What are the real reasons behind no Windows Phone 8 updates?

There was a bit of a dust up earlier this week when a Portuguese employee of Microsoft said in a video interview that all current Windows Phone devices would be able to be updated to Windows Phone 8. That quickly got the Internet speculation engine going but unfortunately, that same person later admitted he had made a mistake. He now claims that he meant to say that all current Windows Phone software would run on Windows Phone 8 when it comes out later this year.

So what's really going on? Paul Thurrott's Supersite for Windows claims that he finally got some real information on the Windows Phone 8 upgrade story via anonymous sources at Microsoft (officially, Microsoft is still not talking about their Windows Phone 8 plans).

In short, Thurrott says that according to his sources, a Windows Phone 8 upgrade for current Windows Phone 7.x devices, including the just released and very popular Nokia Lumia 900, won't happen for a number of reasons. One is pure economics; there are simply not enough Windows Phone devices out there to justify a very expensive software upgrade.

Another reason is technological; Windows Phone 8 will be based on the Windows 8 kernel and the story claims it will have much higher system requirements than Windows Phone 7.x devices.

Smartphone makers and wireless carriers also both want to sell new phones, not support older devices with a new upgrade, according to the story's sources. Finally, the wireless carriers won't ever support releasing such a software update on their networks.

So when you decide to buy that new Lumia 900, keep in mind that it's more than likely that you may be stuck with Windows Phone 7.x upgrades rather than Windows Phone 8.

Thanks to Stoffel for the tip

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They'd be shooting themselves in the foot. Users like me, who won't touch Android due to fragmentation and delayed updates would stay clear. Are they going to use the same philosophy with tablets?

I have my eye on on a Windows Phone, really like the Lumia 900. Been an iPhone user since 07 and to be honest I'm tired of iPhones, but unless they provide a upgrade path that won't leave my OS completely out of date in a year forget it.

Microsoft will support these devices, and the reason is simple: Platform market share. They cannot drop support for these phones, because doing so would mean they're immediately resetting their app market back to zero. That would make no sense from a business prospective. The problem so far with Windows Phone has been the small size of users to download applications, this has made it not worth the cost of major players from developing for the platform. Just as soon as they release a phone that gets positive reviews and reception from users, they make it so they cannot download and use new applications for WP8? Don't think so.

bitslasher said,
Microsoft will support these devices, and the reason is simple: Platform market share. They cannot drop support for these phones, because doing so would mean they're immediately resetting their app market back to zero. That would make no sense from a business prospective. The problem so far with Windows Phone has been the small size of users to download applications, this has made it not worth the cost of major players from developing for the platform. Just as soon as they release a phone that gets positive reviews and reception from users, they make it so they cannot download and use new applications for WP8? Don't think so.

Agreed. Though with the use of their frameworks, the underlying OS doesn't matter. I do think we'll see an update though.

Gee, I thought Windows-8 was just Phone-8 tricked out to work on tablets and other touch-screen devices with an ARM processor. Microsoft is really confusing consumers--not a good strategy by any company.

Meanwhile, a certain competitor is supporting three year old phones with the latest updates and is laughing all the way to the bank. I wonder how Microsoft's business model with the Windows Phone platform is taking lack of confidence in their products due to lacking updates into account? Why would one buy a phone if it's not getting major updates? I guess they're catering to the crowd of users being impressed by security fixes.

PS In regard to Mr. Thurrot's claims about WP8, the economic reason is laughable, as the update is not much more than a 'recompile' for current WP7 devices, again something he does not understand.

The only 'real' reason for WP8 to NOT be supported on WP7 devices would be a new and specific hardware feature that WP7 devices do not have. (Mango for example added a new Gyro requirement, but it was emulated in software so that phones without it could still reference it as a 'real' device and use the internal code so Apps could do motion API (aka movement/tilt) without the inherent 'jitter'. (Microsoft has R&D videos on how 'jitter' is reduced that came from this emulation that is in Mango.)

So if WP8 is not available for WP7 device it will be a very 'specific' and 'needed' device level feature that cannot be software emulated.


WP7 devices are being used by Microsoft in testing Windows 8 RT (NT kernel on ARM), and they are running the full version of NT with the desktop and Office on a 1ghz first generation WP7. So it isn't about 'performance' or some technical issue in OS Core functionality changes. If they can run a full Desktop OS on a WP7 device, and WP8 is not made available for WP7 devices, it means there will be a specific new hardware feature that will be 'necessary' and used in WP8.


PS If anyone at Neowin talks to Paul, tell him we are still laughing about his correspondence, and may yet publish it online for the world share in on the laugh.

Ok, let's start with no longer referencing Paul Thurrott...

