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 Telling people to just get another job to justify a price difference is silly.

 

No one should try to justify the X1 that way, it doesn't need it. There are plenty of features and games that you can point to as justifying its price. Since the two consoles are $100 apart, its not impossible to lay out what that $100 can get you. Its still up to everyone to decide if those features matter to them and if they prefer one game lineup over the other.

 

Its much harder to push a console with a $200-300 difference like it was at the start of this gen than it is at a $100 difference. Sony had to lean heavily on the Bluray feature for a while until the game library got strong enough and the price dropped. MS has more they can point to, so we will see if they can make it work.

 Telling people to just get another job to justify a price difference is silly.

 

No one should try to justify the X1 that way, it doesn't need it. There are plenty of features and games that you can point to as justifying its price. Since the two consoles are $100 apart, its not impossible to lay out what that $100 can get you. Its still up to everyone to decide if those features matter to them and if they prefer one game lineup over the other.

 

Its much harder to push a console with a $200-300 difference like it was at the start of this gen than it is at a $100 difference. Sony had to lean heavily on the Bluray feature for a while until the game library got strong enough and the price dropped. MS has more they can point to, so we will see if they can make it work.

 

Except MS can make a system $100 less that does not include Kinect.  The PS3 cannot function (play PS3 games) without a Blu-Ray drive.  Therefore, the price difference was more justified this current gen than the next gen.  I have absolutely no need for Kinect.  I want to unplug it and put it away, but I cannot even do that.  

 

It is much harder this generation because there are a lot of people that feel like I do, Kinect is not 100% necessary and will not be used by us.  Blu-Ray, on the other hand, was 100% necessary to play PS3 titles.

One thing to remember is the when.  That was back in 2006 when people were still used to $299 being the norm for a new console.  Back then, $599 was quite a bit for a glorified, at the time, Blu-ray player.    Flash ahead to 2013 and prices have went up, the market has changed, and the systems can do more than just play disc games.  Having a $400-$500 system now, that you know will be on the market for another 10 years or at least 7 before the next system comes, makes it easier to swallow.

I actually can't wait.. Long day of work... Get my kids settled... And as I walk towards my Man Cave, just say 'Xbox On'... It waiting to iD me (unless voice recognition only is an option as well)... Xbox go to ESPN...Xbox snap IE (load up Neowin).. Debate and catch up on Sports Center at the same time...looks like my crew is finally on... Xbox go to Titanfall...

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Except MS can make a system $100 less that does not include Kinect.  The PS3 cannot function (play PS3 games) without a Blu-Ray drive.  Therefore, the price difference was more justified this current gen than the next gen.  I have absolutely no need for Kinect.  I want to unplug it and put it away, but I cannot even do that.  

 

It is much harder this generation because there are a lot of people that feel like I do, Kinect is not 100% necessary and will not be used by us.  Blu-Ray, on the other hand, was 100% necessary to play PS3 titles.

 

I guess that's just the gamble MS is making. I see your point if you want nothing to do with Kinect, but if they unbundled it, then they might as well give it up completely.  The Kinect experience cannot and will not improve in serious ways unless they have serious developer support. If you hate Kinect, then I'm sure you would hope that they just drop it, but then what about users that are interested in trying it and wanting it to get better?

 

I don't think there is an easy answer here.

 

If MS unbundled Kinect, then dev support tanks and those that disliked Kinect can point to a lack of content and experiences that are sub par based on the hardware. So some people would be happy in this scenario. In fact this is the path Sony chose with its Move system.

 

If MS stick with the setup as is, they drive developer support and get content that shows real improvements and experiences that make sense. Unfortunately, they upset those that don't want Kinect.

 

 

My point about Bluray for the PS3 was that Sony had to lean on it as a driving feature (for movie playback) for a while until gaming content caught up. Sony pushed Bluray to prop up their media sales, not for gamers. Your right that Sony couldn't unbundle it, but that doesn't change how things went for the ps3 early on.

