Analyst: Nokia's Windows Phone 7 gamble "unlikely to be successful"

Nokia's move to launch a series of smartphones based on Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 operating system is "unlikely to be successful", according to a note from a financial analyst. AllThingsD.com reports that Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu stated its opinion after Nokia reported on Friday that it recorded a loss of 487 million euros in its last financial quarter and that it is losing market share in both regular mobile phones as well as smartphones.

In his analyst note, Ferragu states, "In a fast changing market, Nokia is losing ground very rapidly. The company lost significant market share again in the second quarter, 7pts in smartphones and 6pts in basic phones." In fact Nokia lost its title of the number one seller of smartphones in this quarter to Apple's iPhone. Nokia sold 16.7 million smartphones last quarter compared to Apple who announced earlier this week that it had sold 20.3 million iPhone units.

Ferragu stated that, "The collaboration with Microsoft now appears to us unlikely to be successful, as Nokia’s brand is losing ground too fast." Another issue for Nokia is the rise in popularity of phones based on Google's Android operating system. Ferragu stated, "Android has been clearly identified by management as being the major driver behind the current negative trend of Nokia, especially in Europe. The operating system grabbed 36 percent market share last quarter vs. 11 percent a year ago and we are concerned that against such momentum, no third ecosystem will have a chance to emerge." Nokia is scheduled to release its first phone with Windows Phone 7 by the end of 2011.

Report a problem with article
Previous Story

Google acquires company with facial recognition tech

Next Story

Oslo bombing scam hits Facebook

80 Comments

Commenting is disabled on this article.

Everyone is always so quick to count Microsoft out. When Microsoft first made Xbox, people laughed and wondered why Microsoft would enter the video game market against behemoths with more experienced as the likes of Nintendo and Sony.

They all scuffed at how the Xbox was just a modified PC and that it was going to suck and the games were going to suck too. % years later, Microsoft not only sells more system than the other 2 combined, they get priority on games as top titles are made for 360 first and then ported over to the PS and Wii

Microsoft even has a revolutionary accessoy that no other gaming platform has. While Sony took the Nintendo route and scuffed at Microsoft about the Kinect, the Kinect has turned out to be a huge hit being the fastest selling accessory in history. And now even PC's are going to get it and its being used in other industries too. Where is the "Move" in all this?

Being late to a market doesn't mean you cant be very competitive. Google ended up being 2 years behind iPhone by the time Android evolved enough to be a competitor. Can you tell Apple's iphone ever was top dog? Its top popularity dog and thats it.

if Microsoft can gain just 1/2 of Nokia's market with their device, that will be plenty to secure 3rd place. Gartner has already predicted 2nd place. Time will tell who is right. This guy just siounds like a Microsoft hater. And all those who agree just dont understand marketing.

Its the underdogs lately that have been doing all the winning. Google was an underdog, look at them now. Microsoft was the underdog w/Windows and Xbox and even office. look at them now.

In 2 years u all will be singing a whole new tune. As many did with the iOS vs Android debate.

I have a friend who is moving from Android to Win Phone 7 and another moving from iPhone to Win Phone 7, this says it all, Win Phone 7 is winning and Nokia made the right choice.

derekaw said,
I have a friend who is moving from Android to Win Phone 7 and another moving from iPhone to Win Phone 7, this says it all, Win Phone 7 is winning and Nokia made the right choice.

So we should all go to you for future projections? You're an idiot. I have friends who never heard of WP7. What does that mean? Absolutely nothing. Don't think that your two friends make up the entire demographic. You and your friends mean absolutely nothing other than being part of a minority of smartphone users. THAT'S IT!

derekaw said,
I have a friend who is moving from Android to Win Phone 7 and another moving from iPhone to Win Phone 7, this says it all, Win Phone 7 is winning and Nokia made the right choice.

In my circle of friends I am pretty well the only guy thats into tech gear as a hobby and passion and in my circle of friends I am the only one who has ever even heard of WP7, I have not seen one person using a WP7 device at any function or party, EVER, nor have I EVER heard it being spoke of.

Cash Money Billionaire said,

In my circle of friends I am pretty well the only guy thats into tech gear as a hobby and passion and in my circle of friends I am the only one who has ever even heard of WP7, I have not seen one person using a WP7 device at any function or party, EVER, nor have I EVER heard it being spoke of.