In a recent exchange one of our researchers had with Mr. Thurrott over technical information in one of his articles, he admitted that his source on a particular subject about the architecture of Windows NT was from Intel.

He then went on to incriminate his credibility by stating that he 'still' believed the Intel sources were more accurate than Dave Cutler of Microsoft on how the NT kernel was designed.

(Which was a 'Holy crazy man' moment that was posted on our intranet, that was both sadly stupid and a roll on the floor laughing moment, especially with the added details to the correspondence that we are still debating on whether to post publicly by one of our technical bloggers.)

So if you want to 'trust' his understanding of technology and his 'sources', at least know what you are dealing with.


The conversation with him and the researcher was over a simplistic fact about the HAL of NT and how it inter-operates with the NT kernel. He 'insisted' that NT was 'hard' to port to other architectures because of the NT HAL and Microsoft would never be able to make NT available on anything but a limited number of architectures. Again using his 'Intel' source as his basis of reasoning, even though the HAL of NT is the exact reason it is 'easy' to port to other architectures.

Even more egregious he followed up defending his viewpoint and his 'Intel' source that NT on ARM would require highly customized rewrites of NT for each variation of ARM processor. (Which is FLIPPING insane.)

So, as to why or how WP8 will or will not allow what, he is he last person I would trust to have 'good' sources, because even when he does, he doesn't always pick the 'best' source, nor has the understanding to comprehend technically what the source is telling him.

Anyone that trust's an Intel source about how NT over Dave Cutler needs to be ignored or laughed out of the industry.


Our Research Group immediately added a policy to no longer provide Mr. Thrurrot with any future 'inside' information or 'technical' explanations, which he has relied on in the past since he 'admittedly' has little 'technical' understanding.

Anyone with more than a couple of functioning brain cells could have worked out that there's ZERO chance the phone carriers would allow existing models to upgrade. That would prevent them from selling you a new phone.

The nearly choked on their pocketbooks when MS wanted to control the updates for WP7, and why do you think many Android phones never get official updates?

DUH!


Smartphone makers and wireless carriers also both want to sell new phones, not support older devices with a new upgrade, according to the story's sources. Finally, the wireless carriers won't ever support releasing such a software update on their networks.

I think MS is waiting for the OEMs to come up with compelling hardware. If they are going to have generic anemic hardware who will really care about the OS? There has to be some device that will make people not care about what they have to do to get this new phone. Like the new iPhone and the Galaxy phones now from Samsung. If they come out with a bland black box it will not matter how much better the OS has become.

Thurrot was wrong on Mango. Said it would be delayed until 2012 and he will be proven wrong on this.

Paul's technical excuse is complete BS. WP7.5 devices can handle W8.

Microsoft had full Windows 7 running on devices weaker than current WP7 devices back in 2010 or earlier. Windows 8 has better memory management than Windows 7: http://www.maximumpc.com/artic...7_running_arm_two_years_ago

Microsoft demoed Windows 8 last summer on a Single core 1.2Ghz Qualcomm CPU, so WP7.5 could easily support a scaled down Windows 8.:
http://www.windows8release.com...s-which-supports-windows-8/

Its interesting because I can see reasons for both cases (getting and not getting it). That said, even if the hardware could support WP8, they might not release it officially for older handsets. I doubt its due to system requirements, though. Allegedly Nokia was the driving force behind Tango and its lower system requirements (800mhz vs 1ghz, 256ram vs 512ram) in order to make more inexpensive WP7 devices. I doubt their desire for lower-cost handsets will change with WP8. Likewise, I'm sure other handset makers would like to have more flexibility in creating devices. Imagine how happy they'd be if they could have 800mhz, 1ghz and 1.4ghz devices, or 800mhz, 1.4ghz and 1ghz dual-cores as options (low-end, normal entry level, premium).

Likewise, the lack of success MS has had with WP7 gives OEMs and carriers more leverage to force changes they want on it. I share Thurott's cynacism here - even if is technically possible to run WP8 on WP7 hardware, I suspect carriers and OEMs would rather it wasn't an option. While Android can be upgraded by a savvy user, I think its safe to say most users aren't savvy enough to do it themselves (or shouldn't try). The general public isn't the same as a power-user!

About Android: given it has true multitasking, it needs RAM more than WP7 devices do (task switching, tombstoning, dehydrating, etc). If Android didn't have that, it wouldn't need as much (but, honestly, that is one of the appealing system features it has, so I'd rather have it than not).

On fragmentation: since, allegedly, WP7 apps will run on WP8 devices, one could simply write WP7 and still address the entire market if the app doesn't need WP8 features. Or, the app could recognize which version of the OS its running on and enable features as appropriate. The marketplace should (or rather, had better) recognize what you have, and only present what you can run OR let you know that can't run an app fully. In a way, its similar to Windows XP and Windows 7 - write for the LCD and go from there. Android's fragmentation is a combination of OS fragmentation and extreme hardware diversity. WP at least has that baseline you can shoot for/rely on, relatively speaking.

