Worst PC sales drop in history

[+LogicalApex MVC]

Windows 8 is hardly a failure. Announcing updates hardly concedes "failure".

Without question Windows 8 is a failure. I'd agree that PC sales have been declining due to the alternatives in the market, but the only way you can explain such a huge and deep dip is due to Windows 8. The problem is Microsoft pushed it so hard as being as being a tablet OS ("touch first") that users saw this as validation that tablets can do what PCs can do. Of course, when they then went to buy tablet they weren't remotely interested in Windows tablets. This was the big risk that I argued about many many times on here... That Microsoft would end up hastening their decline in the desktop by trying so hard to use it as a wedge into the mobile market. So far that gamble is backfiring on them and runs the risk of killing one of their cash cows prematurely.

[MorganX]

Like you said, "failure" is relative. "fixing" denotes a broken product, "improving" would be a better word. Updates aren't a bad thing, everyone else updates their products, so why is "Blue" denoting a bad thing?

A switch to heavily promoting the fix or update to the awesome Windows 8 that is still in the midst of a pretty sizeable marketing campaign, would be a bad thing IMO, relative to the current climate.

Are you at all familiar with the Osborne effect? You probably weren't born during the Osborne's time. I was still a teen. That might also come into effect with what you are suggesting:

>>The Osborne effect is a term referring to the unintended consequences of a company pre-announcement made either unaware of the risks involved or when the timing is misjudged, which ends up having a negative impact on the sales of the current product. This is often the case when a product is announced too long before its actual availability. This has the immediate effect of customers canceling or deferring orders for the current product, knowing that it will soon be obsolete, and any unexpected delays often means the new product comes to be perceived as vaporware, damaging the company's credibility and profitability.<<

They do need to hasten the development of Blue, and address as many user complaints, wants, needs, desires as possible. But promoting it heavily at this time, I personally would not recommend that. Keep leaking what you're doing and let enthusiasts promote the update/fix or whatever you want to call it. Money that would be spent promoting Blue right now should be spent developing higher quality core apps IMO, and porting XBLA games to Windows 8 Modern UI as quickly as possible.

[Dot Matrix]

A switch to heavily promoting the fix or update to the awesome Windows 8 that is still in the midst of an pretty sizeable marketing campaign, would be a bad thing IMO, relative to the current climate.

Are you at all familiar with the Osborne effect? You probably weren't born during the Osborne's time. I was still a teen. That might also come into effect with what you are suggesting:

>>The Osborne effect is a term referring to the unintended consequences of a company pre-announcement made either unaware of the risks involved or when the timing is misjudged, which ends up having a negative impact on the sales of the current product. This is often the case when a product is announced too long before its actual availability. This has the immediate effect of customers canceling or deferring orders for the current product, knowing that it will soon be obsolete, and any unexpected delays often means the new product comes to be perceived as vaporware, damaging the company's credibility and profitability.<<

The do need to hasten the development of Blue, and address as many user complaints, wants, needs, desires as possible. But promoting it heavily at this time, I personally would not recommend that. Keep leaking what you're doing and let enthusiasts promote the update/fix or whatever you want to call it. Money that would be spent promoting Blue right now should be spent developing higher quality core apps IMO, and porting XBLA games to Windows 8 Modern UI as quickly as possible.

No, I do not know of the Osborne Effect. High quality Apps is what Windows 8 needs as well. Facebook is still missing, among others. However, Windows 8 does have a plethora of other high quality apps, that allow users to get work done.

[Azusa]

When they say PC sales are down do they mean Windows sales, complete prebuilt PCs, PC components, or all of the aforementioned?

[BajiRav]

Windows 8 is such a colossal failure even Mac sales were down 22%!

[MorganX]

However, Windows 8 does have a plethora of other high quality apps, that allow users to get work done.

