losing sleep about the beleaguered platform.

blackhove said,

You clearly have no clue. Samsung has suspended indefinitely the launch of their Tizen phone which was delayed 3 times. They have now said enough is enough and shelved the thing.

I knew it was delayed again, I did not know it was scrapped. Be nice please.

hagjohn said,
People do not know why they should have a windows phone.

Very true for most people... but I think those sample people also do not know why they should have an Andorid or and iPhone.

The market that has yet to be acquired (which is more than the market that presently exists) will be led more by cost I suspect.

simplezz said,

WP has lost marketshare in two distinct quarters. And this quarter, it even shrank in units sold. That's not a good sign for a platform. But then again, WP has been on the market for 4 years now without any significant impact. It might be time for Microsoft to rethink its strategy.

They are rethinking strategy. As you can see, more OEMs are on board now. OS updates are rolling out faster. Universal apps are great, and apps are coming out more frequently with updates and release time is going from long wait and praying for a WP version after iOS/Android version comes out to expecting a WP release within a shorter time frame.

So it's not all doom and gloom like you make it out to be. Taking one plot point does not conclude anything, or I'd say Linux is dead after it goes from its 0.2% market share to 0.1%.

Enron said,

They are rethinking strategy. As you can see, more OEMs are on board now. OS updates are rolling out faster. Universal apps are great, and apps are coming out more frequently with updates and release time is going from long wait and praying for a WP version after iOS/Android version comes out to expecting a WP release within a shorter time frame.

So it's not all doom and gloom like you make it out to be. Taking one plot point does not conclude anything, or I'd say Linux is dead after it goes from its 0.2% market share to 0.1%.

How will any of this help with sales? Why do you think WP a is not selling how does this reverse that? What will make a 'normal' person get a Windows Phone now?

derekaw said,

How will any of this help with sales? Why do you think WP a is not selling how does this reverse that? What will make a 'normal' person get a Windows Phone now?

Depends on what market you're talking about.

derekaw said,
Considering WP is going backwards it won't be hard for Jolla to get to third if they do things right. Jolla just have to produce something that people want, thats the problem with Windows Phone, most people don't want it.

Nah most people just get the phone the salesperson hands them. I've had several friends that sold cellphones. This is how they make their money.

derekaw said,

Tizen is not even out the door and working on any phones yet, Tizen may be a hit with Samsung behind it.

People don't like Windows Phone much, its looking like a big huge flop right now. Is it a marketing issue? A features issue? An Apps issue? A problem with carrier staff not recommending it? I think that people don't like it much, they don't like the design of the OS, they don't want flashy 'Glance and Go' tiles and they don't want endless lists of text to scroll through.

If Jolla can give people what they are looking for, perhaps something more like Android and iOS, then I think that Jolla has a really good chance. These are ex Nokia people, they know what they are doing.


There's no problems with the interface, you're barking up entirely the wrong tree.

The interface is fantastic and we've been handing out Windows Phones at work with no complaints at all about the interface. And this is a workplace with a lot of fussy people.

I think where WP isn't succeeding is at the moment there is a lack of range, a lack of developers onboard with the platform, an app platform going through a fair bit of changes, a few babies thrown out with the bathwater in terms of social integration with contacts in the 8.1 update. Plus a few things around the edges with features on the phone.

Another issue is that despite being called "Windows Phone" it doesn't have the kind of integration you'd expect it to have with enterprise Microsoft systems. Integration is virtually non-existent. It should be there in abundance!

"That man was Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man. As Jolla launches today the Jolla smartphone with Hutchison Telecommunications, I claim that the day is today."

Guys, guys, he never said he ment Jolla, he actualy ment Windows Phone. :p

Its true... You have major OS like Android, Apple, and WP. Then you have struggling ones like Firefox OS, BB, and even Tizen. Then you have dumbphones and Jolla... ;)

Scabrat said,
Its true... You have major OS like Android, Apple, and WP. Then you have struggling ones like Firefox OS, BB, and even Tizen. Then you have dumbphones and Jolla... ;)

WP?