 

MS has to prove to the majority of consumers that the entire package is worth 499 vs 399. They want Kinect seen as merely another feature of the console, not an add-on. Add-ons have a poor track record and even the term has negative connotations. Going back to the Bluray thing, MS would prefer Kinect be considered an integrated part like that.

$500....$500...$500...  That fine line between, I'll take it & That's too much $$$....

 

GAMES are a given on both consoles...

 

MS says there is more to come on this $500 investment... And, that more to come is gonna happen sooner rather than later...

I have really paid close attention to what $500 will give me...

 

300K dedicated servers (this is just for launch and will expand depending on how things are going)

 

Tv, Tv, Tv... Sports, Sports, Sports...Netflix, Netflix,Netflix, Amazon, Amazon,Amazon (I'm a HUGE NFL JUNKIE, College Sports Junkie, and can tolerate the NBA)... I love Netflix, and am building up a nice Amazon Digital Library of Movies... All with VERY INTEGRATED KINECT EXPERIENCE....

 

Smart Glass Upgrade... yep yep yep...

 

Xbox Live now living on the Cloud... YES PLEASE....

 

Rep System (or shall we say, Troll filtering system)...

 

Kinect v2... Those tech demos and grabbing thin air, and snapping w/voice , etc... I more than welcome it.. Just saying Xbox on, while I walk towards my man cave and the XB1 is waiting for me ready to go...

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Sony should have: Bundled the Camera, and Vita, and the PS4 together and slapped $500 on it...

I think they cut up their core experience...

 

Sure brag about Gaikai streaming... But how many people have a Vita across the globe???.... SO slap on at least $200 to experience this...

Heave Move integration is actually awesome... but ya took the camera out the box .... Slap on $60 to experience this...

 

So if you want the True Playstation Experience...

 

PS4 = $400

Vita =  $200

Eye =  $60

----------------------------

True Playstation Experience $660 (Which should be bundled together for $500)... I would be sold on this... 

 

And I didn't event include the Move Wands which are compatible... ($30 & $20 respectively)

Except MS can make a system $100 less that does not include Kinect.  The PS3 cannot function (play PS3 games) without a Blu-Ray drive.  Therefore, the price difference was more justified this current gen than the next gen.  I have absolutely no need for Kinect.  I want to unplug it and put it away, but I cannot even do that.  

 

It is much harder this generation because there are a lot of people that feel like I do, Kinect is not 100% necessary and will not be used by us.  Blu-Ray, on the other hand, was 100% necessary to play PS3 titles.

PS3 cannot functon without a Blu-Ray drive because Sony designed it that way

Xbox One cannot function without a Kinect because Microsoft designed it that way.

 

People can whine all they want about Kinect and $100 - its Microsoft's console and they designed it such that Kinect is not separate accessory any more. Blu-Ray was not 100% necessary for PS3 titles. It could've functioned just as well with a DVD drive.

I thought the Xbox One could function without the Kinect? It just needs to be plugged in. As far as I know, you can keep using the controller.

The PS3 cannot function at all without Blu-Ray. So again. Why am I forced to pay $100 more when I will not use Kinect? Fine make it bundled, but why am I forced to have it plugged in?

I thought the Xbox One could function without the Kinect? It just needs to be plugged in. As far as I know, you can keep using the controller.

The PS3 cannot function at all without Blu-Ray. So again. Why am I forced to pay $100 more when I will not use Kinect? Fine make it bundled, but why am I forced to have it plugged in?

 

Developer support......simple.

 

The X1 can function without Kinect since it can be disabled. Kinect will only become more useful for all gamers if there is an incentive for developers to give a darn about it. I know it sounds like such a little thing, but my guess is that MS wanted there to be no doubt for developers that Kinect is now an integrated feature that all X1 will have, so making the effort to use it in some way is worth it. MS really doesn't want to see it ignored and wasted.

 

I think the whole required to be plugged in thing may change before launch, but we will see. If it does change, it may come down to plugging it in once to calibrate. I'm still on the fence about if its such a bad thing or not.

