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UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller


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So here we go into the 3rd FOX card and it has LW title implications written all over it. Let's look at the card.

UFC_on_FOX_3.jpg

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola - Massenzio lasted a minute against Paul Harris, losing his last bout by devastating heel hook. Why he didn't tap as soon as Paul Harris got his leg? Nobody knows. His future employment is on the line in this fight as a loss puts him on a 2 fight losing streak and his overall UFC record is a not very pretty 2-4. Vemola, on the other hand, was a not very good HW who then became a not very good LHW and is now debuting at MW. He's a wrestling champion who isn't very good at applying wrestling to MMA. Not a very good combination of skills. A loss here would crush any hope he had of a UFC undercard fodder career.

Roland Delorme vs. Nick Denis - Why is the guy with the most awesome nickname in the UFC fighting on the Facebook card? Nick "The Ninja of Love" Denis made a splash in his UFC by taking less than 30 seconds to KO Joseph Sandoval with standing elbows. Delorme is stepping in on short notice, replacing Johnny Bedford aka BW Fitch, a much bigger BW than him. The short notice combined with his lack of experience (he got knocked out of TUF pretty quickly) makes me think that this fight isn't going his way.

Preliminary card (Fuel TV)

Dennis Bermudez vs. Pablo Garza - Bermudez had the TUF contract in his grasp, almost KO'ing Diego Brand?o before getting caught in a suprise armbar. It's funny how he's getting another UFC fight despite being on a 3 fight losing streak. He has shown to be a decent wrestler and has some power in his hands for a FW. Garza is an oddity: a 1,85m FW who knows how to use his reach. He got beaten down by Dustin Poirier but he's still a top tier fighter in the weightclass. He's shown to be proficient in both striking and submissions and has a definitive reach advantage. Bermudez better come prepared or else he's adding another loss to his record.

Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish - Pretty balanced fight here. Cholish had a nice UFC debut at UFC 140 and has shown troughout his career that he has a nice submission game. Castillo knows how to keep the pressure on and is the only guy to ever beat Poirier, albeit at LW.

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker - Gaudinot finally gets a chance to debut at his natural weightclass after getting trucked easily by BW Johnny Bedford. Facing him is Jungle Fight veteran Lineker in his UFC debut. Gaudinot has a serious experience deficit here but maybe he can compensate it with pure athleticism in his natural weightclass. Either way, both guys are sticking around now that the UFC's FLW division is starting up.

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss - These guys FINALLY get to fight, after a lot of almost-fights in the last few months. Two of the top european prospects, this match has potential. Hathaway holds wins over Sanchez and Story, great all-round fighter. Krauss has been on a 10-0 tear in European promotions and now faces a very tough test in Hathaway. The winner of this bout will get a nice boost to his WW title aspirations. Maybe a fight with Rory is in their near future.

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott - BW winner of TUF, dropped immediately to Flyweight. He's strong, athletic and has a lot of experience fighting at the weight. Tim Elliott is an almost complete unknown but he's ranked in the Top 15 of the weighclass so let's see what he brings to the table.

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson - Michael Johnson, the wrestler who can't hold people down, is going to get ****ed up, badly! Tony Ferguson may not be a world beater but he's a very competent and strong striker and seeing how Shane Roller was tagging Johnson, I don't think he'll be able to remain conscious.

Main card

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson - If in doubt about Lavar's striking prowess, just watch what he did to Joey Beltran. Either Barry pulls a submission, the only thing Lavar's vulnerable to, or he's toast. If he choses to stand and bang with Lavar, it's going to be a very short night for him. Lavar is a trully big HW (1,93m to Barry's 1,80m) with HEAVY hands and he always comes to bang and press for the finish. Seeng how Barry's chin isn't really made of steel and how hard Lavar hits... Pat Barry is going to die.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher - It's almost a shame that a nice guy like Alan Belcher returns from a long lay-off to fight, and probably lose to, Paul Harris. Belcher is a great guy, he's 28 so he still has a few years ahead of him but he had a very serious eye injury that almost made him blind. Now they're fitting him for a nice knee injury. Either Belcher KO's him quickly or avoids getting the fight to the ground all-together or he's getting submitted by heel hook.

