Does Microsoft know that tablet success means PC sales destruction?

[vcfan]

Phones will replace PCs though, but that's still a ways out. In time our phones will be our computers. We'll drop them in a dock and they'll come up on a big screen with a keyboard and mouse and be every bit as powerful as the computers we have now.

 

the future is cloud powered computing.eventually there will be robust,fast and affordable infrastructure to support this.

[Draconian Guppy]

The problem is most consumers without teens going to school don't need those.

 

We are looking at PC sales here. As in Personal Computer. We are not looking at workstations or servers inside companies or schools.

 

In the consumer market lot of people don't actually really need a computer over a tablet. Most people here posting on the forum are pros. We use our personal computer to work. And most of us still upgrade it every 3 years or so. But we represent only a fraction of the consumer market.

 

Tablets wont kill the personal computer star. And the traditional desktop computer and laptop will remain strong inside companies and even schools. But saying the tablets/smart phones/smart TVs wont significantly affect the consumer market is kind of foolish imo.

True true, Good point.  One of my cousins says "Since my iPad and iPhone, I haven't used a PC for like over a year" But cause she's not "pro" as you put it.

But also, i'm not saying it won't affect consumer market, i'm saying, going as far as replace traditional PC is still a long way, imo 20+ years.

[AJerman]

the future is cloud powered computing.eventually there will be robust,fast and affordable infrastructure to support this.

Even if that was the case, it will still require a device to connect to it. If it were it could mean that phones would even sooner be able to take this task, but cloud will always work alongside and extend local computing. Local processing is MUCH MUCH faster for a lot of smaller tasks, and will continue to be even more so as processing power continues to increase in small affordable packages like the CPUs we have today. Cloud is only as useful for more intensive processing while we need extra power that our local machines may lack. Network latency will never allow cloud computing to completely replace local computing, and ever increasing computing power will make it pointless to send off to the cloud what your system can already do in the blink of an eye.

[HawkMan]

I now own 3 tablets, and absolutely never would consider replacing my PCs with them. Maybe if all you do is update your Facebook status it could replace it, but otherwise it won't ever happen.

 

Phones will replace PCs though, but that's still a ways out. In time our phones will be our computers. We'll drop them in a dock and they'll come up on a big screen with a keyboard and mouse and be every bit as powerful as the computers we have now. Perhaps around this time we'll see wireless touch displays that can connect to your Phoneputer and act like a tablet, but tablets themselves won't replace PCs ever.

 

I'm guessing those 3 tablets are not powerful windows tablets like the surface Pro. but more in the style of ios, android or RT ?

[Xilo]

You can't play PC games on a tablet.

You can't do effective content creation on a tablet.

You can't program on a tablet.

You can't multitask effectively on a tablet.

 

PC ain't going anywhere.

[seta-san]

tablets are toys for social media. that is all. if all you do is social media than a tablet will be fine for you. but if you need more power. if you need productivity or the exactness of a keyboard and mouse... a tablet will never work.

 

in the end i think that even tablets will be made obsolete or a niche market by smart phones.

[redfish]

In the consumer market lot of people don't actually really need a computer over a tablet. Most people here posting on the forum are pros. We use our personal computer to work. And most of us still upgrade it every 3 years or so. But we represent only a fraction of the consumer market.

Most people don't need a tablet over a computer, either. They don't necessarily need to carry anything around with them but their smart phone. They don't necessarily want to carry tablets around with them everywhere. Some here mention that users on these forums are techies, so need computers more than the average person. Sure, but I bet, being techies, they're also more likely to actually own tablets than the average person, too.

 

I think part of the assumption that tablet will be king is that tablets are friendlier to use... ok, but the younger the market becomes, the more consumers will be tech savvy. Young people use PCs for schoolwork, then don't want to give them up.

 

In the end, I'm thinking we'll see more hybrid devices, like Surface, but better done, more advanced.

[HawkMan]

You can't play PC games on a tablet.

You can't do effective content creation on a tablet.

You can't program on a tablet.

You can't multitask effectively on a tablet.

 

PC ain't going anywhere.

A tablet can be a PC

A tablet can be a PC

A tablet can be a PC

A tablet can be a PC

So, yeah you can.

[HawkMan]

tablets are toys for social media. that is all. if all you do is social media than a tablet will be fine for you. but if you need more power. if you need productivity or the exactness of a keyboard and mouse... a tablet will never work.

 

in the end i think that even tablets will be made obsolete or a niche market by smart phones.

Can it read mail ? Yes, can it surf the web? Yes, can it access their bank ? Yes.

That covers the use for 90% of computer users, for the rest a surface pro will do for most of them, leaving only the core PC gamers.

Toys? Not so much.

