Samsung: Blu-Ray gone by 2012

[Boz]

When player prices come down, and BR is integrated into just about everything like DVD, there's your solution to watching in multiple rooms.

As It stands just now with HDTV prices, most people will only have 1 HDTV.

There's much more technology savyness required to stream as well, than popping a disc in a player.

What does that mean? Blu-Ray prices will never or won't in general reach prices of DVDs .. people have hard time getting one.. little less 2 or more for each room..

And it's irrelevant that a lot of people have 1 TV.. a lot have 2 or 3.. kids room, bedroom, living room.. they might be smaller TVs but there's plenty of people..

A response to buy multiple players is EXACTLY why optical media is done.. nobody wants to buy several items anymore when they are offered one centralized solution for their streaming for much less money.

This is the advantage of digital. We are all switching to it and it's coming very soon. The prices are dropping, media center extenders are dropping, TVs have embedded streaming capabilities and downloads. It's all coming together and it's already here.. next 3-4 years it will just go mainstream..that's all it needs. I think the more people experience digital that will be the only way for them.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

What does that mean? Blu-Ray prices will never or won't in general reach prices of DVDs .. people have hard time getting one.. little less 2 or more for each room..

And it's irrelevant that a lot of people have 1 TV.. a lot have 2 or 3.. kids room, bedroom, living room.. they might be smaller TVs but there's plenty of people..

A response to buy multiple players is EXACTLY why optical media is done.. nobody wants to buy several items anymore when they are offered one centralized solution for their streaming for much less money.

This is the advantage of digital. We are all switching to it and it's coming very soon. The prices are dropping, media center extenders are dropping, TVs have embedded streaming capabilities and downloads. It's all coming together and it's already here.. next 3-4 years it will just go mainstream..that's all it needs. I think the more people experience digital that will be the only way for them.

There's where I stop.

How you know that Boz blows my mind :blink:

I'll stick to logic with technology, it all comes down in price and near the end of it's life cycle hits very lows as new technology comes into replace it. Just like how you can buy DVDs dirt cheap right now. SD whether or not anyone likes it, is nearing the end of it's life in terms of technology progression. Of course it will exist for goodness knows how many years to come, your dvds don't expire :laugh:

And it's irrelevant that a lot of people have 1 TV.. a lot have 2 or 3.. kids room, bedroom, living room.. they might be smaller TVs but there's plenty of people..

Fair enough, but you always go on about how on small TVs upscaled DVDs look as good as HD, so the kids room TV is probably not going to be high on the roster for going to Blu Ray any time soon - Meaning when it probably does go HD, it'll be in quite a few years time, and guess what? Prices will be much more affordable in a few years.

Which is what I was saying above. People will upgrade to new technology a step at a time. I seriously doubt multi-tv owners are going to go out and buy 2/3/4/5+ HDTVs at once, and buy the respective amount of HD players. New technology is too expensive for the majority of people to upgrade 1 TV, let alone 4.

I have 2 HDTVs in my house, alongside 3/4 SDTVs still. The SDTVs are in places like the kitchen/spare room and a bedroom. Places which don't need to be rushed to new technology until it's affordable to have HD in every room.

Edited September 9, 2008 by Audioboxer

[Boz]

Which is what I was saying above. People will upgrade to new technology a step at a time. I seriously doubt multi-tv owners are going to go out and buy 2/3/4/5+ HDTVs at once, and buy the respective amount of HD players. New technology is too expensive for the majority of people to upgrade 1 TV, let alone 4.

That's what I'm trying to point out here. People already have digital download capabilities. They have PCs or Macs or whatever that allows them with minimal investments to migrate to downloads. I know plenty of people who are totally non-tech people but they use Netflix online to watch movies and they use their PC.

When you have high prices and people can use something with the things they've already spent money on, they'll most likely use what they already have then buy new stuff.

Explosion of digital download services including Sony one is very telling of what and where we are all going IMO.

[Coldgunner]

But for you to play DD, you need a player just as much as an optical disc needs its drive.

[sn00pie]

The way I see it is quite simple. The change from VHS to DVD was from one type of format to another type of format, even from a physical format viewpoint. The change from DVD to BD, is pretty much the same, its still a disc, just with more space.

That's why I now think that the real format transition of the future may be digital downloads because DVD caught on because it was quite radically different then VHS. While BD is the same as DVD, digital downloads could be that transition that more consumers go for.