I'm not sure why people dislike the Kinect so much, if it weren't for the kinect I wouldn't even be buying an Xbox One.

 

Forcing the Kinect in every Xbox One bundle has guaranteed to game developers support for it on every Xbox One console.

 

With the $400 Million deal with the NFL, forced bundling of the Kinect and tv features you can see the path Microsoft is heading and what type of customers they are trying to attract.

They want people who are into NFL and other sports, people who want party games, people who want TV.. They want people who aren't general gamers to pick up the console and use it.

 

Sports & Party Games: They are trying to tap into a market which was more interested in the Wii than PS3 or X360. (The Wii sold more units than both).

TV: Netflix is gaining popularity very quickly and other TV /Movie streams, etc. Xbox One wants to capitalize on this. (Be the gateway to online tv/movies)

 

The initial pre-orders and buys will be from 'hardcore' gamers, then gamers in general. Also the higher price point will negatively effect their sales for some time. But in the long run, I see the kinect pushing Xbox One sales.

 

Hopefully for Microsoft the forced bundling of Kinect doesn't force publishers to support PS Eye in the same manner and just ports the motion-controls over which would mean Microsoft took the brunt of the pain while Sony got the same benefit on multi-platform games without breaking a sweat.

I'm not sure why people dislike the Kinect so much, if it weren't for the kinect I wouldn't even be buying an Xbox One.

I know people who still think Ultima 7 is the best game of all time...there'll still be people that want nothing to do with Kinect or related tech twenty years from now.

$500....$500...$500...  That fine line between, I'll take it & That's too much $$$....

 

GAMES are a given on both consoles...

 

MS says there is more to come on this $500 investment... And, that more to come is gonna happen sooner rather than later...

I have really paid close attention to what $500 will give me...

 

300K dedicated servers (this is just for launch and will expand depending on how things are going)

 

Tv, Tv, Tv... Sports, Sports, Sports...Netflix, Netflix,Netflix, Amazon, Amazon,Amazon (I'm a HUGE NFL JUNKIE, College Sports Junkie, and can tolerate the NBA)... I love Netflix, and am building up a nice Amazon Digital Library of Movies... All with VERY INTEGRATED KINECT EXPERIENCE....

 

Smart Glass Upgrade... yep yep yep...

 

Xbox Live now living on the Cloud... YES PLEASE....

 

Rep System (or shall we say, Troll filtering system)...

 

Kinect v2... Those tech demos and grabbing thin air, and snapping w/voice , etc... I more than welcome it.. Just saying Xbox on, while I walk towards my man cave and the XB1 is waiting for me ready to go...

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Sony should have: Bundled the Camera, and Vita, and the PS4 together and slapped $500 on it...

I think they cut up their core experience...

 

Sure brag about Gaikai streaming... But how many people have a Vita across the globe???.... SO slap on at least $200 to experience this...

Heave Move integration is actually awesome... but ya took the camera out the box .... Slap on $60 to experience this...

 

So if you want the True Playstation Experience...

 

PS4 = $400

Vita =  $200

Eye =  $60

----------------------------

True Playstation Experience $660 (Which should be bundled together for $500)... I would be sold on this... 

 

And I didn't event include the Move Wands which are compatible... ($30 & $20 respectively)

 

I do not want the Vita so subtract that $200.  I do not want the Eye, so subtract $60 from that.

 

True Playstation Experience is relative.  What you said should NOT be bundled together.  If you want them?  Fine you can buy those items.

 

The PS4 gives me what I want.  A console with a controller to play games.  No add-ons that I will not use.

 

If Kinect is so great, people will actually use it without being forced to have it.  I do not see why it has to be forced.  If it is an amazing tech, people will use it.

 

Also, do you really think developers will support it like crazy when they also make a PS4 version of the game?  I doubt it.  It might just have basic stuff, but it will not be an amazing experience.

I do not want the Vita so subtract that $200.  I do not want the Eye, so subtract $60 from that.

 

The PS4 gives me what I want.  A console with a controller to play games.  No add-ons that I will not use.

