MS: shift away from discs will happen sooner than any of us think

[Kushan]

Yeah, there's pros and cons to both, really. I generally buy films I like, so I can keep them there and watch whenever I like. I only tend to rent films I'm not sure about, or films I haven't seen in a while but don't really want to buy, for whatever reason.

Plus, if you've got some friends over and you all decide you'd like to watch an old favourite, it can also be great to have it in a matter of hours.

[Neo003]

10 min max and 5 if I do 60, Also by netflix I have it in a day.

[Kushan]

Lucky you, a lot of people don't live near a rental place and even more can't drive. Plus, most rental places aren't open 24 hours a day. There is actually a 24hour rental place down the street from me, but it's selection is appalling and it has NO HD content. They do games as well and the newest one they have is Halo 3. It's a joke.

The idea of the marketplace is that it'll constantly expand and do more than just rent films. Eventually, you'll be able to watch any television shows you like, programs you may have missed or whatever and they certainly wont take that long to download (plus most rental places don't do TV shows).

[Shadrack]

the only thing limiting things like this right now are the ISP's.

there holding back HD video too, government should give them a set date to get there equipment upgraded, so that it can handle hd video streams for all of its customers.

i don't think governments needs to be involved. once a good source of HD content exists for download at a competitive price, a profitable isp will offer a service to get to it and in order to stay competitive other isps will have to do the same.

[PL_ Veteran]

No. Whenever the option is there, I get the physical version.

• Share it with friends
  
• Can be sold on later
  
• Get something physical to hold in your hand
  
• Can be displayed on a shelf
  
• Doesn't rely on an Internet connection
  
• Cannot be controlled by anyone else (nobody can tell me I can't play my disc-based game anymore)
  
• Can be bought from anywhere that sells games (this is a HUGE one...with digital distribution there's only one shop and they can make it any price they like because you can't go elsewhere)
  
• Doesn't require a credit card/bank account
  
• Doesn't depend on a storage medium...because it comes on one
  

[Smashing Pumpkin]

10 min max and 5 if I do 60, Also by netflix I have it in a day.

I much prefer discs, digital downloads, bah!

And where is your nick from lol?

[Bhav]

No. Whenever the option is there, I get the physical version.

• Share it with friends
  
• Can be sold on later
  
• Get something physical to hold in your hand
  
• Can be displayed on a shelf
  
• Doesn't rely on an Internet connection
  
• Cannot be controlled by anyone else (nobody can tell me I can't play my disc-based game anymore)
  
• Can be bought from anywhere that sells games (this is a HUGE one...with digital distribution there's only one shop and they can make it any price they like because you can't go elsewhere)
  
• Doesn't require a credit card/bank account
  
• Doesn't depend on a storage medium...because it comes on one
  

(Y)(Y)(Y)

Great post :)

[Julius Caro]

digital downloads have not even taken over in the music market (don't they account for about 30% of all the music sold or something?), I dont think it's going to be different with video anytime soon. Let's say I download a movie and some friends want to watch it too and we decide to go to friendX's house? How am I supposed to take the movie to his house? burning it onto a disc perhaps? oh no wait, DRM won't let me do that.

If anything digital downloads are going to be a nice solution for SD-quality movies (due to their size, DRM apart, they're easy to carry on usb sticks).

I'm sure downloads will take over anything once DRM is gone, bandwidth is (way) UP, and 50gb ultrafast USB sticks are given way like candy!

[+virtorio MVC]

It takes too long to download even a demo of a game over my so called "high speed" Internet connection; I'd never consider downloading a full game. Like my movies and my music, I'll take the physical copy thanks.

[Xerxes]

I can't see this happening...well not here anyway, perhaps in other countries. The fastest broadband speed in my area is 1.5Mb and there are no plans to upgrade it, Telsta thinks it's more then enough :laugh: and since it owns all the exchanges around here, I doubt any of the other telcos could even try to offer faster speeds...or could they?