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks - Two guys with big right hands enter the Octagon. One is a nice guy who recently ended Fitch's future aspirations to anything. The other is a jackass who looked like crap eeking out a win over Mike Pierce. This is either going to be a flash KO or a boring wrestling match. Winner of this is "in the mix", whatever the **** that means.

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller - And now the fight that will in all certainty decide the next challenger for Benson's belt after he wipes the floor with Edgar again. We already know them, we've seen them in action countless times. Miller, grappling monster with an incredible chin, got his streak smashed by the top-control wrestling of Henderson but recently bounced back by submitting dumbass Melvin Guillard, who insisted on throwing flying knees without any real need to. Diaz, recently returned to LW after getting smashed to bits and pieces at WW, put a beating on Donald Cerrone in his last fight and is no stranger to submissions. He does have one advantage over Miller: he has better striking and equal submissions. Miller can't really strike his way into victory against Diaz, needing to relly more on his submission game. He does, however, have an adamantium chin which will prove a tough obstacle that Diaz must overcome. FOTN probably.

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I think Pat Barry will frustrate Lavar if he sticks to his game plan. Lavar is only good for landing the bombs but lacks an all around game. The leg kicks will hurt.

Cheering for Bermudez. Think the kid has heart and the talent will only get better. Definitely like Ferguson as well especially against Johnson. Not a big fan of the Blackzillians, I think they are going about their whole training/game planning wrong.

Jim Miller is a good kid and should win this but I'm always a Diaz fan.

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I think Pat Barry will frustrate Lavar if he sticks to his game plan. Lavar is only good for landing the bombs but lacks an all around game. The leg kicks will hurt.

Cheering for Bermudez. Think the kid has heart and the talent will only get better. Definitely like Ferguson as well especially against Johnson. Not a big fan of the Blackzillians, I think they are going about their whole training/game planning wrong.

Jim Miller is a good kid and should win this but I'm always a Diaz fan.

Did you manage to type that out with a straight face? :rofl: Lavar has zero ground game but I don't think he will be too phased by leg kicks. Sooner or later, Barry's brawling instincts will surface and he will be met by that freight train of a right hand that Lavar has. Between landing 50 leg kicks and landing 3 or 4 solid uppercuts, I still think Lavar has the edge if the fight is kept standing.

The Blackzillians is just a plain weird camp. Either they're too agressive like Guillard or not enough when they're down in the scorecards. Eddie Alvarez trains there, might be his way into the UFC (finally).

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Did you manage to type that out with a straight face? :rofl: Lavar has zero ground game but I don't think he will be too phased by leg kicks. Sooner or later, Barry's brawling instincts will surface and he will be met by that freight train of a right hand that Lavar has. Between landing 50 leg kicks and landing 3 or 4 solid uppercuts, I still think Lavar has the edge if the fight is kept standing.

The Blackzillians is just a plain weird camp. Either they're too agressive like Guillard or not enough when they're down in the scorecards. Eddie Alvarez trains there, might be his way into the UFC (finally).

Straight face yup. I've watched Lavars fights and was never extremely impressed until the mexicutioner got tagged. But still, even though Barry ain't GOAT, I think HD got this.

For the Blackzillians, I just don't feel race should come into play as the new nationalism. I don't care much for stuff like that. Seems to be too many yes men get involved.

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Rumor has it that the winner of Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller & Johny Hendricks vs. Josh Koscheck is garanteed a title shot. Diaz vs Miller, sure. Hendricks or Koscheck passing over Juggernaut? Not very likely. If they did that, it would be a seriously dickish move for Ellengerger.

