Canalys: Windows Phone to grow 400% in the next 4 years

Microsoft’s bold bet on Windows Phone is starting to gain solid traction in the marketplace, and a new report suggests the platform will see serious growth in the next four years. While the transition from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone has had its share of ups and downs, technology analytic firm Canalys highlights that they believe Windows Phone will grow substantially over the next four years.

The growth will come from additional vendors stepping up and seriously pursuing Windows Phone to the likes of Nokia, the firm believes. The Finnish phone maker has shown that Windows Phone is a versatile platform and scales incredibly well, which is allowing Nokia to enter the low-end smartphone market with high quality devices. Because Windows Phone can move into this territory so easily, Canalys believes this will drive adoption of the platform and solidify Microsoft as the third platform on the market.

During this same period, Canalys believes that Android will continue to grow to top 1 billion smartphone shipments in 2017 and Apple will see a decline in market share from 19.5 to 14.1 percent of the market.

Of course, this information is a projection and anything could change over the next four years, including Apple becoming highly aggressive in the emerging market segment that could dampen Microsoft’s growth too.

Only time will tell if this report pans out, but it would seem that Canalys is bullish on Windows Phone at the moment, and for a company who is about to undergo a reorganization, that can only mean good things from the Windows Phone camp.

Source: Canalys

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This report assumes nothing will change. A very dangerous assumption in the technology sector. What happens if, as is widely reported, the Asian handset manufacturers (Samsung, Huawei, ZTE, HTC) dump Android for the new version of Tizen that also runs Android apps?

This is why these guys do market research why smarter guys make the market.

Realistically it's impossible to predict the market in 5 years.

If you went back to mid 2008 do you remember what the top dog was? Wasn't android...it didn't exist yet. Wasn't apple. Wasn't the old Windows Mobile or even Blackberry...

It was symbian.

So, in a prediction biased to WP (tips: only WP grow), Android is still the king of the hill.

It is good to know.

Also
"and for a company who is about to undergo a reorganization, that can only mean good things from the Windows Phone camp."

Reorganization means that everything goes bad. And what will happen after the reorganization is just speculation.

Brony said,
Reorganization means that everything goes bad. And what will happen after the reorganization is just speculation.

Doesn't look like you have ever worked in a corporate environment. Reorgs/Restructures are part and parcel of big organisations. Restructures generally occur to facilitate changes in future goals/vision. "Change is the only constant".

400% growth = 9% of the market over the next 4 years. I love Windows Phone, but let's face it, these huge YOY growth figures are only going to translate into only a portion of the market. Android is dominating. Samsung is killing every single OEM out there. It's a mess. Android was supposed to be about "choice" and "innovation" but all we get these days is a specs race and gimmicky features like Air Gestures and Blinkfeed

FalseAgent said,
400% growth = 9% of the market over the next 4 years. I love Windows Phone, but let's face it, these huge YOY growth figures are only going to translate into only a portion of the market. Android is dominating. Samsung is killing every single OEM out there. It's a mess. Android was supposed to be about "choice" and "innovation" but all we get these days is a specs race and gimmicky features like Air Gestures and Blinkfeed

Yes. As the article says. The prediction is 12.7% marketshare within 4 years. That's not unbelievable and nothing to scoff at. 12.7% of a huge number is a huge number.

Hey, can I make a prediction? I think that Windows phone will get more share from android than from apple, i also predict that BlackBerry will have less than 1% of the shere at 2017.

Predictions apart, I hope WP gets a 1000% Grow!

GP007 said,
While it is growing slow in the US it is growing faster in other places.

It is growing in Countries where Nokia was a strong seller, like Italy. It is the Nokia factor that is pushing the growth not the OS which might, and I reiterate might, mean some problem for MS down the road.

Fritzly said,

It is growing in Countries where Nokia was a strong seller, like Italy. It is the Nokia factor that is pushing the growth not the OS which might, and I reiterate might, mean some problem for MS down the road.

The OS plays a factor, even if it's Nokia. Look at Nokia before WP, if it was just Nokia as the brand and the OS wasn't a factor then Symbian wouldn't have fallen off a cliff as quick as it did for them.