[Joni_78]

MS thinks everyone downloading 30 GB movies in 12 months? More like 12 years. :whistle:

[Neo003]

And where is your nick from lol?

Actually I think it started with neowin. I was trying to create an account and was trying Neo007 but being used to my calculator at the time I typed 3 instead of 7. It was long time ago and I was a big fan of 007.

[theyarecomingforyou]

MS thinks everyone downloading 30 GB movies in 12 months?

Blu-Ray is 50GB per movie. A few things lead me to question their logic.

1) The X360 hard-drive is missing on the cheap model, 20GB for the basic model (less than half a movie) and 120GB on the elite model (two and a bit movies).

2) Download speeds are around 2MBit on average (no use for streaming hi-def content).

3) Download caps are around 2GB-30GB on average (not even enough for ONE hi-def movie).

4) People like boxes and discs with art.

5) People don't trust digital content completely and if you can't redownload it at will (like Steam) then you'll need to burn every movie onto disc, requiring a Blu-ray burner and discs.

This is a lot of hot air to play down Sony's advantage. It's also an insult that Microsoft was happy to make an HD-DVD addon to "benefit" the consumer and yet won't for Blu-ray now that it has won. Microsoft is yet again manipulating markets and disadvantaging the consumer. Don't get me wrong... the X360 still has the best selection of games and performance that easily stands up to that of the PS3. I just hate all the politics, like this announcement of everyone suddenly downloading movies. People don't want to spend ?1000 on a 40" hi-def TV and then download standard def compressed movies lower than DVD quality or hi-def content that takes ages to download, is a nightmare to store and will blow through residential download caps.

[DrunkenMaster]

I'm kinda on the fence on this. When I was a teen, I used to buy a lot of CDs. I don't think parents will be wise to letting their kids buy a bunch of stuff on the Internet. Same for movies and games. Kids would try and treat it as a free for all. Being in my mid-20's, I see myself spending less on movies and music (I have more than I can listen to) and this is the prime market for MS as I have a disposable income ("disposable" never sounds right).

OTOH, with CD and DVD-rot and media companies not taking the onus to ante up and replacing discs after a few years (when this usually happens), and the idea that the content you once purchased on Tape, CD or DVD can't be upgraded for a minimum cost to whatever the new standard is, I kind of like putting the onus on another company to preserve my collection. Let MS or Apple keep multi-terabyte databases/catalogs of music and be responsible for backing it up. Save me time.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Blu-Ray is 50GB per movie. A few things lead me to question their logic.

1) The X360 hard-drive is missing on the cheap model, 20GB for the basic model (less than half a movie) and 120GB on the elite model (two and a bit movies).

2) Download speeds are around 2MBit on average (no use for streaming hi-def content).

3) Download caps are around 2GB-30GB on average (not even enough for ONE hi-def movie).

4) People like boxes and discs with art.

5) People don't trust digital content completely and if you can't redownload it at will (like Steam) then you'll need to burn every movie onto disc, requiring a Blu-ray burner and discs.

This is a lot of hot air to play down Sony's advantage. It's also an insult that Microsoft was happy to make an HD-DVD addon to "benefit" the consumer and yet won't for Blu-ray now that it has won. Microsoft is yet again manipulating markets and disadvantaging the consumer. Don't get me wrong... the X360 still has the best selection of games and performance that easily stands up to that of the PS3. I just hate all the politics, like this announcement of everyone suddenly downloading movies. People don't want to spend ?1000 on a 40" hi-def TV and then download standard def compressed movies lower than DVD quality or hi-def content that takes ages to download, is a nightmare to store and will blow through residential download caps.

The only way to really get HD content on hard drive just now is through rips. A 25GB/50GB download for a movie would be outrageous - That is probably what it would need to be to offer everything you get on a retail Blu Ray copy.

Now those aren't always the same quality as the actual Blu Ray disc (vary in resolution/compression) and the obvious things they lack are certain uncompressed sound options and extras.

