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[NFL] No. 1 pick breakdown


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If Houston wins, The Louisiana/San Antonio Saints will almost certainly get the #1 overall pick.

If San Francisco wins, Houston would get the #1 pick.

Here's an article by Chris Harring of nfldraftblitz.com:

First listed are each team, and their record obviously; followed by their schedule this season along with each team’s record. Those records are combined into their Strength of Schedule, which is determined by dividing the wins by the number of games they’ve played. Because each team will finish with 256 games against, we can just use the number of wins to determine the pick order. After that is the games that matter in Week 17 for each team, a star next to a team’s name means a win by that squad will add a win to the wins against; two stars means they’re in division, and therefore add 2 wins (because they appear twice on the schedule). The range is, mathematically, the least to max amount of wins that can be added to their SOS, in cases where they’ve played both teams, only one can win, therefore only one point can be added. Best case is what the best actual outcome would be for the teams in Week 17.

Houston 2-13

Buffalo 5-10

Pittsburgh 10-5

Cincinnati 11-4

Tennessee 4-11

Seattle 13-2

Indianapolis 13-2

Cleveland 5-10

Jacksonville 11-4

Indianapolis 13-2

Kansas City 9-6

St. Louis 5-10

Baltimore 6-9

Tennessee 4-11

Arizona 5-10

Jacksonville 11-4

San Francisco 3-12

Present wins against: 128/240

Arizona* at Indianapolis**

Baltimore* at Cleveland*

Buffalo* at N.Y. Jets

Cincinnati* at Kansas City*

Detroit at Pittsburgh*

Seattle* at Green Bay

Houston at San Francisco*

Tennessee** at Jacksonville**

St. Louis* at Dallas

Range: 5-11/16

best case:

Arz > Ind

Nyj > Buf

Det > Pit

GB > Sea

Dal > Stl

SF > Hou

= 6 pts

New Orleans 3-12

Carolina 10-5

NJ Giants 10-5

Minnesota 8-7

Buffalo 5-10

Green Bay 3-12

Atlanta 8-7

St. Louis 5-10

Miami 8-7

Chicago 11-4

New England 10-5

NJ Jets 3-12

Tampa Bay 10-5

Atlanta 8-7

Carolina 10-5

Detroit 5-10

Tampa Bay 10-5

Present wins against: 124/240

N.Y. Giants* at Oakland

Buffalo* at N.Y. Jets*

Carolina** at Atlanta**

Detroit* at Pittsburgh

Miami* at New England*

New Orleans at Tampa Bay**

Seattle at Green Bay*

Chicago* at Minnesota*

St. Louis* at Dallas

Range: 5-11/16

best case:

Oak > Nyg

Pit > Det

Sea > GB

Dal > Stl

TB > NO

= 7 pts

NJ Jets 3-12

Kansas City 9-6

Miami 8-7

Jacksonville 11-4

Baltimore 6-9

Tampa Bay 10-5

Buffalo 5-10

Atlanta 8-7

San Diego 9-6

Carolina 10-5

Denver 12-3

New Orleans 3-12

New England 10-5

Oakland 4-11

Miami 8-7

New England 10-5

Buffalo 5-10

Present wins against: 128/240

Denver* at San Diego*

N.Y. Giants at Oakland*

Baltimore* at Cleveland

Buffalo** at N.Y. Jets

Carolina* at Atlanta*

Cincinnati at Kansas City*

Miami** at New England**

New Orleans* at Tampa Bay*

Tennessee at Jacksonville*

Range: 5-11/16

Best case:

Ten > Jax

Cin > KC

Nyg > Oak

Cle > Bal

Buf > Nyj

= 7 pts

Green Bay 3-12

Detroit 5-10

Cleveland 5-10

Tampa Bay 10-5

Carolina 10-5

New Orleans 3-12

Minnesota 8-7

Cincinnati 11-4

Pittsburgh 10-5

Atlanta 8-7

Minnesota 8-7

Philadelphia 6-9

Chicago 11-4

Detroit 5-10

Baltimore 6-9

Chicago 11-4

Seattle 13-2

Present wins against: 130/240

Baltimore* at Cleveland*

Carolina* at Atlanta*

Cincinnati* at Kansas City

Detroit** at Pittsburgh*

New Orleans* at Tampa Bay*

Seattle* at Green Bay

Chicago** at Minnesota**

Washington at Philadelphia*

Range: 6-10/16

best case:

KC > Cin

Pit > Det

Was > Phi

GB > Sea

= 7 pts

San Francisco 3-12

St. Louis 5-10

Philadelphia 6-9

Dallas 9-6

Arizona 5-10

Indianapolis 13-2

Washington 9-6

Tampa Bay 10-5

NY Giants 10-5

Chicago 11-4

Seattle 13-2

Tennessee 4-11

Arizona 5-10

Seattle 13-2

Jacksonville 11-4

St. Louis 5-10

Houston 2-13

Present wins against: 131/240

N.Y. Giants* at Oakland

Arizona** at Indianapolis*

New Orleans at Tampa Bay*

Seattle** at Green Bay

Houston* at San Francisco

Tennessee* at Jacksonville*

Chicago* at Minnesota

Washington* at Philadelphia*

St. Louis** at Dallas*

Range: 4-12/16

best case:

Oak > Nyg

Ind > Arz

NO > TB

GB > Sea

Min > Chi

Dal > Stl

Hou > SF

= 5 pts

Edited by yisman
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Who the hell are the San Antonio Saints?

