Samsung: Blu-Ray gone by 2012

[sn00pie]

As much as I support Blu-ray, I must admit that the future would probably shy away from having physical disks as a format. We're getting lazier and lazier, and having a disc for each movie is slowly going to be old-fashioned. That's where your digital downloads could fit perfectly into the mix. If we had bigger download limits from our ISP's and faster connections, I think most people would much rather be downloading there HD movies then having to actually buy them.

I agree with you [boz] on the topic of Blu-ray not doing as well as originally thought. I was under the impression that BD would replace DVD at a very accelerated rate, and we'd all be getting into the world of HD content. But that transition is still pretty non-existent and consumers are still purchasing more DVD movies, then BD movies.

The thought that the future of movies is still after all these years going to be on a physical disc. Especially with the technology we have today, makes me realize that we as tech-savvy consumers expect much more, and digital downloads is a more futuristic way to view your movies. It may not be practical for everyone to buy a 1TB HDD for there stuff, but at the same time you're just as likely to purchase a stand-alone Blu-ray player right?

The next-generation of TV panels at this point are going to be OLED displays, which will hit the market soon. I believe I read an article somewhere saying we already have TV sets that can display a picture far better than anything we have today, yet we just don't have a format to carry it out on, something along those lines...?

Once again another thread where people don't give a **** about the subject, all they care is that Boz is the thread author and the subject of the thread is negative towards Blu-ray. :rolleyes:

[SuperJediMedia]

We're getting lazier and lazier

Speak for yourself, I am not lazy! Well, I maybe, but I still love Physical format Better!

I SWEAR, DD will NEVER be my format of choice, EVER! (UNless, of course it's Free)

Edited September 9, 2008 by JediXAngel

[Boz]

As much as I support Blu-ray, I must admit that the future would probably shy away from having physical disks as a format. We're getting lazier and lazier, and having a disc for each movie is slowly going to be old-fashioned. That's where your digital downloads could fit perfectly into the mix. If we had bigger download limits from our ISP's and faster connections, I think most people would much rather be downloading there HD movies then having to actually buy them.

I agree with you [boz] on the topic of Blu-ray not doing as well as originally thought. I was under the impression that BD would replace DVD at a very accelerated rate, and we'd all be getting into the world of HD content. But that transition is still pretty non-existent and consumers are still purchasing more DVD movies, then BD movies.

The thought that the future of movies is still after all these years going to be on a physical disc. Especially with the technology we have today, makes me realize that we as tech-savvy consumers expect much more, and digital downloads is a more futuristic way to view your movies. It may not be practical for everyone to buy a 1TB HDD for there stuff, but at the same time you're just as likely to purchase a stand-alone Blu-ray player right?

The next-generation of TV panels at this point are going to be OLED displays, which will hit the market soon. I believe I read an article somewhere saying we already have TV sets that can display a picture far better than anything we have today, yet we just don't have a format to carry it out on, something along those lines...?

Snoopie, you are right, but the reality is that people treat Blu-Ray as an already established mainstream format, when it's really not. It's at BEST 2-3% of market. At an incredibly accelerated rate they have very little chances of reaching any real significant numbers within 5 years..

The second biggest obstacle is that Blu-Ray replication machines and all the infrastructure is by no means rushed towards by businesses. Major reason is that it costs several million to adopt. Why would anyone in their sensible mind invest millions into something that's 2-3% of a market when they can invest that money in the next step which will be flash memory, digital downloads and overall everything connecting to broadband. Doesn't make any business sense and this is why essentially Blu-Ray equipment sales are really going pretty bad overall. One of the companies that tried to open it here in the States Blue-Ray Technologies had to file for bankruptcies and had serious financial issues.

The thing today is that technology evolves much faster then it did even at DVD age, 1080p in Blu-Ray quality might not be possible..but 2-3 years from now.. it will be, have no doubt about that. Just remember what you were buying technology wise 3-4 or 5 years ago and it's pretty telling of what will most likely happen. Mass storage devices, home servers, hard disks, flash memory are dropping at rapid rate, in the next 5 years all this will be so convenient and cheap for regular consumer that it won't make any sense to use optical media anymore.

I hard use optical media today when I can get 1tb external drive for $150-$200.

