Bill Gates: TV As We Know it, Obsolete in 10 years


Recommended Posts

Books will never go, especially since everyone nowadays thinks they're a writer.

I'd hate to see books be put to a digital medium. For one, I can't STAND reading eBooks or any of the sort online. The only thing I read online are short articles and forums. There's way too much stress for the eyes to be staring at lit-up screen all day. Not to mention that you can't lay down/relax with it (unless you've got a laptop but still). Now, if there was a handheld device, it'd still be the same with a screen. Hell, I get tired of looking at my cell phone menus. :\

Besides, it wouldn't be the same with a regular book. Books don't need batteries. I'd HATE to have to charge my reading device. Books are meant for the rainy days, relax time, or whatever. Hell, they're my only escape from politics and the digital world.

Yeah but like I said the tech isnt necessarily there but one day it will be. The screen doesnt have to burn your eyes. Also again like I said one day the screen will be ALOT smaller than books are today, you will be able to lie down with it. Im not talking laptops here, I'm talking a screen the size of a piece of paper thats a cm thick max and doesnt have a keyboard. Basically a much thinner tablet pc.

In regards to everyone thinking they are an author then allowing ppl to publish books themselves online bypassing the publisher altogether only helps new authors start up.

Lastly someone mentioned power going out. If power goes out at night theres alot more issues reading from a book than there would be something powered by batteries.

I still havent seen a convincing arguement as to why books should remain. With the way technology is progressing I cant see how books wont eventually be a thing of the past. They are less portable, can be easily destroyed, cant be easily attained (compared to a download), would be larger, deteroriate rapidly with time, self publishing is less of an option the list goes on and on.

Furthermore if books were electronic they could incoprorate facilities foir the handycapped such as the ability to resize fonts, have the book read itself ect ect. The advantages are many and the disadvantages so far few (and I havent see a single one listed here besides battery length and even that liekly wouldnt be an issue when the time actually comes in a decade or three from now)

Theres no real reason as to why youd have to pay to read either. Its not like you have to for books now days and I'm sure systems could be setup to facilitate temporary licenses aka virtual libraries if that was what was deemed appropriate.

Will this be as accurate as when he predicted the lack of relevance of the internet?

I think books wont go anywhere as long as we have resources to make paper from. Sure, alternatives will apear (like epaper) and some will get used to them, but it'll be a bit like buying through the internet: maybe it's more convenient, but most people still prefer to go to stores and check the actual goods.

Prove it. From what I have read, sales of Windows servers are growing much faster than Linux servers.

Sales != Deployments.

Most companies that I know (and I've worked with some rather large corporations in my time) deploy their own Linux servers (And BSD) by buying the hardware and having their in-house (outsourced) administrators deploy the operating system without it showing on the charts.

But this is off topic for this discussion in the first place and doesn't belong here.

intreasting... HD is the way to go now a days. I wonder if there will be a cheeper altertive for those who can't afford a $500-$700 TV. Perhaps offer them "todays" digital at a low price?

Im pretty sure in the USA when they make the switch to digital. That if you dont have a digital tv, then the goverment will give you support to either buy a new one or a box so you can watch the digital signals on your old TV's. But anyways i dont think you are allowed to make TV's anymore that cant accept a digital signal, at least in the USA.

Lastly someone mentioned power going out. If power goes out at night theres alot more issues reading from a book than there would be something powered by batteries.

Batteries don't last forever. Unless some miracle battery is made in the future, I'd sooner run out of battery power on a digital book reading gadget, than a torch.

Another point is the "cosyness appeal". Ask people which they'd rather take to bed with them at night to read... a book or a sheet of plastic.

On a sidenote in relevance to something mentioned earlier, I hate those electronic manuals for games. Their fine, until you want to look something up in-game. You have to either tab out and struggle with trying to run Adobe Reader at the same time as the game, or you have to quit. While if it is a printed manual, you just pause the game while you look.

The TV as we know it will NOT become obsolete any time soon.