Here in China, nobody buys "Android phones". They buy Samsung or Huawei or ZTE or HTC. In the world's largest markets there is zero OS tribalism like in the USA. If Samsung was to switch OSes tomorrow nobody here would notice or care.

psionicinversion said,
by 2017 apple will be broke and can only give there wares away as a free gift with every meal in a homeless shelter
Nah.
But what could happen by next year is that, Android will have 80% of the world market and Nokia and Apple will split the remaining 20% equally together.

Apple WILL NEVER go low end. That's what makes apple apple. They only sell overpriced products, and that's how they make massive profits. If they went low end, they risk the people buying their premium stuff to go for the cheap stuff,and that will kill their profits. That will also kill their brand image. Apple will no longer be able to sell over priced stuff ever again.

vcfan said,
Apple WILL NEVER go low end. That's what makes apple apple. They only sell overpriced products, and that's how they make massive profits. If they went low end, they risk the people buying their premium stuff to go for the cheap stuff,and that will kill their profits. That will also kill their brand image. Apple will no longer be able to sell over priced stuff ever again.
I would like to know what you consider a lowend phone or highend for that matter?

Here is how I see it. The iPhone has not been a high end device since after the iPhone 4.

Highend = 1280x720 or 1920x1080 display, quadcore CPU, Snapdragon 320 (or better), 2GB of RAM and at least a 4.3" screen

Mid-range - 1136x960 or 960x540 display, dualcore CPU, snapdragon 220 GPU or less (or similar) 1GB RAM, 4"

Lowend - anything lower than midrange.

You said Apple would never make a lowend phone? They still actually make the iPhone 3GS which is a lowend device. The iPhone 4 by todays standard even in a fancy case is a lowend phone which they still make.

Lowend has nothing to do with the phone being made of poly-carbonate or plastic. Which seems to be what you are hinting at. Just remember the first iPhones up to the 3GS were ALL "plastic". If plastic is your definition of lowend, then honestly you have no idea. Rumor has it Apple is going back to making a poly-carbonate based device to handle lower cost sales markets...in other words the low end.

The iPad Mini is a low end device even if you don't see it that way. It is using the iPhone 4S hardware which today would be mid-ranged by my own definition. However compared to the other iPad avail the 4 and the 3, it is the low end amongst them. In my opinion the iPad 3 is more top end compared to the 4 because of the higher resolution. Which shows it was nothing more than a sales gimmick as they didn't even keep it for the iPad 4 which is why I didn't buy one. I still have my 3 and will keep it until they make something better or stop supporting it.

Saying Apple would never go lowend is kinda delusional. The fact is, is Apple doesn't compete in emerging markets they will simply be outsold as they are right now. This article is alluding to the fact that since Nokia can compete against Google in that market, they stand to game significant share and since Apple refused to do so until its to late, it won't matter when they try.

Apple claimed they could never make a small device that wasn't garbage, yet they made the iPad Mini.

like I said,apple is not interested in low margin products. they got massively outsold in the PC business,yet they decided to continue taking it in the rear and continue with their arrogance in selling overpriced product.

vcfan said,
like I said,apple is not interested in low margin products. they got massively outsold in the PC business,yet they decided to continue taking it in the rear and continue with their arrogance in selling overpriced product.

So a strategy that focus on the high segment of the market is based on arrogance and will fail? It does not seem to me that Porsche, Ferrari or Rolex are failing companies....

Fritzly said,

So a strategy that focus on the high segment of the market is based on arrogance and will fail? It does not seem to me that Porsche, Ferrari or Rolex are failing companies....

who said fail? I did say they make massive profits. Pricing their products so high leads them to a small share everytime. last quarter for example,they lost almost 6% worldwide smartphone sales marketshare. Apple refuses to change their strategy because they are arrogant. And that's why im saying they will never start competing in the low end. There is precedent for this kind of stuff. Even if you want to go with,well they did release the ipad mini. Yeah exactly, when they started losing share,they released an ipad mini, but even that isn't low end. they still make the same margins as the base bigger one. why do you think they priced it the way they priced it? they couldn't possible make less margins, the horror. That's arrogance my friend. In Europe,windows phone has creeped to more than 1/3 of iphone sales, and this doesn't include figures of the low end nokia 520.

Low share is a dangerous game. Is it sustainable to keep selling high priced high margin product in the long run? One mistake,and you're toast.