DJ Dark said,
Why don't thy just do the updates like apple and be done with it?
Be nice, but I strongly suspect the carriers chafe at Apple doing that, and certainly don't want any else to follow in Apple's footsteps if at all possible. Plus, honestly, Android doesn't force them to do anything they don't want to, so MS has an uphill battle if they want to act like Apple in this regard

Sam not Spam said,
Be nice, but I strongly suspect the carriers chafe at Apple doing that, and certainly don't want any else to follow in Apple's footsteps if at all possible. Plus, honestly, Android doesn't force them to do anything they don't want to, so MS has an uphill battle if they want to act like Apple in this regard
yes but now look at the fragmentation the carriers cause.

I'm going to say an educated NO on current WP7 devices getting an OS upgrade. I'm going to say yes that apps targeted at the 7.5 framework will function well on both current and WP8 devices. The new kernel that's going to be a part of Win RT and WP8 just isn't going to run on the old hardware.

At least I'm not going to be locked into a Lumia 900 for the 18 months that follow the WP8 release. That's the real reason they're not being forth coming about it. Why kill current sales if you can just say nothing?


Was at AT&T store, and yes, they do have the white L900. However, you will have to wait until 22nd to get it.
On other note: While I was at the AT&T store, there were 5 people buying the Cyan L900, and some talking to the salesperson on the Windows Phone.
I also went to Microsoft Store, and there were 7 people at the bar buying and activating the Cyan & Black L900. The atmosphere was awesome!
Good to know that Windows + Nokia L900 are doing well (very well indeed)

Svggarden said,
Good to know that Windows + Nokia L900 are doing well (very well indeed)
I preordered my Lumia and have loved it. Fantastic device, and zippier than my Samsung Focus (which is now functioning in a manner similar to an iPod Touch since the SIM was removed). The Creative Studio app is quite nice too - love the panorama feature ^_^

I wish everyone would stop coming out with I heard this and that from my super duper inside sources and quit complaining, if they get wp8 then good if not then buy a new phone if you want wp8. Nobody bitches about android with there 5 months between new handsets with different versions of the OS, why bitch about windows phone, just a bunch a of crap coming from everyone and at the end of the day none of them know ****. Be happy with the phone you have.

I have a very strong suspicion that all of these rumors by unnamed "sources" on this subject and the subsequent reporting of them is nothing more than an attempt to get MSFT to go on the record on way or the other, which they won't do until they are ready. And, in the end, the net effect of all of this rumor mongering is to actually hurt the platform the purport to "support". Irony.

The only thing all these Apollo rumors are doing for me is making me more nervous as to whether my device will get the update or not. Plus, as far as I've seen, rumors tend to be wrong more often than not. And even if I did believe these rumors, there have been reports that Microsoft nay be testing Apollo builds on devices as weak as the Lumia 610, and if it (supposedly) ran well on that, then I see no reason to leave 1st and 2nd gen devices out. 1st gen Windows Phones aren't even two years old yet, so i don't think they should/would stop supporting those devices. Maybe if they do get Apollo they will leave some features out, but MS would be foolish to abandon those devices before they're even two years old or have received at least two major updates.
In any case, I'll wait until Microsoft gives an official statement as to whether current devices will be supported or not.

I like Paul, but this seems a silly thing...

No update for 1º generation of WP's? Ok I will eat that...

2º Generation WP's won't have? I won't bite that, that' silly and I don't believe until the day Microsoft knowledge's that officially...

They are doomed if they don't allow 1st and 2nd gen. devices to upgrade to WP8. But I don't mind much because I'm jumping ship from a obsolete Froyo based Samsung Vibrant to any Lumia Pureview handset....

Ricardo Dawkins said,
They are doomed if they don't allow 1st and 2nd gen. devices to upgrade to WP8. But I don't mind much because I'm jumping ship from a obsolete Froyo based Samsung Vibrant to any Lumia Pureview handset....
Could you imagine a phone with a Lytro camera? That would be pretty awesome too! ^_^

This Story doesn't make sense. why they would spend multi million dollors campaign on a phone that will die in less than a year? I guess they also showed how fast and small windows 8 kernel will be. Additionally if there is any hardware limitations that is also already considered in Tango Update which will be released by next month. I think these rumors are just Android Fans BS to overshadow big success of Lumia 900 so far.

It just doesn't make sense.

While Paul Thurrott may be right at the end of the day (Microsoft has made similarly stupid decisions in the past), his reasons are just stupid.

