Seagate CEO: Blu-ray won the battle but lost the war

[L3thal Veteran]

Hard drives are still not as reliable as optical media. It would suck to download 20 HD movies onto your hard drive from online retailers to have that hard drive go bad and have to download all that again.

[Boz]

Where? From what I can tell this is you completely changing directions since HD DVD is on the way out.

For every "internet distribution = good point" you made you've made 1000 HD DVD is t3h b3s7 evar posts.

Look for it. I've always said that optical media and GIGABYTES for the advantage of Blu-Ray in space is completely irrelevant as we will see new effective storage media like hard drives and other USB devices, that are much faster, rewritable and hold A LOT more storage while costing less.

Optical media only had purpose with movies, but that it would eventually be replaced by digital distribution.

Of course, people that support Blu-ray simply have no desire to look things that are relevant to the overall picture of things. You only see things that echo positive perspective for Blu-Ray.

[Boz]

I understand that, but quit telling me what is possible and start telling me whether or not consumers want it.

And why do you think they won't want it?

Here, take a look at Netflix vs Blockbuster. Netflix soared past Blockbuster with online service despite the fact that Blockbuster had a store in every neighborhood.

People were and still are to wait a day or TWO to get the movie, just so they don't have to get out of the couch and they get to watch unlimited movies for a fixed price.

With Netflix on-demand online movies, the situation is aready getting there for renting.

People will eat this up, only so far we really didn't have the infrastructure to do it so we can watch HD content.

If you notice, iTunes and their shows is making HUGE amounts of money and they continue increasing the quality of movies and shows you download. It was so successful it warranted Apple creating an Apple TV device for it. The device is being sold like hotcakes too at $300+ a pop.

Tell me, why do you think that XStreamHD technology at $399 that allows you unlimited HD movies you can buy, rent 24 hours a day at any moment? Imagine this, 4x 2TB Seagate harddrives in drive bays of the XStreamHD media center where you store all your movies you downloaded. The best part, when they are digital, you can actually back them up to another HDD and make sure that you have a safe copy. With Blu-Ray for example, if the disc gets damaged, you have to go and buy another copy of it. It is true that if your hard drive goes, everything goes so you tend to lose more, but if they offer downloads tracking like many stock photo or even itunes offer, you can redownload the movies you bought the license for again from the service. All in all, much more flexibility for the consumer.

Add to this the ability to watch the movies you downloaded on any device in your house like PS3, HD DVD player, computer, PSP etc makes it even more appealing.

Yeah, if these guys come out with affordable monthly fees and get the recievers at <$300 over time, they'll replace these pay-per-view services.

[sundayx Veteran]

Sorry Seagate, that's the Bush Administration, not Blu-ray.

[MGS4-SS]

Look for it. I've always said that optical media and GIGABYTES for the advantage of Blu-Ray in space is completely irrelevant as we will see new effective storage media like hard drives and other USB devices, that are much faster, rewritable and hold A LOT more storage while costing less.

Optical media only had purpose with movies, but that it would eventually be replaced by digital distribution.

Of course, people that support Blu-ray simply have no desire to look things that are relevant to the overall picture of things. You only see things that echo positive perspective for Blu-Ray.

I bet that if HDDVD was the one on top, you wouldn't be saying those comments.

[Dogan]

Where? From what I can tell this is you completely changing directions since HD DVD is on the way out.

For every "internet distribution = good point" you made you've made 1000 HD DVD is t3h b3s7 evar posts.

+1

Never heard of xstreamhd before Warner went Blu :rolleyes:

[Ayepecks]

And why do you think they won't want it?

Here, take a look at Netflix vs Blockbuster. Netflix soared past Blockbuster with online service despite the fact that Blockbuster had a store in every neighborhood.

People were and still are to wait a day or TWO to get the movie, just so they don't have to get out of the couch and they get to watch unlimited movies for a fixed price.

With Netflix on-demand online movies, the situation is aready getting there for renting.

People will eat this up, only so far we really didn't have the infrastructure to do it so we can watch HD content.

If you notice, iTunes and their shows is making HUGE amounts of money and they continue increasing the quality of movies and shows you download. It was so successful it warranted Apple creating an Apple TV device for it. The device is being sold like hotcakes too at $300+ a pop.