"Popularity" itself says nothing about quality, especially among party people.

DaveGreen said,

"Popularity" itself says nothing about quality, especially among party people.

erm....in the world of consumption its popularity>quality, it can be the highest of quality device of all time but if no one buys it then it is still a failure

Cash Money Billionaire said,

erm....in the world of consumption its popularity>quality, it can be the highest of quality device of all time but if no one buys it then it is still a failure

Well said.

This analysis is completely wrong or at least partial and inaccurate, because OEM are now realizing that Google is ignoring them in cases of patent infringement with Apple iPhone. They are realizing that choosing MS Windows Phone 7 was a better option and are re-investing in that direction (there's an article about this on engadget and wpcentral if I recall well).
This is a concept Elop understood well from the very beginning.

Is MS still selling more WM 6.x devices than WP7? A few months ago it was at least still the case. Before taking on the world, they should look for a quick way to change this fact.

I love wp7 (got an omnia7) but i don't think it will have a "big success"... and microsoft is not helping market outside US with poor services.

An "analyst" making such a prediction is clearly an indication of future nokia and WP7 success. When has has an "analyst" ever made a sensible and accurate prediction with the Tech Industry?

I've been saying this all along. People think that WP7 will become No. 2 by 2015 because of some stupid analysis that Nokia will retain all of it's customers and send them to WP7. Just silly. As much as I would love to see this happen (mostly because I hate Apple), here is a prediction: Android will still be No. 1; iOS will still be No. 2 past 2015. As to who will take No. 3 in and after 2015? That is yet undecided. Blackberry is not doing well as of late. Will Microsoft buy them? Who knows?

Android is to cellphones what Windows 98 was to PC's. It's the default. You have an alternative: Apple OS. Now, Windows is going to try to steal the 2nd place spot from Apple, by using one of the best hardware companies.

And an analysis thinks this won't happen and Nokia will fail, because great hardware with only a few apps doesn't work.

I suppose that same dude was telling Apple it should close up and give the money back to the shareholders, right?

The core numbers of Nokia aren't too bad and they are ever-increasing....it is just the market share which is falling...and that's got to happen due to iphone and android......When nokia comes out with windows phone 7, it will be in a level playing field with these players and can only go up, because it will be having a backing of a huge user base (Symbian) and the new ever-growing Windows Phone userbase/fanbase......

Nokia needs to get out of the business of producing 100 different devices every year. Jumping into Android would have resulted in a race to the bottom for them. What Android OEMs are doing is throwing crap on the wall to see what sticks. Every now and then there might be a mega-seller like the Galaxy S, but they are few and far between. Nokia needs no part of that game, because they're already doing that with Symbian, and look at their average selling prices for their models. They're making pennies on the dollar compared to Apple.

Like Apple currently does, Nokia needs to produce a single halo device for Windows Phone with the highest possible specs, and refresh that every 9 to 12 months. They could produce 1 or 2 other mid to high-end devices with slide out keyboard or smaller form factor, but that should be it. They should just market the crap out of these 2 or 3 devices as "THE NOKIA PHONE" and have it cross marketed as "Powered by Windows Phone" if they want to leverage Microsoft's marketing push.

bj55555 said,
Nokia needs to get out of the business of producing 100 different devices every year. Jumping into Android would have resulted in a race to the bottom for them. What Android OEMs are doing is throwing crap on the wall to see what sticks. Every now and then there might be a mega-seller like the Galaxy S, but they are few and far between. Nokia needs no part of that game, because they're already doing that with Symbian, and look at their average selling prices for their models. They're making pennies on the dollar compared to Apple.

Like Apple currently does, Nokia needs to produce a single halo device for Windows Phone with the highest possible specs, and refresh that every 9 to 12 months. They could produce 1 or 2 other mid to high-end devices with slide out keyboard or smaller form factor, but that should be it. They should just market the crap out of these 2 or 3 devices as "THE NOKIA PHONE" and have it cross marketed as "Powered by Windows Phone" if they want to leverage Microsoft's marketing push.


Well said

bj55555 said,
Nokia needs to get out of the business of producing 100 different devices every year. Jumping into Android would have resulted in a race to the bottom for them. What Android OEMs are doing is throwing crap on the wall to see what sticks. Every now and then there might be a mega-seller like the Galaxy S, but they are few and far between.