For example, if Windows Phone 8 is not able to run on single core, it is less efficient than Android. In that case I probably just don't want to run it on ANY phone - old or new. The argument that Microsoft and Nokia may abandon current fans because of their small number is even much dumber. It's just plain arrogant and cruel. It's a perfect anti-marketing.

Oslik said,
The argument that Microsoft and Nokia may abandon current fans because of their small number is even much dumber. It's just plain arrogant and cruel. It's a perfect anti-marketing.

I agree. Small and getting smaller if they abandon their small user base.

There is a chance that something else is happening though... suppose current phones don't get WP 8, but instead a WP 7.8 upgrade - with all the same relevant features of WP8, but minus the same kernel. The new kernel would be optimized for multi-core, the old for current generation phones. Sitting on top is the standard WP UI.

If done correctly, it wouldn't matter that current devices don't have WP8.

Lets assume for a moment that the Lumia 900 sells very well in the US and Europe between now and the October timeframe when WP8 is expected. Thats just 6 months from now and a lot of those users will be in contracts for the phone.

It seems crazy to me that these new Windows Phone users will suddenly find themselves with a phone that will be considered obsolete by Microsoft, OEM's and the carriers that sold them a mere 6 months later and will effectively be stuck using that phone with no improvements for the next 18 months. In the case of Canadian users that signed a 3 year contract that will be for a further 12 months. How will these users feel?

Its not as though Windows Phone is perfect as it is now, let alone as capable as its competition. I'm pretty sure no one would expect to be able to experience all the improvements in a newer version, but with things like data and SMS backup missing leaving those features absent from the current platform while you tout the new OS will annoy a large number of current WP users. Doesnt matter if they arent that many now, its not as if Microsoft can afford to throw away what little marketshare they have so far built up since there is no guarantee that WP8 will make much difference there anyway. The current userbase is the one MS wants and needs to keep to help the platform start to grow, now and in the future as if current users are kept happy the more likely they will be to stay with WP.

It really wouldnt make sense to alienate all those new users, at least in my book. However, this is Microsoft and lets face it, they are not the sharpest tools in the shed. Someone somewhere has probably done some dodgy calculations and summised that they can get away with it. With diehards like me, they probably can. For the rest of the buying public who were hesitant to try it in the first place but decided to give it a shot they most certainly can not and that is only going to make things worse for the prospects of success for this mobile platform.

efjay said,
Lets assume for a moment that the Lumia 900 sells very well in the US and Europe between now and the October timeframe when WP8 is expected. Thats just 6 months from now and a lot of those users will be in contracts for the phone.

It seems crazy to me that these new Windows Phone users will suddenly find themselves with a phone that will be considered obsolete by Microsoft, OEM's and the carriers that sold them a mere 6 months later and will effectively be stuck using that phone with no improvements for the next 18 months.

I find it hard to believe as well. If it's true, then Microsoft, Nokia, and AT&T have taken WP users for mugs big time.

efjay said,
It seems crazy to me that these new Windows Phone users will suddenly find themselves with a phone that will be considered obsolete by Microsoft, OEM's and the carriers that sold them a mere 6 months later

Thats exactly the Apple iphone model - a big reason I will never buy apple products.

Hopefully Nokia will retain their own well worn model and supply updates for years to come. You would think they'd be making statements guaranteeing this now, so as to not dampen demand for their new phones.

haha... funny how WP7 users said that the upgrade path was good now the true color came out... at least Android phones can use custom rom even if the manufacturer dont release software update..thats why i dont use WP7

still1 said,
haha... funny how WP7 users said that the upgrade path was good now the true color came out... at least Android phones can use custom rom even if the manufacturer dont release software update..thats why i dont use WP7

There are custom roms available for some WP devices, just to set the record straight.

still1 said,
haha... funny how WP7 users said that the upgrade path was good now the true color came out... at least Android phones can use custom rom even if the manufacturer dont release software update..thats why i dont use WP7

Until MS makes the official announcement, nothing is certain. It's all rumors, trusted sources, insiders and such. Once MS says it, then you can laugh.

efjay said,

There are custom roms available for some WP devices, just to set the record straight.

Yeah and you have to unofficially hack them like the iPhone to do it, voiding the warranty in the process. There's nothing like the Android custom ROM community for WP devices. Cyanogenmod builds directly from the Android source code. You can't do that with WP sorry.

simplezz said,

Yeah and you have to unofficially hack them like the iPhone to do it, voiding the warranty in the process. There's nothing like the Android custom ROM community for WP devices. Cyanogenmod builds directly from the Android source code. You can't do that with WP sorry.
Similarly, some of us have no desire to mod our phones to get the most out of them, which is one of the reasons I went with WP7 instead of Android. I just want a phone I like, stock and out of the box, and have not seen any Android like that. I've seen many customized Androids that are cool as hell, but I'm not interested doing that myself.