Tell me, why do you think that XStreamHD technology at $399 that allows you unlimited HD movies you can buy, rent 24 hours a day at any moment? Imagine this Seagate harddrives in drive bays of the XStreamHD media center where you store all your movies you downloaded.

Add to this the ability to watch the movies you downloaded on any device in your house like PS3, HD DVD player, computer, PSP etc makes it even more appealing.

Yeah, if these guys come out with affordable monthly fees and get the recievers at <$300 over time, they'll replace these pay-per-view services.

How many people have used this whole "on-demand" stuff? Why are satellite companies not making an absolute killing on pay-per-view movies compared to rental stores and services like Netflix and Blockbuster? Consumers have already spoken with their actions. They don't want these kind of services because they're not buying them.

Don't confuse Netflix's mail service with this. It's not even remotely the same.

XStreamHD has a neat idea, but I don't think people will buy it. How about all the customers that don't have broadband internet -- what are they supposed to use? What about people who have download limits imposed by their ISPs -- what are they supposed to do? How about people that want a physical indication that they own something -- what are they supposed to do? How about people who don't want to spend $400 on an appliance to download and play movies when they can spend less on an appliance that plays movies -- what are they supposed to do?

+1

Never heard of xstreamhd before Warner went Blu :rolleyes:

As much as I vehemently disagree with Boz's stance, he has been saying downloads are the future for a while now. You two need to stop trying to incite problems.

[ctebah]

XStreamHD has a neat idea, but I don't think people will buy it. How about all the customers that don't have broadband internet -- what are they supposed to use? What about people who have download limits imposed by their ISPs -- what are they supposed to do? How about people that want a physical indication that they own something -- what are they supposed to do? How about people who don't want to spend $400 on an appliance to download and play movies when they can spend less on an appliance that plays movies -- what are they supposed to do?

they are supposed to buy Blu-Ray. :p

[Dogan]

As much as I vehemently disagree with Boz's stance, he has been saying downloads are the future for a while now. You two need to stop trying to incite problems.

Do you think he would have mentioned xstreamhd if Warner had gone hd dvd? I doubt it.

But I guess he will tell me otherwise :laugh:

[Ayepecks]

Do you think he would have mentioned xstreamhd if Warner had gone hd dvd? I doubt it.

But I guess he will tell me otherwise :laugh:

I do. But you're obviously to blind with joy in the fact that you can rub the Warner Blu-Ray situation in his face for a while before it gets old (or gets you warned) to comprehend that.

stevan: That's my point. :)

[Boz]

How many people have used this whole "on-demand" stuff? Why are satellite companies not making an absolute killing on pay-per-view movies compared to rental stores and services like Netflix and Blockbuster? Consumers have already spoken with their actions. They don't want these kind of services because they're not buying them.

Don't confuse Netflix's mail service with this. It's not even remotely the same.

XStreamHD has a neat idea, but I don't think people will buy it. How about all the customers that don't have broadband internet -- what are they supposed to use? What about people who have download limits imposed by their ISPs -- what are they supposed to do? How about people that want a physical indication that they own something -- what are they supposed to do? How about people who don't want to spend $400 on an appliance to download and play movies when they can spend less on an appliance that plays movies -- what are they supposed to do?

On Demand stuff is not the same as what we are talking about here. Btw, Pay-Per-View is doing just fine it's mass adopted everywhere. People do pay them, but it's the limited choices of movies and high price per movie that has somewhat a limiting factor. Their infrastructure didn't allow proper support to consumers.

And you are right, I was never a big fan of pay-per-view as I don't actually own the movie. I'd like something like iTunes that will offer me to buy and create a digital libarary of movies in my home as opposed to paying $5-$6-$10 per movies every time I want to watch it. This business model is what has kept digital distribution from igniting.

Netflix service is the same as this in a way because you are using alternate means of getting movies. You don't own them, you have your account online and your order movies online. The only thing is that you get them to your house via mail.

Now replace this type of service with digital one. Where there's no need to wait at all. You do the same thing and start watching the movie right away. This is the reason why Netflix is opening their own ONLINE viewing module.