Ok so let me get this straight. The following are considered crap? They didn't sell at all, right?

HTC EVO 4G, Nexus S, Nexus S 4G, Droid / Droid 2 / Droid 3, Droid X / Droid X 2, Droid Incredible / Droid Incredible 2, HTC Thunderbolt, Droid Charge, LG Revolution, HTC G1 / HTC G2, myTouch 4G, Motorola Atrix, Samsung Infuse 4G, HTC Inspire 4G, should I keep going?

If you consider those phone crap, then guess what? Crap is beating WP7.

bj55555 said,
What Android OEMs are doing is throwing crap on the wall to see what sticks. Every now and then there might be a mega-seller like the Galaxy S, but they are few and far between.

Dude, if you haven't realised yet this is the foundation of the entire mobile industry. It's the principle Nokia has always worked on, it's the same principle the iphone was released on and android was considered.

Digitalx said,
Dude, if you haven't realised yet this is the foundation of the entire mobile industry. It's the principle Nokia has always worked on, it's the same principle the iphone was released on and android was considered.

Actually Apple are the only ones that didn't follow that crap system - IMHO this system has always been and will always be crap. They release 1 phone and it's updated on a yearly basis…

Remember how analysts predicted the death of Android when it had only 2% market share originally?

Yeah, shut the **** up Pierre. Also, how come this is reported by AllThingsD? Did Mossberg finally find something to make him feel good about himself?

PlogCF said,
Remember how analysts predicted the death of Android when it had only 2% market share originally?

Yeah, shut the **** up Pierre. Also, how come this is reported by AllThingsD? Did Mossberg finally find something to make him feel good about himself?

All things D? They're always condescending towards anything Microsoft, I really don't Like the Apple fanboy Mossberg who tries to hind behind some facade of journalistic integrity , he's an Apple PR hack and always will be.

PlogCF said,
Remember how analysts predicted the death of Android when it had only 2% market share originally?

Yeah, shut the **** up Pierre. Also, how come this is reported by AllThingsD? Did Mossberg finally find something to make him feel good about himself?

Throw a dart at the calendar and there will be some analyst predict the success or failure of he Windows phone platform. I'll just wait to see what Microsoft and Nokia do.

1) Nokia wasn't prepared to offer anything else that people were wanting, so the connection to WP7 and Nokia's success is a false correlation.

2) WP7 isn't even geared to be successful yet, with the WinCE 7.0 features not even reaching the devies untilt he September Mango update. Microsoft knew this, and chose to get people talking about the good and different things they could offer in the initial release last year, instead of waiting another year to release them. Either way, they knew the phone wouldn't have a chance to take off until 2012 at the earliest.

3) The Nokia - Microsoft deal not only about WP7, it is about Windows 8 tablets, and this is somehow left out, and a major disconnect when trying to establish Nokia's viability and using only WP7.

4) Based on #3, this becomes an important consideration: Windows 8 will change the landscape by going back to the NT heritage of multiple architecture support that is easy due to how NT is designed and the translation chip technology Microsoft is bringing with it so that existing software runs.

(If you are an OS engineer/theorist this is really cool, as NT is leveraging its object nature and the HAL and basically stuffing the HAL on a chip as needed to provide architecture translation/emulation. The HAL already does this even on x86, as the NT code is not directly written for the x86 architecture constructs)

So I say, whatever... I'm sure their predictions about the financial viability of Nokia were about as accurate as predicting the USA real-estate bust that dropped the global economy into a recession.

Nokia just needs to get their WP7 phone out and market it effectively. Hopefully it has some standout specifications and a good design.

I bought HTC Desire HD a month back...(i know that HD7 is available, but not with WP7 i want (better battery, front camera), so eventually I want a smartphone now, i cant afford iPhone 4 (in india, its apporx. twice the amount of Desire HD).