[SuperJediMedia]

But that transition is still pretty non-existent and consumers are still purchasing more DVD movies, then BD movies.

You also need to consider how many people even have a HDTV, plus a Blu-ray player on top of that.

MOST people who don't buy Blu-ray movies just don't have either of those already, in the first place.

I think DD is Retarded...

Yeah, it works Great for companies (More money for them cost them little to nothing to put out), but consumers who finds it a great format, makes NO sense at all!

Those you download from XBL Marketplace, iTunes, GOD HOW can people stand those crap?!!?

HOW can people be SO lazy?

Or is it blindness? Just because ALL companies embrace Digital distribution means that's the Best format for consumers?

It will be a SAD day when the future our products are only in digital formats!

http://newlevelgaming.blog-city.com/sony_w...ion_for_ps4.htm

That's about gaming, but it also can be about Movies, music.

Edited September 9, 2008 by JediXAngel

[Boz]

You also need to consider how many people even have a HDTV, plus a Blu-ray player on top of that.

MOST people who don't buy Blu-ray movies just don't have either of those already, in the first place.

I think DD is Retarded...

Yeah, it works Great for companies (More money for them cost them little to nothing to put out), but consumers who finds it a great format, makes NO sense at all!

Those you download from XBL Marketplace, iTunes, GOD HOW can people stand those crap?!!?

HOW can people be SO lazy?

It will be a SAD day when the future our products are only in digital formats!

I don't understand your frustration? So people are lazy because we don't go to a store to buy a disc but we enjoy the convenience of watching movies from our living room?

Have you even used XBL for movies or Vudu HD? HD movies and shows look spectacular and extremely convenient. Add to this that I know people are that EXTREMELY happy with digital Netflix.. it is more and more obvious that people prefer this method over physical media.

One advice, first don't obsess to much with bitrates and specifications, instead just enjoy the quality you see with your own eyes and second, if you don't want to use downloads and feel you are lazy if you do, go to gym more often and you won't feel like it. No?

Just because ALL companies embrace Digital distribution means that's the Best format for consumers?

You mean like Blu-Ray?

[psionicinversion]

whether blue ray lives or dies i reckon within 5 years we wont be having discs we'll be using flash cards at the very least. Like Boz and other pp have said you scratch the disc and its knackered at least with flash cards you cant damage it unless you bend it and if ya bend a disc well it snaps so either way youve lost ya film.

I backup films to my computer and compress them to avi's and have a dvd player that can play avi films in my living room, i get an SD card (well using my phones memory card at the moe as its 2GB), load it up on to there and use my multi-sd card reader to stick it in the USB slot on the player and run it through that. more cost effective than using cd's all the time also deletion is pretty much instant (wouldnt be instant on a re-writable disc) and writing to it take a lot less time than burning a disc so it practical.

You could for all intensive purposes have a "locked" flash card that cant be re-written to with films on it ready available in store or you got your own flash card pay for the film put it in there etc take it home and stick it in the player and play ya film.

DRM on discs is crap anyway, ive never had any problems in stripping the protection off my DVD's. Hackers or whatever there called are obviously more clever than the ppl who come up with these stupid protection ideas which ultimately we have to pay the priviledge for having on the discs which gets defeated like 4 days later or someat, so why bother???

Im sure ive heard of the supposed next thing to high definition from japan, someat rediculous like 30,000x20,000, that type of rediclous resolutions on like 50 inch TV's. Its gonna be a long way off yet but least someone is trying come up with the next version.

oh yeah and on the thing of blue ray players and high techy stuff, seeing as were on the brink of a recession i cant see to many ppl buying lotsa crap they dont need anyway, and tbh a blue ray player with a full 1080p HD screen aint gonna be on there list of priorities for a while

[giantpotato]

I don't think digital downloads will ever take off in the mass consumer market. Just the fact that Digital downloads are intangible makes them unapealing IMO. If I'm buying something I want a physical copy of it that I know is mine. If a digital download company goes belly-up you won't have any assurance your movies will still be playable in the future. Another thing with digital downloads is that you can't re-sell them if you ever want to. I usually purchase steelbook limited editions of movies, and you know what, some of them actually sell on eBay for more than I bought them for. I can see how digital downloads might be convenient for rentals (if you have the bandwidth), but I wouldn't want to invest money in owning intangible movies.

