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Five Reasons why Windows 8 will be dead on arrival

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Summary: Microsoft?s Windows 8 and Vista will have several things in common: Both are unwanted operating system updates that will flop in the marketplace.

metro.png

Windows 8's Metro: The face of a DOA operating system.

Some of my die-hard Windows friends are very excited by Windows 8 arrival later this year. Others fear that Windows 8 will be a repeat of Microsoft?s Vista disaster. Me? I know Windows 8 will be a Vista-sized fiasco.

Before jumping into why I think far more PC users will still be running Windows 7 in 2016 than Windows 8, let me explain that while I prefer Linux as my desktop operating system, I don?t see Windows 8 charge into a brick wall as being a pro-Linux or anti-Microsoft issue.

In fact, as desktop operating systems go, I rather like Windows 7. Yes, really. Besides, it?s not like Windows 8?s forthcoming failure will help desktop Linux. Looking back, when Vista flopped, in the long run it actually hurt desktop Linux. That?s because Vista?s failure, combined with the threat of netbooks, caused Microsoft to revive Windows XP. If Windows 8 goes down the same path, I?m sure Microsoft will extend Windows 7?s lifespan.

So, why is Windows 8 destined to be a non-starter? Simple:

1. No one needs Windows 8 on the desktop.

Quick: Name one thing about Windows 8 that they don?t already get from Windows 7-or a great desktop Linux like Mint or Mac OS X Lion? I can?t.

Indeed, I can?t think of a single significant new improvement in Windows 8. The ability to refresh the operating system? Faster booting? A Windows Store? Live boot from a USB drive? Come on! All these features have been around in other operating systems for years, and while sure, they?re nice, put them all together and at most they?re worth a Windows 7 Service Patch?not a whole new operating system.

2. Metro: An ugly, useless interface.

As everyone knows, Windows 8 has a totally new default interface: Metro. When I look at Metro, however, I see gaudy colors, boxy designs, applications that can either run as a small tile or as full screen with no way to resize or move windows. Where have I seen this before? Wait, I know! Windows 1.0!

More to the point, almost everyone knows the current Windows interface. It?s changed over the years, but you could take someone who last touched Windows back in the Windows 95 days and drop that in front of them of Windows 7 and they?d be able to get work done. Metro? It?s entirely different. Heck, Microsoft has even dropped the Start button in the latest version!

In short, even if Metro was the best thing since sliced bread, which it isn?t, it will still require users to learn a new way of doing the same old thing. That?s a failure of an idea right here. Sure, you can use the ?Classic? desktop experience instead, but hey, I have an idea! Why not just use the Windows XP or 7 ?classic? interface instead?

3. Where are the Windows 8 Applications?

The Windows 8 Consumer Preview (read Windows 8 public beta) will be here real soon now and we still don?t know next to anything about Windows 8?s applications. As Mary Jo Foley recently pointed out we still don?t even know whether Office 15 will be Metro, non-Metro, or partially Metro.

Seriously? Windows 8 will probably be out by this fall and we still don?t know jack about its apps? Not even Microsoft?s own flagship office application? Come on! How can you take this operating system seriously?

4. Vexed Windows developers.

If you?re unhappy about the state of Metro applications, think about the poor Windows programmers. You?ve spent years learning .NET, Windows Communication Foundation (WCF) and Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF), and now they have to learn WinRT and Jupiter/XAML.

Even developers who like WinRT give it ?complements? like ?It?s a great time to get involved with WinRT, as the platform is still in its infancy, and will need a lot of developer support to build even more robust tools.? Really? That comment was made in January 2012, and the development tools are still in diapers!?

Last, but not least, Windows developers will need rewrite their Metro apps for the more traditional Windows-style desktop. Oh, and they?ll also need to build them for both x86 and ARM platforms. That?s a heck of a lot of work to do without a lot of time to do it in. Put it all together and I see little chance about Windows 8 having many mature, ready-to-run applications come launch day.

Heck, Brandon Watson, head of developer experiences for Windows Phone, just left Microsoft for Amazon?s Android-based Kindle team Think he might know something?

This reminds me, what do you call an operating system without developers or applications? The answer? Dead.

5. Too little, too late for the smartphone/tablet market

Metro?s real point, of course, isn?t for desktop users. It?s Microsoft?s last gasp attempt to be a player on tomorrow?s computers: smartphones and tablets. If Microsoft was bringing something truly revolutionary to mobile devices, or they were still able to strong-arm original equipment manufacturers (OEM)s into loading Windows on their devices, I think they?d have a shot at the mobile space. Neither is true.

Smartphones are a dog fight between Android and iOS. Tablets did belong to Apple, but now Samsung, Amazon and Barnes & Noble are giving the iPad a fight for the tablet marketplace. Android and iOS are mature, have enormous developer communities and are wildly popular. Heck, if you count smartphones, thanks to the iPhone Apple is now the number one ?PC? vendor in the world.

On top of that, the U.S. phone carriers have no interest in a Windows Phone. Too old, too slow Microsoft is arriving much too late to the 2010s style of mobile computing to be a significant player and that means Windows 8 Metro won?t find an audience either. I see no room left for a major third-party platform. A minor player, like KDE or Ubuntu? Sure. A Microsoft? No.