[seta-san]

A tablet can be a PC

A tablet can be a PC

A tablet can be a PC

A tablet can be a PC

So, yeah you can.

 

not really. a tablet can't run the same quality of software that a PC can... and neither can a laptop. the amount of energy would create massive heat problems and the battery size would make it too heavy to be a worthwhile tablet.

[seta-san]

Can it read mail ? Yes, can it surf the web? Yes, can it access their bank ? Yes.

That covers the use for 90% of computer users, for the rest a surface pro will do for most of them, leaving only the core PC gamers.

Toys? Not so much.

 

 

so can my wii. that doesn't mean video game consoles are going to overtake PCs. In the next five years i wouldn't doubt if your new refridgerator wouldn't be able to do these things. even non-smart phones today can do those basic things any more.

 

as i said. smart phones will beat out tablets for the same uses since neither are used for anything very serious.

[zhangm Supervisor]

No. There is a great deal of faulty analysis about how tablets can't replace real PCs because of this or that. That has basically nothing to do with how successful tablets can become.

 

Someone once decided to make a PC that could place phone calls and take pictures, and play a few games on a small screen. This PC can't do half of what a laptop can, and doesn't have a tenth the performance of a mid-range desktop. You can't play complicated games on it - its hardware is too weak and its input methods too clumsy. It's no good at all for any real work, but it quickly became popular because it does things that a laptop or desktop can't do. It's called an iPhone. It occupies different usage scenarios than desktops or laptops - arguably ones that didn't exist before the device itself existed. That's where tablets are going. The argument about whether they can match the performance of "real" PC counterparts is irrelevant. Tablets are a different form factor. The question is what usage scenarios will evolve thanks to the new hardware platform.

[HawkMan]

not really. a tablet can't run the same quality of software that a PC can... and neither can a laptop. the amount of energy would create massive heat problems and the battery size would make it too heavy to be a worthwhile tablet.

A surface pro will run the exact same apps your PC will. So stop talking BS.

[seta-san]

A surface pro will run the exact same apps your PC will. So stop talking BS.

 

 

yeah. and good luck playing a game like World of Warcraft, as a tablet. even if it can technically render it the touch screen interface isn't optimised for the game. if you get to attaching a keyboard and mouse your tablet becomes nothing by a laptop that you have to buy a keyboard/mouse for.

[spaceelf]

yeah. and good luck playing a game like World of Warcraft, as a tablet. even if it can technically render it the touch screen interface isn't optimised for the game. if you get to attaching a keyboard and mouse your tablet becomes nothing by a laptop that you have to buy a keyboard/mouse for.

so you're saying a tablet can be versatile enough to do what a PC can?  Gasp!  I think that's pretty much what he's saying too!

 

Back to being serious, the consoles will also take a chunk out of the PC market

 

MS has said it before, if they don't cannibalize their own products, someone else will.

[HawkMan]

yeah. and good luck playing a game like World of Warcraft, as a tablet. even if it can technically render it the touch screen interface isn't optimised for the game. if you get to attaching a keyboard and mouse your tablet becomes nothing by a laptop that you have to buy a keyboard/mouse for.

 

It becomes a laptop that I can also disconnect and use as a tablet, and with the surface pro use as a sketching and painting tool with a fully fledged Wacom digitizer. 

 

so as I said, a proper higher end tablet, is a laptop, light gaming machine, office machine, art tool, work tool and so much more all in one. 

 

btw, you have to buy a mouse for you laptop to. and the touch cover or type cover for the surface is pretty awesome. 

[AJerman]

I'm guessing those 3 tablets are not powerful windows tablets like the surface Pro. but more in the style of ios, android or RT ?

Of course it's not a Surface Pro, why would I want to use a Surface Pro? Because I like to spend way too much money on weak hardware just because it's in tablet form factor when I'd have to use a keyboard and mouse to be productive on it anyway? The Surface Pro is a good example of why tablets will never replace PCs. Don't get me wrong, the Surface Pro is a cool piece of hardware, but if it were ever to try to replace my PC, it'd require a real keyboard (not the touch type crap, remember, this is replacing my PC) and a mouse, and then at that point, I'd be lugging around more than if I'd just bought a laptop, and the laptop would have been cheaper. The portability doesn't really get much better than a laptop. Who carries their tablet with them everywhere they go? Now, who carries their phone everywhere they go? There you go. When phones have the power, they will replace PCs. Tablets will not.

 

And on top of it all, I wouldn't have to run Windows 8 on the laptop!

 

Don't confuse being ABLE to replace a PC with actually replacing PCs. Yes, if it fits you, a Surface Pro could replace YOUR PC, but it will not be the demise of PCs by any stretch.