When discussing the plethora of high quality apps, we need to differentiate between W32 and Modern UI. That "is" important here as if you're still relying on W32 apps for the platform to be productive and meaningful, there really is no reason to upgrade from Windows 7 to Windows 8. You can enjoy those apps and not have to put up with what many find to be an obtrusive, unnecessary UI getting in the way and offering absolutely nothing to that plethora of high quality apps that allow users to get work done.

Someone at Microsoft really got themselves in a pickle... if nothing else this will be very interesting to watch.

[Motoko.]

Like you said, "failure" is relative. "fixing" denotes a broken product, "improving" would be a better word. Updates aren't a bad thing, everyone else updates their products, so why is "Blue" denoting a bad thing?

Are you playing with terminology to augment the reality of the situation?

[PGHammer]

Like you said, "failure" is relative. "fixing" denotes a broken product, "improving" would be a better word. Updates aren't a bad thing, everyone else updates their products, so why is "Blue" denoting a bad thing?

And Windows 8 supports touch via Modern UI and applications for it - however, it does NOT do so at the expense of anything, not even keyboards and mice. Touch-optional? That is a certainty, and something I haven't disputed - nor has anyone else. A touch-centric OS supports either primarily-touch or mostly touch, and to the exclusion, either partially or completely, at the expense of ANY other method. That COULD have been said of pre-3.0 Android, or early versions of iOS It is still true of iOS today. However, it is NOT true of Android of the 4.x versions (Ice Cream Sandwich and Jellybean) nor is it true of even WindowsRT.

Here is what IS true about Windows 8:

1. It is a true superset operating system. It supports touch AND keyboards/mice. It supports all the typical applications that Windows 7 did (and a large number that even Vista and XP did) along WITH new touch-based apps and applications.

2. Touch support is more obvious in Windows 8 - again, not in dispute. If anything is causing angst among those that don't have touch support on their hardware, it's that. Touch is still not only largely an option, it's still rather pricey on the desktop and on larger portables compared to non-touch hardware - for that reason alone, touch has to justify itself in terms of usability. Easier on smaller screens (where the premium is less or even non-existent) compared to larger screens (larger portables AND desktops alike).

3. One area where touch IS justifying itself is the *convertible* market - which didn't even exist with 7 or earlier. Another is larger-screen AIO PCs (another market that was a non-market with 7). However, both markets are far from the general purpose desktop or even portable market. Both designs are replacing traditional portable PCs and even desktops - however, because they aren't counted with portable PCs or desktop PCs, technically, they don't count, except as lost sales.

4. Tablets and slates - regardless of OS loaded on them, including WindowsRT - are by and large adjuncts to existing hardware in the developed world - seldom do they replace WORKING existing hardware. Along with smartphones, they have a subset of functionality of a PC running Windows 8 (or 7). In the developing world, however, such tablets and slates often DO replace an existing PC for one major reason - cost. And in a moribund economy, cost means more anywhere than it would otherwise.

5. Tablets, slates, and smartphones - regardless of OS - are able to do more now than they did with Windows 7, Windows Phone 7, Android 3.x and iOS 4. Changes in hardware AND OS changes are ALL responsible for that. All three are also more prevalent now as well - in both the developing world and the developed world. They still cost less than full-fledged PCs - even portable PCs. Therefore, if you are going to take a chance, it's easier to justify with a tablet, slate, or smartphone due to that smaller cost. (Big-time important in a poor economy.)

[Dot Matrix]

When discussing the plethora of high quality apps, we need to differentiate between W32 and Modern UI. That "is" important here as if you're still relying on W32 apps for the platform to be productive and meaningful, there really is no reason to upgrade from Windows 7 to Windows 8. You can enjoy those apps and not have to put up with what many find to be an obtrusive, unnecessary UI getting in the way and offering absolutely nothing to that plethora of high quality apps that allow users to get work done.

Someone at Microsoft really got themselves in a pickle... if nothing else this will be very interesting to watch.

Hardly a pickle when you consider the next 20 years of computing. If the market truly is moving, on then Microsoft is moving into position to move on with it.

[MorganX]

Hardly a pickle when you consider the next 20 years of computing. If the market truly is moving, on then Microsoft is moving into position to move on with it.

