How long will the current computing paradigm last?

[Wyn6]

So, based on discussions of Windows 8.x and the current W10 Tech Preview, I got to wondering. The argument throughout the W8.x era has been, "Tiles suck and are useless! Give me back my icons and Start Menu! We don't need change for the sake of change!" or, "Icons are so last century! Live Tiles are the next big thing! We need to move forward in time! You're just afraid of change!"

 

Considering the two sides of this often heated battle, a question has occurred to me. How long do you think the icon based UI will be around? How about desktops, Start Menus, Docks, etc.? How long will the mouse and or keyboard be the dominant ways to interact with said UI?

 

Are we looking at 10 years? 20? 50? Forever? And, if you see a terminus for this paradigm, what do you think IS the next big thing? In what ways will computing depart from what we've known for a quarter century or more?

 

Again, just curious as to what people's thoughts were on this.

[The Evil Overlord]

Well, assuming the trend from windows stays as is, (windows 3 forward...) I'll probably think at least 20 years, I'm basing my theory on past records and nothing else, however, if Microsoft is indeed 'listening' to consumers, and the wave of anti metro is stronger, I'd probably think less time, but then who knows what will be brought to the table due to them being forced to change....

 

Microsoft will only listen if they make huge losses in scale of their turnover and profits, so I feel comfortable with my 20 year prediction, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[Draconian Guppy]

Well, assuming the trend from windows stays as is, (windows 3 forward...) I'll probably think at least 20 years, I'm basing my theory on past records and nothing else, however, if Microsoft is indeed 'listening' to consumers, and the wave of anti metro is stronger, I'd probably think less time, but then who knows what will be brought to the table due to them being forced to change....

 

Microsoft will only listen if they make huge losses in scale of their turnover and profits, so I feel comfortable with my 20 year prediction, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

With the way technology is evolving, I agree with you, however, I state 20 years when we have completely, on an average jo level, left the icon UI behind

[SteveMackinnon]

I think that the current paradigm of using a keyboard / mouse / icons / tiles etc will continue until computers become integrated directly into human sensory systems.

 

ie. computers that can either read or predict thought processes and are seamlessly controlled just by thinking.

 

Until then / if we ever get there I think that the current paradigm is the best. They will 'add' things to it like touch (with tablets) and voice (siri / cortana) but the paradigm itself is the same IMO.

[Jose_49]

I'd say until something more practical comes and supersedes what we are currently using. The question is when? We still do not have that answer. According to Erich Schmidt we will be experiencing a 20,000 year development period in this century. If we give some thought, most of the computing changes happened when Microsoft introduced Windows Vista and Apple introduced the iPhone. And it's been only 8 years since both. 

[MS Bob 11]

When I asked on Classic Shell's Facebook page how many users were looking forward to using touch on any device with mouse+keyboard available, almost all of them said they had no interest in using touchscreens: https://www.facebook.com/classicshell/posts/852991548073036

[Max Norris]

When I asked on Classic Shell's Facebook page how many users were looking forward to using touch on any device with mouse+keyboard available, almost all of them said they had no interest in using touchscreens

Just my opinion, but I wouldn't take that as factual evidence as a blanket "everybody hates touch" as ClassicShell's audience are people who want that classic setup to begin with, people who do use a mixed environment aren't as likely to know that poll even exists. For myself, it depends. When I'm sitting at my desktop, nah no need for a touch screen (and I do use ClassicShell on most of my Windows systems, although that may change with 10, we'll see). When I'm on my Surface, hell yes I love it, even though I do have a keyboard and mouse availble.. depends on what I'm doing. With the line getting blurred between desktop and mobile, it's not cut and dry anymore, and that's probably going to continue as the tech keeps improving. Not saying desktops are dying as I don't see that ever happening, but it's going to be less predominant than these "hybrids" sooner or later.

[123456789A]

I think humans will continue to use icons until their demise.

 

However, artificial intelligence will continue to evolve and eventually surpass and replace humans.

[The Evil Overlord]

I think humans will continue to use icons until their demise.

 

However, artificial intelligence will continue to evolve and eventually surpass and replace humans.

lol I'm thinking of all those artificial intelligence movies now that decided humans are the enemy

[cooky560 Veteran]

As a big fan of the traditional desktop computer I personally have a fear that more & more tablet devices and closed markets are coming. Look at the (albeit failed) first steps towards closing the Windows Market with the Windows Store.