Sam not Spam said,
Similarly, some of us have no desire to mod our phones to get the most out of them, which is one of the reasons I went with WP7 instead of Android. I just want a phone I like, stock and out of the box, and have not seen any Android like that. I've seen many customized Androids that are cool as hell, but I'm not interested doing that myself.

then this article is bad news for u because u arent getting official wp8 for ur wp7 phone.
this point is people who are interested in going custom rom can do it but not with wp7.. i have to laught at u guys.

People can't complain, you just can't have unlimited updates, especially when carriers are in the middle, and if you say that you're going to switch to Android or iOS, just do it now because that means WP is not good enough for you, right? Just switch to another platform and stop expecting things

daniel_rh said,
People can't complain, you just can't have unlimited updates

I think people who just bought a brand new Lumia 900 on a two year contract might have reason to complain considering they won't be getting the latest and greatest just 5/6 months down the line.

A lot of people complain about Android updates, but this is far worse. Assuming it's true of course.

That's the reason I think MS doesn't want to say NO to the WP8 update, if people knows now that there's no update then the sales of the current generation will see a big drop

daniel_rh said,
That's the reason I think MS doesn't want to say NO to the WP8 update, if people knows now that there's no update then the sales of the current generation will see a big drop

You could be right there.

simplezz said,

I think people who just bought a brand new Lumia 900 on a two year contract might have reason to complain considering they won't be getting the latest and greatest just 5/6 months down the line.


I don't think it is worse than Android because Android phones are being released now that do not have the latest and greatest OS installed yet. They say it will get upgraded but no eta on when, so maybe next year? I am so tired of my Android I am stuck on 2.2 Froyo. Go figure my wife was updated to 2.3 Gingerbread 2 months after she got her phone and I am still waiting.

A lot of people complain about Android updates, but this is far worse. Assuming it's true of course.

If a 1.4 GHz SnapDragon CPU is not enough to run the new kernel within the current phones RAM resources, it just means that Microsoft decided to adventure in the Android class OS footprint. Sad. Not looking good for battery life.

Meanwhile, this is all assuming there is some thruth behind all the speculation.

Perhaps it's more about RAM than CPU, and general optimizations for multi core CPU, in any case, I hope to order a WP8 this december! Just waiting to see if it's worthy

TheCyberKnight said,
If a 1.4 GHz SnapDragon CPU is not enough to run the new kernel within the current phones RAM resources, it just means that Microsoft decided to adventure in the Android class OS footprint. Sad. Not looking good for battery life.

Meanwhile, this is all assuming there is some thruth behind all the speculation.


The NT Kernel has been running on 600Mhz ARM processors for the last few years, so I'm skeptical.

deadonthefloor said,

The NT Kernel has been running on 600Mhz ARM processors for the last few years, so I'm skeptical.

I tend to agree with you too.

My primary line of thought on this subject is still the Microsoft classic "We don't talk about unannounced stuff".

Meanwhile, one has to recognize that the silence is damaging right now.

TheCyberKnight said,

I tend to agree with you too.

My primary line of thought on this subject is still the Microsoft classic "We don't talk about unannounced stuff".

Meanwhile, one has to recognize that the silence is damaging right now.

Well, its typical corporate PR, really. New model? Price cuts? Upgrades? Defects? No comment until we're ready or someone is twisting our arm.

I personally wonder how many average users (ie, folks who would never come to a site like this) even ask if their smartphone can get newer versions of the OS or not. It can hurt the more tech-savvy folks' opinion, sure, but I'm not so sure about the mass market.

in worst case we'll most likely will be able to manually install WP8 (like current custom WP7 firmwares), but depending on bootloader.

anyway, I'll be dissapointed if they don't offer update to at least some current phones. current economy isn't economical anyways and more about getting profits while wasting precious resources. and I hope MS don't want to support this stupidity.

Look, Microsoft simply doesn't know yet if they will support 2nd or even 1st generation hardware. They are waiting on sales numbers of the Lumia 900 (and 800, 710, 610) before they make this decision. If the Lumia 900 is going to be a big success the probability of an update to WP8 is much more likely. Luckily for existing users it looks very good, since the 900 seems to sell very well.

Gungel said,

Yes I think that's the reason why we're hearing so many conflicting stories.
WP8 is being tested on older hardware for example. It makes sense to run it on those devices
as a debug platform and to test the feasability of such an update.

I'm sure that if Nokia feels that they've sold a solid amount of Lumias, they'll push Microsoft to update them (or update them themselves, Nokia having special privileges and all that).

The thing is, we *aren't* hearing "so many conflicting stories". We heard one report, from one guy, who was basically retweeted to hell and back.

