Microsoft tablet share predicted to grow to 10% by 2017

International Data Corp. has predicted that Microsoft's tablet market share will grow to 10% by 2017, with 7.4% of Windows tablets being "full" Windows 8.

According to IDC, consumers aren't buying Microsoft's "value proposition" with Windows RT which means the platform – which is incompatible with legacy Windows apps – will stay at around 3% market share. Microsoft has currently captured 1% of the tablet market with its Surface tablets, the first of which was released late last year.

Tom Mainelli, manager of IDC's Tablet programme, claimed that Microsoft's decision to produce two Surface variants had "yielded poor results," before continuing "[in the] long term we think Microsoft and its partners would be better served by focusing their attention on improving Windows 8. Such a focus could drive better share growth in the tablet category down the road."

In 2013, Apple's iPad market share is expected to sink to 46% of the tablet market, down from 51% in 2012. Android's share is expected to rise to 49% in 2013, up from 42% in 2012. These numbers are surprising, but can be attributed to the success of Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. Apple announced the iPad Mini in November 2012, to combat the threat from smaller Android tablets. Apple doesn't directly release iPad Mini sales figures, but Apple sold 22.9 million iPad's in Q1 2013.

IDC expects that 190.9 million tablets will be shipped in 2013, up from their previous forecast of 172.4 million. In 2012, tablet shipments grew to 128.3 million units, up 56% from 2011. By 2017, tablet shipments will be upwards of 350 million. 

Source: IDC

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45 Comments

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Microsofts table efforts suck. MS tablets will not be mass market like the iPad and I think that a 10% prediction is very generous.

nah they can compete, they cant properly market themselves. Also they have to deal with the global hatred and prejudgment MS already has. Anything MS releases is automatically hated by a large proportion of people The product itself often seems irrelative.

laserfloyd said,
How the ^@#$ing hell do you predict that crap 4 years into the future? You don't. They're full of ****.

Well they base it on the current market increase, if this continues exactly as it did so far. And MS does not do any additional marketing and people don't change their mind, or if no competitor releases a better tablet...etcetc
they didn't take anything into account besides sliding the graph forward by 4 years based on only current information.

And to think the Surface just started to set an industry standard, not really to be pushed onto the masses like the iPad. Although this vision seems to be shifting.

I thought w8 is the savior for ms and killer of ipad and android tablets. seems like its taking 5 years to get to 10%?? thats really bad.

Ezekiel Carsella said,
it is but looke here these guys are dead wrong.

not will now so i I would take their words instead of yours. i was in market for tablet finally bought Nexus 10. awesome tablet. win Rt is no where close.

If I told you that the Buffalo Bills would win the superbowl in 2017 would you believe me? Right. These analysts are worthless for the most part. I'll believe a 6-12 month prediction but 4? Nope. Pass the joint, bro!

ahoncbt said,

not will now so i I would take their words instead of yours.

Frankly, when talking four years into the future, their word roughly *is* as good as any random commenter.

Another useless and pointless prediction by IDC.

People should seriously start keeping track of their records. Probably equivalent to long term weather predictions.

maxslaterrobins said,
None. That'll be the problem. The goal posts move, but Microsoft doesn't.

In all fairness, you're confused about Microsoft's approach to personal technology.

Wearable computing has been talked about for a long time, but it's never been part of Microsoft's vision for their own product family. They're very big about being surrounded by technology--integrating it with the world around you (every surface is a computer, etc). Wearable computing is about being the technology--taking it with you to use where you want it.

Two very different approaches. One is not inherently worse or more shortsighted than the other. There are only two things we can be sure of:

1. We have no idea what we'll actually wind up with in ten years.
2. Whatever it is, there will be people who hate the company behind it with every fiber of their being.

Joshie said,

They launched SPOT technology, and Fossil was one of the first to market with an implementation of it, but it was never a "wearable computing" technology so much as an "information anywhere" technology.

This is quite debatable; by 2004 standards and technologies capabilities was considered as such.
On the other hand, for example, I personally do not consider iPads and similar devices "True" Tablet devices, other people do so undoubtedly the categorization of devices nowadays has become more and more subjective and confusing.

IDC is full of ****. their own tablets numbers worldwide from all vendors for q4 2012 = 52.5 million

that means if windows 8 tablets only account for %1, that's only 520,000 tablets. BS.

If you use the predicted number from iSuppli(just look at the name),surface rt alone sold 680,000 to 750,000.

other analysts predicted close to a million. But nobody knows because Microsoft didn't release the numbers.