BUT, i am waiting for Nokia to release WP7, i knew them (been with Nokia phones many years - Battery & hardware lives upto expectation compared to other phones).
I am expecting a decent front camera + Mango + Topnotch battery life [which they can easily push into there hw design].
So, practically speaking, even though nokia looses share now to android etc, eventually next year on (2012+2013) with queues of WP7 phones, it will really flood in market..and people will buy it.

guruparan said,
I bought HTC Desire HD a month back...(i know that HD7 is available, but not with WP7 i want (better battery, front camera), so eventually I want a smartphone now, i cant afford iPhone 4 (in india, its apporx. twice the amount of Desire HD).

BUT, i am waiting for Nokia to release WP7, i knew them (been with Nokia phones many years - Battery & hardware lives upto expectation compared to other phones).
I am expecting a decent front camera + Mango + Topnotch battery life [which they can easily push into there hw design].
So, practically speaking, even though nokia looses share now to android etc, eventually next year on (2012+2013) with queues of WP7 phones, it will really flood in market..and people will buy it.

Not to mention that Nokia can help the WP7 Marketplace by introducing Carrier Billing and this will benefit all WP7 users as well.

guruparan said,
I bought HTC Desire HD a month back...(i know that HD7 is available, but not with WP7 i want (better battery, front camera), so eventually I want a smartphone now, i cant afford iPhone 4 (in india, its apporx. twice the amount of Desire HD).

BUT, i am waiting for Nokia to release WP7, i knew them (been with Nokia phones many years - Battery & hardware lives upto expectation compared to other phones).
I am expecting a decent front camera + Mango + Topnotch battery life [which they can easily push into there hw design].
So, practically speaking, even though nokia looses share now to android etc, eventually next year on (2012+2013) with queues of WP7 phones, it will really flood in market..and people will buy it.

Wait a second here...

I bought HTC Desire HD a month back...
i want (better battery, front camera)
.

Sorry to be harsh but HTC Desire HD probably has the worst battery life of any android device...

Digitalx said,

Sorry to be harsh but HTC Desire HD probably has the worst battery life of any android device...

Now that's something I won't disagree with!!!

I'm just going to bash this off as pessimism. It's very hard to predict if this is going to turn out well, but I think it will if they keep pushing at it.

Analyst are always making up ****. Some analyst think Windows Phone will be successful others think it will fail. No one knows. Microsoft simple does not have a good track record in the mobile phone market. Microsoft/Nokia.. It needs to meet or exceed competitors features if it doesn't I don't think it will last long. As for going with Android .... I am not so sure that it would have made difference ... The android market is already saturated. One more manufacturer would not make a difference. What they really needed to do was make decision screw symbian two years ago and go Android. Now is to late.

Melfster said,
Analyst are always making up ****. Some analyst think Windows Phone will be successful others think it will fail. No one knows. Microsoft simple does not have a good track record in the mobile phone market. Microsoft/Nokia.. It needs to meet or exceed competitors features if it doesn't I don't think it will last long. As for going with Android .... I am not so sure that it would have made difference ... The android market is already saturated. One more manufacturer would not make a difference. What they really needed to do was make decision screw symbian two years ago and go Android. Now is to late.

The problem is Windows Mobile. A lot of consumers had a horrible experience with it, I know I did, and as a result think that Windows Phone 7 is exactly the same without even trying it.

The strange thing is though that everyone I've allowed to try my Windows Phone love it after they tried it.

neo158 said,

The problem is Windows Mobile. A lot of consumers had a horrible experience with it, I know I did, and as a result think that Windows Phone 7 is exactly the same without even trying it.

The strange thing is though that everyone I've allowed to try my Windows Phone love it after they tried it.


So by "a lot of consumers" you mean just you.

ahhell said,

So by "a lot of consumers" you mean just you.

No, a lot of consumers dumped Windows Mobile for iOS when the iPhone came along and it's understandable as it was slow and bloated, however there are still businesses that use it as the software they have running on it won't run on WP7 anyway.

neo158 said,

No, a lot of consumers dumped Windows Mobile for iOS when the iPhone came along and it's understandable as it was slow and bloated, however there are still businesses that use it as the software they have running on it won't run on WP7 anyway.

For that last bloody time what does Windows Mobile have to do with Windows Phone 7?!?!? Oh right...NOTHING.

ahhell said,
For that last bloody time what does Windows Mobile have to do with Windows Phone 7?!?!? Oh right...NOTHING.

It has everything to do with it, maybe you should read up on what Windows Mobile was and how it relates to Windows Phone 7, seeing as they are both based on Windows CE.