VHS > DVD > No physical disc - digital downloads

With the way people have adapted to downloading music off stores like iTunes, its quite obvious that people are willing to leave behind physical discs in favour of downloading there music digitally and then being able to put it on a disc if they want to. If consumers can adapt from CD discs to downloading digitally, why can't they do the same for movies?

No doubt, that there's still alot of un-answered questions like how would you play your downloads on your TV, or what if you don't have an internet connection, but yeah the possibilities are definitely there. Sony's PSN is a great example of a slow transition to digital downloads. We can pretty much purchase games online now, and don't have a physical disc, yes we still have to buy the console to play it on, but you get my drift. :p

Bluray isn't garbage, but it just hasn't caught on fire as I had expected (and hoped).

[Amodin]

Going with how technology has been in the past few years, I believe that CD-DVD technology will be gone completely within 5-10 years, and it will be replaced with solid-state completely. Get rid of moving parts. It's slow, and people with computers do not like slow, no matter how fast it is. ;)

Floppy disks were first, and now HDDs. Next up - the disappearance of CD-DVD and it will be completely streamed or downloadable to Solid State technology.

Things like Internet TV are appearing/have appeared. They just aren't widespread because people haven't really and truly found out about them yet.

[Boz]

The way I see it is quite simple. The change from VHS to DVD was from one type of format to another type of format, even from a physical format viewpoint. The change from DVD to BD, is pretty much the same, its still a disc, just with more space.

That's why I now think that the real format transition of the future may be digital downloads because DVD caught on because it was quite radically different then VHS. While BD is the same as DVD, digital downloads could be that transition that more consumers go for.

VHS > DVD > No physical disc - digital downloads

With the way people have adapted to downloading music off stores like iTunes, its quite obvious that people are willing to leave behind physical discs in favour of downloading there music digitally and then being able to put it on a disc if they want to. If consumers can adapt from CD discs to downloading digitally, why can't they do the same for movies?

Exactly!

Apple has like 80-90% of mp3 market because they pioneered digital downloads with iTunes. Just look what happened afterwards. Amazon Unbox, Yahoo also has some similar thing too, Netflix, Xbox Live, PSN store etc etc.. it's undoubtably the next logical step that people actually want.

[Coldgunner]

Music is a much more portable media 'type', and benefits from smaller physical storage space. Video is a much more 'static'. By that I mean you don't walk to work watching a video, or drive etc. Quality and features wins out more often than portability.

[Sethos]

Let's not forget Steam, EA Digital Store and all those smaller companies offering digital game downloads as well.

Digital Downloads are now, like it or not.

[Coldgunner]

Exactly!

Apple has like 80-90% of mp3 market because they pioneered digital downloads with iTunes. Just look what happened afterwards. Amazon Unbox, Yahoo also has some similar thing too, Netflix, Xbox Live, PSN store etc etc.. it's undoubtably the next logical step that people actually want.

The optical discs require a straightforward player that adheres to the standard.

1 download service is not gonna offer every movie you want. This means you'll need 2 or more services, which may have incompatible codecs. A unit being able to play such content is going to be quite expensive. for it to be playable you need a unit with the ability to play will require something that is near enough a PC.

If user x downloads a movie then wants to take it to a user y, they have to have compatible players which will not adhere to a strict standard.

I'm not to keen on having a htpc under each tv, or having to remember to boot up a server every time. On the other hand its not exactly environmentally friendly to leave a server running. using DD around the home requires some kind of network infrastructure in your home that the masses often do not understand.

And then there is the geniuses who put drm on downloads to prevent all but one device playing them.

Tryed and explain codecs to Joe Bloggs? Exactly, there'll be a lot of calls to tech support on why their streaming device won't play a certain file.

Edited September 9, 2008 by Coldgunner

[kak]

I don't see why this topic is 9 pages long. Blu-Ray is not dead and digital downloads (for video) are no where near mainstream. If you guys are going to argue that Blu-Ray isn't mainstream around 5% (considering the format war ended not long ago, that isn't bad), you can hardly say that digital downloads are the way of the future since they hold what, a whopping <1% so far?

I won't be waiting for your response, Boz. For some reason or another, you're extremely anti-BD and always want the next best thing even though BD isn't going anywhere any time soon. While Samsung fails to make a player that can compete with Sony's offerings [and slams the format at the same time due to their shortcomings with it], I'll enjoy my HDM on whatever medium I can get it. BD is the most efficient method right now as movies run around 40GB. When lossless audio becomes smaller in size due to more efficient codecs and 1080p video can be delivered under 10gb on average, you let me know.