Obviously, something is going to replace Blu-Ray, but I doubt it going to be as soon as 2013, like the article mentions. Are people forgetting how long it took for DVD to become mainstream. It was first released in 1997, and for most of the people I know their first DVD player was the ps2 that they bought in 2000-2001. My first dvd player was one of the "cheap" $150 wal-mart DVD players from around 2002-2003.

Why are people talking about the price of flash storage as if it's cheap? Sure, in a few years it will be cheaper, but optical storage will be even cheaper by that time. Think about it, 4GB on a DVD is $0.30 a 4GB flash drive is $10. a blank 25GB Blu-Ray is $10, show me 25GB of flash storage that's even close to that price. Sure, magnetic storage is cheap, but not flash.

[Mike Frett]

I've honestly never even seen a Blu-Ray disk. I'm serious, lol.

[Smigit]

I agree with you [boz] on the topic of Blu-ray not doing as well as originally thought. I was under the impression that BD would replace DVD at a very accelerated rate, and we'd all be getting into the world of HD content. But that transition is still pretty non-existent and consumers are still purchasing more DVD movies, then BD movies.

IMHO thats one of the big mistakes people made. They expected an overnight transition. It was NEVER going to happen that way and anyone with reasonable insight should have seen that it would take as long as it took DVD's to replace VHS for much the same reasons (price, availabilty, ownership of the existing format). I still think it's happening but until they get $200 or so players out in the field we won't see an overly rapid adoption. Those $200 players don't even have to be technically brilliant, I'm sure sales staff would still be able to sell a truck load of them to users who aren't hugely fussed either way.

[SuperJediMedia]

I don't understand your frustration? So people are lazy because we don't go to a store to buy a disc but we enjoy the convenience of watching movies from our living room?

Have you even used XBL for movies or Vudu HD? HD movies and shows look spectacular and extremely convenient. Add to this that I know people are that EXTREMELY happy with digital Netflix.. it is more and more obvious that people prefer this method over physical media.

One advice, first don't obsess to much with bitrates and specifications, instead just enjoy the quality you see with your own eyes and second, if you don't want to use downloads and feel you are lazy if you do, go to gym more often and you won't feel like it. No?

You mean like Blu-Ray?

Convience means NOTHING to me at all! I swear, people these days are so lazy (Convience is MOST important factor) it makes NO sense!

To me, where MOST important factors are

1) Price Is it the cheapest?

2) AmountDo they give you More stuff Vs Physical copies

Did you check the link I orovided about Video game DD, and the reasons why it Sucks?

Very true what that link says, companies are taken advantage of consumers, that's ALL it is, DD benefits companies NOT consumers at all.

The two important factors I listed just seem to go AGAINST DD being a better format! Time after time, I discovered

1) Price is actually NOT cheaper (At least if you look at XBL MP / EA prices, vs Physical format sold in stores BOTH cases Stores are MUCH Cheaper!)

2) They actually give you LESS contents.

SO, **** DD!!! DD is NOT the future, it's Mostly for Greedy companies to Nick & Dime consumers!!! Only thing consumers benefit from it is Convience, but like I said, I ain't lazy like that, whatsoever.

And I am Just dumbfounded that all you guys are just lured right into it! :rolleyes:

You gotta keep in mind, the MAIN reason ALL these companies Brag that DD is the future, is because they KNOW that can make them MORE profit! These companies are very SMART, got it all plotted out. But does it really help consumers? Other than convience, trust me, NO WAY!!!

Once DD takes over, and Physical format goes away, you WILL see Microtransactions let's NOT be blind and support that, please!!

Edited September 9, 2008 by JediXAngel

[Coldgunner]

Thank you JediXAngel, you pretty much pointed out why I think DD will not take off any time soon. We can't safely make predictions for the next 10 years because we have no idea on the market needs by then.

to download a movie, the average internet user with average speeds will take several hours. Most online stores offer next day delivery and reasonable prices.

[Chad]

And that's YOUR OWN OPINION and there's quite a few people that disagree with you, some of them directly from Sony and other BDA members. Sony themselves said that at this point it is most likely that Blu-Ray won't replace DVD, if you actually read news and kept informed you would know that.

