Windows Phone 7 predicted to significantly outsell iPhone by 2015

Microsoft has been pushing their new smartphone OS, Windows Phone 7, pretty heavily. Between TV commercials and over the top in-show product placement, it seems like the OS is everywhere even though it is currently trailing behind the big players like Android and Apple’s iOS. That may soon change, as technology predictor IDC believes that Microsoft’s mobile operating system will catapult to second place by 2015.

In their forecast, IDC is predicting that the worldwide market for smartphones will increase by roughly 50% this year with Apple taking 3rd place behind both Android and Symbian. The most interesting prediction, however, is that while Android is expected to retain its lead in 2015 with nearly 50% of the smartphone market, Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile are expected to combine for over 20% of the market putting it firmly in second place ahead of Apple’s iPhone. The thought is that the strong worldwide branding that Nokia enjoys will help Microsoft sell the phone well throughout the world, even though the first product from this venture is not expected to ship until 2012.

While it currently sounds foolish, there is a certain amount of logic behind the predictions if looked at from the global perspective. A report last year by Cellular-News showed that Nokia was the most searched for brand of phones in India by a 3:1 margin over the next highest rival, Samsung. China is also a very pro-Nokia country so if Nokia and Microsoft create a good product it could very well bring the two companies great rewards.

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57 Comments

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For Microsoft's sake I'm hoping they'll have something newer than Windows Phone 7 by 2015... Emphasis on the "7".

This prediction assumes that all Nokia's 20% of Symbian users will move to WP7 , which is foolish at best. Is is more logical that those using the open sourced Symbian will move to Android (along with the huge number of developers).

alexalex said,
This prediction assumes that all Nokia's 20% of Symbian users will move to WP7 , which is foolish at best. Is is more logical that those using the open sourced Symbian will move to Android (along with the huge number of developers).

Really because I interpret it to mean 14% of Symbian users will move to Microsoft's OS, while the existing MS customers will stay.

What makes me smile is that some of you laugh at these predictions and then go on to make one yourselves! Now that's ironic

Hahahahahaha basically.

Android, iPhone, RIM, Windows would be my guess. Windows and RIM interchangeable at that point.

Septimus said,
Android, iPhone, RIM, Windows would be my guess. Windows and RIM interchangeable at that point.

I would predict Microsoft's Phone OS to be at the top in three years time. By then the patent police will have ended Android.

I think they're right in predicting that SOMEBODY will take away Symbian's market by 2014; it's a dying breed for sure. But three years in that market is a lifetime. Look at three years prior and post the iPhone launch; it was a total game changer and there's nothing to say something like that won't come along again.

Steeley said,
I think they're right in predicting that SOMEBODY will take away Symbian's market by 2014; it's a dying breed for sure. But three years in that market is a lifetime. Look at three years prior and post the iPhone launch; it was a total game changer and there's nothing to say something like that won't come along again.

You're right but there is also nothing to say that Windows Phone 7 isn't that device.

Glassed Silver said,
That is foolish at best, as denne has said: such long term predictions are far from serious.

Individuals only predict for fun, and for them maybe it is foolish to try. However developers in companies of any size have to decide who they will devote resources to over the next few years. They cannot work effectively without at least a medium term strategy, and for them, however difficult it is to predict the future, they have to try.

For what it's worth, this prediction looks solid. iPhone won't grow because Apple will never be interested in the mass market; their audience is the high end. Blackberry will hold its own in businesses but fall slightly mainly with consumers. WP7 will probably not grow much in its own strength, but as these figures suggest, will take much of the market Nokia had. Yeah, I think these are realistic. Let's see what happens!

Timble said,

Individuals only predict for fun, and for them maybe it is foolish to try. However developers in companies of any size have to decide who they will devote resources to over the next few years. They cannot work effectively without at least a medium term strategy, and for them, however difficult it is to predict the future, they have to try.

For what it's worth, this prediction looks solid. iPhone won't grow because Apple will never be interested in the mass market; their audience is the high end. Blackberry will hold its own in businesses but fall slightly mainly with consumers. WP7 will probably not grow much in its own strength, but as these figures suggest, will take much of the market Nokia had. Yeah, I think these are realistic. Let's see what happens!

For fun? They are financial experts that are looking where others should invest their billions of dollars..

denne said,
Predicting four years ahead in the tech industry is pretty foolish.

