[official] HD DVD Confirmed News

[ahhell]

but when HD media has the market has 60% over dvd, HDDVD will be long time gone. its highly unlikely that fox or disney will move due to their decision to go blu based on the enhanced copy protections it offers.

In English please?

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

The notion on anything being too late is absolutely silly. When a new technology is at 1.6% of market share over DVD which is intended to replace, and that for the most part separates the users to game console owners and some standalones, it is purely illogical to say that anything is over. We (consumers) haven't even started yet.

When you get to 50-60% of the market then you can say that having somewhat more content becomes relevant but even then it becomes obvious that the competing format would again not be abandoned.

It's wishful thinking by Blu-Ray fans that it's over. This is FAR from over.

Again, even as a talking point, it is enough that HD DVD gets Disney or Fox to go neutral by Q3 2008 and the market share for catalog goes back to pretty equal numbers. Sure, this is something that most Blu-Ray fans won't come to accept and will say it's impossible, but that's purely illogical thinking. Both Disney and Fox are businesses and if HD DVD group gives them incentives, just like BDA did, they will publish in it. There's no reason not too.

The problem is in this type of war, whoever gets pole position early is setting themselves up for winning. By that I mean pole position in sales, pole position in media coverage (advertisements), pole position in studio support, ect.

Blu Ray currently fills those categories, and that is why their sales are superior. Unfortunately, or fortunately, whatever way you see it, the attributes above give you more success than cheaper players/better extras (hd-dvd superior profile support) in the early stages of the battle.

The market share who are currently still on DVD are dwindling down by the day to those who buy whatever the sales person/TV advert/Shop says to buy - Casual buyers who won't know what HD-DVD or Blu Ray is. People who will go into a shop and see a movie in a blue case and ask what plays that, im new to HD content. None of these people will ever know about pay offs, incomplete profiling, ect - Their money/purchase is effected by the attributes I talked about above (what the shop promotes, what adverts they see, what their friends have, what their favourite/recent/new movies are on ect).

While it is wishful thinking to an extent to say anything is over till the fat lady sings, it's a bit unfair Boz to call people out on believing it's over due to the circumstances we face.

You follow the extreme view that it's definitely not over, others follow the extreme view that it is over. Both sides have relevant points to make, and for whatever reason both sides like to call the other side out and try to get them to believe what they believe.

In reality we, the small minority on Neowin have no influence on the way things go. We can discuss it/speculate but time will bring us the real answer.

[Boz]

How do you determine who is "scared" and who are just buying into the statistics?

You must agree the sales figures show Blu Ray is winning.

Absolutely not. Blu-Ray is winning in nothing but payoffs. Their standalone sales have increased somewhat Q4 2007 due to again the start of free player giveaways with the TV sets and NPD has shown why numbers look misleading. There are much more factors that influence numbers. Software sales were again fueled by massive BOGOs from the start of 2007 on top of everything that HD DVD did and of course having those 3 million PS3s did help but not enough.

What I'm trying to point out that any numbers advantage as I've stated a gazillion times is completely irrelevant as it is clearly not being PURCHASED by the consumers, but given away. There's a huge difference. I'm not going into here whether or not people getting these movies and players are benefiting. They are, but it simply doesn't paint the real picture. These promotions will end and when the true mainstream consumer starts buying, they will not be offered these same deals. I'm pretty sure of that.

This is like a football league with team A in 1st position and team B in 2nd with 5 games to go (a game worth 3 points), and team A having a 12 point lead.

Silly analogy. What this war is like is that we just kicked off the game it's getting into the second minute of the game and team Blue scores, but there's still 98% of the time left to be played.

Again, I will remind you that only less then 2% of market actually bought the players and this includes PS3s I believe. There are approx. about 500 titles available with slight difference in numbers between the BD and HD DVD and studio alliances can still shift regardless of how many people think that now if a studio picked Blu-Ray it's all over. As I said, there's absolutely no reason for Disney or Fox not to start publishing on HD DVD if they were given incentives by Toshiba. They are all businesses and work with money, not fanboyism.