Add it up. The majority of Windows users have only just switched over from XP to Windows 7 in, at best, November 2011. Microsoft is now asking for its users to switch to a platform with no significant improvements, a radically different interface, and which is very likely to have few applications. The result? Window 8 will be dead on arrival.

Source

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Pfffttt

That is all I have to say about this article

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I guess 2012 will be the year of Linux on the consumer desktop.

Just like the last 14 years.

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Windows 8 is already DOA in my mind.

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Make or break for Microsoft with Windows 8! If this doesn't give them a foothold in mobile computing of todays standards then they may as well give up the chase.

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This time around Linux will prevail and conquer the Desktop spaces! Oh wait...

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Did you all not read the article. He clearly states a Windows 8 failure, could actually hurt linux.

Yes, really. Besides, it?s not like Windows 8?s forthcoming failure will help desktop Linux. Looking back, when Vista flopped, in the long run it actually hurt desktop Linux. That?s because Vista?s failure, combined with the threat of netbooks, caused Microsoft to revive Windows XP. If Windows 8 goes down the same path, I?m sure Microsoft will extend Windows 7?s lifespan.

He has very valid points, I agree with them. Metro ISN'T here to stay, it's a bold move for something that in 10 years will be non-existant. I don't see Windows 8 even coming close to the Windows 7 success. I see Windows 8 being like Windows Vista, not very popular, easily out shined, and nothing more than a gimmick

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Metro is here to stay. Period.

You guys can argue all you want.

But its here to stay

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He has very valid points, I agree with them. Metro ISN'T here to stay, it's a bold move for something that in 10 years will be non-existant. I don't see Windows 8 even coming close to the Windows 7 success. I see Windows 8 being like Windows Vista, not very popular, easily out shined, and nothing more than a gimmick

Would love to see you eat the dirt if it's nothing like you claim it'll be. :)

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I was kind of indifferent on Windows 8 ... Now I hope it's successful just shut up freaken morons who don't have clue what windows 8 really is.

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To be fair I shouldn't really bother refuting this as it seems like a troll article, but a few little points.

1) Service Packs are for servicing, not adding new features. All those things he mention are new features, and features cost time and money! There's also little things like, oh, say, built in Anti-Virus, super quick booting, rewritten networking stacks, a reduction in base memory usage by about 100MB +, etc. There's plenty of desktop improvements going on here. That's like saying, what's the point in 7 over Vista? All it did was a nice coat of paint and a little memory reduction :p

3) Being developed, duh. Also, every single Windows 7 application out there.

4) WinRT & XAML is extremely close to Silverlight, which is turn shares a lot with WPF. C++ & DirectX are still C++ & DirectX, and WinRT basically encompasses large parts of .NET And all those skills they have? They can use them to still develop traditional desktop applications. This is one of the MOST annoying assumptions about Windows 8 - that every application for now on has to be made in Metro. They don't @___@

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I feel it will be a resounding success. Everyone I've showed the DP to has been quite pleased with it and it's not even feature-complete. :/

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oh look another stupid metro hate article :shifty:

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I was kind of indifferent on Windows 8 ... Now I hope it's successful just shut up freaken morons who don't have clue what windows 8 really is.

^ Don't need to know anything -- we don't need Windows 8.

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To be fair I shouldn't really bother refuting this as it seems like a troll article, but a few little points.

1) Service Packs are for servicing, not adding new features. All those thins he mention are new features, features cost time and money eh :p

3) Being developed, duh. Also, every single Windows 7 application out there :p

4) WinRT & XAML is extremely close to Silverlight, which is turn shares a lot with WPF. C++ & DirectX are still C++ & DirectX, and WinRT basically encompasses large parts of .NET. :p. And all those skills they have? They can use them to still develop traditional desktop applications.

This is one of the MOST annoying assumptions about Windows 8 - that every application for now on has to be made in Metro. They don't @___@

What would you expect from someone running OSS blog? Candy? :rolleyes:

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Metro is here to stay. Period.

You guys can argue all you want.

But its here to stay

+1

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^ Don't need to know anything -- we don't need Windows 8.

YOU don't need Windows 8, don't force your need onto others :)

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Metro is here to stay. Period. You guys can argue all you want. But its here to stay

I disagree - I say Metro UI is the new Ultimate Extras.

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I disagree - I say Metro UI is the new Ultimate Extras.

Agreed. If enough people show their disapproval for Metro, it will evaporate in the next Windows installment.

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I disagree - I say Metro UI is the new Ultimate Extras.

Ultimate Extras was a half baked idea they never finished nor concentrated on, designed for only for 1 of editions of Windows.

Metro is a fundamental concept in this upgrade that's part of every single edition of Windows, and already has had significant development resources put into, and something that Microsoft are actively pushing and encouraging developers to look at, and eventually they'll be doing the same for end users. It's quite unlike Ultimate Extras.

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Oh look, this a new record for Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols. This is the worst he has written.

A lot of points he make doesn't even make sense. Saying there is no improvement...other OS have had it for years...Interface is not for PC...we know nothing about Office's interface.

I find no relation, and he cant make sense even if his life depended on it.

He has been bashing Microsoft for years, and exaggerating and making lies about them. He doesn't get them, and think he's cool for hating on Microsoft.

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windows 8 is just pure poop - sod supporting it in a working buiness enviorment.

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I don't agree with alot of crap stated in the OP. More then likely I will use Win8 when it's released. But hopefully the Metro UI will be optional.

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