Its how you make money in finance.. you need to make predictions so you dont just analyse things day by day.. Smartphone market is starting to saturate so they can make predictions like this unlike the tablet industry where they say things like (Apple = 75 % Others = 25 %) because it is so new

UndergroundWire said,

Wrong in so many ways. Consider that iPhone 5 is months away.

Yup.. and this is why no one will buy an Iphone for months..

UndergroundWire said,

Wrong in so many ways. Consider that iPhone 5 is months away.

Apple tipsters with decent track records beg to differ...search on wired iphone 5

schubb2003 said,

Apple tipsters with decent track records beg to differ...search on wired iphone 5

Can you people read? He said by 2015 Windows Phone 7 will outsell iPhone 4.

a) By 2015, iPhone 4 will be obsolete. The iPhone 9 will most likely be released after Steve Jobs has long been dead.
b) By 2015, I doubt Microsoft will call that phone "Windows Phone 7". It will be called Windows Phone 7.1 then 7.5 then 7.5.1, 7.5.3, 7.5.5. Shortly after they will release Kin2 which will be considered a failure after 5 months.

furthermore...

c) By 2020 Google will be in negotiations to buy Microsoft.
d) By 2025 Google will have been accused of brain washing the public with there subliminal advertisements. The majority of the people don't believe it.
e) By 2026 everyone will be Google Fanboys

I think people fail to realize the enterprise potential that Windows Phone 7 has in it. I currently use one in my job and it's taken a page out of the old Apple advertising "It just works". It will be interesting to see how the phone integrates with Lync 2010, it already works flawlessly with Sharepoint and Activesync.

With that said, the consumer market is a whole different ball game and anything is possible I guess. 18 months ago who would have guessed Android would be in it's current position, not me for one.

P.S. That product placement linked in the article is shockin'.

alexalex said,
By 2015 Windows Phone will disappear.

Yup, because Microsoft will have dropped the "Phone" part of the name by then.

apowers said,

Yes, Android currently has taken over iOS in the US market.

It shocked the hell out of me when I found that out!

I domt know why but it did haha

HQ Mattster said,
But there was no way of knowing that MS & Nokia would form a partnership when that prediction was made.

The prediction was made yesterday.. so i think they knew.

Ashmir said,
IDC predicted in 2010 Symbian would be market leader in 2014...

+1 .

Also, even if by some miracle WP7 DID start out-selling iphones, how many would be using out of date software and how many will ever receive officially pushed out updates? By bet is a very small percentage.

Simon_ said,

+1 .

Also, even if by some miracle WP7 DID start out-selling iphones, how many would be using out of date software and how many will ever receive officially pushed out updates? By bet is a very small percentage.


Fail, this is one of the reasons why you should choose WP7 over Android or other competitors...you will get ANY from MS directly...there is no fragmentation or old software...

bluefisch200 said,

there is no fragmentation or old software...

Once again, fragmentation (since 2.x came out) does not exist.

Ashmir said,
IDC predicted in 2010 Symbian would be market leader in 2014...

You're criticizing IDC for not having predicted that Microsoft would produce a mobile OS that's so compelling that Nokia would abandon its then-market leader OS in favor of it?

bj55555 said,

You're criticizing IDC for not having predicted that Microsoft would produce a mobile OS that's so compelling that Nokia would abandon its then-market leader OS in favor of it?

No, he is pointing out that it is impossible to predict how technology will change over 4 years.

apowers said,

Once again, fragmentation (since 2.x came out) does not exist.

They still sell tablets with 1.5 online that are not upgrade able..

draklin said,

No, he is pointing out that it is impossible to predict how technology will change over 4 years.


its not that hard considering that the growth of the Iphone in the past six months has been 0.1%.. This is because everyone with an Iphone buys another Iphone .. This does not cause market share growth..

The main market left for selling smartphones I believe is to older adults and this is a group that love WP7 because of the big buttons.. I have showed them Iphone/ WP7 and they seem to understand WP7 better.. This means that when an old person goes to buy a smartphone this is what they are looking for.. Kind of like when they buy a new computer and they just test out the keyboard and not how powerful it is.

Ashmir said,
IDC predicted in 2010 Symbian would be market leader in 2014...

also everyone laughed at the Iphone when it first came out about being a useless device.. Dont underestimate this OS