We recently heard that Samsung Galaxy S26 might settle for less due to rising component costs, specifically DRAM. However, the issue is affecting the smartphone industry on a larger scale. A new report from Counterpoint Research predicts that global smartphone shipments could decline in 2026.
According to the market intelligence firm"s revised forecast report, global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to shrink by 2.1% due to rising memory costs, with Chinese device makers taking the biggest hit.
Counterpoint said that "this 2.1% decline translates into a 2.6%pt downward revision in our 2026 forecast, with key Chinese OEMs like HONOR, OPPO and vivo seeing the biggest deltas from previous estimates."
While the impact will be felt broadly, the low-end segment (below $200) will be impacted the most. Rising DRAM prices have already pushed the Bill of Materials (BoM) costs for the low-, mid-, and high-end segments by about 25%, 15%, and 10%, respectively. The firm expects the costs to rise further by around 10%-15% through the second quarter of 2026.
Device makers will try to avoid the situation by adjusting their prices and restructuring their portfolios. As a result, the average selling prices (ASPs) in 2026 are expected to increase by 6.9%, up from the 3.9% prediction from September.
Those who don"t "have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins" could resort to different strategies, such as downgrading specifications, reusing old components, and pushing users towards pricier premium smartphones.
The firm"s senior analyst, Yang Wang, said that steep price hikes are not sustainable in the low price band, adding that the OEMs will have to trim parts of their portfolios if "cost pass-through isn’t possible."
Counterpoint"s stance echoes a recent report from TrendForce, which said that smartphones released in 2026 would feature less RAM due to rising memory costs, leading to a rise in 4GB RAM models and a significant blow to pricier 16GB RAM models.
Apple and Samsung, estimated to own 19% of the global market share each in 2026, are expected to take a fall of around 2% in their shipments. However, they are strong enough to withstand the storm over the next few quarters, according to the firm.
iPhone is already among the priciest smartphones out on the market; it crossed the $900 global average selling price earlier this year. It remains to be seen whether the stickiness of Apple"s ecosystem will help the company navigate the rough waters next year.
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