Bill Gates: TV As We Know it, Obsolete in 10 years

[*RedBull*]

fact: Bill Gates will be obsolete in 10yrs.

[PL_ Veteran]

fact: Bill Gates will be obsolete in 10yrs.

Fact: Bill Gates will be obsolete in about 6 months

And that is fact.

[Lt-DavidW]

I'm sure he's right about TV. Don't know about books though. I think they will be around for at least another 25-30 years until fully replaced.

Books will always be around just as postal mail will.

Some things are too important to leave in the hands of electricity and technology.

What if books became obsolete in 25 years and then an EMP bomb goes off?

Where are all your emergency telephone numbers and safety booklets now?

[Julius Caro]

Bill Gates, the (false?) prophet. (yea, I remember when he said the same with the DVD)

Didnt he say that 64mb ram would be enough for everything ?

Anyway, I think he's right this time. TV is already changing... but on the DVR side. Having things such as tivo or windows media center... that's the future, imo. "Interactive tv" has been possible for like 5 years, and still hasn't kicked off

[riahc3]

To me TV is already obsolete, but books ? never.

Books are not the same as digital media. Pictures express more than words. eBooks should take over and no books should be made :) Like 56K to DSL, I think books accually degrate us from advancing techology.

This of course is a personal opinion :)

[Koolslacker]

I like his vision, but I don't think the technology that we have would make tv go obsolete in 10 years.

[markwolfe Veteran]

Didnt he say that 64mb ram would be enough for everything ?

:rofl:

Read the thread. It was "640K". And that's "kilobytes", as in old-school computing. ;) Heck, there were even 4K consumer PCs back in the day, being sold in glossy magazine ads.

On top of that, there is no documented evidence that he ever even said that. Sort of an internet tale that refuses to fade away.

[Scirwode]

Theyre becomming more popular just slowly and if you ask me its a technical and price issue more than it is consumers being shy. I would LOVE to get a tablet instead of a laptop as it can do everything a laptop can and more but why would I get a tablet pc when an equivalently specced laptop is roughly 1/3 the price.

Origami is affordable but it also has its drawbacks. First the battery life sucks, we need a new battery tech and fast (and that applies to laptops, mp3 players ect too). It's also designed to run any windows app but to be honest it lacks the power to do alot of what people would want. Storage is also a huge issue last time I looked with the base models being 20GB. I havent looked for 6 months or so but.

Again its cheaper to get a base level laptop than an orgami and the laptop will be more powerful most likely too.

Agreed. They really need to get some of their prototypes to production, such as those using hydrogen or fuel cell batteries. Until then, I will stick with my notebook though I do like that the Windows XP Tablet PC Edition has improved from its first rendition, especially the handwriting recognition.

As for books, they will always be around no matter what new technology that comes around with the potential to replace it. I like reading a lot (my favourite writer is Agatha Christie) and I will always love the feel of a book in my hand. The only thing that really concerns me is the usage of paper, in which I hope that they use recycle paper to ensure the environment does not suffer from excessive use.

It's just like with internet. Soon we will go satalite, and may be even by electricty.

Err... ok :blink: . You have just made one of the most confounding and bewildering statement that I have ever read on this forum... :| .

Scirwode

[remix17]

Books will always be around just as postal mail will.

Some things are too important to leave in the hands of electricity and technology.

What if books became obsolete in 25 years and then an EMP bomb goes off?

Where are all your emergency telephone numbers and safety booklets now?

I have news for you. Someday everything will be in the hands of technology and electricity. It's just a matter of when. But you do have a good point about EMP bomb. But I'm sure by then we would figure something out.

[redfish]

I personally feel books will disappear. They just aren't convenient and are extremely fragile as a form of information. Now I don't think it will necessarily happen in our lifetime but mark my word it will happen.

I mean whats the sense in having a book when you can have a paper thin screen with 2 buttons, one to scroll to tne next page and one to go back. Considering that could store 100's of books it makes pure sense. It would also be cheaper for publishers since books wouldnt be manufactured as much as they are provided electronically.

Really I see no advantage to having a book when the right medium arrives for reading electonic documenets. ATM no such device exists that can be used say in bed but it'll happen. The only thing that would keep them going is people latching onto them because they arent ready to let go but im sure many people said records would never be replaced and look what happened.

Hell it may not be a sign but how often does software come with electronic documents now days as opposed to the few hundred page books wed get in the past. ALso digital books can be searched, bookmarked, blogged ect ect far easier.

But yeah, theyd need a hand held device to cater for their reading and no such device exists yet.

Yes thats what people are saying about children and how they should be using e-books on laptops instead of using paper books. So what will happen is that they will drop their laptops and break them, run out of battery life, play games when they should b estudying.

What I think is a little stupid about your view (no offense) is the idea that books have to be pitted against e-books in some all-or-nothing battle.