There are also other windows 8 tablets for sale. Windows 8 tablets didn't show up until the end of the quarter. Surface RT was mostly only sold in Microsoft stores and online for the majority of the quarter. If they were able to squeeze a few percent in that quarter that's is pretty good. Remember,these devices were new to and unknown to the general consumer, limited distribution,and released during the holiday season when the more established devices could be gotten for only a few hundred dollars.

Edited by vcfan, Mar 12 2013, 9:58pm :

using by your logic "iSuppli is full of ****" now just dont ignore **** just because you want to see better numbers.

btw, ms agreed that surface has poor sales so these numbers are accurate because its only Q42012 and the predictions are for 2013 sales. probably surface sales even dropped.

Yeh, Windows RT could have been best seller if it was offered for 299$ a 100$ more than Nexus 7

But as usual, Microsoft never does anything right :-)

Who knows, maybe the next Surface with Tegra 4 perhaps? or by then the new Nexus 10 with Android 5 will make Windows 8 RT look like an old OS? and will be there still for half the price.

Microsoft tried to build a device for two markets, and had too make two devices; which was an error. In the store, people have to choose between two things - both with benefits - against just one for the iPad. That extra thinking - and lack of communication between Microsoft and the consumer - will cost them dearly, especially with Windows RT devices.

john.smith_2084 said,
Yeh, Windows RT could have been best seller if it was offered for 299$ a 100$ more than Nexus 7

But as usual, Microsoft never does anything right :-)

Who knows, maybe the next Surface with Tegra 4 perhaps? or by then the new Nexus 10 with Android 5 will make Windows 8 RT look like an old OS? and will be there still for half the price.

Surface RT costs $284 to make.

vcfan said,

Surface RT costs $284 to make.

it does not matter, Google products cost a lot to make and they still make money
what is the point of spending a billion on TV advertisement when that Billion could have been spent to reduce the price of half a year perhaps

I bought the original Asus Transformer when it came out. I barely use the thing since I do most mobile tasks via my phone. Otherwise, I use my laptop when I am at home. Traveling, I use my netbook...yes, I still have a netbook.

it sounds like we are in agreement that " apple did not define the tablet " as far as a digitizer I can see your point but not all people need this and should not be the determining factor weather a device is a tablet or not..

it will be interesting to see these number broken down by size. the nexus 10 has been a total trainreck whereas the 7 was been a huge success. it may indicate that apple is entrenched in the 10inch category and google has yet again failed to capture this segment after years of trying with various vendors from motorola to Samsung.

however given the flood of OEM windows 8 tablets in 2013, in addition to the release of baytrial and haswell, the windows table marketshare will shoot up as it offers all the x86 apps its competition simply can't match.

The problem with the Nexus 10 was that people who would want one, already have an iPad. That was also the problem with Samsung's efforts, too.

The Nexus 7 was unique, as no-one else had made a 7-8" device until Google did. The fact that it cost basically nothing probably helped sales, too.

Microsoft is in a tricky place as they have to convince those who have an iPad - or are looking for a tablet - to switch/choose Windows 8 over iOS. It definitely doesn't help that they produced two versions - one with severe limitations; one without, but it comes on a much more expensive device - but they'll have to deal with that.

IDC is smoking some good drugs or thinks everyone else is... where do they get their counting from Apple? maybe they forgot that MS currently owns 90+% of the pc industry and that windows 8 makes almost all new laptops a tablet??? and that without doing anything extra MS will sell at lease 320mil windows 8 devices this year?? vs aprox 180 mil total ios and android tablets.. here is a good quote from paul who had a good piece on this today... "IDC had previously issues its expectations for PC sales over the 2013 to 2017 time frame and it may be instructive to see how their predictions for a combined market of PCs and tablets changes over time. Here, I will assume that Windows continues to control about 90 percent of the PC market and use IDC's figures for the rest.

In 2013, PC/device makers will ship a combined 320 million Windows-powered PCs and devices compared to 93 million Android devices and 88 million iPads. By 2017, Windows unit sales grow to about 380 million units many of which can be described as tablets, compared to about 161 million Android devices and 152 million iPads"

Juan Rodriguez said,
IDC is smoking some good drugs or thinks everyone else is... where do they get their counting from Apple? maybe they forgot that MS currently owns 90+% of the pc industry and that windows 8 makes almost all new laptops a tablet??? and that without doing anything extra MS will sell at lease 320mil windows 8 devices this year?? vs aprox 180 mil total ios and android tablets.. here is a good quote from paul who had a good piece on this today... "IDC had previously issues its expectations for PC sales over the 2013 to 2017 time frame and it may be instructive to see how their predictions for a combined market of PCs and tablets changes over time. Here, I will assume that Windows continues to control about 90 percent of the PC market and use IDC's figures for the rest.