His mistake was then corrected.

Joshie said,
The thing is, we *aren't* hearing "so many conflicting stories". We heard one report, from one guy, who was basically retweeted to hell and back.

His mistake was then corrected.

There were more than just that guy. I just can't be bothered to search for them, but every time a message pops up on the internet about
the WP8 updates, a conflicting message pops up a few days later. Which is quite odd.

Coolicer said,

There were more than just that guy. I just can't be bothered to search for them, but every time a message pops up on the internet about
the WP8 updates, a conflicting message pops up a few days later. Which is quite odd.


Yep. Nokia said that their phones WOULD be getting the update MONTHS ago. Probably better to believe them than some blogger with mystery sources... Lol

Windows 8 was demoed on a single core, 1.2 GHz Qualcomm ARM chip last June 2011 at Computex 2011. Paul has no idea what he is talking about, and he either has sources that enjoy making him look like an idiot, or he is making up his sources and therefore he is an idiot.

I know that he helps with the live blogs on this site, but, even then, he adds no value; in fact, I would say that he generally adds negative value because he is generally wrong, or he is stating opinions. His story is adding fake-fuel to a fire that has been spurred by rumors. And those rumors are all coming because Microsoft PR is trying to remain mum until whenever they choose to make the big announcement (either for or against such an update).

http://www.windows8release.com...s-which-supports-windows-8/

Windows Phone is a dead platform if they do not update their phones to WP8 upon release. I say that as a WP owner that has converted many people over to WP. It's a wonderful platform, but if it won't be supported then it's going to die before it ever gets off of the ground. As actively as I push WP, I would actively push against it in such a scenario. As such, I think Microsoft knows that they cannot throw away their entire customer base, as well as their developers "stuck" on WP7.

Until we receive some form of official announcement beyond anonymous sources, we should pretty much wait before we burn the WP7 bridge. And moving forward, I think it's safe to assume that there will be an update until we are told otherwise, because that matches what they have said in the past.

This would actually be the nail in the coffin for Windows Phone. The one thing they really had going for it was a promised absence of fragmentation. If they do this, they are basically giving you the negatives of android, mixed with the locked down nature of the iPhone (many see this as negative), and without most of the good or popular apps. I have had my LG Quantum since the first christmas windows phones were around. I have seen angry birds come to WP7. No other popular game apps. No Pandora. No Words with Friends. No Draw Something. No exclusives. Nothing to make WP7 more attractive than other phones except a very smooth experience. If you have the smoothest driving car in the world, you will get upset with it's lack of additional features when you realize everybody else has power windows, A/C, Windshield wipers, headlights, seatbelts, and more. I'm just saying, WP7 has 1 strong point, and a promise of no fragmentation. Looks like we will be left with 1 strong point and a broken promise.

Invizibleyez said,
I have seen angry birds come to WP7. No other popular game apps. No Pandora. No Words with Friends. No Draw Something. No exclusives. Nothing to make WP7 more attractive than other phones except a very smooth experience. If you have the smoothest driving car in the world, you will get upset with it's lack of additional features

All the features are there(integration): fast camera start up, social connection(twitter, Facebook, xbox live, skydrive, office). No fragmentation like Android, and crashes like ifruit(on older models after the upgrades) and android.
I don't use my phone to play angry bird, there is a words game that you can play with friends that have android, ifruit phones. I use my phone to check email, edit office files(word, excel), upload pics to Facebook, twitter, and skydrive( 25gb FREE).

Invizibleyez said,
This would actually be the nail in the coffin for Windows Phone. The one thing they really had going for it was a promised absence of fragmentation. If they do this, they are basically giving you the negatives of android, mixed with the locked down nature of the iPhone (many see this as negative), and without most of the good or popular apps. I have had my LG Quantum since the first christmas windows phones were around. I have seen angry birds come to WP7. No other popular game apps. No Pandora. No Words with Friends. No Draw Something. No exclusives. Nothing to make WP7 more attractive than other phones except a very smooth experience. If you have the smoothest driving car in the world, you will get upset with it's lack of additional features when you realize everybody else has power windows, A/C, Windshield wipers, headlights, seatbelts, and more. I'm just saying, WP7 has 1 strong point, and a promise of no fragmentation. Looks like we will be left with 1 strong point and a broken promise.

WP7 has a 1.2% market share. Why would it the "nail in the coffin" if there are barely any WP's out there? Like Mary Jo said, this is probably the best time to do this type of upgrade: when the market share is very small, thus creating less of a disruptive affect.

Nobody cares about fast camera start up. The social integration is ok. Fragmentation is coming soon. Wp7 may not crash as much as android, but it does crash. Many people play games on their phones. The latest hot thing seems to be games with facebook friends and i dont think wp7 has any, and definitely not the popular ones.