Boz you speak about the comeback as if it's destined/certain to happen, just like others speak about the Blu Ray win like its destined/certain to happen - The only difference those in the later category have more proof to back their views - The proof being the sales figures and studio support.

No, I don't know what will happen, but what I have problems with is again this hurry that somehow HD DVD is dead and we should all drop it right now. It's absolutely ridiculous.

HD DVD CAN come back. They have EVERYTHING on their side except a bit weaker software support and even there they will have a massive advantage this year with exclusive blockbusters being in their corner.

Let me remind you:

HD DVD has:

1. $100-$199 for EXCELLENT players from low to high-end (A35 models)

2. Technologically it is possible for them to offer HD and SD DVD version on the same disc with SD being phased out so the mass adoption starts pretty transparent for consumers

3. Again, the format is completed and offers things that even the new 1.1 players don't

4. All discs are guaranteed to play on any player you have or will get

5. 4th Gen HD DVD players with rumoured networking capabilities like Netflix streaming and USB enabled devices are to be out around Q3 2008

Blu-Ray has:

1. Warner which account for about 20% more content for Blu

2. $300 or even more (price not confirmed) Funai player that will be profile 1.1 and is still to be tested with 2.0 discs other players are $400+ and no profile 2.0 players this year

3. PS3 phases out 80gb version and keeps the 40gb version with no PS2 backward compatibilty in order to try to lower the leak of money, yet they continue to lose at least a $100 per PS3. No price drop on PS3 mentioned in contrast to rumoured drop.

4. Some retailer support through financial deals where they are trying to kill off HD DVD but major retailers are still pretty much pushing HD DVD, but major players like Best Buy, Costco, Fry's Electronics, Walmart, Sam's Club and others continue offering sub $150 HD DVD players now with more end caps present for Toshiba.

So, basically the only thing that has changed is BDA and fans screaming it's over, while everyone else is pretty much taking "let's wait and see approach". Or you might've missed many press releases from major retailers that the war is not over?

[Coldgunner]

can you provide proof of payoffs?

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Absolutely not. Blu-Ray is winning in nothing but payoffs. Their standalone sales have increased somewhat Q4 2007 due to again the start of free player giveaways with the TV sets and NPD has shown why numbers look misleading. There are much more factors that influence numbers. Software sales were again fueled by massive BOGOs from the start of 2007 on top of everything that HD DVD did and of course having those 3 million PS3s did help but not enough.

What I'm trying to point out that any numbers advantage as I've stated a gazillion times is completely irrelevant as it is clearly not being PURCHASED by the consumers, but given away. There's a huge difference. I'm not going into here whether or not people getting these movies and players are benefiting. They are, but it simply doesn't paint the real picture. These promotions will end and when the true mainstream consumer starts buying, they will not be offered these same deals. I'm pretty sure of that.

Silly analogy. What this war is like is that we just kicked off the game it's getting into the second minute of the game and team Blue scores, but there's still 98% of the time left to be played.

Again, I will remind you that only less then 2% of market actually bought the players and this includes PS3s I believe. There are approx. about 500 titles available with slight difference in numbers between the BD and HD DVD and studio alliances can still shift regardless of how many people think that now if a studio picked Blu-Ray it's all over. As I said, there's absolutely no reason for Disney or Fox not to start publishing on HD DVD if they were given incentives by Toshiba. They are all businesses and work with money, not fanboyism.

No, I don't know what will happen, but what I have problems with is again this hurry that somehow HD DVD is dead and we should all drop it right now. It's absolutely ridiculous.

HD DVD CAN come back. They have EVERYTHING on their side except a bit weaker software support and even there they will have a massive advantage this year with exclusive blockbusters being in their corner.

Let me remind you:

HD DVD has:

1. $100-$199 for EXCELLENT players from low to high-end (A35 models)

2. Technologically it is possible for them to offer HD and SD DVD version on the same disc with SD being phased out so the mass adoption starts pretty transparent for consumers

3. Again, the format is completed and offers things that even the new 1.1 players don't

4. All discs are guaranteed to play on any player you have or will get

5. 4th Gen HD DVD players with rumoured networking capabilities like Netflix streaming and USB enabled devices are to be out around Q3 2008

Blu-Ray has:

1. Warner which account for about 20% more content for Blu

2. $300 or even more (price not confirmed) Funai player that will be profile 1.1 and is still to be tested with 2.0 discs other players are $400+ and no profile 2.0 players this year

3. PS3 phases out 80gb version and keeps the 40gb version with no PS2 backward compatibilty in order to try to lower the leak of money, yet they continue to lose at least a $100 per PS3. No price drop on PS3 mentioned in contrast to rumoured drop.