The problem with this though is that it will work only for SD for now if they rely on cable connection. At least not until next year when we can expect to have 40-50mbps connections as standard. In the meantime, satellite/XSteamHD type of service relies on satellite. The best idea that combines the effectiveness of Netflix approach with the ability to actually own movies as you can download them, but with no bandwith restrictions.

Again, for xStreamHD you don't need internet. It's satellite. Satellite dish and setting up is cheap today and millions and millions of people already has the infrastructure for it, courtesty of DirectTV.

Honestly, this is no different then Blu-Ray players now. If one defends that it's ok to pay $300-$400 for Blu-Ray player, I can't say that xStreamHD for $399 will be a horrible thing. Of course, it will start with early adopters first, but the beauty of mass adoption is that as more people sign up, they'll make it more appealing. There's no doubt, just like any Blu-Ray player or HD DVD player would drop in price. Don't forget, for companies like XstreamHD the main source of revenue will be monthly subscription, not the device itself.

And XStreamHD in question here, offers 3 models, you can BUY and OWN the movie (in digital form of course) and watch it ANYWHERE, renting it and I believe that you'll even have movies in theaters available through their system.

I think that in Q4 2008, I'll be getting one without a doubt. They will probably face slower adoption with studios, but it will come when they give them good money possibilities. Don't forget all these studios are horny about digital too as it allows them multiple sales of the same item for overall higher price. There's a reason why iTunes is no. 1 service.

The only reason Universal walked from them is because they wouldn't raise the price on some movies. If they did, they wouldn't have problems. But in essence it shows how much everyone likes digital. Just look at Xbox Live too.

This model is the future and is closer then we all thought.

[oriveradel]

Yes we'll all be downloading our movies eventually, but that's not in this war. By the time downloading movies becomes feasible for the majority, Blu-Ray will already have many years as the top format for buying movies in.

Common you guys, direct Tv has HD on demand movies and events that download off the internet while watching satellite Tv, gets recorded on direct Tv HD DVRS, all direct tv customers can do that. All the new direct dvr receivers since last year have an internet connection, and you can also play music and photos from your networked computers. I have my dvr full of stuff for my children, and PPV events and PPv movies that I missed.

I can record all of that to dvdrw if I want to.

[Dogan]

I do. But you're obviously to blind with joy in the fact that you can rub the Warner Blu-Ray situation in his face for a while before it gets old (or gets you warned) to comprehend that.

stevan: That's my point. :)

I dont.

I am not rubbing anything in anyones face. My opinion is that this xtreamhd talk would have never started if things were looking good for HD DVD (as in Warner going exclusive with them).

Getting warned for speaking my mind? :laugh:

[Tamilboy86]

I want to have physical copy of my movies...

[Ayepecks]

I dont.

I am not rubbing anything in anyones face. My opinion is that this xtreamhd talk would have never started if things were looking good for HD DVD (as in Warner going exclusive with them).

Getting warned for speaking my mind? :laugh:

Given that he's stated he expects online services to do well in the past, I disagree completely. Also because XStreamHD had a big presence at CES (at least in the technology community), I disagree again.

And, no, I don't think anyone should get warned for speaking their mind. I think the people who are flame baiting Boz should be warned.

@ Boz: Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree and see which format is widely adopted in the future... although it may be a few years.

[goji]

And why do you think they won't want it?

Simple. Costs.

Companies can announce outrageous speed offerings for upload and downloading, but overall I have yet to see a "decent" price point for high speed. In my neck of the woods 25 dollars covers 1.5mb download and 340k upload. There is no way in hell that this download offerings are going to take off when the customer is already crippled with the packages being offered.

If the pricing scheme changes, then I don't for see a problem. According to the teleco folks I've been talking about, the infrastructure in the US is there, however the licensing and other political kinks would still need to be worked on.

[TDQuiksilver]

HD Streaming is coming... that's a given. Nobody should even question that. We've already seen it through SD On Demand. But it's not now... and it's not even ready for the wide scale yet. The current high definition leader is now clearly Blu-ray and will continue to be until the XStream (or whatever comes out on top) is complete.

Dogan has a point however. While it is a cool and upcoming technology, it probably wouldn't have been touted as much had HD-DVD not been given dropkick it received. :laugh:

[Coldgunner]

until ISP's get off their ass, upgrade their systems, remove caps and stop overselling themselves then internet based HD video has a future. I'd rather spend ?20 on a BD with a good selection of audio options, extras and the ability to copy to my psp, rather than a <50Gb download.