You're looking too far ahead. MS needs to remain relevant in desktop computing right now (not too hard, 7 insures that) and get relevant in the emerging markets (tablets and smartphones) within the next 2 years and they need to pick up the pace.

At the current pace, they will be IBM in 20 years, a huge company, largely irrelevant in desktop and consumer computing. Remember, IBM was personal computing during DOS and early Windows days.

I have no doubt MS has or can muster the resources to get out of this. I do doubt they have the leadership. Just look at the Xbox division's creative director. Makes me ask who's running the place and what exactly does Ballmer do for MS these days?

I look at the Core apps in Win 8/RT, then I look at Lync for iPad and I think, did the same company produce this? Is the Mac Business Unit that much better than the rest of the app devs at MS? Is the problem the Modern UI is just "that" bad?

I'm definitely going to watch this play out ... the sad part is, where's the competition to take advantage? Microsoft crushed them all, lol.

[Dot Matrix]

You're looking too far ahead. MS needs to remain relevant in desktop computing right now (not too hard, 7 insures that) and get relevant in the emerging markets (tablets and smartphones) within the next 2 years and they need to pick up the pace.

At the current pace, they will be IBM in 20 years, a huge company, largely irrelevant in desktop and consumer computing. Remember, IBM was personal computing during DOS and early Windows days.

I have no doubt MS has or can muster the resources to get out of this. I do doubt they have the leadership. Just look at the Xbox division's creative director. Makes me ask who's running the place and what exactly does Ballmer do for MS these days?

I look at the Core apps in Win 8/RT, then I look at Lync for iPad and I think, did the same company produce this? Is the Mac Business Unit that much better than the rest of the app devs at MS? Is the problem the Modern UI is just "that" bad?

I'm definitely going to watch this play out ... the sad part is, where's the competition to take advantage? Microsoft crushed them all, lol.

IBM was never a serious contender in anything other than hardware. It's also never too soon to be thinking far ahead. The features you see in modern operating systems were just gleams in their developer's eyes 10 years ago. Hell, Apple was developing the iPad loooong before it's debut in 2009. The features in Vista and 7 were in development long before development of those systems began.

[MorganX]

>>IBM was never a serious contender in anything other than hardware.<<

Relative to desktop computing, they never really wanted to be, that's why they licensed DOS from Microsoft and developed OS/2 which became Windows NT with them. Their only serious attempt, OS/2 Warp, had to go head to head with Windows 3.0 which they actually funded, and lost.

The point is, IBM created the industry and is now mostly irrelevant though still huge.

>>It's also never too soon to be thinking far ahead. The features you see in modern operating systems were just gleams in their developer's eyes 10 years ago.<<

Thinking ahead is fine, but allocating resources is another thing. You need to first stop the bleeding now. You have to look at the entire picture, unlike 10 years ago when things were emerging from nothing, there are expectations now, as well as significant competition. You are assuming MS will release a fix/update and all will be fine. I do not feel comfortable making that assumption. The state of development of Modern UI is too poor for me to make that assumption right now. The extremely low quality of the core apps and all that is missing coming out of Microsoft in 2012/2013 leaves me unsure they have the ability to right this particular ship. I still can't grasp what went on inside the MS campus that allowed this to even happen, it's baffling.

>>Hell, Apple was developing the iPad loooong before it's debut in 2009.<<

I know, I owned a Newton and it, relative to the time, factoring in ethnocentrism, was more productive for me then, than my Surface RT is now. ;>

>>The features in Vista and 7 were in development long before development of those systems began.<<

Evolutionary, as with most things evolved. This is an attempted paradigm shift. In some ways MS is trying to put a square peg, in a round hole.

[franksm01]

I am moving to mac because of windows 8. win8 just crap.

no wonder PC sales are down, i will never buy a MS products. I was once a MS fan!

[+Warwagon MVC]

Where am I being negative? I've said nothing here I haven't said before.