The Louisiana/San Antonio Saints play in the NFC South. The New Jersey Jets play in the AFC East. The New Jersey Giants play in the NFC East. :)

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The Louisiana/San Antonio Saints play in the NFC South. The New Jersey Jets play in the AFC East. The New Jersey Giants play in the NFC East. :)

hmm... I thought they were the New Orleans Saints.

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hmm... I thought they were the New Orleans Saints.

They will probably stay that way too, the NFL doesn't want them going to San Antonio for good.

Something to think about though -----> IF New Orleans were to have the #1 pick would they draft Matt Leinart?

I think so.

They already have McAllister, who is pretty good. Brooks was benched for the rest of the season because he personally told Paul Taglia-- (however you spell it) to !@#$ off and has said he does not want to play for the Saints anymore. Anyway, I hope the Saints get Leinart ----> partially because I can't stand Leinart and I think it would be so funny if he were with such a worthless franchise (do you think any other franchise would have practiced in the parking lot while girls volleyball was going on in their makeshift practice facility) and... I am a Texan for Bush!!!!!!!

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Yes, if the Saints were to get the #1 pick, I believe they would draft Matt Leinart or trade down.

The reason why I don't call them the New Orleans Saints is because they don't play their games in New Orleans. Next season, it is possible they might play a few games in the Superdome.

The Saints drafting Leinart could grease the skids for a move to LA, though.

They are the New Orleans Saints. They haven't officialy moved or even had a change of name yet.

You know, most people call the Jets and Giants "New York"

They don't play in New York, though. I believe in accuracy. When I state the name of a team, I state the city/state where the team plays, first. Calling them the "New Orleans Saints" is inaccurate. They neither practice nor play in New Orleans.

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They neither practice nor play in New Orleans.

They used to play in New Orleans :laugh:

Their practice facility is in Metarie, LA (a New Orleans suburb for those who don't know).

Last I heard they will be back there next year (for practicing only), their facility was not damaged or had very little damage.

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Yep. Tom Benson actually lied about the practice facility, because he wants to move the team to San Antonio. The practice facility suffered minimal damage (it was used as a base for relief efforts at one point).

The Superdome suffered extensive damage, but experts who analyzed it said it could definitely be ready for next season.

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First off, I am kind-of new here, (been lurking for years,) so greetings to everyone!

Here is my gripe with the NFL draft: The #1 pick reguardless of team, is a gamble pick. A few #1 picks have been worth the pick but the majority have been duds. A short list of the great picks, say in the past decade, have been: Orlando Pace, Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. Now, a extensive list of duds Ki-Jana Carter, Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, David Carr, and Eli Manning (my opinion).

My opinion of the daft up-in-coming is if Reggie Bush does come out Early he will be drafted #1 by the TEXANS but I have a gut-feeling he will become another in my list of duds. Yes, he is the rebirth of Gale Sayers but Sayers only had only 5 great NFL seasons before in 1968 a knee injury took his thunder. I think it's only going to take a few hits from the Ray Lewis' and Roy Williams' to bring Reggie Bush to Earth. If Bush stays healthy he will indeed break all sorts of records but I just can't see him surviving any longer then what Sayers did.

If Bush decides to stay for his Senior year, I believe Matt Lineart will be seclected 1st by the TEXANS. I do feel this is a febel pick though becuase David Carr hasn't really had his chance to shine but, really, I believe 3 years is long enough. I do believe the TEXANS don't want to give up Carr but they can't just give up Lineart to another team. I do seeLineart being more productive than Reggie Bush in say the next 10 years overall, so if Bush decides to stay I think the TEXANS win in this draft.

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First off, I am kind-of new here, (been lurking for years,) so greetings to everyone!

Here is my gripe with the NFL draft: The #1 pick reguardless of team, is a gamble pick. A few #1 picks have been worth the pick but the majority have been duds. A short list of the great picks, say in the past decade, have been: Orlando Pace, Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. Now, a extensive list of duds Ki-Jana Carter, Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, David Carr, and Eli Manning (my opinion).

Michael Vick is more of a dud than David Carr or Eli Manning.

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Michael Vick is more of a dud than David Carr or Eli Manning.

I am right with you there...

I don't think the Texans will draft Leinart, nor will they get rid of David Carr -> I saw an article on NFL.com that said David called all the plays in the 1st half of the Cardinalls game (their best offesnsive showing in any half this year, by far) and the coaches took over in the 2nd half (when they stunk up the joint).