No extras is already a big enough loss to me as to why downloading movies is not going to surpass physical discs.

Lets say movies offered from the marketplace were similar to the 1080p rips you can get just now, they would be anywhere between 8GB to 12GB.

2 movies and your 20GB drive is full. 10-12 and your 120GB is full.

That is taking into consideration you have no demos/other content.

One last thing, it may sound daft, but buying physical copies will always be the choice for many consumers for birthdays/christmas/ect.

I really doubt parents are going to be buying 4000 MS points for your birthday to go and purchase a movie instead of getting you a physical copy and wrapping it up nicely (if and when Marketplace allows you to own the content instead of rent).

[Leddy]

This isn't exactly as farfetched as many of you think it is. Take a look at Steam, for example. A lot of games are available there and many for a lower price than if you bought it boxed. Plus, where I live on Mondays-Wednesdays shops are only open until 5pm, and therefore if I'm bored in the evening I'll probably end up hopping on Steam to check out a few games.

The only problem is that most markets don't have sufficient download allowances to make this a one-stop shop.

[toadeater]

ROFL. Does this announcement have anything to do with the recent demise of the MS-backed HD DVD?

MS 1 year ago: You must buy HD DVD!

MS now: Discs suck, use our MSHD Live download service instead! Only $19.95 per month.

When you've got ISPs already threatening to cap downloads, how does MS expect this to work? A couple of 30GB HD movies a month and your entire quota would be filled. Not to mention how long it would take to download them. This is going to clog up the internet tubes, if ISPs are to be believed.

[5Horizons]

I don't think streaming HD is that crazy of an idea... I'm in the USA right now where internet connections are supposedly "teh suck" and I can download a 6gb file in about 2 hours, which seems enough for 720p at least. I'd go for that if it was a couple bucks per rental, equivalent to driving to the nearest Redbox.

As far as downloading and storing the files, nah, that wouldn't work.

[temple_treefrog]

I can't remember the last time I purchased an audio CD... It was years ago when I purchased my last audio CD in fact. I remember in the days of dial-up when it would take 15-30 minutes to download a song. Now it takes less than a minute on my ADSL2+ connection.

I prefer downloading my music and purchasing my music over the Internet. It's fast, easy and simple. Same with TV shows. It's only a matter of time before the same thing happens with movies.

[Neo003]

Hence the point, unless 50% of internet user have fiber optic line 40+ gig caps nobody has any ability to download all the movie that will be coming out of Hollywood.

On average 170? movies are released in a year, of which on average you will see at least 50. Those fifty movies will be release in HD next year, those fifty movies you will be downloading on SD (since HD version will be 4x the SD.) and that?s just the movie not any additional features.

[Elliott]

iTunes is second only to Wal-mart in music sales, and video sales are becoming increasingly popular. I think it's very plausible that the future will be downloaded media. Drive sizes are enormous now and the delivery systems are getting so fast and easy to use.

I personally haven't bought a DVD or CD in a very long time. It all comes from iTunes/Xbox Live for me now.

[Kushan]

The only way to really get HD content on hard drive just now is through rips. A 25GB/50GB download for a movie would be outrageous - That is probably what it would need to be to offer everything you get on a retail Blu Ray copy.

Now those aren't always the same quality as the actual Blu Ray disc (vary in resolution/compression) and the obvious things they lack are certain uncompressed sound options and extras.

No extras is already a big enough loss to me as to why downloading movies is not going to surpass physical discs.

Lets say movies offered from the marketplace were similar to the 1080p rips you can get just now, they would be anywhere between 8GB to 12GB.

2 movies and your 20GB drive is full. 10-12 and your 120GB is full.

That is taking into consideration you have no demos/other content.

One last thing, it may sound daft, but b.

uying physical copies will always be the choice for many consumers for birthdays/christmas/ect.

I really doubt parents are going to be buying 4000 MS points for your birthday to go and purchase a movie instead of getting you a physical copy and wrapping it up nicely (if and when Marketplace allows you to own the content instead of rent).