The public perception of Windows Phone 7 has been tainted by Windows Mobile which was both slow and bloated with things the average consumer had no need for, such as business tools.

IMHO, this is one of the reasons why sales of WP7 devices are low atm.

I'm sick of these droid powered devices. It seems they are positioned from ultra low end to the highest segment I can imagine. But there is no way you can optimize an OS like that. eg. one of my friends has a high end HTC phone and it is dog slow to start up.

How the hell can something like this be so succesful? How?

mmyon said,
I'm sick of these droid powered devices. It seems they are positioned from ultra low end to the highest segment I can imagine. But there is no way you can optimize an OS like that. eg. one of my friends has a high end HTC phone and it is dog slow to start up.

I totally agree, my HTC Desire has the same hardware as my HD7 and it takes forever to boot.

As a quick comparison my HD7 went from HTC logo to ready to use in 38 seconds, my Desire was still on the HTC logo after those 38 seconds

How the hell can something like this be so succesful? How?

Because the only thing anyone who loves Android can see is the customisation and that's the only thing Android has going for it.

Edited by neo158, Jul 23 2011, 9:03pm :

mmyon said,
I'm sick of these droid powered devices. It seems they are positioned from ultra low end to the highest segment I can imagine. But there is no way you can optimize an OS like that. eg. one of my friends has a high end HTC phone and it is dog slow to start up.

How the hell can something like this be so succesful? How?

Well I guess it's unfortunate for those who keep booting their phone from scratch all the time. Easy fix is stop doing it just like on PC's.

neo158 said,

Because the only thing anyone who loves Android can see is the customisation and that's the only thing Android has going for it.

The think I like most about my Android phone is that it is mine. If I was to buy anything from Apple, it is theirs. I would not be (legally) able to make more than very cosmetic changes to it. I could not put a different operating system on it. I Would have no idea what was in the operating system because I "didn't need to".
At least with Android, people have looked at things. (I haven't as I can't.) If Apple does not approve of something on corporate, moral, moral or other grounds, it will not even appear in the store.
I will not tolerate some company telling me what to do with my own phone. That rules out aniPhone quite solidly then.

holdfast said,

The think I like most about my Android phone is that it is mine. If I was to buy anything from Apple, it is theirs. I would not be (legally) able to make more than very cosmetic changes to it. I could not put a different operating system on it. I Would have no idea what was in the operating system because I "didn't need to".
At least with Android, people have looked at things. (I haven't as I can't.) If Apple does not approve of something on corporate, moral, moral or other grounds, it will not even appear in the store.
I will not tolerate some company telling me what to do with my own phone. That rules out aniPhone quite solidly then.

I won't disagree, however, you can make a WP7 device "yours" just not to the extent of an Android device.

For me customisation is something that isn't a feature that's high on my list when shopping for a phone, what is a high on my list is whether the phone maintains it's speed at all times and functions perfectly when I need it to and, unfortunately, Android only covers the latter one for me.

I do own an HTC Desire and an HD7 and they are both great devices but the HD7 is the faster of the two for me.

Digitalx said,

Well I guess it's unfortunate for those who keep booting their phone from scratch all the time. Easy fix is stop doing it just like on PC's.

Well, Android is so unstable you have no choice. The most unstable error filled cell phone I have ever had is my current Samsung galaxy SGSII. At random it decides to use up all the remaining power on the battery causing extreme heat and total battery drain. Woho, talk about crap OS. And what's with the different sized non aligned icons on android ? Oh well ... I for one will be looking at the N9 Megoo.

mmyon said,
I'm sick of these droid powered devices. It seems they are positioned from ultra low end to the highest segment I can imagine. But there is no way you can optimize an OS like that. eg. one of my friends has a high end HTC phone and it is dog slow to start up.

How the hell can something like this be so succesful? How?

Because the vast majority of Android phones shipped are carrier branded phones or from vendor such as ZTE and Huawei - they aren't premium end phones.

As for the premium end phones, why buy an Android one such as the HTC Sensation which only has 1GB of built in storage the max size memory you can get is 16GB. It amazes me how people are suckered into devices that are worse value for money when compared to the iPhone or Windows Phone 7 devices out there.

mmyon said,
But there is no way you can optimize an OS like that. eg. one of my friends has a high end HTC phone and it is dog slow to start up.