4. Some retailer support through financial deals where they are trying to kill off HD DVD but major retailers are still pretty much pushing HD DVD, but major players like Best Buy, Costco, Fry's Electronics, Walmart, Sam's Club and others continue offering sub $150 HD DVD players now with more end caps present for Toshiba.

So, basically the only thing that has changed is BDA and fans screaming it's over, while everyone else is pretty much taking "let's wait and see approach". Or you might've missed many press releases from major retailers that the war is not over?

Paid off, given away, none of it really matter at this early stage. That's all part of winning the exposure side of the war. Get your product in as many houses as possible - The real profits from the HD market won't be made till the DVD market move over so it's a great idea to practically give stuff away just now, as exposure at the early stages reaps more benefit than ??? sales do.

What is on paper, is true and it's currently showing more Blu Ray titles in peoples homes, more Blu Ray players in peoples homes (im including the PS3), more studios supporting Blu Ray, ect - There is no way you can twist that to look any different. The figures are just flat out more in Blu Rays favour.

They are all businesses and work with money, not fanboyism.

Exactly, and on paper Blu Ray looks the more lucrative format to support just now, due to the figures, what the media are saying, where the studio support lies, and due to worldwide advertising.

The PS3 will help sell Blu Ray to the casual market with continuing drops in its price. It will probably come down quicker in price than standalone players, but to be fair an article was posted recentely saying blu ray laser manufacturing prices had dropped.

(also I want to correct you on losing $100, PS3 manufacturing costs are currently at $400, that is breaking even in my books)

I'm a wait and see kind of guy, im very sorry if you feel otherwise. All I'm saying is Blu Ray is in a much stronger position than HD-DVD just now, not that the war is over - Please don't confuse that.

Just because someone thinks Blu Ray is winning/is in a stronger position doesn't automatically = they think the war is over.

All of this will need to be taken to the Blu Ray top:/ :/ This has gone offtopic again from the topic it's in.

Edited January 28, 2008 by Audioboxer

[TruckWEB]

No, I don't know what will happen, but what I have problems with is again this hurry that somehow HD DVD is dead and we should all drop it right now. It's absolutely ridiculous.

HD DVD CAN come back. They have EVERYTHING on their side except a bit weaker software support and even there they will have a massive advantage this year with exclusive blockbusters being in their corner.

Let me remind you:

HD DVD has:

1. $100-$199 for EXCELLENT players from low to high-end (A35 models)

2. Technologically it is possible for them to offer HD and SD DVD version on the same disc with SD being phased out so the mass adoption starts pretty transparent for consumers

3. Again, the format is completed and offers things that even the new 1.1 players don't

4. All discs are guaranteed to play on any player you have or will get

5. 4th Gen HD DVD players with rumoured networking capabilities like Netflix streaming and USB enabled devices are to be out around Q3 2008

Blu-Ray has:

1. Warner which account for about 20% more content for Blu

2. $300 or even more (price not confirmed) Funai player that will be profile 1.1 and is still to be tested with 2.0 discs other players are $400+ and no profile 2.0 players this year

3. PS3 phases out 80gb version and keeps the 40gb version with no PS2 backward compatibilty in order to try to lower the leak of money, yet they continue to lose at least a $100 per PS3. No price drop on PS3 mentioned in contrast to rumoured drop.

4. Some retailer support through financial deals where they are trying to kill off HD DVD but major retailers are still pretty much pushing HD DVD, but major players like Best Buy, Costco, Fry's Electronics, Walmart, Sam's Club and others continue offering sub $150 HD DVD players now with more end caps present for Toshiba.