In 2013, PC/device makers will ship a combined 320 million Windows-powered PCs and devices compared to 93 million Android devices and 88 million iPads. By 2017, Windows unit sales grow to about 380 million units many of which can be described as tablets, compared to about 161 million Android devices and 152 million iPads"

Personally I do not consider a Tablet any device without handwriting capabilities, exactly as BG envisioned,the new,format in,2002, but even broadening the definition by Steve Jobs parameters what this idea that W8 makes a laptop a Tablet is based upon?
A Tablet could be a Slate or a Convertible format, a laptop is a laptop regardless of being Touch enabled,or not.

maxslaterrobins said,
... It definitely doesn't help that they produced two versions - one with severe limitations; one without, but it comes on a much more expensive device - but they'll have to deal with that.

I presume you are referring to the Surface RT - I certainly don't feel its limited in any way. I am running full MS Office products, I write maths/engineering papers/books - so also running full MikTex/Texmaker. I have putty and vnc to connect to my MBP. I can pretty much use it to do anything that a full blown PC can do (just waiting for Emacs & gcc). I have a iPad2 - it can hardly do half of what my Surface RT can do and an Adroid tabel is no better (worse) than an iPad2.

all touch screen win8 devices have handwriting.. but who is to say that the sony tap 20 or any of the other convertibles are not classified as tablets the fact is they are, apple did not define what a tablet is and we the goal post will not be moved because people ane stuck in apples / androids world... the numbers listed above are and will be fact no getting around it and still stands

Juan Rodriguez said,
all touch screen win8 devices have handwriting..

What good is a OS that supports hand writing without a digitizer - 'cause most Windows 8/RT devices DON'T have a digitizer...

zrelativity said,

I presume you are referring to the Surface RT - I certainly don't feel its limited in any way. I am running full MS Office products,

Minus Outlook of course....

Juan Rodriguez said,
all touch screen win8 devices have handwriting.. but who is to say that the sony tap 20 or any of the other convertibles are not classified as tablets the fact is they are, apple did not define what a tablet is and we the goal post will not be moved because people ane stuck in apples / androids world... the numbers listed above are and will be fact no getting around it and still stands

Actually since Vista all computers running that OS and above have handwriting capabilities built in the OS; the point is that if your hardware does not have a digitizer such capabilities cannot be used. As for your comments about Apple I disagree there as well: Apple diluted the concept of a "Tablet" device with the iPad which again does not have a Digitizer but only a Touch screen.

Tom Mainelli, manager of IDC's Tablet programme, claimed that Microsoft's decision to produce two Surface variants had "yielded poor results," before continuing "[in the] long term we think Microsoft and its partners would be better served by focusing their attention on improving Windows 8.

I agree, but when does logic ever come into it Microsoft has proven time and time again that they'll always be second because of their over-complication of core products.

Why is it so difficult to just choose in the setup of Windows 8 that this is a touch enabled device or not, as I pointed out long before Windows 8 shipped.

Neobond said,

Why is it so difficult to just choose in the setup of Windows 8 that this is a touch enabled device or not, as I pointed out long before Windows 8 shipped.

Because users will still want a way to switch to desktop mode if they want to on touch devices, and touch mode on desktops if they want to, and locking anyone out would get just as much hate as they got for mixing them in the first place.

In the end, it's all about presentation to the consumer. Look at Ubuntu Touch. UX to UX, it's almost identical to Windows 8 in its marketed presentation to the user. On a tablet, it's a tablet (but it's Linux! so you can switch to desktop if you want!). On a desktop, it's a desktop (but it's Linux! so you can switch to touch if you want!). Dock the tablet to a monitor, and the monitor becomes a desktop! Unlike Windows 8, where if you dock a tablet to a monitor, the monitor...becomes a desktop! Because it's a second display. And that's how Windows 8 works.

Use case here, use case there. The marketing presentation is all that changed, and with it, everyone's attitudes. Does it make sense? Nope, but there it is.

Neobond said,

I agree, but when does logic ever come into it Microsoft has proven time and time again that they'll always be second because of their over-complication of core products.

Why is it so difficult to just choose in the setup of Windows 8 that this is a touch enabled device or not, as I pointed out long before Windows 8 shipped.

But the Surface is a "no compromise" device?

Neobond said,

I agree, but when does logic ever come into it Microsoft has proven time and time again that they'll always be second because of their over-complication of core products.

Why is it so difficult to just choose in the setup of Windows 8 that this is a touch enabled device or not, as I pointed out long before Windows 8 shipped.

By 2017, your device will most likely be touch by default.

maxslaterrobins said,

But the Surface is a "no compromise" device?


Maybe if battery life is of no concern to you...