You can HOPE that it will replace DVD, but judging by reality and information we can see now it's highly unlikely.

You make it sound like your opinion is the only one that counts. Why discount what others think?

I think you are overstating your 'facts'. From what I have read, only one suit at Sony has said anything remotely close to what you claim, yet oddly enough, what he ACTUALLY said is not even close to what you claim. His quote:

Looking ahead, you're only just getting into Blu-ray. How do you see the future penetration of the format compared with DVD?

Glasgow: That's a good question. DVD took 10 years to really penetrate. We're now in the second year of Blu-ray. My guess is it will probably happen a little quicker in terms of penetration. The pricing is already coming down more quickly than DVD came down. I don't think it will take as long as 10 years, but I don't think it will penetrate to the same percentage because there's a couple of conflicting forces. Certainly, people that want the best picture are going to want it, without a doubt. People that are OK with upconverting DVD players, which is somewhere close to 600, 650, maybe 700 (lines of resolution)--that's not a bad picture either. So a lot of people may be happy with an upconverting DVD player. And (Blu-ray) may not turn over, it may not penetrate to the same extent, because (DVD) was such a big medium change from tape.

But I see it being the major format. It's won the war, that's done. Now it's a matter of: Can we provide an exceptional experience? Can we provide a social part? And can we involve the overall community in, let's say, designing applets and coming up with new things that we can't even think of today?

So I think it's safe to say that your claim of 'Sony themselves said that at this point it is most likely that Blu-Ray won't replace DVD' is entirely false. Sony has stated they look toward 2011 for Blu to overtake DVD. http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/14979.cfm

Snoopie, you are right, but the reality is that people treat Blu-Ray as an already established mainstream format, when it's really not. It's at BEST 2-3% of market. At an incredibly accelerated rate they have very little chances of reaching any real significant numbers within 5 years..

It's become quite apparent that your reality is quite different than what is actually happening. Blu's market share been anywhere from 6% (week ending Aug 24) to 12% (week ending July 13), however it usually hovers around the 8-9% mark. These numbers are from Nielsen VideoScan, which is pretty much the standard when it comes to video market share. I'm just curious...where do you get your numbers?

From what I have read and I have to agree, is that the future is a proliferation of formats; VOD, BD, downloads, streaming, etc. It would seem that even Sony understands this. BD will be a huge part of this as it provides the most profit and gives us the best quality. That's what some people care about. However there are others that don't want to spend the money on a player/discs and prefer to rent/purchase via Xbox360, iTunes, Netflix, etc. Then we have VOD in 1080p coming from Dish and Directv, however it will not be Blu quality. We are a LONG way from that type of quality being delivered by any other medium. Lastly, there are too many different personal preferences to loudly proclaim that Blu-Ray will be gone by 2012. Samsung has long had their money invested in OLED, so of course they will push that. Whether this Samsung fella is just trying to push attention to his tech or he's simply a buffoon, it's anyone's guess. However with technology advancing quickly, Blu prices WILL drop significantly in the next year or two.

[draklin]

If Download is the future, why hasn't VOD or PPV taken over DVD? After all, it is basically the same concept and you already have the service and it is free if you have cable. But how many people use netflix or rental instead?

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

In 2012 digital and physical will exist, I'm 99.9% certain. Just like physical and digital music coincides together.

Why kill off a market for physical, when it's always going to be in demand? You can argue your ass off what this level of demand will be, and :o will it be like DVD the now?! Who knows, but one thing im sure about IMO is the demand will not be reaching such a low level in 2012, that physical actually has to be disabandoned.

People in here are talking as if when 2012 comes, absolutely nothing physical will be around. That IMO is absolutely ludicrous.

I really sincerely hope we don't go there, not for a long time anyway. I want to use digital distribution and physical for MANY years to come, for personal reasons, gift reasons, amongst a list of other things.

Renting is pretty spot on digitally distributed (still not for everyone though), but for classic films and stuff I rate highly, I like owning my own copy physically.

Owning 2 HDTVs in my house now, HD is prioritised when possible for sought after content. No one in my house likes watching in SD now. Obvious there is still a balance to price/HD, and no, not EVERYTHING is bought in HD due to DVD prices being so low.