You make valid points, but I don't think Microsoft is intending for everyone to switch their physical collections into digital ones (at least not yet). I think they're focusing mainly on the rental of films, which pretty much eliminates any problems you may have with storage space - since when you watch it, it deletes itself (and why would you need more than 2 films on your hard drive in that case?).

Plus, it isn't just films, there's TV shows as well, something I think a lot of people here are overlooking. They're smaller than films, cheaper and lots of people would definitely be interested in watching specific episodes (maybe they missed them when they were on TV, or maybe it's just a favourite of theirs) but wouldn't buy the whole series for it.

In fact, I think the 360 marketplace is a better way to distribute them than iTunes, because it goes straight to your TV, no faffing about with your PC or portable media player.

And if you still think ISP's are the biggest limitation of all this, go talk to Apple because they've been selling this kind of content for a while now.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

^

Fair enough, they may be onto a winner with rental.

But even still, many people will opt to go with things such as Amazon rental, where you can rent as many films as you want a month for ?x.xx and the movie doesn't get "deleted" in a certain timescale - Although if renting, something like a week is more enough IMO.

As for TVShows, not really anything special. With all the recording devices out there nowadays, you can just record TVshows off the TV.

Sony for example are releasing PlayTV which allows you to record in SD/HD all your TV shows to your PS3 hard drive. No need to pay for any of them, although you will be shelling out a fee upfront for the device.

Yes you can record movies, but movies don't tend to appear on the TV for mooonths if not years after their release, unless your on a subscription based TV service. TV Shows on the otherhand tend to be broadcasted on free to view channels.

[Joni_78]

Blu-Ray is 50GB per movie.

Yes, but the full disc content is usually around 30 Gb.

[Kushan]

^

Fair enough, they may be onto a winner with rental.

But even still, many people will opt to go with things such as Amazon rental, where you can rent as many films as you want a month for ?x.xx and the movie doesn't get "deleted" in a certain timescale - Although if renting, something like a week is more enough IMO.

As for TVShows, not really anything special. With all the recording devices out there nowadays, you can just record TVshows off the TV.

Sony for example are releasing PlayTV which allows you to record in SD/HD all your TV shows to your PS3 hard drive. No need to pay for any of them, although you will be shelling out a fee upfront for the device.

Yes you can record movies, but movies don't tend to appear on the TV for mooonths if not years after their release, unless your on a subscription based TV service. TV Shows on the otherhand tend to be broadcasted on free to view channels.

The problem with those online rental places is that they can sometimes take a while. I mean, your first rental will come to you within a day (usually), so that's great. But then to get another film, you have to send that one back, wait until they get it and wait another day for them to send out the next one to you.

I haven't used Amazon's rental thing, but we did sign up to Lovefilm and although it was great, we didn't get to choose exactly what film we wanted. Instead, we had a "pool" of films they could send us at any one time. There was a priority system, but we never got a single "high-priority" title. What if you just don't want to watch the film they happened to send you this time? You know, if they send you a thriller when you're just in the mood for a comedy.Those are just some of the flaws with those systems that an online marketplace won't suffer from.

Of course, they have their advantages as well, I'm just saying that as good as they are, there's still an area that the marketplace fills.

TV shows are bigger than you think, a good TV show will make a lot more money than a box office smash (Just look at some of the big franchises over the years, from the likes of Star Trek, to modern hits like Lost and Heroes) and although they DO tend to be on TV a lot and you could record them, it's easier to just download them and watch when you like. Other than that difference, they're about the same, but a key thing is that you don't need to have "access" to that program to get it. What if you don't have Sky, but want to see the latest episode of Battlestar Galactica? Maybe you do have Sky, but you missed the episode and aren't sure when it'll be repeated. Hell, do you even need Sky any more if you can spend ?15 a month watching JUST what you want to watch, or ?30 for the Sky subscription?

It's not for everyone, obviously, but that doesn't mean it just wont work.