The IPcalypse is only 100 days away

We've all known it's been coming for a long time now, there's even a new, alternative IP addressing scheme that's been developed and implemented -- IPv6 -- but adoption has been slow, and now, things are about to heat up, as the time remaining before the estimated 166,741,530 remaining addresses run out. It was getting low, but this makes it seem much, much more real.

A Twitter account, labelled the "ARPAgeddon" has surfaced, which is broadcasting the countdown of IPv4's address pool drying up, estimates that as of today, only 102 days remain before all hell may break loose. The world knew it was coming, with IPv4 only being capable of 4,294,967,296 total addresses. IPv6 was developed to supercede the protocol -- which was originally released in 1981 -- and was finalised in 1998, over 12 years ago, but the "new" protocol still hasn't seen the adoption it needs.

The information on the "ARPAgeddon" Twitter account is sourced from Hurricane Electric Internet Services, who offer a live counter of how quickly the pool is diminishing. When the internet runs out of addresses, everything won't grind to a halt, but we could see ISPs reconfiguring their networks to put some clients behind shared public IPs, in order to give dedicated addresses to commercial customers.

Just because the IPv4 addressing scheme is running out, doesn't mean all hope is lost either. There are many ways to mitigate the impending doom, the most obvious being rapid adoption of IPv6, which could be pushed quickly by businesses at risk of not being able to obtain IPv4 addresses. Other possible solutions include heavier IPv4 address sharing, Network Address Translation, private addressing and more, but time is running out quickly.

Only 102 days left until the IPcalypse...

Image Credit: Wikipedia

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120 said,
Who gives a $hit more of the same BS hype to make more money. Question is whats lamer the hype or the people sitting around worrying either way more cashflow is created.

Are you stupid?

Is IPv6 aware of v4? I mean couldn't ISP's offer the v6 address to the end customer but route over v4?

The internet has changed. Back on dialup 254 addresses would be used by lots of users. These days most people have routers that are online 24/7 using one IP.

SK[ said,]Is IPv6 aware of v4? I mean couldn't ISP's offer the v6 address to the end customer but route over v4?

The internet has changed. Back on dialup 254 addresses would be used by lots of users. These days most people have routers that are online 24/7 using one IP.

They are designed to be incompatible. There are some (very poor) work arounds. 6 to 4 ... crap like that.

The vast majority of the technologies are IPv6 ready.

Windows is totally ready for IPv6. All Microsoft provided software is also IPv6 ready because of the way networking is implemented in Windows. I've been using Internet Explorer over IPv6 since the year 2000!

FreeBSD, Linux, OSX etc. have been IPv6 ready for a long time too. However, due to networking API changes, software for these systems will always need new code to support IPv6. Thankfully all the useful software is already 6 enabled.

Some ISPs have been testing to water by offering 6to4 tunnelling, but to this date the actual take-up is very little. You can be sure that when demand actually starts making a difference to them, the ISPs will be falling over themselves getting a production IPv6 configuration in place.

But the elephants in the room, sadly, are all the residential gateways that either don't offer IPv6 or won't have them enabled by default.

About 100 days, depending on what you are measuring. About 100 days estimate for IANA to dish out the remaining addresses to the Regional Internet Registries (RIR). You then have RIR depletion a bit later when they have assigned the addresses to ISP's, and then the time for ISP's to use them all up. So the pain might not be felt until 2012, unless there is a grab by companies to get stocked up with the addresses.

In the last 12 months allocations have been (rounded to the nearest million)
APNIC (Asia Pacific RIR) 113 Million addresses
RIPE (European RIR) 49 Million addresses
ARIN (North American RIR) 42 Million addresses
LACNIC (South American RIR) 17 Million addresses
AFRINIC (Africa RIR) 8 Million

IPv6 isn't hard. We have implemented it quite easily in the company I work for, and we have been running dual stack for about a year. What is hard is getting ISP's to give you an IPv6 block. Most ISP's give you is a standard answer of "There is no demand". I demanded and got. Much harder to do with a residential ISP as each person on their own has little clout and ISP's can often just say no demand, even if they got 200 calls a day on the subject.