Books are easier to use in a lot of ways, different from how electronic media are. The idea that physical media (what books are, really) will become obsolete is silly. (Question: will painting and drawing become obselete as Adobe Photoshop advances? Will everyone use Newton-like sticky pads like in that SNL spoof?)

Its just that, the role of books will have to change and be narrowed. People will buy books, like they still buy CDs over downloading mp3s, because they want it on their shelf, because they're interested in it, and it isn't just some fad. Like music CDs will likely be packaged differently, come with more art,etc---books will either be more artful and more meaningful in structure or content, or not published, unless they need to be sold to low income people.

(First thing to die: thousands of boring cook books and travel books)

The reason that records don't exist much anymore, is because CDs are basically records, except smaller. They're just smaller records. e-books are not basically just books, in a lot of cases. But analog records actually are still published and used for smaller music scenes, where they find some value in them.

And personally even though I think networks should use digital signals, laws requiring digital only transmissions I think are dumb, because the whole embrace of digital over analog media is a little shaky. Digital things always need to be decoded, and there is some value in having a pure signal that doesn't need to be decoded, even if it degrades. I know, if for nothing else, it will be used for emergency broadcasts. But really there should be a structure in place for public use of analog tv signals. Even if that means analog broadcast is more like a public community medium, more like radio is, than the corporate structure tv has now.

Edited November 12, 2006 by brianshapiro

[ichi]

I have news for you. Someday everything will be in the hands of technology and electricity. It's just a matter of when.

Why? Just remember a couple of decades ago when everything was made of plastic, it was like the coolest thing back then.

Electronic devices (handhelds and the likes) are still new stuff, and it will take a while to realize where they fit and where they don't.

[badazzEVO8]

As for the tv not being portable. I dont know what he has in mind their. Projectors?

we will be jacked into the matrix and all information will be downloaded directly into our brain

[Kaidiir]

So I also guess that 640k ought to be enough for anybody? :rofl:

bahahaha my thoughts exactly.

[windows95isg8]

I dont think so, TV is here to stay. I watch alot of programs on my computer, but thats because I have downloaded them, as i missed something, or wanted to get something that no longer is on TV. But when something like a Doctor Who Christmas spesal is coming on. **** the computer. I wana watch it on a real TV. its just better, feels more write, and more fun. Even if I had a massive computer screen, still not the same.

[+mrbester MVC]

eBooks should take over and no books should be made

I've got books over 100 years old. They don't need batteries or replacement hardware every so often. They might take up a bit more space than a piece of electronics that will be considered obsolete in the next 3 years, but I'd much rather have them, basically because I'm not going to repeatedly pay to read something.

If Bill Gates thinks he has to go to a museum when he's asked outside a record store what a record looks like, he's either been misquoted or is the richest retard in the history of the planet, possibly the universe.

[badazzEVO8]

So I also guess that 640k ought to be enough for anybody? :rofl:

just like he says 20gb for the 360 is enough for everyone

[remix17]

Why? Just remember a couple of decades ago when everything was made of plastic, it was like the coolest thing back then.

Electronic devices (handhelds and the likes) are still new stuff, and it will take a while to realize where they fit and where they don't.

Technology grows exponentially. If you were to travel 50 years into the future, you would not recognize Earth.

[Sniper101]

Tv wont be totally alienated. The World of Standard Tv will have been fazed out by 2015, But Digital and HD Tv are Still like Beta Programs, There still not up to scratch. Computer to Tv Migration is getting more popular each day. Standard Tv cards will have to be fazed out due to all these changes but we see all these HD-cards coming out when there is hardly any support for these.

What are they going to do if people can't afford Digital nor HD-TV, we going to go back to the Radio Era....

If Bill Gates Want's to think this heh let him ;) atleast it will stop him from making a big fuss out of it all.

[macstorm]

I don't need to be uncle Billy to draw on the same conclusion :rofl:

[ichi]

Technology grows exponentially. If you were to travel 50 years into the future, you would not recognize Earth.

Electronic devices are the rage now, but they will become obsolete relatively soon.

And I'd bet books will still be there.

[Lt-DavidW]

Electronic devices are the rage now, but they will become obsolete relatively soon.

And I'd bet books will still be there.

In some areas technology is already starting to slow down. People will find it very hard to find a reason to buy Windows Vista - despite it's new interface, new sound stack, networking features, etc.

People will find it even harder to find a reason to upgrade from their Blu Ray / HD DVD players to HVD...

At the moment, all were doing is merging devices, increasing quality, speeds and capacities -- reinventing the wheel basically. Better technologies will continue to come along for many years yet and eventually become very affordable, yet there will come a point when all that there is left to add is bloat. That is, unless a revolutionary new branch of technology is suddenly realised (nanotechnology, AI, quantum computing, etc.).