No matter how much TV technology advances, people will always want to come home, sit and watch. The way we choose our programming, and our content style might change, but as long as the couch is not obsolete, the TV stays.

Prove it. From what I have read, sales of Windows servers are growing much faster than Linux servers.
Google IDG and Gartner reports yourself. Linux has been doing double-digit growth for quite some time (just dropped to single digits very recently).

Here is a link (in case you don't want to google yourself) from last year: http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/60035

Just curious where this "from what I read" reference you have is from? Where did you read that? :ermm:

Im pretty sure in the USA when they make the switch to digital. That if you dont have a digital tv, then the goverment will give you support to either buy a new one or a box so you can watch the digital signals on your old TV's. But anyways i dont think you are allowed to make TV's anymore that cant accept a digital signal, at least in the USA.

There are talks of government subsidization, though nothing is set in stone. As for legal matters, any set 27" and up that includes an NTSC tuner is now required to have an ATSC one, as well.

TV networks will become more youtube-ish where instead of packages, you subscribe to the shows you want. The shows will then be avaible to you through whatever medium you choose such as cell-phones or ipods. The tv is a seperate entity currently from internet which may not be the case in the future. The tv /pc monitor will be merged into one where you can watch a show, click on the screen and in PIP you could see more info on a product placement, or pehaps an actor, etc... All you have to do is look at the various technologies required. MP3 players are doing to cds what cds did to tapes and ecords, which they did to 8-tracks. There was a time not so long ago that people couldn't share pictures, documents, etc with everyone in the world.

Books will never go away because people like the tactile sensation of turning pages, although books might become a premium item, similar to a collector's edition of a DVD, with the regular version being digital.

As for televisions, it's possible that there might be an integrated push towards a new type of television. I think that as more and more people buy larger televisions (42" and up), that we'll eventually have one or two large, theater-esque televisions at home, and smaller, portable devices to take with us on the go. We'll be able to wirelessly download shows to our portable devices and either watch them on there or dock it at home with the big screen and watch it on there. Furthermore, the docking device will double as a DVR and allow you to sync your portable device with it, taking recorded shows on the go as well.

Anyway if we do replace television lets give all of our old TVs to countries with violence problems. People will be too stuck to the tube to do anything violent then.

You're forgetting that television and video games are the cause behind why people go killing on murder sprees, etc. :rolleyes:

So what he mean is that in 10 years we'll all be using monitors instead of tvs?

:blink:

:) I think tv will still be around in 10 years, we'd still have thin screen whatever technology is out at that time and be watching tv on that.

Books I could see being obsolete but only if there're some kind of portable like mp3 players with text reading ability (with good resolutions), because I still prefer getting a book then reading anything on a computer and I don't like palm pilots.

Sigh. You people aren't really understanding what he said. The TV model will be dead in 10 years, meaning that you probably won't be getting channels from over-the-air, or through cable or satellite. You'll probably get it through the Internet. The actual TV will be here for years to come, but how you get your content will change.

For example, in 10 years, it will probably be possible to solve what I like to call the "hot show" problem. Essentially, someone discovers a cool show while flipping through the channels but they watch it during the middle of the new season. You're then faced with a dilemma. You could either wait for the DVD to come out to watch the episodes up to the new one (which probably wont be until the NEXT season), or go the illegal route and download them from off the internet. Being able to stream the episode directly to your TV would solve the problem.

You can see that the industry is taking it's first baby steps with Apple's announcement of the iTV.

For those who hate reading long posts, here's an easy summary: Gates said that it's likely in 10 years, we will be able to stop building our schedules around the time a show comes on and just have it come to us.

I don't know, he said tablets were gonna be a hit. But it's pretty much a flop, even with the introduction of origami pcs.

Theyre becomming more popular just slowly and if you ask me its a technical and price issue more than it is consumers being shy. I would LOVE to get a tablet instead of a laptop as it can do everything a laptop can and more but why would I get a tablet pc when an equivalently specced laptop is roughly 1/3 the price.