 

I do not want TV-shows related features at all, can MSFT subtract that from XBox One's prices?

I'm totally okay if xbox-one incapable of that features. I don't want to pay whatever contract MSFT had with the TV content providers.

I do not want TV-shows related features at all, can MSFT subtract that from XBox One's prices?

I'm totally okay if xbox-one incapable of that features. I don't want to pay whatever contract MSFT had with the TV content providers.

 

The point is though, going from the existing prices, Kinect is $100.  So if they just let us buy without Kinect, it would be the same as the PS4.  

 

I do not want the TV stuff either.  But without Kinect it will be a $400 vs $400 and you can just pick out the features you like most.

The point is though, going from the existing prices, Kinect is $100.  So if they just let us buy without Kinect, it would be the same as the PS4.  

 

I do not want the TV stuff either.  But without Kinect it will be a $400 vs $400 and you can just pick out the features you like most.

Actually, Microsoft has publicly stated that if the Kinect were not included the Xbone would be significantly less than $399, because the Kinect supposedly costs them almost as much as the console itself.

I do not want the Vita so subtract that $200.  I do not want the Eye, so subtract $60 from that.

 

True Playstation Experience is relative.  What you said should NOT be bundled together.  If you want them?  Fine you can buy those items.

 

The PS4 gives me what I want.  A console with a controller to play games.  No add-ons that I will not use.

 

If Kinect is so great, people will actually use it without being forced to have it.  I do not see why it has to be forced.  If it is an amazing tech, people will use it.

 

Also, do you really think developers will support it like crazy when they also make a PS4 version of the game?  I doubt it.  It might just have basic stuff, but it will not be an amazing experience.

 

 

So what do you actually want out of "Next Gen"?

I'll admit, I've been on a Sony rampage as of late. But that's because I don't see anything outside of a new graphics card upgrade, thats different from the PS3.  I have 2x PS3's already.

I don't want just an Xbox 360-1/2 and a PS3.5

Sure I want games, but I need more than just eye candy... 

 

PS4

Vita

Eye

Move Wands

 

All of the above for $500 has more value, than just a PS4 standalone at $400.  

 

I think the PS+ games you get for free, is totally amazing... But thats about it.

Actually, Microsoft has publicly stated that if the Kinect were not included the Xbone would be significantly less than $399, because the Kinect supposedly costs them almost as much as the console itself.

 

Is this true?  The XB1 would be that much cheaper without Kinect... Like how much cheaper?

So what do you actually want out of "Next Gen"?

I'll admit, I've been on a Sony rampage as of late. But that's because I don't see anything outside of a new graphics card upgrade, thats different from the PS3.  I have 2x PS3's already.

I don't want just an Xbox 360-1/2 and a PS3.5

Sure I want games, but I need more than just eye candy... 

 

PS4

Vita

Eye

Move Wands

 

All of the above for $500 has more value, than just a PS4 standalone at $400.  

 

I think the PS+ games you get for free, is totally amazing... But thats about it.

 

I don't think the Move orbs/wands are a requirement for the new PS Eye.

 

Vita can be used as a second screen, or to continue playing your games while your on the move. (But they run off the console itself)

If you want to include the Vita in a PS4 bundle you might as well say Xbox should bundle a tablet or smartphone also, same as the PS4 they can be used as second screens to be a commander on BF4, or a drone in The Division or read game emails/mission objectives like the phone in gta v and various other games.

 

You could say PS4 should add the Eye so it matches the Xbox One bundle but then the Eye is only $60 separately, so if it were bundled Sony should be able to bring it down to $50 maybe?

Making the console cost $449 with the same package as the XB One. 

 

Is this true?  The XB1 would be that much cheaper without Kinect... Like how much cheaper?

 

The Xbox One dev said it would be a lot cheaper than the PS4's $399 price but didn't give specifics. The XB Dev just said the Kinect costs almost as much as console itself to manufacture and that if they didn't include it the price would be much cheaper. If it costs almost the same mid-point would be $250, so a bit more than that? Maybe $299?