EDIT: That gif is rather creepy...

I have a feeling that even if every living soul on earth called windows 8 a failure, you will call it a success.

[guru]

surprise!

Desktop was on the decline even before the mobile/tablet trend started

HP, Dell designs are boring. If anyone wants decent looking pc , Asus and Sony are the only options.

Win8 is confusing and downright scary for average consumers..

Windows 8 doesn't have the quality equivalent of Apps iMovie, Garageband etc

There aren't decent convertible pc designs under $800 out there that'll make consumers think before picking up an iPad, (and i havent even mentioned < $200 nexus,Kindles)

As far as consumer is concerned, he/she would have to be near stupid to buy a pc without a specific usecase (gamer, dev,student etc) and even then Laptops will have to compete with Macbooks

on the bright side,

Haswell 10W version and AMD's Temash, Windows Blue, reduce price surface pro

might kickstart pc(x86 + Win) sales again.

[Dot Matrix]

I have a feeling that even if every living soul on earth called windows 8 a failure, you will call it a success.

Windows 8 is not the cause of the declining PC market.

[The Laughing Man]

Windows 8 is not the cause of the declining PC market.

It is and it isn't at the same time.

[Torolol]

didn't theres news Lenovo said that they choose preinstall new computers with windows 7 instead of windows 8, and it helps their pc sales ?

so its not a stretch to say that Windows 8 might be detrimental for pc sales growth.

[Shannon]

I would say most people that have Windows 8 now probably just upgraded their existing Windows 7 machines. I think the problem is that unless you are doing something computationally intensive (ie. not in the majority of computer users), then your current computer is probably more powerful than you need. People no longer need to upgrade their PCs regularly, the technology has matured. Combined with the rise of mobile computing, that is why traditional PC sales are declining. The important thing to note is that PCs aren't actually going away, they just aren't being upgraded as often.

[Dot Matrix]

didn't theres news Lenovo said that they choose preinstall new computers with windows 7 instead of windows 8, and it helps their pc sales ?

so its not a stretch to say that Windows 8 might be detrimental for pc sales growth.

You left out a crucial word in there: Business computers. It's no secret businesses aren't going to upgrade right away, to offer Windows 7 is nothing concerning.

It is and it isn't at the same time.

I guess that means Windows 7 can share the blame too?

[ahhell]

Modern PCs (from the past 3 or so years) tend of have much longer lifespan than they used to. You don't need to buy new hardware to use current software.

That's a huge part in declining sales.

Not to mention all the other platforms that computer type stuff can be done on. That's a huge change in the past 5 years.

Blaming all this on Windows 8 is just asinine.

[tsupersonic]

I actually agree with this to a certain extent. Windows 8 is definitely not helping the situation - there is such a negative impression of Windows 8 by REGULAR consumers (not any of you on this forum). The switch to a market that's more focused on tablets/smartphones/mobile devices is apparent, but when Windows 7 came out, it was absolutely a big HIT.

[Eric Veteran]

Let's stick to the topic and not call out other members, eh?

[George P Global Moderator]

Again, doesn't IDC talk about "traditional" PCs in this report? My shiny new Samsung ativ smart PC isn't a "traditional" PC it's a tablet/hybrid PC. Does IDC count this or not? Or do the put it in the mobile category? If this dip is mostly on the back of big desktop PCs why is this a surprise when everyone is going for the new hybrids, tablets, and slates. None of those are traditional.

[f0rk_b0mb]

As much as I love Microsoft, I'm still calling Windows 8 the worst product of all time. I'd much rather use Windows ME. If Microsoft does not change their ways, or at the very least start listening to their users, they will suffer. Die hard tech savvy people will move somewhere different, and the average consumer will continue to buy fruity products. Why? Quote on quote from a friend: "Why would I want to buy a Microsoft tablet for a 1000 dollars when I can have a 600 dollar iPad?" It comes down to marketing. The consumer buys the iPad because it has a name brand on it, it is more afordible, and has a larger selection of apps.