Svggarden said,

All the features are there(integration): fast camera start up, social connection(twitter, Facebook, xbox live, skydrive, office). No fragmentation like Android, and crashes like ifruit(on older models after the upgrades) and android. Everything else you mentioned can be done on android +iphone. The problem is that there is nothing on wp7 that anyone just cant wait to show off.Yeah,its ok if you like what the kin should have been. But this is supposed to be competition with smartphones, not a social/feature phone.
I don't use my phone to play angry bird, there is a words game that you can play with friends that have android, ifruit phones. I use my phone to check email, edit office files(word, excel), upload pics to Facebook, twitter, and skydrive( 25gb FREE).

The only relevant point is the last one, that wireless carriers wouldn't want to deploy such an update anyway.

At&t can't get a keyboard fix out to users because of their priorities. A major OS upgrade that would keep users on the same hardware for an extra year? No thanks.

That is true! Also, the Apollo phones will be equipped with NFC, which MS are working with carriers for payments system via carrier and the software. However, they are not quite ready on the first released, as they are still ironing out the details with carriers and the software. Verizon, Sprint are on board with this. So go ahead and get the current phone, these advance technology won't be ready until 1st or 2nd Q of 2012

[quote=Svggarden said,]That is true! Also, the Apollo phones will be equipped with NFC, which MS are working with carriers for payments system via carrier and the software. However, they are not quite ready on the first released, as they are still ironing out the details with carriers and the software. Verizon, Sprint are on board with this. So go ahead and get the current phone, these advance technology won't be ready until 1st or 2nd Q of 2013/quote]. (oops) 2013

I'm very sceptical that this is true, Microsoft supporters have slammed Google for Android's lack of updates but this would take the problem one step too far.

Does Paul usually call these things right?

Once he starts quoting sources, named or not, from within Microsoft, his track record is far above almost any other tech blogger out there.

His guesses of where the market will go aren't always fantastic (he thought the Amiga would come out on top and initially that the iPad would never go beyond a niche). He readily admits his errors, though, and is pretty self-deprecating, which is a nice change of pace from some personalities out there.

thealexweb said,
Does Paul usually call these things right?
No, he has been wrong on just most-everything related to WP7. According to him, there should be a Nokia Lumia phone on Verizon this month.

Joshie said,
Once he starts quoting sources, named or not, from within Microsoft, his track record is far above almost any other tech blogger out there.

His guesses of where the market will go aren't always fantastic (he thought the Amiga would come out on top and initially that the iPad would never go beyond a niche). He readily admits his errors, though, and is pretty self-deprecating, which is a nice change of pace from some personalities out there.

I like and respect Paul, but he has been wrong about Mango not coming until 2012, and Arm tablets not having a desktop to name just two that come to mind. He and both Mary Jo Foley have been wrong on occasion, but they are perhaps the most respected people when it comes to Microsoft news.

I personally believe that All devices will get Apollo but the devices will need to be flashed and you will have to reload your settings and apps. Probably Microsoft is working on a method of restoring user info, but are running into issues due to the differences in the two versions.

Joshie said,
Once he starts quoting sources, named or not, from within Microsoft, his track record is far above almost any other tech blogger out there.

I'd have to agree with that, he if says that's what he's hearing from multiple ms sources then that is what they are telling him. Not to mention it makes perfect sense, like I said yesterday there is more then just Microsoft involved in such a decision.

thealexweb said,
I'm very sceptical that this is true, Microsoft supporters have slammed Google for Android's lack of updates but this would take the problem one step too far.

Does Paul usually call these things right?


This part seems to be very wrong:

"Windows Phone 8 will be based on the Windows 8 kernel and the story claims it will have much higher system requirements than Windows Phone 7.x devices"

Microsoft and Nokia will definitely want to target lower end hardware. I highly doubt that Nokia will want to abandon that huge market with an OS that "requires" two-cores...

thealexweb said,
Does Paul usually call these things right?

No he doesn't. It wouldn't surprise me one way or the other on how this turns out. Not because of Paul but Microsoft has a bad reputation with phones in general. They pulled this crap with Windows Mobile. They pulled this crap with their epic failure with the Kin.

Microsoft doesn't have to explain themselves with this one either. Who said phones have to be updated to the latest version? Apple started that. No phone before them ever did that. I am not saying it is a good thing or a bad thing. In my personal experience I never noticed people knowing what version of any software people run. I have friends now that have no idea what ICS is. I have friends that never connect their iPhones to iTunes and are unaware of an upgrade to their phone. It's only geeks like us that know and care.

I had a Windows Mobile phone back in the day and hated it because of the lack of updates. I dumped it for a Blackberry Storm later. It was better but it too suffered from lack of updates.

