Microsoft being too modest with Surface Sales estimations?

[spudtrooper]

You can't watch a single channel, open many magazines, listen to many radio stations or surf many websites without seeing an advertisement for the Surface. If Microsoft "only" planned on shipping 1-3 million this year, isn't this advertising a little crazy for those numbers?

I think the market severely underestimated Microsoft's supply chain & distribution as well as means to make windows 8 & surface penetrate the market and i'm curious if MS is just going balls out to totally crush market expectations for next period.

watching closely Bing may even prove to be profitable as their growth of Azure and wrapping their own services around it may finally get them over that cost hump that has been hurting them for ages.

[tsupersonic]

Maybe it will sell well, or maybe it won't. Let's just wait for numbers, rather than speculate eh? ;)

[spudtrooper]

Maybe it will sell well, or maybe it won't. Let's just wait for numbers, rather than speculate eh? ;)

I can't help but speculate when its overwhelming how balls to the wall they have gone to push this product!

[+LogicalApex MVC]

Well pushing Surface is also a major push for Windows 8 and Windows 8 Tablet (RT) so you can expect them to push the device well in excess of their supply. We won't know what the real numbers are like until we get them. There are a lot of things that need to be vetted about any sales figures. Such as:

How many have sold?

How many have been returned?

What is the defect rate?

Is the Surface cannibalizing tablets from other OEMs?

etc..

We will get all of these details with Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 numbers.

[ahhell]

Well pushing Surface is also a major push for Windows 8 and Windows 8 Tablet (RT) so you can expect them to push the device well in excess of their supply. We won't know what the real numbers are like until we get them. There are a lot of things that need to be vetted about any sales figures. Such as:

How many have sold?

How many have been returned?

What is the defect rate?

Is the Surface cannibalizing tablets from other OEMs?

etc..

We will get all of these details with Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 numbers.

You really can't stop yourself from commenting in every Surface thread, can you?

:s

[+Majesticmerc MVC]

You have to remember that coming into the tablet market, Microsoft are now the outsider. This is a landscape dominated by iOS and Android, so Microsoft are pushing surface...

(a) to try and push Microsoft products into the mainstream of the tablet market, and...

(b) use Surface to push the Metro/Modern UI/Whatever interface, which has been controversially received to say the least.

Surface means much more to Microsoft than pure sales, they're pushing their OS reboot and image as a "cool guy" in the wake of ever growing competition from the likes of Apple, and Google as well.

[+LogicalApex MVC]

You really can't stop yourself from commenting in every Surface thread, can you?

:s

They seem to be what is filling up my Quick Spy so I end up reading a fair bit of them and then offering a comment every so often. If my contributions have been worthless and serving only to devalue the discussion I'll reduce my participation in Surface related threads. I'm content with just reading threads and refraining from jumping into them.

I'll be sure to try to post only when there is considerable value to add to Surface threads going forward.

[HawkMan]

Is the Surface cannibalizing tablets from other OEMs?

How can it cannibalize something that doesn't exist ?

[+LogicalApex MVC]

How can it cannibalize something that doesn't exist ?

Dell is selling Windows 8 RT tablets. I'm sure more will jump on with it between now and the end of Q1 2013...

It will be interesting to see what affect the Surface will have on these OEMs. It might have a negligible impact or it might not. The numbers will be the only way to know.

[+Eternal Tempest MVC]

Advertising =/= Sales

Ex. Microsoft's Kin

Not saying Surface is doing as poor as the Kin however.

[.Neo]

You really can't stop yourself from commenting in every Surface thread, can you?

:s

Instead of constantly calling out others maybe you can try to actually participate in the conversation once in a while.

[spudtrooper]

Advertising =/= Sales

Ex. Microsoft's Kin

Not saying Surface is doing as poor as the Kin however.

Why bring this crap up? The kin wasn't even advertised, it was aborted at birth and written off and was a tail end product that evolved from their purchase of another company.

[FMH]

Judging by the lines and interest, I would say it is selling pretty well.

And that may in turn rejuvenate the Windows Phone ecosystem.

[.Neo]

You can't watch a single channel, open many magazines, listen to many radio stations or surf many websites without seeing an advertisement for the Surface. If Microsoft "only" planned on shipping 1-3 million this year, isn't this advertising a little crazy for those numbers?

I think you have to look at things beyond the scope of Surface alone. Every Surface commercial is also publicity for Windows and the company as a whole.

[spudtrooper]

I think you have to look at things beyond the scope of Surface alone. It's also a great way to generate awareness about Windows 8 and Microsoft's new identity.

Oh, I fully expect that there is a symbiotic relationship between advertising surface and getting windows 8 market share, no doubt. I just think the focus on Surface so much shows that there may be more to the surface equation than we were led on to believe :)

[.Neo]

Oh, I fully expect that there is a symbiotic relationship between advertising surface and getting windows 8 market share, no doubt. I just think the focus on Surface so much shows that there may be more to the surface equation than we were led on to believe :)

Surface is basically Microsoft's flagship device and a great way to show off Windows RT/8's capabilities. It could very well be their initial Surface shipment estimates were on the low side to cover themselves in case the device wouldn't sell as well as they might have really hoped. I mean look at what happened to Apple during the iPhone 5 launch. All these self-proclaimed analysts predicted insane shipment volumes. When Apple didn't deliver to those unrealistic standards people acted disappointed and their stock fell. By saying you only expect so ship an X amount of units you basically protect yourself against that. But who knows what Microsoft's real reasoning is. :p

[HawkMan]

Dell is selling Windows 8 RT tablets. I'm sure more will jump on with it between now and the end of Q1 2013...