Talk radio in Houston is saying keep David and draft Reggie, which I think is what will happen.

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Yes, if the Saints were to get the #1 pick, I believe they would draft Matt Leinart or trade down.

The reason why I don't call them the New Orleans Saints is because they don't play their games in New Orleans. Next season, it is possible they might play a few games in the Superdome.

The Saints drafting Leinart could grease the skids for a move to LA, though.

You know, most people call the Jets and Giants "New York"

They don't play in New York, though. I believe in accuracy. When I state the name of a team, I state the city/state where the team plays, first. Calling them the "New Orleans Saints" is inaccurate. They neither practice nor play in New Orleans.

Way OT...

Teams aren't named for the city they play in. Tampa Bay Bucs are another example. So calling them by the city they play in would be innacurate. The city in the name (New York Giants, etc) is just part of the name, not necessarily their home. What is your name for the 'Dallas Cowboys'?

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Yeah, we don't want another 'Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, United States, World" type deal. I think they should just call them the Anaheim Angels like it alwas was.

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My point about this is that the Saints haven't even been in the same state for most of their home games.

I guess it would be the Arlington Cowboys. But many teams do not play in the exact same city that they're named. But they're representing that city, and they're always in the same state (with the notable exception of 3 or 4 NFL teams).

Yeah, we don't want another 'Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, United States, World" type deal. I think they should just call them the Anaheim Angels like it alwas was.

I call them the Anaheim Angels. Others prefer the California Angels.

The guy who bought the Angels a year or two ago (Arte Moreno) isn't terribly bright, and he thought renaming the team would steal some of the LA fans from the Dodgers.

If he had brains or knew anything about languages, he would've realized that he renamed the team "The the Angels Angels of Anaheim"

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Michael Vick is more of a dud than David Carr or Eli Manning.

Carr nor Manning have been to a Conference Championship game. Vick just needs to realize he in no Marino. Also, when Vick came into the league most defenses had to acquire a special package just to contain him.

David Carr is one of them, "Good players on a bad team," if the Texans do get Bush I just hope they fix their offensive line cuase even with Bush they'll still be horrible.

Eli Manning is way too unpredicatable and his whole draft day dramafest really turned me off. Eli is not Peyton and never will be. He is the Bill Ripken of the NFL.

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My point about this is that the Saints haven't even been in the same state for most of their home games.

I guess it would be the Arlington Cowboys. But many teams do not play in the exact same city that they're named. But they're representing that city, and they're always in the same state (with the notable exception of 3 or 4 NFL teams).

I call them the Anaheim Angels. Others prefer the California Angels.

The guy who bought the Angels a year or two ago (Arte Moreno) isn't terribly bright, and he thought renaming the team would steal some of the LA fans from the Dodgers.

If he had brains or knew anything about languages, he would've realized that he renamed the team "The the Angels Angels of Anaheim"

Irvine Cowboys actually. Even though the Saints haven't played in New Orleans this year, they are still the New Orleans Saints, and will be unless the team is permanently moved elsewhere.

Anyway...back on topic :)

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Carr nor Manning have been to a Conference Championship game.

WTF? Is the QB the only player on the field? Carr has had a terrible supporting cast, while Vick has been supported by a strong running game and a strong defense.

This is Manning's first full season as a starter!

That's a ridiculous comparison. This is Vick's 5th season in the league.

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WTF? Is the QB the only player on the field? Carr has had a terrible supporting cast, while Vick has been supported by a strong running game and a strong defense.

This is Manning's first full season as a starter!

That's a ridiculous comparison. This is Vick's 5th season in the league.

Yeah, Carr has shown glimpses of goodness, but with that terrible offensive line, he can't do squat. Vick just can't pass, he should be a running back.

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Manning has been very up and down this season. Not a good year overall. But it's his first full year starting and his 2nd year in the league overall!

I thought it was a bad move when the Giants gave up all those picks to get Manning (4th overall, a 3rd and a 5th rounder, and like the 12th overall pick the next season), but I'm not going to write him off yet. Why the heck would anyone write him off?

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Manning has been very up and down this season. Not a good year overall. But it's his first full year starting and his 2nd year in the league overall!

I thought it was a bad move when the Giants gave up all those picks to get Manning (4th overall, a 3rd and a 5th rounder, and like the 12th overall pick the next season), but I'm not going to write him off yet. Why the heck would anyone write him off?

Reason #1: picture the Giants without Tiki.

Reason #2: no Tiki equals more of Eli's world famous, eyes closed, passes directly to other team.

Reason #3: I'm biased when it comes to Eli... when he was in college I was a huge fan becuase I believed he looked better in college than what Peyton did. The whole "Draft Day Dramafest" really annoied me and it was great to see the chargers get some sweet, sweet vindication when Drew Brees led them to the playoffs.

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