International Data Corp. has predicted that Microsoft's tablet market share will grow to 10% by 2017, with 7.4% of Windows tablets being "full" Windows 8.
According to IDC, consumers aren't buying Microsoft's "value proposition" with Windows RT which means the platform – which is incompatible with legacy Windows apps – will stay at around 3% market share. Microsoft has currently captured 1% of the tablet market with its Surface tablets, the first of which was released late last year.
Tom Mainelli, manager of IDC's Tablet programme, claimed that Microsoft's decision to produce two Surface variants had "yielded poor results," before continuing "[in the] long term we think Microsoft and its partners would be better served by focusing their attention on improving Windows 8. Such a focus could drive better share growth in the tablet category down the road."
In 2013, Apple's iPad market share is expected to sink to 46% of the tablet market, down from 51% in 2012. Android's share is expected to rise to 49% in 2013, up from 42% in 2012. These numbers are surprising, but can be attributed to the success of Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire. Apple announced the iPad Mini in November 2012, to combat the threat from smaller Android tablets. Apple doesn't directly release iPad Mini sales figures, but Apple sold 22.9 million iPad's in Q1 2013.
IDC expects that 190.9 million tablets will be shipped in 2013, up from their previous forecast of 172.4 million. In 2012, tablet shipments grew to 128.3 million units, up 56% from 2011. By 2017, tablet shipments will be upwards of 350 million.