I'll invite you to look at ebay... It's crazy the amount of people putting their HD-DVD player and movies for sale. Some even have "Buy Now" at ridiculus low price. So, some customers seems to want to move away from HD-DVD. This is not helping in anyway this format....

And everything you say about HD-DVD, price, performance, complete standard, is right. BUT, LOOK at this war, LOOK, it's not being won by customers demand or anything like that. It's ALL about money and WHO will give more to buyout studio, shelf space, marketing, .....

HD-DVD player could go on sale for $25 for all I care, but IF you don't have anything to watch on it, why the hell would you want to buy it??

And you don't have anything to back your Disney/FOX going neutral by Q3-2008. It's only wishful thinking that you're doing. What about Universal and Paramount going neutral? OR shifting to Blu only? Those too could happen, sometime in the unknown future.

[Boz]

HD-DVD player could go on sale for $25 for all I care, but IF you don't have anything to watch on it, why the hell would you want to buy it??

And you don't have anything to back your Disney/FOX going neutral by Q3-2008. It's only wishful thinking that you're doing. What about Universal and Paramount going neutral? OR shifting to Blu only? Those too could happen, sometime in the unknown future.

First of all, 400+ titles is hardly NOTHING to watch. The new titles in the 2008 like Ironman, There Will Be Blood, BeeMovie, American Gangster, Mummy 3 and many others are most likely be exclusive HD DVD titles. So I'm sorry, I don't understand where you get nothing?

I just watched Mission Impossible 2 and 3 last night and realized how cool these movies are and they are exclusive HD DVD titles. Add to that Batman Begins, Matrix all Warner titles that you most likely won't see on Blu-Ray this year (maybe Batman because of Dark Knight, but that's not confirmed) this year HD DVD owners will have PLENTY of movies to watch.

Again, I'm listing these items, just to show you that it's not valid to say there are not titles out. Maybe there are not titles that you LIKE, but that's quite subjective. I personally own a lot more HD DVD titles not because I buy titles like crazy on HD DVD just so they get more sales from, but because Blu-Ray truly doesn't have a lot of great movies for me. I already bought all movies I liked on Blu-Ray and still my collection of Blu-Ray movies are at close to 50 barely. I now have over 120 HD DVD movies and maybe 2-3 movies I bought that I really didn't like, but I just bought them early on to see the HD benefits.

You are right, but to be fair, I did not claim that it's a certainty that either Disney or Fox will start publishing in HD DVD, but it's definitely a possibility. Why not. They've been publishing on Blu-Ray because of incentives, not because they love Sony. If Toshiba comes out and says to Disney or Fox, here we'll give you this and that, subsidize costs here and there, pay for your marketing (well pretty much like Sony did for them in the beginning), they can very well publish in HD DVD. Don't forget I'm not talking about them going HD DVD exclusive, no, I'm just saying that they can very well go consumer positive and say we'll just offer movies on both formats, just like Warner did. Sure, Universal and Paramount can go Blu-Ray too, but due to their recent announcements and Paramount's early contract from last year, it's highly unlikely.

And as far as your eBay remark.. well look at the same thing under Blu-Ray, there's a bunch of people selling there and even more then HD DVD, what does that prove?

[Coldgunner]

MI: trilogy was on BD too

[TruckWEB]

First of all, 400+ titles is hardly NOTHING to watch. The new titles in the 2008 like Ironman, There Will Be Blood, BeeMovie, American Gangster, Mummy 3 and many others are most likely be exclusive HD DVD titles. So I'm sorry, I don't understand where you get nothing?

OK, maybe "Nothing" was a bit hard, but then again, depending on stuff we don't know (The Future), and going by the recent "wave" of Blu-Ray "wins", it could suggest that maybe, sometime in the future, you could be "stuck" with a HD-DVD player with "nothing new" to watch on it. And when ONE format will emerge as the winner, I can only suppose that the back catalog will be avalable to the winner format. SO, your Mission Impossible, Batman, BeeMovie, could all endup on Blu-Ray.

And you can have it the other way around to. And have all current Blu-Ray movies out on HD-DVD if it wins. But "right now" the wind is blowing on the Blu side.