[sc302 Veteran]

Just some food for thought, as I am also of the belief that tablets are not taking over anytime soon, however...

I work at a very large corporation. It is in the Top 100 of Fortune 500 companies.

The IT department is currently piloting a few different tablets in a few different divisions. The Surface, Lenevo's ThinkPad Tablet whose name is escaping me right now. And everyone right now in the sales force has iPads. Our IT department would love to replace those since we are a Windows based environment.

The best way to replace iPads? Find a Windows based tablet that can also replace users laptops as well, killing two birds with one stone so to speak.

So yeah, while home power users still very much have a need for a "traditional" desktop or laptop, a tablet may very well be sufficient enough in a corporate setting, and that is a huge market as many of you already know.

 

Really all it needs to do is MS Office for most corporate users. PPT especially. Not that many people in corporations are editing videos or opening Photoshop.

So this may not be that far fetched is all I am saying.

DL, we have been deploying the surface pro's instead of laptops and so far they are exactly we intended them to be, laptop replacements.  We dock them using a usb doc, so the users only have two plugs to plug in. This gives them video, mouse, keyboard, and lan.  The other plug is power.  Users either use it in mirror screen or extended, it depends on the user.  No one has complained and has welcomed the device over a laptop.

 

The entire package we give to our users, surface pro, 2 chargers (one for work, one for home or on the road), a type cover (which is a full button keyboard), a usb dock, a keyboard, a mouse, a monitor, two usb ethernet devices, and two patch cables (one for work  and one for on the road if/when needed).  The pro is more than enough for the majority of our users who mainly vpn in, and open office based applications, as well as web stuff. 

 

 

So I would say that the ability to replace the laptop is quite there, provided you get the right one.  We are a Microsoft and SAP shop.

[HawkMan]

Of course it's not a Surface Pro, why would I want to use a Surface Pro? Because I like to spend way too much money on weak hardware just because it's in tablet form factor when I'd have to use a keyboard and mouse to be productive on it anyway? The Surface Pro is a good example of why tablets will never replace PCs. Don't get me wrong, the Surface Pro is a cool piece of hardware, but if it were ever to try to replace my PC, it'd require a real keyboard (not the touch type crap, remember, this is replacing my PC) and a mouse, and then at that point, I'd be lugging around more than if I'd just bought a laptop, and the laptop would have been cheaper. The portability doesn't really get much better than a laptop. Who carries their tablet with them everywhere they go? Now, who carries their phone everywhere they go? There you go. When phones have the power, they will replace PCs. Tablets will not.

 

And on top of it all, I wouldn't have to run Windows 8 on the laptop!

 

Don't confuse being ABLE to replace a PC with actually replacing PCs. Yes, if it fits you, a Surface Pro could replace YOUR PC, but it will not be the demise of PCs by any stretch.

 

 

So instead of buying ONe tablet that you could use, and it would also be able to replace or mostly replace your possible laptop, you instead chose to buy THREE useless Tablets you DON'T use...

 

your logic is impeccable. 

 

and how is the Surface pro weak ? it has a powerful CPU, more than enough ram, it's GPU is a bit on the weak side, IF you're gaming, but more than enough for anything else. It also can be equipped with the type cover, not just the "touch crap". add in the super dine wedge mouse and you can carry it everywhere.

 

as for who carries their tablets everywhere. a LOT of people, a lot more cary their laptops with them everywhere to, this replaces the bigger laptop for most of them. 

[Growled Member]

A tablet is a PC. It's a small mini-computer. It's personal. It's not a desktop, though. But you can do almost anything a desktop will do even now, and in the long term I see them surpassing desktops.

[AJerman]

So instead of buying ONe tablet that you could use, and it would also be able to replace or mostly replace your possible laptop, you instead chose to buy THREE useless Tablets you DON'T use...

 

your logic is impeccable. 

 

and how is the Surface pro weak ? it has a powerful CPU, more than enough ram, it's GPU is a bit on the weak side, IF you're gaming, but more than enough for anything else. It also can be equipped with the type cover, not just the "touch crap". add in the super dine wedge mouse and you can carry it everywhere.

 

as for who carries their tablets everywhere. a LOT of people, a lot more cary their laptops with them everywhere to, this replaces the bigger laptop for most of them. 

One iPad 2 that I purchased when it was released, one Blackberry Playbook that I got for free as a developer, and one Nexus 7 that I bought last Friday to install as the head unit in my car. Let me worry about my logic rather than you making incorrect assumptions. Also, where in my post did I say that I don't use them so emphatically that you had to redundantly say that I don't?