So what do you actually want out of "Next Gen"?

I'll admit, I've been on a Sony rampage as of late. But that's because I don't see anything outside of a new graphics card upgrade, thats different from the PS3.  I have 2x PS3's already.

I don't want just an Xbox 360-1/2 and a PS3.5

Sure I want games, but I need more than just eye candy... 

 

PS4

Vita

Eye

Move Wands

 

All of the above for $500 has more value, than just a PS4 standalone at $400.  

 

I think the PS+ games you get for free, is totally amazing... But thats about it.

 

I have said it many times.  Better hardware which makes things have better graphics, physics, game mechanics.  That is like saying what is the point of getting CoD or Crysis instead of playing the original Doom?

Is this true?  The XB1 would be that much cheaper without Kinect... Like how much cheaper?

This has never been said officially but only on reddit by a verified Xbox One dev. We don't know for sure but if you think logically,

 

1. PS4 is $399 and Sony is not selling it at a loss

2. XboxOne what-we-think-we-know specs say that RAM and GPU are inferior (for lack of a better word) to PS4 so material cost should be cheaper for console. This cost angle is debatable because XboxOne includes additional dedicated hardware for audio processing (which PS4 doesn't but correct me if wrong though) and obviously the TV HDMI in stuff.

3. so if XB1 is $100 more and hardware cost for console is lower then without Kinect it has to be "much" lower than $399. The "much" part is again subjective and can be anywhere from $10-$200.

I have said it many times.  Better hardware which makes things have better graphics, physics, game mechanics.  That is like saying what is the point of getting CoD or Crysis instead of playing the original Doom?

 

CoD & Crysis haven't been good in awhile...

So why bother to upgrade since the first Modern Warfare 

And Crysis... I still think Crysis 1 is the best one... where it was about gameplay and physics.... that gave amazing eye candy as well..

CoD & Crysis haven't been good in awhile...

So why bother to upgrade since the first Modern Warfare 

And Crysis... I still think Crysis 1 is the best one... where it was about gameplay and physics.... that gave amazing eye candy as well..

 

Well why play Crysis 1 instead of Doom 1?  Why play ANY new games instead of just playing your original NES?

 

You guys make it sound like without Kinect, next gen gaming is useless.  

Well why play Crysis 1 instead of Doom 1?  Why play ANY new games instead of just playing your original NES?

 

You guys make it sound like without Kinect, next gen gaming is useless.  

 

This is how I see it...  To enjoy the core game play of the PS4... nothing else is needed... thats good, the way it should be... 

 

But I do not see the value of $400 in there.  But the "True Playstation" experience I value at $500 without question. I don't have PS+, but I definitely see the value in it.

 

Now that I'm hearing that the XB1 would be significantly less than $400 without Kinect, makes me question it even more.

Well why play Crysis 1 instead of Doom 1?  Why play ANY new games instead of just playing your original NES?

 

You guys make it sound like without Kinect, next gen gaming is useless.  

On of the FPS games uses Kinect to hear ambient sound (I think DR3?) and if it detects any sounds you make, your enemies detect your presence. That is next-gen gaming to me.

Is this true?  The XB1 would be that much cheaper without Kinect... Like how much cheaper?

NeoDom explained it. There was an AMA discussion with a verified Xbox One dev that said the Kinect 2 costs almost as much as the console itself. He didn't give specifics, since his credentials were confirmed, that's official enough for me.

 

This is how I see it...  To enjoy the core game play of the PS4... nothing else is needed... thats good, the way it should be... 

 

But I do not see the value of $400 in there.  But the "True Playstation" experience I value at $500 without question. I don't have PS+, but I definitely see the value in it.

 

Now that I'm hearing that the XB1 would be significantly less than $400 without Kinect, makes me question it even more.

The vita and eye would only be considered part of the "true" experience if every game used both in interesting, must-have-in-order-to-play/compete/finish ways. They are not, so they are not really part of the "true" experience.