Microsoft for example can afford to make drastic changes to their products like Windows because they have a huge base. Windows 8 for example may have turned a few people off in the process, but that's the beauty of having marketshare. you can push boundaries and push your product further,even if it makes some people not happy in the short term. If you start doing that with low share,you've essentially killed your product. You cant possibly advance further.

@TechieXP, by your logic, a 920 isnt a high end phone either. While it is, even though it only has 2 cores. And its PPI is huge, don't need any higher (or you tell me you can distinguish the pixels without using some form of zooming in?)

I'm personally seeing fast uptake of wp in the uk amongst my friend and customers along with an increase in randomly spotted phones. Its highly advertised over here and the carriers seem to have warmed to it considerably.

I have been in Germany in the Tmobile shop and some people asked the woman their for a new phone and i told the guy (me as a customer) to get a windows phone. The employee said that they had all bad experience with WP and offered them a s3 mini. so sad

-adrian- said,
I have been in Germany in the Tmobile shop and some people asked the woman their for a new phone and i told the guy (me as a customer) to get a windows phone. The employee said that they had all bad experience with WP and offered them a s3 mini. so sad

i cant talk for showroom staff but doesn't surprise me, they tend to be biased and have little tech knowledge so they are slow to change opinions (in my experience). But the carriers themselves seem to be advertising wp directly more and more with deals and other offers, through social and direct marketing. The sales staff need to leave their opinions at the door and give impartial advise.

I dont get it, if they would sell them a WP, the customer wont come back complaining why its riddled with virus, slow as a brick or why it cant receive the latest features they hear about.
Or give em an iPhone or WP device and be done with it?

You have seen all the reports lately where it keeps growing by 1% each time, right?

It's a great OS, especially for the less technically inclined who do not want to shell out for an iPhone. A $130 Lumia 521 works great for those kinds of people. I've recommended that phone to many.

Yeah, I have.. I don't see it growing as fast as they are saying/hoping.. They are good phones for the price.. They also have great Cameras.. Not trying to start a flame war.. which this community has been in the mood for as of lately.

This is worldwide marketshare so American sales are only part of it. There are parts of the world that it is seeing some real signs of success with nokia's handsets.

mrp04 said,
You have seen all the reports lately where it keeps growing by 1% each time, right?

It's a great OS, especially for the less technically inclined who do not want to shell out for an iPhone. A $130 Lumia 521 works great for those kinds of people. I've recommended that phone to many.

The 1% growth is in the US mostly, the rate of growth in other places is different.

As per the data Kantar posted:

Germany : 6.4% +2.3%
GB : 8.4% +4.4%
France 6.2% +3.7%
Italy 10.5% +3.8%

So really, the US is the slowest market at this time but overall since 2012, WP has grew 3% overall in just the EU5 (5 major EU nations). You also have to take into account any future growth acceleration. At some point you hit a % where a product will either flatten out and grow very slow/peak or it will accelerate. We could see it accelerate more by the end of 2013 for example.

GP007 said,

The 1% growth is in the US mostly, the rate of growth in other places is different.

As per the data Kantar posted:

Germany : 6.4% +2.3%
GB : 8.4% +4.4%
France 6.2% +3.7%
Italy 10.5% +3.8%

So really, the US is the slowest market at this time but overall since 2012, WP has grew 3% overall in just the EU5 (5 major EU nations). You also have to take into account any future growth acceleration. At some point you hit a % where a product will either flatten out and grow very slow/peak or it will accelerate. We could see it accelerate more by the end of 2013 for example.

Right. When you start with a small marketshare then a small increase in marketshare can be a huge increase in total number. With your data it shows that WP grew by 100% in that period. It's not far-fetched at all for WP to grow from 2.4% to 12.7% marketshare in 4 years.

It could grow that fast if it keeps improving, and if Apple remains stagnant and doesn't do anything significant with iOS 7.

mrp04 said,
You have seen all the reports lately where it keeps growing by 1% each time, right?

It's a great OS, especially for the less technically inclined who do not want to shell out for an iPhone. A $130 Lumia 521 works great for those kinds of people. I've recommended that phone to many.

Yea there are a lot of cheaper devices that are actually pretty decent. Lumia 620 has pretty good specs for the price point too.