High Definition is just a progression in quality from Standard Definition - It always makes me confused as hell when you get people who oppose a future of better quality.

Price is irrelevant to actually oppose the future of HD, as every normal headed person knows price always comes down on technology. What you're really opposing is joining the HD bandwagon when it is still rather expensive, or because you don't own an HD output device in your house.

Those are legit reasons IMO, but to just run around saying "down with HD" for no real reason, puzzles me haha.

Edited September 9, 2008 by Audioboxer

[Boz]

You make it sound like your opinion is the only one that counts. Why discount what others think?

Not at all.. where did I force my opinion on anyone? How he did as if I should just accept what he THINKS is reality and you too.

I think you are overstating your 'facts'. From what I have read, only one suit at Sony has said anything remotely close to what you claim, yet oddly enough, what he ACTUALLY said is not even close to what you claim. His quote:

How can I overstate facts. I just point out to what is being said it's that other people have issues with THAT not me.

And you are right.. I don't know why you mean about my statement being false. The Sony guy YOU QUOTED says:

"And (Blu-ray) may not turn over, it may not penetrate to the same extent, because (DVD) was such a big medium change from tape. But I see it being the major format."

It's very obvious what the person says here. I'm not sure why you are telling me how I spread misinformation. It's right there, black and white.

So I think it's safe to say that your claim of 'Sony themselves said that at this point it is most likely that Blu-Ray won't replace DVD' is entirely false. Sony has stated they look toward 2011 for Blu to overtake DVD.

Again, Sony can hope and if I follow logic that PeterTHX used in this thread Asia Pacific Sony representative is irrelevant. :)

But seriously, there is absolutely ZERO chance they will do it. That's 3 years and their market share is not expanding at a pace where you can even be considering this. ABI Research and Forrester Research point out to a slew of problems and say that MAYBE Blu-Ray might become mainstream format by 2013.

If you count that Samsung guy says that Blu-Ray will be replaced by 2013, this pretty much logically means that Blu-Ray won't even get a chance to go mainstream.

It's become quite apparent that your reality is quite different than what is actually happening. Blu's market share been anywhere from 6% (week ending Aug 24) to 12% (week ending July 13), however it usually hovers around the 8-9% mark. These numbers are from Nielsen VideoScan, which is pretty much the standard when it comes to video market share. I'm just curious...where do you get your numbers?

Exactly and I track those numbers more then you would think. The Blu-Ray sales are HORRIBLE.. that latest week was around $8m in sales for ALL Blu-Rays.. the second worst week after the week before that fell to $6m.. the numbers are back to the beginning of the year levels. How anyone can see this as progress I have no clue.. Since I work in entertainment industry I am also pretty informed on why studios release only crap movies on Blu-Ray for the most part and only really release the blockbusters and new movies that are up to date. You will simply not see old DVD catalog movies on Blu-Ray for the most part only the ones they deem profitable.

From what I have read and I have to agree, is that the future is a proliferation of formats; VOD, BD, downloads, streaming, etc. It would seem that even Sony understands this. BD will be a huge part of this as it provides the most profit and gives us the best quality. That's what some people care about.

Exactly and these people are called audio and videophiles and is a niche audience. Blu-Ray's quality will be matched by Digital Downloads within years anyways - it's almost very close now Vudu has amazingly cool 1080p digital download service with only thing being DD+ audio which is totally fine with everything. For anyone to even hear to difference between DD+ and TrueHD or uncompressed audio you need to spend thousands and thousands of dollars only on your sound system. Something that will always be niche.

However there are others that don't want to spend the money on a player/discs and prefer to rent/purchase via Xbox360, iTunes, Netflix, etc. Then we have VOD in 1080p coming from Dish and Directv, however it will not be Blu quality.

I'm really sick and tired of people saying it's not Blu quality.. what does that mean? You WILL NOT SEE A DIFFERENCE between 720p HD and 1080p HD footage on displays lesser then 55". 1080p is hype that was made to charge consumers for more money because less then 1% of consumers have TVs greater then 55" in their homes. If you do research you will understand. Many recognized experts (including CNET senior editors and a few others) have already noted that it's almost indistinguishable.. So when you visually can't really see the difference or the difference is less then a few percent, what exactly is so advanced in quality that you need to pay more for Blu-Ray? It's nonsense and btw whoever says they can see the difference are probably the same people who test positive on placebo tests. It's what you WANT to believe not what you actually see. Go to your local electronics store and look at the footage on a Plasma that's 720p and a plasma that is 1080p playing a Blu-Ray movie. There's ZERO difference.

