Microsoft CEO: Vista Forecasts Too Aggressive

Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said Thursday analysts' forecasts for revenue from Windows Vista in fiscal 2008 were "overly aggressive." Ballmer's comments come two weeks after the world's largest software maker released Vista, the upgrade to its ubiquitous Windows operating system, and predicted that consumers will move to Vista faster than past Windows upgrades. In a strategy presentation to analysts, Ballmer said Vista will create a "small surge" in PC sales in fiscal 2008, but would not spur a big increase over normal growth rates.

"Some of the revenue models and revenue forecasts I've seen out there for Windows Vista are overly aggressive," said Ballmer. "I don't think that much new money will race out of the consumers pockets into PCs." In January, Microsoft made available Windows Vista after more than five years of development and numerous delays. Windows runs on more than 95 percent of the world's computers and represents the company's biggest profit driver. The Windows franchise is the centerpiece of Microsoft's business, because the company makes more than 75 cents in operating profit for every dollar of sales. The cash flow generated by Windows allows Microsoft to make investments in new business like digital music players and online services.

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News source: CRN

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What if you spent billions of dollars and five years developing a product that very few people actually wanted?

Remember that MS developed Vista TWICE. The first time was an abysmal choke and they had to start all over again a couple of years ago. Fortunately, MS has the cash reserves to eat that, take the loss, and start over again. Good for them. But what that doesn't give them is the right to double charge US for their screw up.

Vista (Ultimate) is the ONLY version of Vista that should have been released, as a $100 upgrade to XP Pro, or $200 retail version. Everything else is Vista- crippleware, period.

PS They did do a great job with the new Office 2007 though. The ribbon really rocks and they should extend it throughout the product suite.

That's exactly right but unfortunately it's the way it is. Vista was a train wreck from the moment it was conceived. It's a very disappointing release. I think a home and a pro version would have been better.

Office rocks.

excalpius said,
Remember that MS developed Vista TWICE. The first time was an abysmal choke and they had to start all over again a couple of years ago. Fortunately, MS has the cash reserves to eat that, take the loss, and start over again. Good for them. But what that doesn't give them is the right to double charge US for their screw up.

Vista (Ultimate) is the ONLY version of Vista that should have been released, as a $100 upgrade to XP Pro, or $200 retail version. Everything else is Vista- crippleware, period.

PS They did do a great job with the new Office 2007 though. The ribbon really rocks and they should extend it throughout the product suite.

Actually they didn't drop Vista's first development track because it was an abysmal failure, it was dropped because of their new commitment to security and knowledge on the subject. In order to create the secure OS that Vista is today many of the other features were pushed back and eventually broke. The amount of time and effort it would have taken to bring these features back into the OS would have pushed it another year or so.

Now, lets look at the differences between Vista Premium and Vista Ultimate; listed are what is available in Ultimate but not in Premium. (resource here):

1. Complete PC Backup
2. Business Networking (i.e. Remote Desktop and Domain Networking)
3. Bitlocker
4. Ultimate Extras

So that list simply doesn't prove to me that Vista Premium is a crippled version of Windows.

1. Complete PC Backup
2. Business Networking (i.e. Remote Desktop and Domain Networking)
3. Bitlocker
4. Ultimate Extras

So that list simply doesn't prove to me that Vista Premium is a crippled version of Windows.

smoke and mirrors

Pesonally, I was way more excited to get XP.

I'm not sure about the price either. On the one hand I feel its fair given the work it takes to make Vista but on the other, many original offerings have been stripped out (like WinFS for one) so the value on the dollar isn't as good as it should be.

Vista Home Premium is the same price that XP Pro was/is, and for the same price you also get Media Center in there, which XP Pro didn't/doesn't have until they released the newer MCE2005 version.

The thing that's holding Vista back are the lack of good hardware drivers, people are running on beta drivers with sucky performence and or bugs that make Vista crash. If people would go back to the first days of Win2k and even XP, they also had a lack of good drivers at the start which held them both back.

When XP was out, everyone said, "boo, it's just a new UI and nothing else, I'm staying with Win2k!" Now the same people turn around and say that vista is "just a new UI and nothing else, I'm staying with WinXP."

It's an endless cycle whenever a new OS comes out until the hardware and software devs finally do their job and code for it like they should.

It's much more than just hardware support that is keeping the Vista numbers down. Even though more and more homes have computers (and boxed retail sales are down 60%! ) , the majority are still for business use. Corporations don't see the benefit (because there really isn't any) to occur the enormous expense of upgrading to Vista. Many companies are still upgrading from 98/NT/2K to XP.

C_Guy said,
Pesonally, I was way more excited to get XP.

Same here. When I went from Win98 to XP, it really was a huge improvement :cool:
The move from XP to Vista, while nice, is nowhere near as big.
Poor driver support and lacking program support from some overly dozy and sluggish companies puts an additional dampener there.

C_Guy said,
I'm not sure about the price either. On the one hand I feel its fair given the work it takes to make Vista but on the other, many original offerings have been stripped out (like WinFS for one) so the value on the dollar isn't as good as it should be.

Since I was clever enough to get Vista Oem, I won't complain about the price

Very interesting. I knew that Ballmer could jump up and down on stage like a monkey and throw chairs like there was no tomorrow, but never knew he could back-peddle so fast.