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(I have quoted first half of the article below).
Quote
Will Pundits Kill Windows Phone 8?
Windows Phone 8 is only doomed if we say it is. I've been losing patience with the growing meme among pundits that Microsoft's new Windows Phone 8 is a brave try, but not worth recommending because it doesn't have the most popular apps from other platforms.
Yes, that's true, right now. But it may not be true in six months. And those same pundits actually have a lot of control over whether or not it will be true.
App momentum is all about perception and zeitgeist. It's either a positive or negative feedback loop. Microsoft can prime the pump a bit, and it's doing so. If carriers want to absolutely shove a platform at users (as Verizon did with Android), that will also aid adoption. But in general, as long as the platform's SDK is acceptable (which it is), developers will write for a platform if they feel the users are there, and users will come if the developers are there.
That gives pundits an unusual amount of power, because they have some control over perception. If developers and users see everywhere that Windows Phone is up and coming, they'll give it a try - and it'll be up and coming. But if they hear that it's a damp squib because of a lack of apps, they'll stay away, maintaining the lack of apps.
Not Everyone Uses iOS
I've been seeing the "doomed" meme come up recently in the work of influential writers I respect, like David Pogue of the New York Times (unlinkable because of the NYT paywall), Chris Ziegler of the Verge and Todd Hasleton of TechnoBuffalo. They try to couch their words in conditional terms, but their columns all read to me like early obituaries. The underlying tone is that "Windows Phone doesn't have every iPhone game I love right now, so it's worthless."
Against that I'll hold Noah Kravitz's column, "The Windows Phone Problem," which goes more negative on desktop Windows 8 than I prefer, but at least acknowledges that Windows Phone is a solid offering with a fighting chance.
One thing I've noticed is that a lot of these guys tend to be iOS guys, at least to tell from their repeated references to some game called Letterpress. I have a whole half-column written in my head about how sick I am of hearing about this Letterpress thing, which seems to have become some sort of Twitter shibboleth for being a hipster iOS user. But not everyone uses iOS, and not everyone is surrounded by people who use iOS. iOS is vastly overrepresented among geeks and pundits, I suspect. Most Americans aren't suffering from an iOS network effect. Windows Phone doesn't have Letterpress, but it has enough apps to amuse, and if it gets more momentum, other apps will come.
In a nation where only half of the people have smartphones, there's still room for Windows Phone. But it will only survive if people believe there's room for Windows Phone, and that's where the pundits are key.
Windows Phone 8 is only doomed if we say it is. I've been losing patience with the growing meme among pundits that Microsoft's new Windows Phone 8 is a brave try, but not worth recommending because it doesn't have the most popular apps from other platforms.
Yes, that's true, right now. But it may not be true in six months. And those same pundits actually have a lot of control over whether or not it will be true.
App momentum is all about perception and zeitgeist. It's either a positive or negative feedback loop. Microsoft can prime the pump a bit, and it's doing so. If carriers want to absolutely shove a platform at users (as Verizon did with Android), that will also aid adoption. But in general, as long as the platform's SDK is acceptable (which it is), developers will write for a platform if they feel the users are there, and users will come if the developers are there.
That gives pundits an unusual amount of power, because they have some control over perception. If developers and users see everywhere that Windows Phone is up and coming, they'll give it a try - and it'll be up and coming. But if they hear that it's a damp squib because of a lack of apps, they'll stay away, maintaining the lack of apps.
Not Everyone Uses iOS
I've been seeing the "doomed" meme come up recently in the work of influential writers I respect, like David Pogue of the New York Times (unlinkable because of the NYT paywall), Chris Ziegler of the Verge and Todd Hasleton of TechnoBuffalo. They try to couch their words in conditional terms, but their columns all read to me like early obituaries. The underlying tone is that "Windows Phone doesn't have every iPhone game I love right now, so it's worthless."
Against that I'll hold Noah Kravitz's column, "The Windows Phone Problem," which goes more negative on desktop Windows 8 than I prefer, but at least acknowledges that Windows Phone is a solid offering with a fighting chance.
One thing I've noticed is that a lot of these guys tend to be iOS guys, at least to tell from their repeated references to some game called Letterpress. I have a whole half-column written in my head about how sick I am of hearing about this Letterpress thing, which seems to have become some sort of Twitter shibboleth for being a hipster iOS user. But not everyone uses iOS, and not everyone is surrounded by people who use iOS. iOS is vastly overrepresented among geeks and pundits, I suspect. Most Americans aren't suffering from an iOS network effect. Windows Phone doesn't have Letterpress, but it has enough apps to amuse, and if it gets more momentum, other apps will come.
In a nation where only half of the people have smartphones, there's still room for Windows Phone. But it will only survive if people believe there's room for Windows Phone, and that's where the pundits are key.
Some good and valid points IMO.