We are a LONG way from that type of quality being delivered by any other medium. Lastly, there are too many different personal preferences to loudly proclaim that Blu-Ray will be gone by 2012. Samsung has long had their money invested in OLED, so of course they will push that. Whether this Samsung fella is just trying to push attention to his tech or he's simply a buffoon, it's anyone's guess. However with technology advancing quickly, Blu prices WILL drop significantly in the next year or two.

RIght.. anyone who raises the same point I agree with in general and when it's starting to get more and more obvious they are immediately dismissed as buffoon. LOL..

Exactly, Blu-Ray doesn't have a chance in mainstream and taking over as the main format because this is not 1997. There are many different preferences, people prefer to rent more then they prefer to own, people are more tech savvy, they like to download and convenience of Netflix from the couch over going to the blockbuster or waiting 2 days to get a movie in the mail, more and more companies are including digital downloads capabilities in their own devices (read new LG player with Netflix, XBL with Netflix, PS3 with downloads, Sony TVs, Internet TV, Home Servers etc with download capability without the need for any other device pretty much etc etc) and of course, on top of that A HUGE percentage of people are simply satisfied with DVD unlike the situation was with VHS. Thats' the REALITY you live in.

However with technology advancing quickly, Blu prices WILL drop significantly in the next year or two.

Again, you say this with zero backing up or any business logic. Do you even understand HOW prices drop. They don't just drop mysteriously. There are 2 ways prices drop. One is increased competition (where companies are willingly losing money to compete and gain marketshare) which we already see is not really happening between vendors, they seem to be all working together to rip consumers off for as much as you can (look at HDTV prices for example - almost 7-8 years and they are STILL expensive for a lot of people).

Vizio is the only company trying to make waves and the MPEG2 cartel, btw, consisted of the same BDA members is suing them and trying to close them down because they are trying to lower the prices and increase quality. So competition more or less is something you shouldn't really count on when they all strive to keep the prices high not low. Second way to lower prices is mass production. Of course this is really the problem, because people are not buying Blu-Ray enthusiastically so prices will go down, sure, but the process will last a while..

Blu-Ray doesn't have time. 2-3 years from now, when Blu-Ray finally becomes affordable for mainstream audience there will be so many other choices in content delivery that the market will be so watered down that nobody will even use optical media, again, with possibility of a few like you who really have to have a movie in the hand to put on a shelf, most people will be fine having the movies they want in the cloud.

Edited September 9, 2008 by Boz

[Boz]

In 2012 digital and physical will exist, I'm 99.9% certain. Just like physical and digital music coincides together.

Why kill off a market for physical, when it's always going to be in demand? You can argue your ass off what this level of demand will be, and :o will it be like DVD the now?! Who knows, but one thing im sure about IMO is the demand will not be reaching such a low level in 2012, that physical actually has to be disabandoned.

People in here are talking as if when 2012 comes, absolutely nothing physical will be around. That IMO is absolutely ludicrous.

I really sincerely hope we don't go there, not for a long time anyway. I want to use digital distribution and physical for MANY years to come, for personal reasons, gift reasons, amongst a list of other things.

Renting is pretty spot on digitally distributed (still not for everyone though), but for classic films and stuff I rate highly, I like owning my own copy physically.

Owning 2 HDTVs in my house now, HD is prioritised when possible for sought after content. No one in my house likes watching in SD now. Obvious there is still a balance to price/HD, and no, not EVERYTHING is bought in HD due to DVD prices being so low.

High Definition is just a progression in quality from Standard Definition - It always makes me confused as hell when you get people who oppose a future of better quality.

Price is irrelevant to actually oppose the future of HD, as every normal headed person knows price always comes down on technology. What you're really opposing is joining the HD bandwagon when it is still rather expensive, or because you don't own an HD output device in your house.

Those are legit reasons IMO, but to just run around saying "down with HD" for no real reason, puzzles me haha.