-adrian- said,
Yes.. you know.. the one ranked second in market share across different markets

Never heard of it. It must be in the 'others' category :D

simplezz said,

Never heard of it. It must be in the 'others' category :D

In Europe and all other continents excluding north American it's above 10% and leads the iPhone in some Markets. Or does the rest of the world not count and it's only North America that matters?

-adrian- said,
Yes.. you know.. the one ranked second in market share across different markets

It was in the sentence 'major OS like Android, Apple and WP'

At this point WP is hardly a 'major OS'

blackhove said,

In Europe and all other continents excluding north American it's above 10% and leads the iPhone in some Markets. Or does the rest of the world not count and it's only North America that matters?

Not in Australia.

Reports show that where WP is in higher numbers in Europe its the dirt cheap low end phones that are selling. These people just want a cheap phone to make calls and I'd suggest that they probably don't even know its a Windows Phone, these people have no brand loyalty, they don't use the ecosystem and they don't buy apps.

Nowhere is the world are flagship Windows Phones selling well.

blackhove said,

In Europe and all other continents excluding north American it's above 10% and leads the iPhone in some Markets. Or does the rest of the world not count and it's only North America that matters?

Of course it matters. You should also mention countries where it's non-existent then.

blackhove said,

In Europe and all other continents excluding north American it's above 10%

I'm sorry but it's not. In Germany for instance, the largest European economy, it's at less than 5%. In fact, at only 7.X million units shipped this quarter, it's physically impossible for WP to be anywhere near that. You're probably making the mistake of taking tiny eastern european countries (by population), and tallying them up. It's total number of sales.

blackhove said,

leads the iPhone in some Markets.

So does Blackberry. Point is, those "Markets" are tiny compared with western Europe, North America, and China. Look at the units sold this quarter. It's tiny and shrinking.

blackhove said,

Or does the rest of the world not count and it's only North America that matters?

Again, it's total numbers sold, not individual %'s in some random country.

simplezz said,

I'm sorry but it's not. In Germany for instance, the largest European economy, it's at less than 5%. In fact, at only 7.X million units shipped this quarter, it's physically impossible for WP to be anywhere near that. You're probably making the mistake of taking tiny eastern european countries (by population), and tallying them up. It's total number of sales.


So does Blackberry. Point is, those "Markets" are tiny compared with western Europe, North America, and China. Look at the units sold this quarter. It's tiny and shrinking.


Again, it's total numbers sold, not individual %'s in some random country.

German is not Europe. It's in Europe but it's not even half or a quarter of the population of Europe. What's your point.

derekaw said,

Reports show that where WP is in higher numbers in Europe its the dirt cheap low end phones that are selling. These people just want a cheap phone to make calls and I'd suggest that they probably don't even know its a Windows Phone, these people have no brand loyalty, they don't use the ecosystem and they don't buy apps.

Nowhere is the world are flagship Windows Phones selling well.

So? Is this about the demographics of buyers or what windows phone is a viable 3rd ecosystem? Even if windows is being given free and no one buys apps the point is it's the 3rd ecosystem as things stand today, Not Jolla.
Learn to stay on point and don't your emotions I.e hate for everything Microsoft blind you.

blackhove said,

In Europe and all other continents excluding north American it's above 10% and leads the iPhone in some Markets. Or does the rest of the world not count and it's only North America that matters?

Only when it fits their agenda. Globally, iOS market share is dropping even though sales are up. iOS is like the kid trying to be cool when big bad Android is picking on the little kid (WP).. pretty soon iOS is going to be sub 5% global market too.

Maybe then iOS and WP can fight over who gets Android's leftovers.

Scabrat said,
You have major OS like Android, Apple, and WP

One of these doesn't belong here :D

In case some of you haven't heard Windows Phone global market share is SHRINKING, its now down to 2.5%. What difference does it make if it has decent numbers in a tiny country no one can pronounce, globally/overall, WP market is shrinking. The shrinking is due to declining sales, so unlike Apple's iPhone whose market share is getting smaller based simply on the fact Android sales continue to skyrocket, not that iPhone sales are declining because iPhone sales are increasing while Windows Phones are not, they are decreasing.

http://forums.wpcentral.com/wi...rinks-just-2-5-percent.html

derekaw said,

Not in Australia.