 

I'm not sure how you want me to explain to you that the Surface Pro is weak. The CPU is far from powerful. It competes with netbooks and low end laptops/ultrabooks. The memory is lacking. The GPU is lacking for anything that requires GPU, not just gaming. Are you saying it's fast for a tablet? Because I don't disagree with you there, but you were arguing that it's a PC killer. Not just netbook killer, not just laptop killer, but PC KILLER as a whole! Not everyone just uses their computer to update their Facebook status and read some emails. A Surface Pro would explode if I even tried to run Lightroom and do some photo editing. The CPU can't handle it. There isn't close to enough RAM (I had 4 GB of RAM in my computer 10 years ago!). And that's just my spare time play on my computer. For work I usually end up multitasking enough to make 8GB of RAM cry, let alone 4GB. Trust me, I run a laptop right now from work with very similar specs and I absolutely abuse it. My desktop at home is only an i3 and is definitely lacking power for my big screen stuff (which is why I'm planning a new build), and it's much faster than a Surface Pro. And on top of all of this, the screen is tiny, storage is very limited, expansion is limited, and the upgradability is zero.

 

Oh, and the type cover? Not a whole lot better than the touch cover. It's not even at a laptop keyboard level, and that's setting the bar low if you are actually doing work. A far better argument would be that you could pair a bluetooth keyboard to it easily, but then you're carrying around an extra keyboard wherever you go, which puts you back to the type keyboard. Let's leave that one because the type keyboard, while far from PC replacement quality, is the least of the Surface Pro's problems with the alternatives possible.

 

And I'm curious about these people you know that carry their tablets around. I can't say I've ever seen any. Do they use a bag to carry it? A bag is a bit excessive for a tablet, but then, carrying it around in your hand walking down the street would probably be even more ridiculous. At that point I might as well have carried a laptop with twice as much power and basically no more bulk since it'll fit in about the same size bag that my Surface Pro + keyboard + mouse + power cord would fit in.

 

So yes, compared to all the other tablets that cost half or a quarter of the price, the Surface Pro is very powerful. Compared to laptops that cost the same price, it's probably half as powerful. And compared to a desktop at the same price, it's not even close. If you are light computer user and the Surface Pro can handle everything you want to do, and you're willing to pay the premium that it costs, then great, get a Surface Pro. But you're out of your damn mind if you think it's going to replace the PC market.

[HawkMan]

The surface pro would run Lightroom just fine, photoshop just fine. It would probably struggle with some of my 3dsmax scenes, but that's workstation stuff anyway, but it could load them and could do woo. Renders of them, and using adaptive degradation(bounding box) and hiding unnecessary stuff, it would do a nice enough job. But hey, I managed my 3d stuff on my old 486 though I guess I shouldn't count the crap I did until I had my PII.

As for carrying, you wouldn't need to carry all that, just the surface pro. The mouse and stuff you have and home and/or work.

[PGHammer]

The surface pro would run Lightroom just fine, photoshop just fine. It would probably struggle with some of my 3dsmax scenes, but that's workstation stuff anyway, but it could load them and could do woo. Renders of them, and using adaptive degradation(bounding box) and hiding unnecessary stuff, it would do a nice enough job. But hey, I managed my 3d stuff on my old 486 though I guess I shouldn't count the crap I did until I had my PII.

As for carrying, you wouldn't need to carry all that, just the surface pro. The mouse and stuff you have and home and/or work.

And a Surface Pro can certainly run AutoCAD, considering my older Q6600-driven desktop with a three-years-dead nVidia GTX550 Ti certainly can.

 

Those saying that a tablet can't replace a PC are all various forms of "outlier" users - they are no more the average computer user than I am.  They either don't realize that they are outliers (denial) or they are deliberately blowing smoke.  Anybody that uses ANY CAD program - and especially AutoCAD - is not an average computer user, by any stretch of the imagination,  That same rubric applies to programmers or anyone that does ANY sort of development - even if you're talking Windows Phone or Android IDE development, let alone iOS development, Windows development (Win32 or Win64, that is), etc.

 

One thing that has changed is that the entry bar to outlier-dom has dropped significantly - and it has not a thing to do with tablets, let alone netbooks.  Look at the average requirements for Visual Studio 2012 Professional in terms of hardware, and compare them with the specs of merely netbooks and notebooks of Windows 7's launch time.  In point of fact, gaming has higher hardware requirements than most IDEs, if not darn near every IDE available today, regardless of cost/price.  (I'm talking SimCity 2013 - not BF3, let alone the upcoming BF4 beta.) Civilization V can run on a Surface Pro - the current one - today, along with *all* the DLC for it - that would therefore imply that any game with similar hardware requirements can also run on the same hardware.  While you can't run high-end games on a Surface Pro, mainstream gaming is certainly possible - if you are implying otherwise, then you really ARE in denial.