I agree to a large extent what you say here.. and nobody is saying "down with HD". The point I'm trying to make is with Blu-ray.. Optical media might be still alive by 2012 but the demand will rapidly drop because of other more convenient delivery methods IMO. It's technological progression and it will most likely be all HD since even today we have quite a bit of HD delivered via alternative non-optical media.

I think that by 2012 all the flaws of digital will be ironed out and even though optical might exists I see more people switching directly to digital downloads and alternative media from DVD then buying a Blu-Ray player.

What COULD save Blu-Ray sales is if more and more companies included digital downloads capabilities in their Blu-Ray players like LG does now with their latest device. Now then, people would probably get a device that would give them pretty much all in one but they would still most likely use digital download aspect of their devices over Blu-Ray ones and it would definitely make sense.

I think, the more technology merges the easier it will be for consumers to really see how little difference there is between 720p HD, 1080p HD, digital download HD, HD VOD etc etc... the quality is excellent on all of them and if the people are satisfied with DVD quality today, imagine how little difference it will be to them comparing 720p to 1080p.

Edited September 9, 2008 by Boz

[soniqstylz]

Welcome back, Boz. Wasn't the same around here without you.

Lulz.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

I agree to a large extent what you say here.. and nobody is saying "down with HD". The point I'm trying to make is with Blu-ray.. Optical media might be still alive by 2012 but the demand will rapidly drop because of other more convenient delivery methods IMO. It's technological progression and it will most likely be all HD since even today we have quite a bit of HD delivered via alternative non-optical media.

I think that by 2012 all the flaws of digital will be ironed out and even though optical might exists I see more people switching directly to digital downloads and alternative media from DVD then buying a Blu-Ray player.

What COULD save Blu-Ray sales is if more and more companies included digital downloads capabilities in their Blu-Ray players like LG does now with their latest device. Now then, people would probably get a device that would give them pretty much all in one but they would still most likely use digital download aspect of their devices over Blu-Ray ones and it would definitely make sense.

The more technology merges the easier it will be for consumers to really see how little difference there is between 720p HD, 1080p HD, digital download HD, HD VOD etc etc... the quality is excellent on all of them and if the people are satisfied with DVD quality today, imagine how little difference it will be to them comparing 720p to 1080p.

Which yeah will be true for a lot of people not clued up/not caring, but I don't see how this relates directly to sales of physical/digital.

As for BR, I don't really see how it's ever going to need "saving" either. There are no physical competitors, that pretty much means as long as there is people wanting to buy physical HD, they'll only be buying BR.

It's competition isn't in the same market in the sense that there are now no direct replicated products. DVD is SD, and digital distribution isn't physical.

Both are competitors for sure, yes, but I think anyone in here will see what I'm saying in terms of there being no physical HD competition at all any more.

We're all at the mercy of prices tumbling now, that's all. Or for a small percentage of people with the bandwith to spare, they're at a crossroads now where they can choose

Digital only

Digital and Physical

or just remain Physical only

Who knows what the majority will choose in that position, to hard to tell this early I think when HD in general is still quite new, and the branching categories of HD, physical (BR) and digital distribution are still new, at least to a lot of people.

Edited September 9, 2008 by Audioboxer

[Boz]

Which yeah will be true for a lot of people not clued up/not caring, but I don't see how this relates directly to sales of physical/digital.

As for BR, I don't really see how it's ever going to need "saving" either. There are no physical competitors, that pretty much means as long as there is people wanting to buy physical HD, they'll only be buying BR.

It's competition isn't in the same market in the sense that there are now no direct replicated products. DVD is SD, and digital distribution isn't physical.

Both are competitors for sure, yes, but I think anyone in here will see what I'm saying in terms of there being no physical HD competition at all any more.

We're all at the mercy of prices tumbling now, that's all. Or for a small percentage of people with the bandwith to spare, they're at a crossroads now where they can choose

Digital only

Digital and Physical

or just remain Physical only

Who knows what the majority will choose in that position, to hard to tell this early I think when HD in general is still quite new, and the branching categories of HD, physical (BR) and digital distribution are still new, at least to a lot of people.