[firey]

I dunno.  The thing is, while mouse and keyboard is outdated.. it works best depending on situations.  I could never play WoW or HoTS with a pure touch screen, I think it would be too hard, I need the multiple inputs.  I think that while yes time-wise a lot of the things we use are getting older.. they are still the best way of doing things.

Until we get fully immersive VR where our body controls everything we can't change much.

[satysin]

There isn't anything wrong with a keyboard and mouse and working with icons, etc. though. Keyboards are more efficient at entering data than writing and a mouse is still better than touch as it does not obstruct the screen (well except for the tiny cursor) and it offers multiple inputs that we don't current have with touch (click and hold and drag).

 

Icons will evolve. Live Tiles are a great idea but the way Microsoft introduced them put most people off. Had they listened to the feedback from pretty much everyone during the development of Windows 8 we would have had a Live Tile enabled start menu like we are getting in Windows 10. Also replacing desktop icons with Live Tiles would have made more sense than limiting them to the start screen. They could have worked with the "show desktop" hot corner (bottom right) in Windows 7 (and I think Vista) to quickly show the desktop tiles for information.

 

I don't want to take this thread off course but Sinofsky really screwed Microsoft with his forced vision in Windows 8. It was stupid to have two totally different environments. Now Microsoft are working their ass off to try and undo the damage. Sadly they can't just dump the Modern UI so they are finding ways to shoe horn it into the classic desktop environment.

 

I am a life time Windows user but they way Microsoft have been doing things the past few years I don't really care for Windows any more. I have an iPhone and love it. I tried Windows Phone but it just doesn't feel right. I hate how Apps look with so much large text. I do love how so much information can be displayed with Live Tiles though. That is somewhere that they make a lot of sense. If iOS had a similar feature I would be in heaven.

 

Anyway back on topic

[+Warwagon MVC]

Well, I got that new HP 7 inch tablet. I think it's going to collect dust. I hate using tablets. For reading things maybe, but i'm trying to think what I'd use it for.

 

I just bought it because it was $79 and something to play with. But if I had a choice between that and my dual monitor couch computer, OMG, i'd choose the couch machine or laptop any day of the week.

 

The only thing tablet do is ###### me off. I usually end up taking 5x longer doing something.  If I was on a laptop or desktop i'd be done by now. Obvious i'm talking about a tablet with no keyboard, not something like the Surface.

 

Heck I even hate using Neowin with a tablet or phone for commenting and stuff. I get so frustrated. Between typing, editing text. 

 

Although I will say tablets are sort of useful for youtube and maybe facebook.

 

I dunno.  The thing is, while mouse and keyboard is outdated..

 

No they are not. In some cases dictating is faster, but a keyboard and mouse are STILL the best things for the job.

[DConnell Member]

So, based on discussions of Windows 8.x and the current W10 Tech Preview, I got to wondering. The argument throughout the W8.x era has been, "Tiles suck and are useless! Give me back my icons and Start Menu! We don't need change for the sake of change!" or, "Icons are so last century! Live Tiles are the next big thing! We need to move forward in time! You're just afraid of change!"

 

Considering the two sides of this often heated battle, a question has occurred to me. How long do you think the icon based UI will be around? How about desktops, Start Menus, Docks, etc.? How long will the mouse and or keyboard be the dominant ways to interact with said UI?

 

Are we looking at 10 years? 20? 50? Forever? And, if you see a terminus for this paradigm, what do you think IS the next big thing? In what ways will computing depart from what we've known for a quarter century or more?

 

Again, just curious as to what people's thoughts were on this.

 

The current paradigm of mouse & keyboard won't go away, but it will evolve and be added to. Originally it was just a keyboard, and the mouse was an addition. Now touch is being added to the mix. I think things will continue this way - the UI will change as new input methods come out, but mouse & keyboard (and perhaps touchscreens, which I find complementary to the other two devices rather than a replacement) will remain the basic method for most systems, with others being used as the situation requires. It won't be a case of using this or that or the other device, but whatever device or combination of devices is suited to the task.

 

Heck, I'm already using keyboard, touchpad, mouse, touchscreen and pen with my Surface Pro 2, and use any and all of them as the situation/mood demands. The keyboard and mouse remains the core of all that, however, and probably will for a long time.

 

And I'm not addressing the UI, because to me a particular UI and input device set need not be intrinsically linked. The Start Menu may require a mouse to be effective, but the mouse does not require the Start Menu and taskbar. (Otherwise how would we have used Win 3.1?)

[cooky560 Veteran]

I still have an issue with touch because I tend to sit about 2m from my desk meaning that touching my screen is uncomfortable and then there's the real dislike of the idea of someone touching my expensive 28" monitor.