Reports show that where WP is in higher numbers in Europe its the dirt cheap low end phones that are selling. These people just want a cheap phone to make calls and I'd suggest that they probably don't even know its a Windows Phone, these people have no brand loyalty, they don't use the ecosystem and they don't buy apps.

Nowhere is the world are flagship Windows Phones selling well.

There hasn't actually been a true windows flagship phone yet.

Sonne said,

One of these doesn't belong here :D

In case some of you haven't heard Windows Phone global market share is SHRINKING, its now down to 2.5%. What difference does it make if it has decent numbers in a tiny country no one can pronounce, globally/overall, WP market is shrinking. The shrinking is due to declining sales, so unlike Apple's iPhone whose market share is getting smaller based simply on the fact Android sales continue to skyrocket, not that iPhone sales are declining because iPhone sales are increasing while Windows Phones are not, they are decreasing.

http://forums.wpcentral.com/wi...rinks-just-2-5-percent.html

A quick google search on "graph of iPhone sales" shows you that iPhones sales ebb and flow based on when new phones are released. And, so does their market share.

Add to that that not many new WP came out in that quarter AND no flagship for quiet sometime and we see the apparent reason behind the drop.

Also, the figures where in sales, not users of the phone. What a surprise... No one bought new phones because there were no new phones...

Lets see how Q3 and Q4 turn out. Projections from people who are experts and make there living are projecting continued growth for WP.

Oh yeah, let me throw out these numbers too... 18.3, 16.6, 13.0, and 11.7. What are those? iOS Q2 market share for the last 4 years... Maybe iOS isnt a major OS either...

http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp

Scabrat said,

Add to that that not many new WP came out in that quarter AND no flagship for quiet sometime and we see the apparent reason behind the drop.

I'm sorry but that's irrelevant. If you took a look at the sales breakdown for Windows Phone, you'd see that the majority of them are cheap 520's and the like, not flagships. In actual fact, high-end is the worst category for WP sales. So no, a new 'flagship' phone isn't going to help Microsoft sell more.

Apple on the other hand lives and breathes high-end high-margin flagships like the iPhone. That's the difference. Android also sells a hell of a lot of high-end flagships.

The only way Microsoft is going to get more marketshare is by ramping up its dumping of cheap low-margin Lumia's onto Asian and European markets. But that's never going to be a profitable business. It just means people will associate Windows Phone with cheap and nasty junk hardware.

Scabrat said,

Also, the figures where in sales, not users of the phone. What a surprise... No one bought new phones because there were no new phones...

When someone buys a low-end device like a Lumia 520, they often don't even know what it's running. They buy it because it's cheap. Markets like India and Asia especially.

And there's absolutely no brand loyalty at that level either. That's probably one of the reasons why Microsoft shipped less units this quarter.

Scabrat said,

Lets see how Q3 and Q4 turn out. Projections from people who are experts and make there living are projecting continued growth for WP.

You mean like IDC, who predicted that WP would be at 19% in 2015? More like guessperts. than experts. Did any of them predict that WP would lose marketshare? No. They always predict growth. And why not. At 2%, the only way is up.

Scabrat said,

Oh yeah, let me throw out these numbers too... 18.3, 16.6, 13.0, and 11.7. What are those? iOS Q2 market share for the last 4 years... Maybe iOS isnt a major OS either...

iOS is a single OEM OS. Android and WP are multi-OEM. Apple can't hope to keep up in marketshare while it offers such a limited range. Still, they're shifting more units every quarter in concert with the growth of the market as a whole. That's not bad really.

Scabrat said,

A quick google search on "graph of iPhone sales" shows you that iPhones sales ebb and flow based on when new phones are released. And, so does their market share.