[Cormier6083]

One argument I saw through this whole mess is:

"you'll have to buy a player for each room"

So you have a DVD player in each room? That must have cost you a fortune. :rolleyes:

"...DVD's are cheaper"

and I also remember

"HD-DVD is based off of DVD technology, that's why it's cheaper"

and there is only one reason why it's cheaper. Because it's older and the technology is dirt cheap. So, what's the problem with Blu-Ray? You'll have to buy a new player for each room. Well, DVD wasn't very cheap in it's first years, but you had to buy a new player for each room. So what's the point? Blu-Ray, in time, will be just as cheap. Oh, I remember, Blu-Ray is developed by Sony,

THATS why Blu-Ray is destined to die in 2012.

Not only that, but most American's don't have HDTV sets. That's why the DTV converter box is a big deal these days. And when was HDTV introduced? A long time ago. So if most Americans don't have an HDTV set, what make you think that digital downloads, the most sophisticated distribution technology available, is going to overtake a physical format? We're not that close to cloud computing yet.

[Boz]

1 download service is not gonna offer every movie you want

This is where I think you are very wrong. Blu-Ray won't have every movie because it requires significant resources to replicate, and market those movies not to mention regional coding or the ability to get french movies for example that I want because of it. Digital downloads is much convenient delivery so much that studio only needs to re-encode the movie or make a digital transfer and export to any service or digital service or multiple providers (XBL, PSN, Hulu, VOD or whatever). This applies to older movies too that are either too costly to manufacture or simply won't make as much money to cover the costs of publishing on Blu-Ray. I have heard this from the mouth of one of the directors of home entertainment division of one major studio that is pretty close to BDA.

If anything you will not see ALL movies on Blu-Ray and you actually might see all movies in digital form.

And who says you won't have all movies? iTunes already has all studios. XBL and Vudu and other services have pretty much access to all studios as well. Of course, Sony again is the one who is trying to kill off real progress in technology because they own studios and will again try to sabotage consumers to get something that IS TRULY next gen by trying to limit services to get their movies in order to protect Blu-ray but essentially they will have to support digital downloads just like we can see they were forced with PSN.

All movies will be available on any service because it's not a problem for a studio to release all of them with the same movie. Just different encodes or containers if they are using different ones. In general encodes are similar everywhere or will be.. it's either going to be VC1 or AVC and it's really not a problem because most digital players and media extenders along with PCs read all this without problems.

[Coldgunner]

You missed the point, theres no guarantee of cross compatibility between devices.

[Boz]

I don't see why this topic is 9 pages long. Blu-Ray is not dead and digital downloads (for video) are no where near mainstream. If you guys are going to argue that Blu-Ray isn't mainstream around 5% (considering the format war ended not long ago, that isn't bad), you can hardly say that digital downloads are the way of the future since they hold what, a whopping <1% so far?

I won't be waiting for your response, Boz. For some reason or another, you're extremely anti-BD and always want the next best thing even though BD isn't going anywhere any time soon. While Samsung fails to make a player that can compete with Sony's offerings [and slams the format at the same time due to their shortcomings with it], I'll enjoy my HDM on whatever medium I can get it. BD is the most efficient method right now as movies run around 40GB. When lossless audio becomes smaller in size due to more efficient codecs and 1080p video can be delivered under 10gb on average, you let me know.

First of all provide your number for 5% for Blu-Ray PLEEEEEEASE!!! Nonsense.. Blu-Ray is barely at 2-3% of the MARKET. The top 20 disc revenue means zero when the number of units is what counts. Typical BDA BS lies and spins to try to portrait Blu-Ray in a good shape when it's not.

I want the next best thing and yes digital downloads and other types of media are the next best thing. Optical is history they are just fighting so hard not to lose that revenue stream and CE companies are fighting to preserve their old way of doing things because it requires money for them to switch to digital devices and essentially lose optical completely. They still produce VHS for Christ Sake. That shows how willing they really are to push old ass technologies to make a buck. Thankfully the progress is getting out of their hands.

BD is currently the highest quality medium, but this doesn't mean anything really because the movie I watch in 1080p in HD with DD+ on Vudu is so close to Blu-ray quality that it is completely indistinguishable and I simply cannot see ANYONE mainstream minding either. And that's today.. 3-5 years from now.. WHOOOHOOO who knows where we'll be technologically but we sure ain't going to be pushing optical media and Blu-Ray.

