Noveed Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 Gamespot report Piper Jaffray analysts Anthony Gikas and Stephanie Wissink are projecting continued growth for the industry, a new hard-drive-equipped PSP next year, Microsoft's Xbox 360 jumping out to an early lead in the console wars, and a less-than-revolutionary showing for the Revolution. Starting with the home hardware, Gikas and Wissink released their sales projections for each system over the next three years. Through 2008, Gikas and Wissink expect Microsoft to sell 19.6 million Xbox 360 units, with the PlayStation 3 and Revolution trailing at 15.5 million and 5 million units, respectively. The estimates for both Sony and Nintendo's consoles are based on late 2006 releases for the systems. But while the PS3 is expected to accelerate quickly and lead all systems with 8.5 million units sold in 2008, the ambitious Revolution is listed as starting slow (500,000 units sold in 2006), and lagging behind its competition with 2 million and 3 million systems moved in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Gikas and Wissink forecast a modest net increase in console sales, partly due to market cannibalization as the handheld sector catches fire. The analysts are projecting a 45 percent increase in handheld hardware sales for the next cycle (which runs through 2011). The combined Game Boy line (including the DS) is projected to have a banner 2005 with a whopping 7.5 million units sold compared to the PSP's projected 3.8 million, but the next three years will see Sony and Nintendo running neck and neck in the handheld business. Gikas and Wissink have the PSP and Game Boy lines both posting annual sales for 2006, 2007, and 2008 of 5.5 million, 5 million, and 6 million. One of the most interesting aspects of the pair's handheld projections is that the report mentions they're expecting Sony o launch the next generation of its PSP (including an audio/video hard-drive) in mid-2006. News Source:Gamespot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 I agree, The price of the PS3 will put a lot of casual gamers off the console - possibly towards the xbox core system (Which is still a good deal) and easily upgradable in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzei Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 I agree, The price of the PS3 will put a lot of casual gamers off the console - possibly towards the xbox core system (Which is still a good deal) and easily upgradable in the future. 586599294[/snapback] We don't even know the price of the PS3 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeSoul Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 also Koei has said publicly 2 days ago that they will shift from PS3 to Xbox 360 if the development cost of PS3 is too high compared to Xbox 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzei Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 also Koei has said publicly 2 days ago that they will shift from PS3 to Xbox 360 if the development cost of PS3 is too high compared to Xbox 360 586599309[/snapback] Got any source on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeSoul Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 Got any source on that? 586599325[/snapback] Recently, Koei CEO Keiko Erikawa commented that her company would consider shifting to another platform if PS3 development proves too expensive. http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/09/28/news_6134592.html and given that Koei would be considering a HD game if its expensive for development that means XBox 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 The playstation 3 will be more expensive than the xbox 360 no doubt about that. The fact that sony is trying to win the next format war by including the new blu-ray drives with the console is nonsense. This new technology is expensive and is not needed in a games console. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeSoul Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 if a 25 GB disc costs the developer 25$, how much do you think the games will cost? 80$?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noveed Posted September 30, 2005 Author Share Posted September 30, 2005 i see sony making a huge loss on the PS3 to begin with, maybe when blu-ray becomes more afordable and posssibly if it becomes the industry standard then i reckon the PS3 will do better :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brw2KX Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 (edited) if a 25 GB disc costs the developer 25$, how much do you think the games will cost? 80$?? 586599484[/snapback] that's a scary thought. BDA claims it will have 50 gb of capacity at launch, I wonder if that would drive the price up even more? :wacko: Edited September 30, 2005 by Brw2KX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankee lion Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 (edited) if a 25 GB disc costs the developer 25$, how much do you think the games will cost? 80$?? 586599484[/snapback] Where did you get a $25 figure? EDIT: You know, http://www.blu-raydisc.com/assets/download...50525-12993.pdf , there it says they're pretty close to getting DVD making costs and they are close to getting there. Edited September 30, 2005 by Surrieall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing-Man Posted September 30, 2005 Share Posted September 30, 2005 Did Sony even say all their games at the start be on BDs? They could just use DVDs initially till the cost goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noveed Posted September 30, 2005 Author Share Posted September 30, 2005 Did Sony even say all their games at the start be on BDs? They could just use DVDs initially till the cost goes down. 586601398[/snapback] Bang on, Blu-Ray may only be for movies.... who knows, but in reality.... Killzone, MGS4 will need more than any ordinary dual layer DVD can offer. and PS3 has other excess baggage which drives the price up. Some of it like the router functions have been taken out, i wonder how much more it will