It will be interesting to see what affect the Surface will have on these OEMs. It might have a negligible impact or it might not. The numbers will be the only way to know.

So ? it can't cannibalize a market that didn't exist before MS themselves entered it. they're just competing like everyone else in a new market segment. if all the other oem had been selling RT tablets for a year or more, sure, but they haven't.

[Growled Member]

They seem to be what is filling up my Quick Spy so I end up reading a fair bit of them and then offering a comment every so often. If my contributions have been worthless and serving only to devalue the discussion I'll reduce my participation in Surface related threads. I'm content with just reading threads and refraining from jumping into them.

I'll be sure to try to post only when there is considerable value to add to Surface threads going forward.

I enjoy your comments and you always add to a thread. Please don't let them get to you.

[Subhadip]

Firstly, I would like to remind you that no 10 inch tablet apart from iPad has sold even close to those numbers. The iPad is the de-facto standard and it takes a lot of push for regular people to even check out something else. Especially if it's a brand new and unproven ecosystem. They had to make an extraordinary buzz or the thing wouldn't sell, as simple as that. Or should I say, establish.

If Microsoft end up selling 5 million Surface RTs in a quarter I would say it is a huge success.

[BajiRav]

Dell is selling Windows 8 RT tablets. I'm sure more will jump on with it between now and the end of Q1 2013...

It will be interesting to see what affect the Surface will have on these OEMs. It might have a negligible impact or it might not. The numbers will be the only way to know.

That tablet was not going to sale much with or without Surface.

[+LogicalApex MVC]

So ? it can't cannibalize a market that didn't exist before MS themselves entered it. they're just competing like everyone else in a new market segment. if all the other oem had been selling RT tablets for a year or more, sure, but they haven't.

Err what? The tablet market existed well before the Surface came out... Even still, you can cannibalize sales in a new market...

If Microsoft takes significant market share from its OEM partners then the Surface will have a cannibalizing effect on the Windows RT market. This is a cannibalizing issue because Microsoft is competing directly against its partners so every Windows RT sale MS earns is one that their OEM partners would have earned without them being in the market. But I shouldn't have to explain this, it is pretty straight forward.

How much of a cannibalizing effect the Surface has on the market is of extreme importance. The success of the Surface would be a big win for MS when it comes to Windows RT, and Windows 8, but if its success dwarfs its OEM partners then it will upset industry conditions greatly for MS. It would potentially lead to its major PC OEM partners pursuing alternative OSs for their tablets and shunning Windows RT. Will that hurt MS? Who knows, but it will be the biggest shift in the PC industry in over 3 decades. It will also be a strong test of MS to convert themselves into a consumer brand making all their hardware in house.

All of this is speculation though, as I said we need to see Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 numbers before we can start to make sense of what is really happening out there.

[HawkMan]

Err what? The tablet market existed well before the Surface came out... Even still, you can cannibalize sales in a new market...

No it didn't, Tablet PC's however existed. that is of course the problem with naming the Slate form computers tablets, since they're not tablets, they're Slates or Pads. Tablet PC's is compeltely different from these new tablets/slates/pads.

MS created this Market for windows based slates, and they're first to market. by your definition everyone who sells a slate form WinRT computer is a cannibal. MS simply competes in this market the same as it's OEM partners, they're not even the cheapest, and they put the same license cost for windows on top of their hardware as their OEM partners, do, there is no cannibalizing going on. just competition.

[+LogicalApex MVC]

No it didn't, Tablet PC's however existed. that is of course the problem with naming the Slate form computers tablets, since they're not tablets, they're Slates or Pads. Tablet PC's is compeltely different from these new tablets/slates/pads.

MS created this Market for windows based slates, and they're first to market. by your definition everyone who sells a slate form WinRT computer is a cannibal. MS simply competes in this market the same as it's OEM partners, they're not even the cheapest, and they put the same license cost for windows on top of their hardware as their OEM partners, do, there is no cannibalizing going on. just competition.

MS can't compete with its OEM partners without cannibalization occurring, but I'm not going to keep explaining this simple concept. Competing against MS isn't the same as competing against other OEMs in this space, for obvious reasons.

The tablet market existed before the Surface. Last I remember the Kindle Fire, iPad, Google Nexus 7, and a litany of Android tablets dotted the landscape prior to the arrival of the Surface...

[TruckWEB]

The fact that you can't buy Microsoft Surface in store right now must have an impact. They don't have Microsoft Store everywhere and for things like that, I tend to prefer to play with the device before buying. Surely I'm not alone that prefer to try before buying so the fact that you can buy Surface online does little for me.

But every BestBuy, FutureShop have all the iPad or Android tablet you'd like. So, MS will have a hard time....

As of right now, no store close to where I live have a WinRT/WinPro tablet.

[+LogicalApex MVC]

The fact that you can't buy Microsoft Surface in store right now must have an impact. They don't have Microsoft Store everywhere and for things like that, I tend to prefer to play with the device before buying. Surely I'm not alone that prefer to try before buying so the fact that you can buy Surface online does little for me.

But every BestBuy, FutureShop have all the iPad or Android tablet you'd like. So, MS will have a hard time....

As of right now, no store close to where I live have a WinRT/WinPro tablet.

Yep, for sure that will have an impact. Microsoft chose to limit the availability of the Surface to reduce the cannibalization effect that HawkMan thinks doesn't exist...