Losless audio means nothing to 99% of people and I don't care really what you want. I care that we get great sound that everyone enjoys, not only a few with $10k speakers and $2000 recievers and when majority of people have 55"+ HDTVs then I will say that 1080p is the ONLY way to go because you do lose quality if you watch 720p footage on TVs that size and above. For 99% of people 720p HD looks the same as 1080p on their TVs. I have already shown that with screenshots. The only real quality loss you will experience in 720p on a huge ass screen that maybe 1% of consumers have.

And for your record.. an average movie in 1080p is not 40gb.. it's between 15-25gb.. when converted to something more optimized you can indeed push it down to a bit higher compession but also to 720p HD without any significant loss in quality. At least not noticeable to the viewer. I have done so many times. I do encode my movies to h.264 1080p with DD+ and they hover around 10gb or so..

[Coldgunner]

Well, you're more than welcome to state your sources too.

[Boz]

You missed the point, theres no guarantee of cross compatibility between devices.

There's no guarantee that all your movies will work the same on different Blu-Ray player depending if it's Profile 1.0, 1.1, 2.0.

With digital.. a file is a file.. if a device supports it's playback it will play. Since mostly all of them are using some standard, be it h.264 or VC1 or WMV or DivX or whatever.. computer or console or extender will read it.

But that's not even a point.. we are talking about renting things..that's the whole point.. people don't want to own anymore IMO from what I've seen. They simply don't want to stack discs they end up selling at ridiculous costs or collect dust. It's reality, this is why Netflix propelled in business incredibly fast.

[Coldgunner]

There's no guarantee that all your movies will work the same on different Blu-Ray player depending if it's Profile 1.0, 1.1, 2.0.

facepalm.jpg

I'm not going over that one again!

How can you tell what people want anyway? you are not everyone.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

People have figures to try and speculate trends on, but no one in here has any source that will 100% validate a claim of Blu Ray being gone by 2012.

Not even Samsung themselves have a flying clue...

"I think it [blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10"

I think?

There we go.

Now for another 10 pages

[Boz]

Well, you're more than welcome to state your sources too.

The market share and revenue for Blu-ray Disc, as reported by Home Media Magazine, were down for the week ending August 10th.

Perhaps due to no new strong strong performing titles, the market share was back down to 7% for the top 20 titles and the revenues were off 26.88% to $6.89M.

http://www.blu-raystats.com/NewsLog/2008/0...ng-august-10th/

That's 7% for the TOP 20 TITLES sold on Blu-Ray and DVD and it's REVENUE not unit sales. With numbers this weak in top 20 REVENUE the unit sales are down right miserable. 5% is maybe in some fairy-tale where Blu-Ray fanboys dream about it's success. The REAL numbers for Blu-Ray in sales units is so low that they don't want to publish it. Considering that average Blu-Ray movie is 2-3 times more expensive then DVD.. even if revenue of Blu-Ray was 7% of ALL DVDs sold, they would still have 2-3 less units sold and that would make it at about 2-3% in unit sales. But considering that they are counting only top 20 titles (let's not forget millions and millions of other units sold on DVD) Blu-Ray's unit sales market share is laughably low. I think would be SURPRISED if they were actually 2% unit sales.

Also interesting article that pretty much agrees with me and others here who support the notion that digital downloads are the way to go:

http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/07/01...-new-format-war

[DrCheese]

Seriously. Why do you keep pushing DD when people have said zillions of times over that until EVERYONE has decent NONCAPPED Internet connections that is accessible on every TV in their houses then it's a non starter.

I sometimes wish I could see into some alternative universe in which HD-DVD won, just so I could see if you would still be proclaiming physical media dead. Based on previous posts here before HD-DVD lost and elsewhere on the internet, I'd guess that would be highly unlikely.

There's no guarantee that all your movies will work the same on different Blu-Ray player depending if it's Profile 1.0, 1.1, 2.0.

:rolleyes: The actual movie will run perfectly fine on any player. Quit spreading FUD. The majority of new players are 2.0 compatible anyway now so this is moot.

[kak]

First of all provide your number for 5% for Blu-Ray PLEEEEEEASE!!! Nonsense.. Blu-Ray is barely at 2-3% of the MARKET. The top 20 disc revenue means zero when the number of units is what counts. Typical BDA BS lies and spins to try to portrait Blu-Ray in a good shape when it's not.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/ho...TB/index.php#/4

6% really.