 

They are supplemental experiences that you can choose to have if you want. (as they should be)

On of the FPS games uses Kinect to hear ambient sound (I think DR3?) and if it detects any sounds you make, your enemies detect your presence. That is next-gen gaming to me.

 

So you can no longer talk on the phone while gaming, or talk to your friend in your house, or have a party?

This topic is now closed to further replies.
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    • Amazon Prime Day 2026: Best Dolby soundbar deals from Sony, Samsung, JBL, Polk, and more by Sayan Sen Yesterday we covered the JBL BAR 800 which is a 5.1.2 Dolby Atmos/Vision soundbar. The unit is on sale for its lowest ever price of just $800 making it a solid offer. However, there are many more options to choose from and in this article, we have made a compilation of the best deals including from Sony, Polk, Yamaha, Denon, Samsung and more. Sony's BAR models are currently at their lowest prices which makes them solid offerings. The company's BRAVIA Theatre Bar lineup is designed to suit different home cinema needs. The Bar 5 is an entry-level 3.1-channel soundbar with a wireless subwoofer, supporting Dolby Atmos®, DTS:X, S-Force PRO Front Surround, and Vertical Surround Engine for immersive audio with clear dialogue. The Bar 6 upgrades to a 3.1.2-channel configuration by adding dedicated up-firing speakers for more convincing overhead Atmos effects while retaining the wireless subwoofer. At the premium end, the Bar 7, Bar 8, and flagship Bar 9 are single-soundbar solutions featuring Sony’s 360 Spatial Sound Mapping technology, which creates phantom speakers for a wider surround field. Bar 7 includes nine speaker units, Bar 8 increases this to eleven, and Bar 9 offers thirteen speaker driver units promising the most expansive soundstage and acoustic performance. All models should integrate seamlessly with compatible BRAVIA TVs and support the BRAVIA Connect app for setup and control. Get them at the links below: Sony BRAVIA Theater Bar 9 Soundbar (HT-A9000): $998.00 (Amazon US) (Was: $1498) Sony BRAVIA Theater Bar 8 Soundbar (HT-A9000): $798.00 (Amazon US) (Was: $998) Sony BRAVIA Theater Bar 7 Soundbar (HT-A7100): $618.00 (Amazon US) (Was: $768) Sony BRAVIA Theater System 6: $548.00 | Sony BRAVIA Theater Bar 6: $448.00 Sony BRAVIA Theater Bar 5 (HT-B500): $278.00 (Amazon US) (Was: $348) Sony HT-S400 2.1 soundbar: $198.00 (Amazon US) (Was: $248) Aside from those, we also have more discounts including from Samsung, Polk Audio, and more: Samsung Q-Series Soundbar HW-QS90H 7.1.2: $797.99 (Amazon US) (Was: $998) Polk Audio Signa S4: $336.00 (Amazon US) (Was: $449) Hisense AX3120Q: $229.00 (Amazon US) (Was: $259) Check out more soundbar deals that you may like at this link. Good to know This Amazon deal is U.S. specific, and not available in other regions unless specified. We only use first-party seller links (at the time of article publishing); ensure that you purchase from a first-party seller link only. Check out Today's Deals on Amazon | or our recent tech deals. Become a Prime member (for Students or SNAP) via Neowin Get Prime Access - Prime for half price (for qualifying Medicaid, EBT, SNAP) Subscribe to Prime Video, Audible Plus, Music Unlimited or Kindle Unlimited via Neowin As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.
    • Stellarium 26.2 by Razvan Serea Stellarium is a free open source planetarium for your computer. It shows a realistic sky in 3D, just like what you see with the naked eye, binoculars or a telescope. It is being used in planetarium projectors. Just set your coordinates and go. Stellarium key features: Realistic simulation of the sky, sunrise and sunset Default catalogue of over 600,000 stars Downloadable additional catalogues for up to 210 million stars Catalog data for all New General Catalogue (NGC) objects Images of almost all Messier objects and the Milky Way Artistic illustrations for all 88 modern constellations More than a dozen different cultures with their constellations Solar and lunar eclipse simulation Photorealistic landscapes (more are available on the website) Scripting support with ECMAScript (a few demo scripts are included) Extendable with plug-ins: 8 plug-ins installed by default, including: artificial satellites plug-in (updated from an on-line TLE database) ocular simulation plug-in (shows how objects look like in a given ocular) Solar System editor plug-in (imports comet and asteroid data from the MPC) telescope control plug-in (Meade LX200 and Celestron NexStar compatible) The major changes of this version: Added new sky culture Added new plugin: Planes Many improvements in plugins Many improvements in Core and GUI Many updates in sky cultures. [full release notes] Download: Stellarium 26.2 (64-bit) | 456.0 MB (Open Source) View: Stellarium Home Page | Other Operating Systems | Screenshot Get alerted to all of our Software updates on Twitter at @NeowinSoftware