When Android first came out I was skeptical. But when I saw how relatively easy it is to root and install a custom ROM, I jumped on board. Recently I also got an iPhone and like that Apple always updates these devices. Does Windows Phone have a developer community like Android does? Is this something that can be bypassed?

thealexweb said,
I'm very sceptical that this is true, Microsoft supporters have slammed Google for Android's lack of updates but this would take the problem one step too far.

Does Paul usually call these things right?

Paul is just speculating, if you read his post

UndergroundWire said,
Does Windows Phone have a developer community like Android does? Is this something that can be bypassed?

Windows Phone does have developer community and it's possible to flash custom ROM's for some devices. Should be possible to unofficially install WP8 on some devices as well.

х.iso said,

Windows Phone does have developer community and it's possible to flash custom ROM's for some devices. Should be possible to unofficially install WP8 on some devices as well.

I see XDA posting articles about Windows Phone. I have no interest in WP so I never bothered to check. I may have an interest depending on how Windows Phone 8 looks.

Geeks shouldn't be too concerned about this then by what you are saying. It can't be more difficult than doing it for Android.

Deviate_X said,


This part seems to be very wrong:

"Windows Phone 8 will be based on the Windows 8 kernel and the story claims it will have much higher system requirements than Windows Phone 7.x devices"

Microsoft and Nokia will definitely want to target lower end hardware. I highly doubt that Nokia will want to abandon that huge market with an OS that "requires" two-cores...


Agreed. This in particular makes no sense whatsoever and makes me question the validity of these "sources"...

UndergroundWire said,

No he doesn't. It wouldn't surprise me one way or the other on how this turns out. Not because of Paul but Microsoft has a bad reputation with phones in general. They pulled this crap with Windows Mobile. They pulled this crap with their epic failure with the Kin.

Microsoft doesn't have to explain themselves with this one either. Who said phones have to be updated to the latest version? Apple started that. No phone before them ever did that. I am not saying it is a good thing or a bad thing. In my personal experience I never noticed people knowing what version of any software people run. I have friends now that have no idea what ICS is. I have friends that never connect their iPhones to iTunes and are unaware of an upgrade to their phone. It's only geeks like us that know and care.

I had a Windows Mobile phone back in the day and hated it because of the lack of updates. I dumped it for a Blackberry Storm later. It was better but it too suffered from lack of updates.

When Android first came out I was skeptical. But when I saw how relatively easy it is to root and install a custom ROM, I jumped on board. Recently I also got an iPhone and like that Apple always updates these devices. Does Windows Phone have a developer community like Android does? Is this something that can be bypassed?


Not to question your 'expertise' on the subject, but what update did the Kin not get? :-/

M_Lyons10 said,

Not to question your 'expertise' on the subject, but what update did the Kin not get? :-/

Umm, how about the entire platform was discontinued. So essentially the 5 people that bought the phone never got updates.

UndergroundWire said,

Umm, how about the entire platform was discontinued. So essentially the 5 people that bought the phone never got updates.

Woah, woah, woah! Where are you getting 5? I think it was 3.

I think that's his point though. It was a discontinued product line, and for much different reasons (it was a feature phone priced as a smart phone with a data plan, which was bound for failure, particularly thanks to Verizon's pricing). That's quite different from an able-bodied, superseded product line, which is effectively what WP7 would become if the rumor turns out to be true.

pickypg said,
I think that's his point though. It was a discontinued product line, and for much different reasons (it was a feature phone priced as a smart phone with a data plan, which was bound for failure, particularly thanks to Verizon's pricing). That's quite different from an able-bodied, superseded product line, which is effectively what WP7 would become if the rumor turns out to be true.

Yeah but I never specified that it was a smartphone. I just in general Microsoft has bad luck with phones.

sanke1 said,
Not looking good tbh

If you consider Nokia's stated determination to drive down the price of WP devices, specifically for emerging and smaller markets. Why then would Microsoft build WP8 not run on lower spec'd hardware simular to first gen wp devices. I would accept a non-formal support of flashing older divices, with some assited recovery of apps and data. We have to remember that the phone industry is NOT the pc industry, NEW phones make money, NOT supporting old ones.

MetroNative said,

If you consider Nokia's stated determination to drive down the price of WP devices, specifically for emerging and smaller markets. Why then would Microsoft build WP8 not run on lower spec'd hardware simular to first gen wp devices. I would accept a non-formal support of flashing older divices, with some assited recovery of apps and data. We have to remember that the phone industry is NOT the pc industry, NEW phones make money, NOT supporting old ones.


Agreed. It wouldn't make any sense. I call nonsense on anonymous sources. We should really wait to see what Microsoft says, not take this as gospel...