Are people still switching off their smartphones at night and rebooting them when they get up? I guess some people still don't understand the purpose of smartphones and still use them as 1st generation nokiaphones, crazy

Kosh Naranek said,

Well, Android is so unstable you have no choice. The most unstable error filled cell phone I have ever had is my current Samsung galaxy SGSII. At random it decides to use up all the remaining power on the battery causing extreme heat and total battery drain.

Sounds more like user error to me to be honest. I've yet to have a single crash or even feel warm. Admittedly there is a bug in 2.3.4 which effects battery drain on most devices but updates will come around eventually and help with that.

Life is all about taking chances and that's exactly what Nokia have done. Instead of becoming another faceless Android OEM pumping out handset after handset with varing performance, I use that term very loosely, they chose to go with WP7, a platform that actually shows some innovation.

neo158 said,
Life is all about taking chances and that's exactly what Nokia have done. Instead of becoming another faceless Android OEM pumping out handset after handset with varing performance, I use that term very loosely, they chose to go with WP7, a platform that actually shows some innovation.

Which gives them nothing different over other WP7 makers devices are all the same no differentiation besides the exterior design which plays minimal factor in all things and they only have to compete with other WP7 all priced the same with no different or compelling features besides their brand to rely on which isn't enough.

They could have gone the route they did with symbian with android and varying performance isn't a problem look at the galaxy line of devices from low end to top end and they each fit their niche well even HTC and sony do it well with different levels of devices at different price points.

But no they chose to become the black and white cow in the heard of black and white cows.

Digitalx said,

Which gives them nothing different over other WP7 makers devices are all the same no differentiation besides the exterior design which plays minimal factor in all things and they only have to compete with other WP7 all priced the same with no different or compelling features besides their brand to rely on which isn't enough.

They could have gone the route they did with symbian with android and varying performance isn't a problem look at the galaxy line of devices from low end to top end and they each fit their niche well even HTC and sony do it well with different levels of devices at different price points.

But no they chose to become the black and white cow in the heard of black and white cows.

That's the point, Microsoft laid down guidelines to give a consistant experience across all WP7 devices not only that but newer devices can have dual core processors, not that it's needed, as part of the recommended specifications.

All I will say about the Samsung Galaxy line is this, how many of those devices will still perform at the same speed they did on day one once the user has customised it how they want?

I disagree that they will do nothing to make their handsets stand out, Nokia have the best optics for cameraphones, carrier billing and Ovi Maps (this will be integrated into Bing Maps). The simple answer is we'll have to wait and see what Nokia bring to the WP7 table when they release their devices.

neo158 said,
Life is all about taking chances and that's exactly what Nokia have done. Instead of becoming another faceless Android OEM pumping out handset after handset with varing performance, I use that term very loosely, they chose to go with WP7, a platform that actually shows some innovation.

And what is a faceless Android OEM again? I keep hearing that from MS fans here.

Last time i checked Android phones are as different from each other as WP7 are.

Oh true Nokia can change WP7. But Android OEM can and do it too.

Business is not about beeing a fanboy.

neo158 said,

That's the point, Microsoft laid down guidelines to give a consistant experience across all WP7 devices.

Then why not just have WP7 devices solely made by HTC, wouldn't make any difference. Consistence and lack of differentiation in a competitive market is two different things. Not everyone wants to drive a Honda just because it drives "consistently".

of course it won't be. it only appeals to those who WP7 already appeals to and they already have devices, so it's not going to commercially succeed no.

Digitalx said,
of course it won't be. it only appeals to those who WP7 already appeals to and they already have devices, so it's not going to commercially succeed no.