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Just watched the prelims. Goddamn, did the flyweights deliver. Comments in bold.

Dennis Bermudez vs. Pablo Garza - Seems like Bermudez did his homework and came prepared. He efectively neutralized the reach disadvantage by keeping the fight up close and personal, clinching agains the fence when needed. He also showed some impressive wrestling, ragdolling Pablo Garza several times like he weighted nothing. Despite Garza's ground game, he couldn't mount anything significant due to Bermudez' relentless pressure from the top. He really must work on his wrestling defense, Bermudez was taking him down and throwing him around like it was nothing. Garza will be back, a guy with that kind of range still means trouble for a unprepared FW. Bermudez finally picks up a win, breaking a 3 figh losing streak. Maybe have him fight Jonathan Brookins next.

Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish - Pretty lukewarm fight. Castillo used his grappling to dictate the pace of the fight and edged out the win.

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker - What a fight. Both guys came out swinging hard. Lineker was pouding on Gaudinot's body like he was Rocky but didn't have the chops to stop the takedowns. Still, Lineker was pouring it on and clearly wasn't working for a decision. Lineker should have just slammed Gaudinot in the middle of the ring instead of going up to the fence with the guillotine in. He would've probably lost anyway but it was the smarter play. All in all, a very exciting fight. Lineker fights Tim Elliott and Gaudinot gets John Dodson.

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss - Both guys showed clear signs of ring rust. Hathaway was the superior fighter, cracking Krauss again and again with knees and punches and holding his own on the ground. It was a nice fight. Still, none of these guys is remotely a match for Rory MacDonald. Maybe match up Hathaway with Siyar Bahadurzada? Krauss could fight either Che Mills or Papy Abedi.

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott - Man, do flyweights deliver. Tim Elliott came out throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Dodson: punches, kicks, cartwheels, etc. I'm pretty sure that had he not been poked that badly in the first round, we could've seen a much different fight. Dodson was also throwing some crazy stuff but pretty sure that got the order from Greg Jackson not to. Elliot was a bit out of steam in the 3rd and wasn't really in a position to take advantage of Dodson's left hand being broken but he fought to the end and did tag him a bit. The decision could have really gone either way on a 29-28. Like I said above, match them up with the other flyweights on this card. Dodson is still a bit far away from a title shot and even farther from a belt.

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson - Goddamn, did Michael Johnson improve. He came out and fought his fight, very clearly beating Ferguson with superior footwork and striking. And he didn't even have to use any of his wrestling. He never had Ferguson in any real trouble (the first knockdown was due to Ferguson's flat footed stance and he wasn't really rocked) but he got a very clear 30-27 decision. Ferguson, on the other hand, looked nothing like the guy that ran through TUF on the power of his hands. He was tenative, didn't close the distance effectively and when he landed with damage, he didn't follow it up as he should. The lack of a sense of urgency in the 3rd also did him in. I didn't hear what his corner was saying but there was no way he could've thought that he was ahead on the scores after those 2 rounds. Had he rushed in like a bull, he could've probably tagged Johnson hard enough for a KO. Could've, should've, would've... Next for Johnson? I don't know. Maybe match him up with Thiago Tavares who he just replaced? As for Ferguson, let's do something crazy. Give him Melvin Guillard. Guillard has 2 losses in a row and needs to build himself back up. Ferguson would provide the perfect rebound fight.

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On to the main card.

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson - :rofl: Told ya. Pat Barry had victory within his grasp when he got Lavar to the ground (due to Lavar's own shortcomings after stuffing the takedown) but just wasn't able to get a submission going or change up his offense when his "knee on belly" strategy wasn't working. Barry had nothing for Lavar on the feet, he ate the leg kicks and the kicks to head like it was nothing. The final flurry was brutal. Barry trying to kick out of it was really dumb, he should have clinched it up to stop the onslaught. After a while, he was just a punching bag just barely standing up due to the force of the punches. Barry faces the same HW dilemma as Chad Griggs: he's underskilled for LHW but can't really compete in size and strenght. Altough seeing how Pat Barry trains with Duke Roufus, I think he could improve to the point where he would stand toe-to-toe with the Vladimir Matyushenko's of the LHW division. As for Lavar, winner of Mark Hunt vs Stefan Struve or winner of Fabricio Werdum vs Mike Russow (CRAZY matchmaking going on in the HW division).

Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher -If you are aware that BJJ exists, it cannot harm you. Belcher just thrust himself into the MW title scene, probably 2 wins away from a title shot, by not only beating Paul Harris convincingly but also beating him at his own game. He was attacking with crazy submissions like the twister and the crotch ripper (aka Banana split) and defended all leglock attempts. He wasn't afraid to take it to the ground against Toquinho and that puts him right in the Top 5 of the division. Those elbows he delivered from inside Toquinho's guard were brutal and certainly sealed the deal. Belcher needs to fighter a upper tier opponent for his next fight but most of the MW division is still tangled up with Mu?oz vs Weidman, Stann vs Lombard and Boetsch vs Bisping. Of those three, I think he should get the winner of Lombard vs Stann. As for Paul Harris, he isn't going anywhere and will continue to be terror of orthopedic surgeons everywhere.

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks - Koscheck's passiveness cost him dearly. You could see in the grappling exchanges that he was just biding his time until the ref separated them and that cost him because Hendricks kept scoring. His eye also got totally ****ed up again so he'll probably be out for another couple of months. He had the victory in his grasp but decided he didn't want to put in the hard work and just coast. He wasn't bad per se, his striking was good, his grappling as well, he just got outworked. Hendricks looked pretty great in the fight, eating some big punches but replying in kind. He certainly has chin and power to bang with anyone. Combine that with wrestling skill and he's all around threat that his moving up the ranks. Will Dana give him the title shot? It's very likely seeing how Martin Kampmann is going to fight Jake Ellenberger in the meanwhile. Juggernaut can't catch a break. Loser of Kampmann vs Ellenberger or winner of Alves vs Akyiama (Alves, duh!) fights Koscheck. Either those or maybe Diego Sanchez who's without a dance partner after a loss to Juggernaut.

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller - :| Wow... Jim Miller got dominated. Diaz outstruck him and when the time came, outgrappled Miller into a submission win, the first guy to ever finish Miller. Still, if it didn't end by submission, I think Diaz could've eventually pounded him out. And the tongue out detail... goddamn, that was brutal. So, Diaz probably just got himself to the top of the heap at LW and will get the next shot after Edgar has another go at it. What does he say? Says Gil Melendez is the greatest LW of them all. :angry: Christ dude, don't you want your brother to be able to afford a house? By saying that and probably refusing to fight him, you're just garanteeing that Gil never gets brought over from Strikeforce. Think before you talk.

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Lavar had nothing on the ground, Pat screwed himself letting him get off the hook. Lavar looks like another Carwin for sure.

Alan Belcher is an underrated 'martial artist' and showed he is back from nearly being retired due to eye injury. I'll be watching that guy in the near future.

Kos/Hendricks are wrastlers: BORING!

Nate is da man.

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Lavar had nothing on the ground, Pat screwed himself letting him get off the hook. Lavar looks like another Carwin for sure.

Alan Belcher is an underrated 'martial artist' and showed he is back from nearly being retired due to eye injury. I'll be watching that guy in the near future.

Kos/Hendricks are wrastlers: BORING!

Nate is da man.

I thought that the Koscheck vs Hendricks was alright. It was certainly better than Koscheck vs Pierce.

Pat Barry got submitted by Mirko Filipovi?. It's no surprise his ground game is very bad. And as for Lavar looking like another Carwin, it really isn't a bad thing. Carwin got to fight for the title and make some money. Actually, Lavar would be a great welcome back fight if Carwin decides to fight again (he really shouldn't).

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