About ebay, yes you can find Blu-Ray, but I found that most "bundle" of player+movies are from HD-DVD sellers. People trying to get out of it while they can.

Then again, we are talking about what.... 2% of the WORLD that is buying into HD stuff? So, 98% are still not "aware" of HD, don't have HDTV, are happy with DVD or simply don't care.... By the time the rest of the world join this battle, Internet Downloaded/streamed 1080p movies will be the new format, on IPTV setup box or something like that....

[Boz]

MI: trilogy was on BD too

;)

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

OK, maybe "Nothing" was a bit hard, but then again, depending on stuff we don't know (The Future), and going by the recent "wave" of Blu-Ray "wins", it could suggest that maybe, sometime in the future, you could be "stuck" with a HD-DVD player with "nothing new" to watch on it. And when ONE format will emerge as the winner, I can only suppose that the back catalog will be avalable to the winner format. SO, your Mission Impossible, Batman, BeeMovie, could all endup on Blu-Ray.

And you can have it the other way around to. And have all current Blu-Ray movies out on HD-DVD if it wins. But "right now" the wind is blowing on the Blu side.

About ebay, yes you can find Blu-Ray, but I found that most "bundle" of player+movies are from HD-DVD sellers. People trying to get out of it while they can.

Then again, we are talking about what.... 2% of the WORLD that is buying into HD stuff? So, 98% are still not "aware" of HD, don't have HDTV, are happy with DVD or simply don't care.... By the time the rest of the world join this battle, Internet Downloaded/streamed 1080p movies will be the new format, on IPTV setup box or something like that....

As I said before that will just not become mainstream till internet connections are similar worldwide.

People in the UK for example cannot afford to burn up 6-10GB a movie on their connections when monthly limits are set anywhere between 2-40GB.

Yes that only applies if you have a monthly limit, but the majority of the people in the UK do as they go with the broadband/TV/telephone packages for cheap.

And when you don't have a monthly limit its usually unlimited with a "fair use policy" which means download 100-200GB a month continually and your ISP will contact you saying you aren't being "fair", stop it...

[TruckWEB]

As I said before that will just not become mainstream till internet connections are similar worldwide.

People in the UK for example cannot afford to burn up 6-10GB a movie on their connections when monthly limits are set anywhere between 2-40GB.

Yes that only applies if you have a monthly limit, but the majority of the people in the UK do as they go with the broadband/TV/telephone packages for cheap.

And when you don't have a monthly limit its usually unlimited with a "fair use policy" which means download 100-200GB a month continually and your ISP will contact you saying you aren't being "fair", stop it...

Yeah, but I'm talking about the future here... In a couple of years from now. How many time did it take for DVD to replace VHS? I'm talking about the same amount of time. If everything move to IPTV or downloaded/streamed movies, I can only imagine that some kind of deal will have to be made with ALL ISP (worldwide) to push somekind of new package or ways of selling their services.

Hey, maybe Internet2 will happen sometime.... They do speed test all the time and I guess they can transfer a full Blu-Ray movies in only minutes now. That would be cool....

Think about FiOS, Fiber to your house. This is alot faster than cable/ADSL....

I'm deep into the future here. And that future is not on a disc....

[theyarecomingforyou]

If Toshiba comes out and says to Disney or Fox, here we'll give you this and that, subsidize costs here and there, pay for your marketing (well pretty much like Sony did for them in the beginning), they can very well publish in HD DVD. Don't forget I'm not talking about them going HD DVD exclusive, no, I'm just saying that they can very well go consumer positive and say we'll just offer movies on both formats, just like Warner did. Sure, Universal and Paramount can go Blu-Ray too, but due to their recent announcements and Paramount's early contract from last year, it's highly unlikely.

Yes, but it will cost the HD-DVD group a lot of money and they situation is far from secure, with a prediction from Gartner saying that Blu-ray will have won by the end of this year. Not only that but Sony/BDA could offer them more money again, an easier thing to justify when their format is the better selling. With stores like Woolworths dropping HD-DVD it seems an uphill struggle to make a come back, whereas backing Blu-ray would be a safer bet. Paramount and Universal signed an exclusive contract for 18-months - if Blu-ray is dominating the market at the end of that, which all signs are pointing to, then those studios won't be willing to cut off the money from Blu-ray customers to accept payment from the HD-DVD group.