I think you are not taking in consideration that a lot of people actually loves digital downloads and has no need for physical copies of their movies. I would say that trend increases at a rapid rate and one of the major reasons why studios needed to do something and limit number of discs sold to rental chains. People just don't care to own anymore IMO.

Secondly, I think the flaw in your logic is that you look at physical as "OPTICAL MEDIA" only. Physical media WILL exists most likely for a long time but OPTICAL MEDIA is the one that will go away. It's highly inefficient, it's slow, limited rewritability etc etc.

The future will be digital downloads, flash memory, SSD drives (over the long run), hard drives working with digital downloads. New technologies like wireless USB, wireless HD and similar make sure that connection with these devices will be flawless and much faster and optimal then optical ever was. We are already here with that, it's just that in the next couple of years I think it will be adopted by mainstream and all CE companies, whether they like it or not will have to adopt as they already are.

Apple for example, usually has a good hunch for the future. Why do you think they completely took out DVD drive and made Macbook Air as it is? It is a testament to what is to come within 2-3 years. They are not stupid. Why do you think they are not rushing to integrate Blu-Ray in their machines too? It all has very much business sense.

[Coldgunner]

I don't think DD will catch on for some time, I do however think they can easily co-exist. As already demonstrated by this thread, some only buy, some rent and some do both. There is enough marketshare for both.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Apple for example, usually has a good hunch for the future. Why do you think they completely took out DVD drive and made Macbook Air as it is? It is a testament to what is to come within 2-3 years. They are not stupid. Why do you think they are not rushing to integrate Blu-Ray in their machines too? It all has very much business sense.

That was like the worst decision ever.

The MacBook Air is in no way the idea of a mainstream laptop, it was IMO a prototype, one which sacrificed a hell of a lot of features just to be able to claim it's the thinnest.

Laptops ain't ditching DVD drives any time soon permanently, and as BR prices drop you'll have BR drives put into the more expensive laptops first, then it will trickle down to them being in every laptop like DVD.

I don't think DD will catch on for some time, I do however think they can easily co-exist. As already demonstrated by this thread, some only buy, some rent and some do both. There is enough marketshare for both.

Totally agree with this.

Not really got much else to say on everything.

I personally want to both own physically and digitally basically for the foreseeable future.

[Coldgunner]

Totally agree with this.

Not really got much else to say on everything.

Exactly, arguments like this is purely academic, we should vote with our wallets and see how it pans out.

Although having a digital version of a film on the disc that is psp ready is a damn good idea.

[Boz]

Exactly, arguments like this is purely academic, we should vote with our wallets and see how it pans out.

Although having a digital version of a film on the disc that is psp ready is a damn good idea.

Tell me .. how are you going to watch your Blu-Ray disc on other TVs you might have in the house?

You see... that's where convenience and "wallet" comes into play. Digital media you can stream independently around the house. With new models they actually streaming capabilities in them and you have one centralized location for your own content you can stream?

Do you see the flaw of optical media? You have to buy a player for each room if you want to play it and since you are breaking the law by ripping a movie (not to mention that a bunch of people simply doesn't even bother with that) the future undoubtably lies in digital downloads just for the flexibility if nothing else.

[Boz]

-- double click post - please delete --

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Tell me .. how are you going to watch your Blu-Ray disc on other TVs you might have in the house?

You see... that's where convenience and "wallet" comes into play. Digital media you can stream independently around the house. With new models they actually streaming capabilities in them and you have one centralized location for your own content you can stream?

Do you see the flaw of optical media? You have to buy a player for each room if you want to play it and since you are breaking the law by ripping a movie (not to mention that a bunch of people simply doesn't even bother with that) the future undoubtably lies in digital downloads just for the flexibility if nothing else.

When player prices come down, and BR is integrated into just about everything like DVD, there's your solution to watching in multiple rooms.

As it stands just now with HDTV prices, I'd bet most people will only have 1 HDTV/HD movie player. I have two HDTVs in my house currently, but one was funded totally out of my pocket for myself. We only have 1 main family HDTV.

There's much more technology savyness required to stream as well, than popping a disc in a player.

What happens when you go round to your friends/away from your house as well? DRM usually causes headaches there. Physical doesn't.

Pluses and minuses for both, both of which people will want to take advantage of.

Edited September 9, 2008 by Audioboxer