    • NASA: This asteroid may not kill us but it probably won't be far off either by Sayan Sen Image by Zelch Csaba via Pexels New observations by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope have eliminated the last remaining impact threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, ruling out the possibility that the near-Earth object could strike the Moon in December 2032. NASA said observations collected by Webb on February 18 and 26, 2026, enabled scientists to refine the asteroid's orbit enough to "rule out a chance of lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032." Instead, asteroid 2024 YR4 is now expected to pass the Moon at a distance of about 13,200 miles (21,200 km). The agency stressed that the update "reflects improved precision in our understanding of where the asteroid is expected to be in 2032 rather than a shift in its orbital path." The announcement closes a remarkable chapter in planetary defence that began in late 2024, when the approximately 60-metre-wide asteroid briefly became the most closely watched near-Earth object in the world. Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 initially appeared to have a small chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. As astronomers gathered more observations, the impact probability briefly climbed to around 3%—the highest ever recorded for an asteroid of its size—before steadily falling as its orbit became better understood. By early 2025, international observations had ruled out any significant risk to Earth. However, astronomers were left with another possibility: a roughly 4% chance that the asteroid could instead strike the Moon. "The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon on 22 December 2032 is now approximately 4%," the European Space Agency (ESA) had said last year, noting that "there is a 96% chance that the asteroid will not impact the Moon." ESA said such an impact, while unlikely, would have presented an extraordinary scientific opportunity. "It is a very rare event for an asteroid this large to impact the Moon – and it is rarer still that we know about it in advance. The impact would likely be visible from Earth, and so scientists will be very excited by the prospect of observing and analysing it," said Richard Moissl, Head of ESA's Planetary Defence Office. "It would certainly leave a new crater on the surface. However, we wouldn't be able to accurately predict in advance how much material would be thrown into space, or whether any would reach Earth," he added. The asteroid also exposed an important blind spot in planetary defence. Because 2024 YR4 approached Earth from the direction of the Sun, it remained hidden from ground-based telescopes until after its closest approach. "We looked into how Neomir would have performed in this situation, and the simulations surprised even us," Moissl said. "Neomir would have detected asteroid 2024 YR4 about a month earlier than ground-based telescopes did. This would have given astronomers more time to study the asteroid's trajectory and allowed them to much sooner rule out any chance of Earth impact in 2032." He added, "As an infrared telescope, like Webb, Neomir would have also immediately given us a much better estimate for the asteroid's size, which is very important for assessing the significance of the hazard." The latest NASA observations underscore the value of space-based infrared telescopes in tracking faint asteroids. According to NASA, Webb made "among the faintest ever observations of an asteroid," extending the object's observational record by nearly eight months at a time when it had become too faint for other telescopes. That additional data allowed scientists to eliminate the remaining uncertainty surrounding its 2032 flyby. Although asteroid 2024 YR4 is now confirmed to pose no threat to either Earth or the Moon, scientists say its discovery remains one of the most significant real-world tests of the international planetary defence system, demonstrating how continued observations can rapidly transform an object once considered hazardous into one whose future path is known with high confidence. Source: NASA, ESA This article was generated with some help from AI and reviewed by an editor. Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, this material is used for the purpose of news reporting. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing.
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