I want the next best thing and yes digital downloads and other types of media are the next best thing. Optical is history they are just fighting so hard not to lose that revenue stream and CE companies are fighting to preserve their old way of doing things because it requires money for them to switch to digital devices and essentially lose optical completely. They still produce VHS for Christ Sake. That shows how willing they really are to push old ass technologies to make a buck. Thankfully the progress is getting out of their hands.

Show me a new movie on VHS, lol. Optical rules right now. It is the cheapest solution [especially now that broadband is being put at a premium]. If optical were history, we wouldn't be buying it now, would we? But that won't fit your argument.

BD is currently the highest quality medium, but this doesn't mean anything really because the movie I watch in 1080p in HD with DD+ on Vudu is so close to Blu-ray quality that it is completely indistinguishable and I simply cannot see ANYONE mainstream minding either. And that's today.. 3-5 years from now.. WHOOOHOOO who knows where we'll be technologically but we sure ain't going to be pushing optical media and Blu-Ray.

Straight from the Vudu site - the unit is $299. How is that any different from a BD player? It gets even better - rental prices are no better than physical copies [which as you said above are superior] and owning rights aren't discounted either. So you're paying around the same and getting less. Wow, that makes sense.

Losless audio means nothing to 99% of people and I don't care really what you want. I care that we get great sound that everyone enjoys, not only a few with $10k speakers and $2000 recievers and when majority of people have 55"+ HDTVs then I will say that 1080p is the ONLY way to go because you do lose quality if you watch 720p footage on TVs that size and above. For 99% of people 720p HD looks the same as 1080p on their TVs. I have already shown that with screenshots. The only real quality loss you will experience in 720p on a huge ass screen that maybe 1% of consumers have.

I'll pull one of your tricks - PROOF? Sources? Anything?! A litmus test on Neowin is hardly consensus.

And for your record.. an average movie in 1080p is not 40gb.. it's between 15-25gb.. when converted to something more optimized you can indeed push it down to a bit higher compession but also to 720p HD without any significant loss in quality. At least not noticeable to the viewer. I have done so many times. I do encode my movies to h.264 1080p with DD+ and they hover around 10gb or so..

You apparently can't read. I know you can find 1080p encodes around 10-15gb. What you can't find are encodes with decent sound. They do not sound the same as they do on disc, sound system or not. Also, refer back to broadband coming at a premium now.

http://www.blu-raystats.com/NewsLog/2008/0...ng-august-10th/

That's 7% for the TOP 20 TITLES sold on Blu-Ray and DVD and it's REVENUE not unit sales. With numbers this weak in top 20 REVENUE the unit sales are down right miserable. 5% is maybe in some fairy-tale where Blu-Ray fanboys dream about it's success. The REAL numbers for Blu-Ray in sales units is so low that they don't want to publish it. Considering that average Blu-Ray movie is 2-3 times more expensive then DVD.. even if revenue of Blu-Ray was 7% of ALL DVDs sold, they would still have 2-3 less units sold and that would make it at about 2-3% in unit sales. But considering that they are counting only top 20 titles (let's not forget millions and millions of other units sold on DVD) Blu-Ray's unit sales market share is laughably low.

Also interesting article that pretty much agrees with me and others here who support the notion that digital downloads are the way to go:

http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/07/01...-new-format-war

So the statistics don't count simply because you don't agree with them and then you pull 2-3% right out of your head? Woah, you're good. Who needs proof when you can figure up everything yourself.

[Coldgunner]

not quite 2-3% eh?

[Gersson]

I think Blu-ray will still be around for a while because:

- 40GB is still a lot to download -- even with increased internet bandwith.

- Storing more than 2 dozen movies is a pain in the azz.

- Storage is shifting over to SSD which for the near future will be high $:GB

-Having a case is still mighty nice...for me anyway.

[Boz]

:rolleyes: The actual movie will run perfectly fine on any player. Quit spreading FUD. The majority of new players are 2.0 compatible anyway now so this is moot.

Absolutely not true. I have witnessed people coming to my Blockbuster store complaining that the Blu-ray movies they rented won't work on them that turned out because they had a standalone that didn't fully support features on the disc so the disc locked out.

Nobody is spreading FUD.. you are the one with ZERO support for what you are saying. The firmware updates companies release are exactly the reason for that but unfortunately not everyone has the know how to download firmware onto a disc and then flash the player so they end up with non-working disc.

And please stop talking about HD DVD.. your bitterness is unfounded. You can't blame HD DVD forever because Blu-Ray is not successful as you had hoped.