[atkinsn2000]

You people fail to see that (in US alone) broadband speeds by 2009 have been announced to be between 50-100 mbps. Satellite services like xStreadHD have proven quite possible delivering 80mbps streams that can carry full 1080p / 7.1 DTS-MA HD streams and allow you do download them to your hard drives and watch them on any DLNA device in your home (PS3, HD DVD player, computer etc)

As much as it wishes it could the US doesn't control the world and the rest of the world won't have 50-100 mbps internet connections. For about another 25 years so that this will not take off for a long time to come and it will be for the next evolution of video resolution not the 1080 that we have now.

Here in the UK for the standard of broadband is about 8 mbps and this is only achievable for the people that like within less than 1 mile of the telephone exchange after that the speed drops off extremely fast.

ADSL2+ is also many years off here and that can only achieve 24 mbps speeds.

There are still large amounts of people in the UK that can only use a 56 kbps modem to get online.

until ISP's get off their ass, upgrade their systems, remove caps and stop overselling themselves then internet based HD video has a future. I'd rather spend ?20 on a BD with a good selection of audio options, extras and the ability to copy to my psp, rather than a <50Gb download.

And yes good point gonna download a 30GB movie on your limited bandwidth of about 20GB per month.

Finish it off next month.

Edited January 10, 2008 by atkinsn2000

[goji]

Dogan has a point however. While it is a cool and upcoming technology, it probably wouldn't have been touted as much had HD-DVD not been given dropkick it received. :laugh:

I doubt it. These techs and services have been in the works for a while now: MS's IPTV?

I honestly think it was a timed release for CES and with little relation to HD-DVDs facially received "dropkick". To each their own.

However I'll add a bit that I doubt has been mentioned but I've thought about before. HD as a whole will probably never take off in the manner many people think it will. As it stands we live in a mobile society where mp3's and iPods rule the day. Not full 1080p 60fps @ 120hz or 96/24 bit and 192/24 bit Hi-fi audio sources; not to mention this stuff takes up a lot of space.

If they did DVDA and SACD would have taken off years ago amongst everyday Americans who in turn decided mp3's were much more practical and Apple in a stroke of genius marketed on what the market was desiring, an iPod.

[Boz]

As much as it wishes it could the US doesn't control the world and the rest of the world won't have 50-100 mbps internet connections. For about another 25 years so that this will not take off for a long time to come and it will be for the next evolution of video resolution not the 1080 that we have now.

I think you have researched information very poorly.

USA is number 18 or so on the list of broadband speeds in various countries. So it's hardly leading. Meaning that other countries in Europe and Asia have much faster connections even now, going over 100mbps in japan I think.

If you think that digital distribution is 25 years away I think you are in for a HUGE surprise. It's already HERE, it just doesn't do HD. Xbox Live with over 10 million users offers TV shows and movies in 720p now. I don't hear people complaining or not downloading. It's obviously very popular.

XStreamHD like technologies offer smart approaches. The only mistake they can make is create an unfriendly digital management of the assets you download, nothing more and of course very expensive monthly subscription. I think, juding by their intentions this will not happen. They are on a very positive path to have a kick ass HD service for everyone.

Links:

http://www.internetinnovation.org/tabid/56.../7/Default.aspx

Japan had 100 mbps capability in 2005:

http://www.physorg.com/news7068.html

US broadband trailing other countries:

http://blogs.computerworld.com/node/6500

Edited January 10, 2008 by Boz

[Coldgunner]

is x stream going via subscription or pay as you download via sattelite?

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Physical media has a long way to go still.

Hell I can't even stream HD movies internally in my house without hiccups/slowdowns (damn wireless).

The best internet speed I can get currently is 2-3MB (on 8MB DSL MAX).

Download limits would suffer under these proposals as well, and the UK loves download limits/"fair use" policies.

[Boz]

is x stream going via subscription or pay as you download via sattelite?

As far as I see, it's a subscription based model.

[Coldgunner]

another note to add, a lot of people, like myself, like to have a physical collection, I like having a large movie shelf. If a wanna go to a mates and watch a movie I own, all I gotta do is pick it up and go.