Instead of spending more money dragging this out they should be looking for a way to end this. That would stop them losing money, benefit consumers and accelerate adoption of the hi-def format. Both sides took a chance and tried to corner the market so that they could make more money... both through money about to do so, creating an unclean war... now Blu-ray has a considerable lead it's time for the HD-DVD group to cut its losses. Sony has stated they are still open to working something out with them, whereas dragging this on will likely cost them a lot of money.

The format itself is pretty irrelevant. There are few differences between them and those that exist have been exaggerated by both sides. At the end of the day consumers just want to buy movies and having two formats only creates problems.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Yeah, but I'm talking about the future here... In a couple of years from now. How many time did it take for DVD to replace VHS? I'm talking about the same amount of time. If everything move to IPTV or downloaded/streamed movies, I can only imagine that some kind of deal will have to be made with ALL ISP (worldwide) to push somekind of new package or ways of selling their services.

Hey, maybe Internet2 will happen sometime.... They do speed test all the time and I guess they can transfer a full Blu-Ray movies in only minutes now. That would be cool....

Think about FiOS, Fiber to your house. This is alot faster than cable/ADSL....

I'm deep into the future here. And that future is not on a disc....

A couple of years?

When you have BT in charge of your countries telephone lines, a couple of years for them = a million years in reality :laugh:

Sorry, but a couple of years won't do it.

I think nearer 8-15 years for this to come true worldwide.

It's not just about the ISP monthly caps, it's also about the coverage - In the UK there are still areas without broadband, and others areas limited to 1-2mb tops (infact 1-3/4mb connections are probably the majority in the UK).

Cable connections probably aren't even available in more than 50% of the UK either.

I can get 3MB where I am, on an 8MB ADSL Max connection - Hardly the "8MB" I pay for, but it's just the way it is.

Streaming a 1080p movie over 3mb would not cut it. Hell downloading a 1080p movie over 3mb takes long enough as it is.

Also as for fiber optics, we in the UK can dream. I doubt any household user is connected over a fibre optic connection in the UK. Unless you live slap bang in the middle of London or something.

The UK is light years behind America in terms of internet connections/speeds/cable and TV packages/digital.

[houlty]

Yeah, but I'm talking about the future here... In a couple of years from now. How many time did it take for DVD to replace VHS? I'm talking about the same amount of time. If everything move to IPTV or downloaded/streamed movies, I can only imagine that some kind of deal will have to be made with ALL ISP (worldwide) to push somekind of new package or ways of selling their services.

Hey, maybe Internet2 will happen sometime.... They do speed test all the time and I guess they can transfer a full Blu-Ray movies in only minutes now. That would be cool....

Think about FiOS, Fiber to your house. This is alot faster than cable/ADSL....

I'm deep into the future here. And that future is not on a disc....

unfortunately, for the uk at least, fibre optic is at least 5 years away (if the government even decide to adopt it), which is plenty of time for a hi definition disc become standard.

the first massively adopted hi definition generation will be disc based, then download based. imo.

[Boz]

Yeah, but I'm talking about the future here... In a couple of years from now. How many time did it take for DVD to replace VHS? I'm talking about the same amount of time. If everything move to IPTV or downloaded/streamed movies, I can only imagine that some kind of deal will have to be made with ALL ISP (worldwide) to push somekind of new package or ways of selling their services.

Hey, maybe Internet2 will happen sometime.... They do speed test all the time and I guess they can transfer a full Blu-Ray movies in only minutes now. That would be cool....

Think about FiOS, Fiber to your house. This is alot faster than cable/ADSL....

I'm deep into the future here. And that future is not on a disc....

Absolutely agree with you there. HD DVD or Blu-Ray are just transition with Sony pushing optical media much harder due to it's connections with it. The CE industry simply has problems with optical media going away. They will stop making money on it so they are trying to push HD optical media everywhere again.