The other issue is lack of IPv6 support on major websites. Google has some IPv6 sites, but Microsoft, IBM, BBC, Neowin etc seems to be none existent. Until companies and other websites makes themselves IPv6 accessible, then ISP's will say - "what is the point?"

Good comment Karen - I'd just like to bring peoples attention to the graph's actual scale which is in '/8's. So the total number of individual IPs is declining (of course) but the graph is only showing the allocation of /8 (that's 255.0.0.0 masked subnets of 16777214 IP addresses EACH). I figure not many companies or organisations are requesting or being allocated /8 networks from IANA anymore.

Bah bet most companies will end up with private IPv6 addresses at router and IPv4 internally to aid migration.

IPv6 isn't that hard to understand, its hex not dotted, not the end of the world.

Besides even if we did run out it wouldn't cause major issues immediately as the amount of overlap vs the amount online would be pretty damn minimal at first.

Glassed Silver said,
Is it true that ISPs will ONLY offer static IP addressing?
If that is true, I'm calling crap on ipv6

GS:mac

I didn't see where it said they would only offer static addresses, but what would be the problem of that anyway? (btw don't flame me to hard if I'm way off )

Why would you want a dynamic IPv6 address? The main reason ISP's do them is so that they don't have to have an IP address for every single user (not every single user will always be online)

There is enough room in the v6 address space that you could give every single person on Earth a /48 (What I have, which is equal to 79,228,162,514,264,337,593,543,950,336 addresses) and you'd have enough left over for another 41,454 Earth's (give or take a bit)

De.Bug said,
I didn't see where it said they would only offer static addresses, but what would be the problem of that anyway? (btw don't flame me to hard if I'm way off )

I personally just feel saver if I know that I cannot be recognized for a trillion years after my IP address landed somewhere, where it shouldn't land.
Currently with dynamic IPs it's easy: wait 24 hours and you're fine. Or simple reconnect your router.

Not to forget rapidshare advantages and stuff...

Now obviously I don't mean preventing legal actions or stuff, because IP+time/date is always recorded at the same time, but yea... that's not my point ^__^

GS:mac

It depends on the ISP and what type of client it is. How a residential connection will work I have no idea, but on a commerical setup our ISP gave us a /48. This gives us 65535 workable subnets beyound our firewall, each with 2^64 (18,446,744,073,709,551,616) addresses.

The router uses Stateless Autoconfiguration to assign an IPv6 addresss to the client based on the MAC address - though it doesn't give DNS server information. If you prefer DHCP, then there is a version for IPv6 called DHCPv6 (what a surprise). I've found a mixture of SA and DHCPv6 seems to give the optimal result in our situation.

Why did they go from 4 to 6, is 5 not a nice number or something? Still i`m sure it won`t effect home users for quite some time, i could be wrong but this seems to have cropped up at least twice every year for the past 3-4 years!

Riggers said,
Why did they go from 4 to 6, is 5 not a nice number or something? Still i`m sure it won`t effect home users for quite some time, i could be wrong but this seems to have cropped up at least twice every year for the past 3-4 years!
ipv5 was supposed to be a audio/video media dedicated protocol.

This ought to get interesting. Nothing is going to change any time soon.

Just picture all that unsupported legacy software that is still in use that can ONLY speak IPv4. Now imagine how many mission critical roles it is in and suggest to someone that it will all stop working next Tuesday, next month or even next year.

Right, that's happen. I think there is a darn good reason IPv4 is still here, and its got nothing to do with technology.

^ lol what's this darn good reason?

It's just technology, you are correct with the amount of legacy devices, so until a cost effective router that can take external IPv6 in and share a connection to an IPv4 network we're going to sit in limbo while the number of IPv4 addresses maxes out.

Besides IT service providers that have blocks of addressing are already having them stripped off if not in use, they are fighting it in some cases but I know of a class C block that got taken back last week.

Things have to change, not tomorrow but by 2012 something will be implemented.

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