Sweeping generalisations....
"No, It's not going to suceed"
I'm sure you've made a better analysis of this situation than Nokia, Microsoft and a heap of other people. Your almost saying Andriod or iOS won't grow in market share because they already appeal to a certain preportion of the market, and they already have devices.
There are numerous issues and reasons as to why these devices aren't selling - and a big one of them is lack of hardware, because many people choose their phones based on the hardware (and let me tell you, currently, WP7 phones are sitting between a sea of Andriod on the shelves). Many people don't even know what WP7 is, or they think it is like Windows Mobile (6 & earlier).

xnederlandx said,

Sweeping generalisations....
"No, It's not going to suceed"
I'm sure you've made a better analysis of this situation than Nokia, Microsoft and a heap of other people. Your almost saying Andriod or iOS won't grow in market share because they already appeal to a certain preportion of the market, and they already have devices.
There are numerous issues and reasons as to why these devices aren't selling - and a big one of them is lack of hardware, because many people choose their phones based on the hardware (and let me tell you, currently, WP7 phones are sitting between a sea of Andriod on the shelves). Many people don't even know what WP7 is, or they think it is like Windows Mobile (6 & earlier).

No it's because it does nothing different and looks different that's it. most the devices have old hardware and look the same as android peers. There's nothing compelling to grab customers and go hey buy this over an android phone. It only appeals to those who're right up there with microsoft devices and swear their life savings by them. Nokia becoming just another phone maker which has nothing compelling compared to others in the line says it won't succeed.

The problem is you can't find common ground between apples iphone strategy and androids open strategy and that's what microsofts trying to do and it's a complete cluster f*** with only those who actually want and know wp7 buying it. This is why it won't change a damn thing for Microsoft or Nokia as much as those who dream it will.

Digitalx said,
of course it won't be. it only appeals to those who WP7 already appeals to and they already have devices, so it's not going to commercially succeed no.

thats like saying people that didnt buy the iphone 1 wouldnt buy any other iphone.. buy how do they have growth?? nice brain

Lachlan said,

thats like saying people that didnt buy the iphone 1 wouldnt buy any other iphone.. buy how do they have growth?? nice brain

Well we'll see in 3-4 years time in that case if WP7 has gone anywhere or still wheel spinning in the mud stuck in the past playing catch up and Nokia's a small time OEM if not gone bust.

Nokia seems to be popular outside of the US. They're a mixed bag here, no really good high end smartphones. Their dumb phones are pretty popular in the rest of the world. I think WP7 is a mistake for them.

Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu is doing what he can to raise awareness for his company and certainly articles like this validate his efforts.

Nokia's problem is that they until now, have done fairly unique phones compared to the competition, and lacked an operating system that had any compatibility. Now they've opted for Windows Phone 7, with it's strict requirements, they're at risk of becoming "just another hardware manufacturer" and fading into the background and forgotten.

Ideally, they'll use the exclusive licence they have with MS to modify Windows Phone to their style, but it would have perhaps been easier if they'd just gone with Android for flexibility.

It was always going to risky but who knows what the future holds. It's not like WP7 Mango is rubbish so that's one hurdle jumped. They just have to sell lots of phones. If Android can be successful there is no reason why WP7 can't. Android is the smartphone shops push because most people can't afford the iPhone or maybe don't want it. Give consumers nice hardware and software at varied prices, it's hard to lose. I think MS will really push hard now because second wave hardware and software has got them up to speed. Not like Android blew everyone away 1st year.

oceanmotion said,
It was always going to risky but who knows what the future holds. It's not like WP7 Mango is rubbish so that's one hurdle jumped. They just have to sell lots of phones. If Android can be successful there is no reason why WP7 can't. Android is the smartphone shops push because most people can't afford the iPhone or maybe don't want it. Give consumers nice hardware and software at varied prices, it's hard to lose. I think MS will really push hard now because second wave hardware and software has got them up to speed. Not like Android blew everyone away 1st year.

Wow, a lot of clueless people here. The SeaRay looks exactly like a bunch of WP7 handsets already released. I don't see any things that differentiate it from the competitors' offerings other than the camera. Nokia stock has declined almost 33% since the announcement that Nokia will go WP7. Get a clue people

oceanmotion said,
It's not like WP7 Mango is rubbish so that's one hurdle jumped. .

The problem here is not WP7 but Nokia itself.

A lot of MS fans here think that WP7 will stop Nokia decline. WP7 the savior of Nokia. Would be a great story for sure. But Nokia will need to stop the decline itself by beeing a leader again. WP7 will not magically stop it.

IMO doing like HTC and making WP7 and Android phones would have been a better strategy.

But in the end as smartphones become more and more popular nokia decline will continue if they don't "re-invent" themselves. Samsung last Android phone gets really really good review. It's not 1990.