Except when you look at iPhone sales you will see that every year they increase considerably,

-Q3 2014 - 35+ million sold compared to Q3 2013 - 31+ million sold
-Q2 2014 - 43+ million sold compared to Q2 2013 - 37+ million sold
-Q1 2014 - 51+ million sold compared to Q1 2013 - 47+ million sold

and this trend goes all the way to the iPhones inception, every year they sell more and more devices and are making a killing financially. WP sales are shrinking and they are losing money...Do you see the difference? Apple isn't competing for market share, they are competing for money and currently are doing very well. Only one company makes the iPhone and it sells more units than all of the OEM's behind Windows Phone put together. Microsoft is a software company they depend on market share.

simplezz said,

I'm sorry but that's irrelevant. If you took a look at the sales breakdown for Windows Phone, you'd see that the majority of them are cheap 520's and the like, not flagships. In actual fact, high-end is the worst category for WP sales. So no, a new 'flagship' phone isn't going to help Microsoft sell more.

The only way Microsoft is going to get more marketshare is by ramping up its dumping of cheap low-margin Lumia's onto Asian and European markets. But that's never going to be a profitable business. It just means people will associate Windows Phone with cheap and nasty junk hardware.

WP and Android have a very similar breakdown of low end sales. 58.66% low end Android vs. 61.4% low end WP. Within the margin of error, that's pretty much equal.

Also, the low end WPs run so much better than the low end Androids, it's not even funny. They also run the latest version of WP unlike the Androids you find with an old version of the OS.

simplezz said,

iOS is a single OEM OS. Android and WP are multi-OEM. Apple can't hope to keep up in marketshare while it offers such a limited range. Still, they're shifting more units every quarter in concert with the growth of the market as a whole. That's not bad really.

Well, for Q2 WP was basically a single OEM OS...

neonspark said,
well, optimism never killed anybody lol.

Exactly, look at all the endless optimism here about Windows Phone. Thats been going on for 4 years and Windows Phone is going backwards.

derekaw said,

Exactly, look at all the endless optimism here about Windows Phone. Thats been going on for 4 years and Windows Phone is going backwards.

This ^^

And how anybody can claim WP is the third ecosystem, I don't know. 2% isn't a third ecosystem, it's the 'other' category. A platform needs at least 4% in my book to become a third ecosystem. It also needs momentum, something Windows Phone has never really had despite all the billions Microsoft pumps into it.

A spot for a third ecosystem is wide open in my opinion. Perhaps Jolla can fill it. Competition is good after all.

simplezz said,

This ^^

And how anybody can claim WP is the third ecosystem, I don't know. 2% isn't a third ecosystem, it's the 'other' category.

This reminds me of the Iraqi propaganda minister who said "we are winning the war, we have pushed the Americans and British back". If he had cared to look over his shoulder , in full camera view he would have seen American tanks rolling straight into the heart of Baghdad. Needless to say he was the first of Saddam's officials to get caught and put on trial. Ha ha.

simplezz said,

I don't know. 2% isn't a third ecosystem,

Global market share is the maybe the simplest but perhaps one of the worst measures of how a company is progressing over time. All it really measures is the current situation against past trends. That data alone will give very poor if not useless projections.

To even begin to try to understand the potential of any company you'd have need to look at hundreds of details. Based on the childlike statistics used by most of these sites it would have been impossible for Apple to even get any of the market in the first place.

lt8480 said,

Based on the childlike statistics used by most of these sites it would have been impossible for Apple to even get any of the market in the first place.

The point is that both Apple/iOS and Android did get ahead and Microsoft Windows Phone did not.

People just don't like Windows Phone much, if they did then it would sell better. If Jolla gives people what they are looking for then it has a really good chance.

I'm not suggesting for a minute that Windows Phone will take the market by storm any time soon... but if the phone market and the technology market has taught us anything it is that the market is extremely volatile as it shifts rapidly.

My concern from a business point of view is that it's business 101 not to have more than half of your business in one sector, unless you are completely sure of that sector. I'm not sure anyone in the technology sector can be *that* sure.

The phone market it particular has never been very secure and the iPhone accounts for most of Apple's business. If iPhone sales and profits start to dive and nothing replaces it, then Apple will shrink considerably or worse in no time.