Origami is affordable but it also has its drawbacks. First the battery life sucks, we need a new battery tech and fast (and that applies to laptops, mp3 players ect too). It's also designed to run any windows app but to be honest it lacks the power to do alot of what people would want. Storage is also a huge issue last time I looked with the base models being 20GB. I havent looked for 6 months or so but.

Again its cheaper to get a base level laptop than an orgami and the laptop will be more powerful most likely too.

This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Posts

    • Why it's almost impossible to produce a smartphone in the United States by Hamid Ganji If you look at the back of some Apple products, you can see the famous phrase “Designed by Apple in California, Assembled in China.” This phrase appears on products from one of the largest smartphone brands in the United States. These products are designed in the U.S., but their manufacturing takes place in China, India, Vietnam, or even Brazil. But why can’t Apple, as one of the largest American tech companies, produce its iPhones on U.S. soil? The idea for this topic came to me after the Trump Foundation launched a smartphone called the T1 and claimed that it was designed and built with American values in mind. However, this claim did not last long, as it was revealed that Trump’s phone was actually a rebranded HTC U24 Pro, with only a gold case and minor internal component changes. You see? Even a phone that is supposed to represent American values is manufactured in China. With a gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding $32 trillion, the United States is currently the world’s largest economy, while China ranks second with around $20 trillion. On the other hand, the United States is by a wide margin the global leader in various technological fields, and American companies spend hundreds of billions of dollars annually on research and development. From Apple and Google to Microsoft, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and others, American tech and industrial giants lead their foreign competitors in many sectors. The United States also has no shortage of smartphone brands. Apple, Google, and Motorola are among the major brands in the smartphone market, collectively holding a significant share. However, the vast majority of their products are manufactured outside the United States. So why is it that the world’s largest economy, home to the most advanced technology companies and industrial powers, cannot produce a smartphone on its own soil? Let’s explore this question together. Even threats to impose tariffs won’t work After Trump entered the White House as the 47th President of the United States, his administration adopted strict tariff policies. One of these policies was the imposition of a 25% tariff on smartphones manufactured outside the United States. Trump said he “had a little problem” with Apple CEO Tim Cook over producing smartphones outside the U.S. So he thought that threatening a 25% tax on imported phones might force Apple to bring manufacturing back to the United States. “I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Image via The White House Although Apple currently manufactures some of the iPhone’s chips in the United States with TSMC's help, it still shows no willingness to shift full iPhone production to the country. At the time, renowned Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote on X, “In terms of profitability, it’s way better for Apple to take the hit of a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US market than to move iPhone assembly lines back to the US.” However, manufacturing a smartphone in the United States is not as easy as it might seem, and many technical and economic barriers are involved. The lack of necessary manufacturing hubs There is a clear reason why many companies prefer to manufacture their products in China. China has established itself as the main global manufacturing hub for international companies, and over the past few decades, large contract manufacturers have emerged there, allowing companies like Apple to outsource production. One such example is Foxconn, which also manufactures some Apple products in India. Building the infrastructure required to produce smartphones in the United States would require tens of billions of dollars in new investment. Factories would need to be built, essential manufacturing equipment would have to be installed, and, most importantly, a skilled workforce capable of operating these systems would need to be recruited and trained. The United States currently lacks the core infrastructure needed to manufacture smartphones, and for this reason, many companies prefer to outsource production to Chinese contractors rather than spend tens of billions of dollars to build that infrastructure, which is significantly more economically efficient. Additionally, building such infrastructure in the United States could take up to a decade, ultimately leading to a significant increase in the product's final price for consumers. Shortage of trained labor in the U.S. compared to China Decades of serving as a global manufacturing hub have allowed China to build a