In 3-4 even 5 years from now, we will have 100mbps or more connections everywhere. Hell Comcast/Cox CEO or CTO said 160mbps coming to US in 2008. I've read similar announcements for UK and some other western EU countries. Japan is already at 100mbps. So within 2-3 years, we are bound to see this come to reality on a much wider scale.

As for optical media. I don't see the future for it either (maybe for movies for people who want to have nice packaging) but nothing else. I just don't see people using slow, writeability limited media despite promises of 100gb discs. It doesn't make sense to use that anymore. With SSDs pushing 128gb now at higher prices, I see them pushing 500gb and more by end of 2009 with low prices. SSDs are fast, small, virtually indestructable and very durable with over 2+ million working hours. Add to that new wave of USB devices, dirt cheap eSATA and USB 1tb drives. Optical media is history IMO.

[Coldgunner]

optical has many years left in it, theres a huge market for physical media and none of us know what may supercede this generation. Internet downloads are a long way off mainly because most countries need a completely new infrastructure to cope with it, and like here in the UK no company is willing to invest and will continue to oversell themselves, putting on lame things like fair usage policies and download caps.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Absolutely agree with you there. HD DVD or Blu-Ray are just transition with Sony pushing optical media much harder due to it's connections with it. The CE industry simply has problems with optical media going away. They will stop making money on it so they are trying to push HD optical media everywhere again.

In 3-4 even 5 years from now, we will have 100mbps or more connections everywhere. Hell Comcast/Cox CEO or CTO said 160mbps coming to US in 2008. I've read similar announcements for UK and some other western EU countries. Japan is already at 100mbps. So within 2-3 years, we are bound to see this come to reality on a much wider scale.

As for optical media. I don't see the future for it either (maybe for movies for people who want to have nice packaging) but nothing else. I just don't see people using slow, writeability limited media despite promises of 100gb discs. It doesn't make sense to use that anymore. With SSDs pushing 128gb now at higher prices, I see them pushing 500gb and more by end of 2009 with low prices. SSDs are fast, small, virtually indestructable and very durable with over 2+ million working hours. Add to that new wave of USB devices, dirt cheap eSATA and USB 1tb drives. Optical media is history IMO.

That is not going to happen.

The UK has to get broadband to everywhere in the country first, and then to reach speeds of 100mbps half of the UK would need to be dug up to put down new lines.

I honestly dont think you guys realise how outdated we are in the UK with our internet connections. BT will not have done all the work required in 3-4 years to have 100mbps connections all over the UK.

I live here, I know how bad it is.

The UK is only just starting to try out ADSL2 (24MBPS) in rural areas (mostly high industrial places such as London and other major cities)... And no doubt it will work like our current 8MB ADSL MAX connections - Depending on how close you live to the exchange it will affect what speed you get - My connection for example, 3MB on an 8MB ADSL MAX connection.

My exchange - http://www.samknows.com/broadband/exchange.php?ecode=WSCAR

No cable, and do you like all the "not availables" ? :/ (some of them are outdated though, im on Entanet which is currently showing as "not available"- however some of the large ones like sky/virgin and any ISP using cable aren't available for sure)

Edited January 28, 2008 by Audioboxer

[theyarecomingforyou]

Not only that but do I want all my media to be streamed? What happens then if the government wants to censor a movie or a scene? They simply have to apply a bit of pressure and boom... it's gone. And what happens when that company goes broke? The other option is to download entire HD movies but why would I want my hard-disk space taken up when I can simply buy it on disc and get a nice box with artwork, inlays and the such? Then you have to factor in the fact that 90% of connections in the UK are limited either by a download limit or by a very restrictive fair usage policy and that is unlikely to change in a hurry. Maximum download speeds will increase but the infrastructure simply isn't in place to cope with high usage. Cable users already suffer during peak times, so streaming 50GB movies is not a good solution... and if they're not that size then you might as well buy them on disc because the quality will be better.

Internet distribution is the way of the future but it is a long way off. Sky already offers movie downloads via the internet but the quality is poor, they expire and they're generally pretty inconvenient... I prefer just watching movies normally with my Sky box. If they're compressing STANDARD DEF movies so severely then I have no confidence that they won't try to do a similar thing with HD. iTunes already offers worse quality than CD and that is limiting uptake.