Look at the competition...

The reason Google even makes Android is that it's another platform to complement and support their core business, it helps them control that market completely which is very profitable, android itself doesn't really make that much money.

Similarly Microsoft's intentions for pushing a phone is to integrate it with other services they provide and markets within which they are very strong.

The iPhone supports most of the business that Apple carries out, and they don't even control the market with it. Sure Apple can survive without it, but what form that company takes I'm not sure.

I'm not saying for a moment that any of the above will happen, particularly in the next year or so. But from a strategic point of view Apple at present do not appear to have a business that has any room for failure. Whilst many "one liner" tech companies are still going strong its because they shift and move rapidly when technology shifts - this something Apple will have do to survive in the long term or continue to lead those shifts, if they can't do that they risk becoming one of the many companies that get confined to the history books..

simplezz said,

This ^^

And how anybody can claim WP is the third ecosystem, I don't know. 2% isn't a third ecosystem, it's the 'other' category. A platform needs at least 4% in my book to become a third ecosystem. It also needs momentum, something Windows Phone has never really had despite all the billions Microsoft pumps into it.

A spot for a third ecosystem is wide open in my opinion. Perhaps Jolla can fill it. Competition is good after all.

Competition is good, as long as it isn't M$, because you want them to die, right?

If/when WP hits 4%, I will expect you to be silent. Hitting 4% would also satisfy your second qualifier, momentum, since it would need momentum to accomplish 4%.

If WP fails? I'll get one of these Jolly phones.

Enron said,

Competition is good, as long as it isn't M$, because you want them to die, right?

Damn, you've seen right through my dastardly master-plan. Now where did I put that Death-Ray again...

Enron said,

If/when WP hits 4%

Confidence in the face of overwhelming and contradictory evidence. Impressive ;)

Enron said,

I will expect you to be silent. Hitting 4% would also satisfy your second qualifier, momentum, since it would need momentum to accomplish 4%.

We all know that's not going to happen at this point. But I'll indulge the premise.

Yes, at least it would start being a credible third ecosystem at that point. Obviously, it would also require continued growth in order for it to meet the momentum condition. 4% is the absolute minimum for me. Let's hope Jolla, Ubuntu Phone, or Firefox OS can achieve that growth. WP has had its chance in my estimation. If a Mobile OS can't get to 4% in Four/Five years, then I don't think it'll ever succeed. I could be wrong of course, only time will tell.

Enron said,

If WP fails? I'll get one of these Jolly phones.

If? I thought it already had. I mean, didn't Microsoft hold some kind of faux funeral for the iPhone because they expected it to wipe the floor with it? stuck at 2% after four years on the market looks like a failure to me.

Edited by simplezz, Aug 19 2014, 11:00pm :

simplezz said,

This ^^

And how anybody can claim WP is the third ecosystem, I don't know. 2% isn't a third ecosystem, it's the 'other' category. A platform needs at least 4% in my book to become a third ecosystem. It also needs momentum, something Windows Phone has never really had despite all the billions Microsoft pumps into it.

A spot for a third ecosystem is wide open in my opinion. Perhaps Jolla can fill it. Competition is good after all.

If they were at 4% you'd probably say they need to be at 10%.

Nashy said,

If they were at 4% you'd probably say they need to be at 10%.

It's all about credibility. There's really no clear delineation. At 4%, there's then quite a large gap between it and the rest. As it stands, 2% is neither here nor there. So Microsoft's self-proclamation as the third ecosystem is just that. No one else formally recognises that position, therefore it has no legitimacy.

Firefox OS, Jolla, Ubuntu Phone, and WP are all in the same category. I'd probably hedge my bet with Firefox because it has started to get some traction on the low end. I'd like to see Jolla and Ubuntu succeed as well, but there can only be one third ecosystem.

I thought maybe it's meant to be third OS with outdated UI standards, but even then I guess it's behind many others.

"A wise man said nine months ago that the third mobile operating system is coming any day now,"

They get a carrier partnership in one small market that is already saturated with similar deals and that's them set. Boastful statements without a rational backing are desperate.