be thinned out and how many more "promises" will be broken by sony. None the less i will be picking up a PS3 at launch whenever that is :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Carlton Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 well it's expected that the PS3 will have less features than they said at the beggining, unless they make some media centre components, like a tv browser and streaming media player standard. For the PS2, they had usb, firewire, and PCMCIA in the specs....but no practical use for them...so they took them out, but they also added things in the future (better dvd drives that support -+rw disks, remote standard, network builtin) and then made the console the size of a frickin DVD case. I think Sony has listened to people's complaints and suggestions on the PS2 and actually eliminated them for the most part, where MS has not made any changes to the XBOX since launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtreme $niper Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 Judging by recent events, anything can happen at this point. Some developers are cancelling games (Condemned) for the PS3, and others are saying they much prefer developing for 360 than for PS3. I don't think that analysts can really be too certain right now, and they are just getting paid to give wild guesses. The major market for PS3 will be Japan, obviously. I don't see it selling as well as 360 in America this time around, though. And the fact that a lot of RPGs are coming for 360 too just throws away most of the excuses people have as to why PS3 is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing-Man Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 (edited) And the fact that a lot of RPGs are coming for 360 too just throws away most of the excuses people have as to why PS3 is better. 586601843[/snapback] Considering the Xbox had like zero JRPGs and the Playstation 2 has like 10 a month, there is nothing to suggest that is going to change for the Xbox360. If the Xbox360 does not sell well in Japan there is no reason why Japanese developers would make JRPGs for it. Edited October 1, 2005 by jmole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtreme $niper Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 Right, but you have to remember that Microsoft is trying their damnest to get into the Japanese market this time around. There WILL be RPGs on the 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing-Man Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 Right, but you have to remember that Microsoft is trying their damnest to get into the Japanese market this time around. There WILL be RPGs on the 360. 586602408[/snapback] If they don't have Final Fantasy (The series, not MMORPG), Dragon Warrior, or Pokemon they are pretty much doomed in Japan. Those were like all the top selling games in Japan since 2000 and hardware sales also seem to reflect that due to these games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marduk Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 Who are these people spitting out these numbers anyway? Do they know anything about the market and how people are going to react after all the hype to graphically amazing but depth lacking games of most of these systems? I think the article is all just rubbish and crap put out by some guy that love the 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gfunk4life Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 I agree, The price of the PS3 will put a lot of casual gamers off the console - possibly towards the xbox core system (Which is still a good deal) and easily upgradable in the future. if things look bad for sony they will drop the price of the PS3. i got all my consoles late. Considering the Xbox had like zero JRPGs and the Playstation 2 has like 10 a month, there is nothing to suggest that is going to change for the Xbox360. If the Xbox360 does not sell well in Japan there is no reason why Japanese developers would make JRPGs for it. its all about money and MS can pay so Japanese game makers make games for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iconboy Posted October 1, 2005 Share Posted October 1, 2005 its too early for predictions like this, although i think the xbox 360 is on a great track to really do well this console war. Sony's biggest hurdle is the later launch, believe me, the PS3 will sell, IT WILL SELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firen Posted October 2, 2005 Share Posted October 2, 2005 A conflicting article... Gamers can barely predict what will happen within the industry between today and tomorrow, let alone sound respectable and forecasting two years from. That's the job of analysts at Piper Jaffray, though, and their latest release includes such whoppers as: PlayStation 3 leading in hardware sales and a new PSP model next year.Piper Jaffray says by 2008, PlayStation 3 will have grabbed 45-50% of the hardware market, with Xbox 360 barely trailing at 35-40% and Nintendo dropping to a minority share of 15%. In fact, they predict Revolution adoption to move at an almost snail's pace, with only half a million units next year, two in 2007 and three in 2008. The race between Sony and Microsoft, however, will far more competitive, but Piper Jaffray eventually predicts PlayStation 3 will pull ahead of the pack. In the end, though, the competition between the three systems will produce an impressive 30% total increase in consumer purchases for videogame systems. Almost more interesting, however, is the speculation Sony will release a "next-generation PSP" with an audio/video hard-drive next summer. A remodled version of the PSP with two analog sticks would be fantastic, but Sony purposely cutting into the lucrative sales of memory sticks doesn't really jive with a philosophy based on the bottom line. They're the ones paid to be analysts, though, not me, so we'll see how Piper Jaffray's predictions roll out over the next few years. 1up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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