massive talent pool in the production sector that is almost unmatched worldwide. Today, if a company chooses to manufacture its products in China, it can be confident that the workers involved in production have years of experience in their respective roles and are capable of producing high-quality goods with minimal errors. Even if we assume that tens of billions of dollars were invested in building smartphone manufacturing infrastructure in the United States, finding skilled workers would remain highly challenging. Apple CEO Tim Cook visiting the iPhone 6 assembly line in China in 2014. Image: Tim Cook on X In a 2015 interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes, Tim Cook said the main reason Apple isn’t producing in the US is a lack of skills. "China put an enormous focus on manufacturing, in what you and I would call vocational kind of skills. The US over time began to stop having as many vocational kinds of skills. I mean you could take every tool and die maker in the United States and probably put them in the room that we're currently sitting in. In China you would have to have multiple football fields,” Cook said. Also, in 2017, at the Fortune Global Forum in Guangzhou, Cook once again emphasized the importance of highly skilled Chinese workers. “China has moved into very advanced manufacturing, so you find in China the intersection of craftsman kind of skill, and sophisticated robotics and the computer science world. That intersection, which is very rare to find anywhere, that kind of skill, is very important to our business because of the precision and quality level that we like. The thing that most people focus on if they’re a foreigner coming to China is the size of the market, and obviously, it’s the biggest market in the world in so many areas. But for us, the number one attraction is the quality of the people,” Apple CEO said. Higher labor costs in the United States Producing almost any product in the United States is more expensive than in many other countries, and one of the main reasons is the higher cost of labor in the U.S. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, median weekly earnings of full-time workers in the United States were $1,235 in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the average annual salary in China's private sector in 2025 was RMB 71,590 (US$9,961). In many parts of the world, the weekly wage of an American worker is equivalent to several months of income. Another important factor to consider is that in the United States, the workforce capable of working on a smartphone assembly line is highly specialized and therefore commands higher-than-average wages. According to an estimate by Bank of America, producing an iPhone in the U.S. is technically possible, but “iPhone cost can increase 25% purely on higher labor cost in the U.S.” However, this 25% increase applies only if final assembly is performed in the United States while components are still sourced from China or elsewhere. In this case, the price of a base iPhone would rise from $799 to around $1,000. But in another scenario, if Apple were to produce the required components for the iPhone within the United States, production costs could increase by more than 90%. Trump’s dream for a “Made in the USA” iPhone might never come true In a free-market capitalist economy, one of the primary responsibilities of any CEO is to maximize profit. Using Apple as an example, Tim Cook’s role is to maximize the company’s profits so that it can fund research and development for new products and invest in areas such as artificial intelligence, while also keeping shareholders satisfied. Therefore, it is entirely understandable that Apple would choose not to bring its manufacturing back to the United States and instead keep production in countries where labor is cheaper, and products can be manufactured at a lower cost, thereby maximizing its profit margins. What is your opinion about manufacturing smartphones in the United States? If you are an American citizen, would you be willing to pay hundreds of dollars more for a smartphone made domestically in the USA? Let us know in the comments.
    • Cheers everyone for the replies. It's been very useful. 👍
    • Compared to the 7735HS it is around 25-30% slower in multi-threaded tasks (according to Google search) I did a review of the 7735HS Beelink SER6 Max in 2023, but thinking about it, it's not comparable to the 7730U. For the example you gave about how it will be used, the 7730U is actually an excellent choice for its power and battery efficiency.
  • Recent Achievements

    • Reacting Well
      JuvenileDelinquent earned a badge
      Reacting Well
    • One Month Later
      Excellence2025 earned a badge
      One Month Later
    • Week One Done
      Excellence2025 earned a badge
      Week One Done
    • Week One Done
      flexorcist earned a badge
      Week One Done
    • Week One Done
      Woland13 earned a badge
      Week One Done
  • Popular Contributors

    1. 1
      +primortal
      503
    2. 2
      +Edouard
      194
    3. 3
      PsYcHoKiLLa
      151
    4. 4
      Steven P.
      71
    5. 5
      FloatingFatMan
      66
  • Tell a friend

    Love Neowin? Tell a friend!