SSDs are simply FAR too expensive for movies and aren't going to come down below the cost of HD-DVD / Blu-ray discs... which will then be superseded by holographic discs.

Edited January 29, 2008 by bmaher

[TruckWEB]

That is not going to happen.

The UK has to get broadband to everywhere in the country first, and then to reach speeds of 100mbps half of the UK would need to be dug up to put down new lines.

Well, maybe UK can stand to live in Stone Age, but guess what, "most" of the connected world will be able to go much faster on the Web in a couple of years.

And I fear (for you) that the technology will not wait for UK....

So, stop with your "not going to happen". Some things are bigger than UK.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Well, maybe UK can stand to live in Stone Age, but guess what, "most" of the connected world will be able to go much faster on the Web in a couple of years.

And I fear (for you) that the technology will not wait for UK....

So, stop with your "not going to happen". Some things are bigger than UK.

For web distribution to take over the major countries in the world need to be supported. The UK is a big player in movies/gaming ect. Probably not far behind Japan/America at all, maybe even following in 3rd position.

If the UK couldn't go with web distrubution physical media would need to carry on, that's my argument.

I don't doubt web distribution starting in as soon as a few years, hell its started now, but it will not overtake physical media in a few years - Or at least put an end to physical media in that sort of timeframe.

The reason it was brought up by people was to try and speculate that HD-DVD/Blu Ray would be short lived as streaming would overtake it quickly - My argument is that won't happen. How long HD-DVD/Blu Ray or HD physical formats will last? How do I know, but my guess on it not dying in a few years is pretty strong with the arguments I bring IMO.

Australia are even worse than the UK for speeds/monthly download limits.

[Coldgunner]

if you was to average the worlds internet speeds, the UK would be in the top half, but, like many other countries our system cannot take such huge hits in bandwidth. The ISP's will not let their caps and overselling go away neither. I can see picking up a BD for a fiver with the weekly shop in 10 years. I bet most of you never saw that happening when dvd was still a new format.

[draklin]

Well, maybe UK can stand to live in Stone Age, but guess what, "most" of the connected world will be able to go much faster on the Web in a couple of years.

And I fear (for you) that the technology will not wait for UK....

So, stop with your "not going to happen". Some things are bigger than UK.

Yes, downloaded media is part of the future. But only part. Physical media will always have a place because there are so many places that will not have the bandwidth. How many companies are racing to put fiber in the northern territories? Hell, my step-mom came from a place that just celebrated the fact that they got their first sidewalk in the town! You think verizon has any intention of bringing fiber there anytime soon?

[Boz]

Dolmen Video and Mikado go HD DVD only (Italy)

There is still some good news for HD DVD. Dolmen Video and Mikado have announced to go HD DVD only in Italy.

Their first four movies, which will be available starting January, will be:

Kyashan - La rinascita

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0405821/

http://www.apple.com/jp/quicktime/trailers...hern_large.html

Shinobi

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0475723/

http://www.apple.com/jp/quicktime/trailers.../shinobi/l.html

Reincarnation

http://www.moviexclusive.com/review/reinca...incarnation.htm

http://www.apple.com/trailers/independent/...nation/trailer/

Wolf Creek

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0416315/

All HD DVDs will be presented in the OAR and will be encoded utilizing AVC.

Except for the price of 24,99 EUR, there are no other infos regarding extras and languages.

Some additional movies from these distributors:

• Hotel Rwanda (MGM Home Video in the US)
  
• Nine Lives (Magnolia in the US)
  
• Zatoichi (Miramax)
  
• Girl with a Pearl Earring (Lions Gate)
  
• Comandante (HBO)
  
• Naqoyqatsi (Miramax)
  
• Full Frontal (Miramax)
  
• Bowling for Columbine (MGM)
  
• Thirteen Conversations About One Thing (Columbia TriStar)
  
• Requiem for a Dream (Dolmen)
  
• Rashomon (Dolmen)
  

[Huleboeren]

Why would they decide to do this in Italy only? :s

Ahh Requim For A Dream - now THAT is a depressing movie :D