Time is running out for Blu ray format

[TheRealDave]

Time is running out for Blu-ray discs, the high definition (HD) format that are supposed to be replacing the DVD.

Despite the launch of new Blu-ray players and talk of rising sales at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, manufacturers know they are in a race to make a real impact on the market before the new kid on the block, downloading or streaming HD films directly from the internet, consigns the format to a footnote in video history.

Blu-ray discs have the same physical dimensions as a DVD, but provide better quality sound and pictures for HD movies, thanks to more expensive laser technology. They were launched nearly three years ago but only became the preferred medium after winning an HD format war a year ago.

Blu-ray has just had an impressive year of growth. Consumers are looking to take advantage of the rise of HD TV programming by broadcasters before the coming switch to digital TV and in the US they are buying more HD TV sets than standard definition sets.

At the Blu-ray Disc Association press conference at CES, chairman Andy Powers listed the US Blu-ray statistics: with more than 1,100 movie titles now available, 24.09 million discs were sold in 2008 compared to 5.67 million in 2007.

The Dark Knight batman movie was the standard bearer for the format, becoming the first million-plus seller on Blu-ray in America.

Sales of Blu-ray players are also climbing fast, helped by huge Christmas discounts in America which saw the cost of players drop below $200. Eight per cent of US household are now estimated to have Blu-ray hardware, including Sony's Playstation 3 consoles which can play the discs.

But the problem for Blu-ray is that these figures still mean that Blu-ray is a high-end niche product, bought mainly by early adopters who can afford to pay the higher prices of the discs and the players - still about three times the price of a DVD player.

Sales of DVDs are not being dented by sales of Blu-ray discs. In the UK, figures from the British Video Association reveal that the number of DVDs sold last year actually rose slightly by 1.9 per cent to 252.9 million at an average price of ?8.97. There were only 3.75 million Blu-ray discs sold in the year at an average price of ?19.29. The top-selling DVD Mamma Mia! The Movie shifted more than 5 million copies in just five weeks while Dark Knight sold only about 300,000 copies on Blu-ray.

Differentiation viewed as the single biggest problem for Blu-ray. People like DVDs and do not see Blu-ray as sufficiently better to make the jump to the new format. This is understandable. The leap from VHS to DVD was huge compared to the more subtle improvement in viewing experience offered by Blu-ray over DVD. What's more, consumers have been confused by the HD format war - many say they are still holding out for the battle to be settled - and others wrongly believe that you cannot play DVDs on a Blu-ray player. The switch has been further confused by the emergence of "upconverter" DVD players which improve the picture quality of ordinary DVDs to near HD quality.

Rob Enderle, principal analyst with the Enderle Group, a leading technology advisory company in the US, said that only after watching an upconverted DVD and a Blu-ray disc one after another could most people tell the difference. "Blu-ray is going to play a transition 'between' role - it can sustain the high end of the market but as soon as the flip comes to downloads or streaming - and I think that will be in the next couple of years - then it will not make any further progress. I am not convinced Blu-ray will ever go mainstream," he said. He fully expected Blu-ray to be the last physical movie format before digital downloading became the norm, he said.

Certainly there was more "noise" among the hundreds of thousands of attendees and exhibitors at CES about downloading and streaming TV programmes and movies than about Blu-ray. One of the biggest themes at the showcase of cutting edge consumer gadgets was how the big TV manufacturers like Samsung, Sony, Panasonic and others have signed up to a new system of widgets which allow users to access internet content including YouTube directly from their television sets. Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft, declared in his keynote speech that the border between TV and the internet was being dissolved.

As people get more comfortable with the idea of connecting their web experience and the TV, streaming TV programmes and movies onto the bigger screen rather than the laptop will become the norm, analysts say. The new wave of digital media services starting to flow into the living room was exemplified by the launch at CES of a new line of HD televisions from the Korean television maker LG Electronics that connect directly to the Internet with no set-top box required. The televisions will be able to play movies and television shows from online video-on-demand services, including Netflix.

Apple's online iTunes Store introduced high-definition movies a year ago and already has 600 titles available to rent or download. A similar Internet-connected box, Vudu, can access about 1,400 high-definition films. While both services remain niche products, supporters say the convenience of streaming and the rising acceptability of watching video content on the big screen will quickly force this into the mainstream. In the UK thanks to services such as BBC iPlayer and YouTube, Gartner, the technology analysts, predict that almost 20 million people will be subscribing to internet TV platforms by the end of this year, a rise of 64 per cent in 12 months.

The biggest obstacle to the wide adoption to video streaming, especially in the UK, is the lack of high-speed broadband in many homes. Millions of internet customers are getting less than half the broadband speed they are paying for, restricting their ability to download music, film and games, according to a report this week from Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. Slow internet speeds can cause streaming images to judder to a halt and make watching HD films unthinkable. It takes about eight hours to download HD-quality films over a normal internet connection of about two megabits (Mb) per second.

The recession, perversely, may be about to provide a solution to this - and hit the growth of Blu-ray twice over. Analysts expect that the lack of consumer spending power will hit sales of Blu-ray discs and players, despite the tumbling prices. The economic woes come at a crucial time for Blu-ray, three years after launch. DVD really took off after its launch in years four, five and six.

Spending on high-speed broadband infrastructure, making streaming of movies faster and much more inviting, is likely to be the second indirect consequence of the recession. Providing high-speed broadband for every American home is set to become one of the main planks in Barack Obama's economic rescue plan in the US. In the UK Gordon Brown has also talked about upgrading the country's ageing copper wire network and BT has proposed investing ?1.5 billion in a fibre-optic network to give 10 million households, or 40 per cent of the population, speeds of 40Mb to 60Mb by 2012.

Not that the Blu-ray backers are going to give up without a fight. The big manufacturers and studios have invested billions on the format.

They point out that a new feature of Blu-ray called BD Live (Blu-ray Disc Live), which lets people download additional material from the Internet and interact with friends in text chats that appear on the television while playing a movie, makes the format more attractive.

Many of the new Blu-ray players launched at CES have this internet access built in.

But perhaps the one thing that might just rescue Blu-ray in its make-or-break year is the preference of human beings to own things they can handle. For many people, having a movie in a physical format will always be more preferable than having it on the hard drive in the computer.

Mr Powers, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, said: "If you are going to own something, there is nothing better than a disc, what I call content real estate. I can put my Blu-ray disc on a shelf and watch it later. You can't do that with a download."

Source: http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/ne...icle5484923.ece

[ahhell]

"I can put my Blu-ray disc on a shelf and watch it later. You can't do that with a download."

I can watch many movies from my computer/XBox without having to get out of my chair. You can't do that with Blu-Ray.

[Lexcyn]

Pretty bold title. Download sales probably won't surpass Blu-ray sales for a few years at least. This is due to the lacking infrastructure out there to support broadband speeds to allow near instant downloads. The fact is, currently you have to spend way more than you should to get decent broadband speeds (ie: anything over 20mbps) ... so I can't see this taking off unless you see the ISPs doing major upgrades, or major price cuts to sustain such intensive bandwidth use.

So no ... I don't think Blu-ray has it's 'time running out'.

[cammy]

Nah, complete FUD.

Downloads are very convenient, BUT 20-50GB downloads (if you want premium quality HD video with 7.1 sound) are.

To be honest i think the whole Disc copy that comes with a "digital version" is probably the most ideal idea.

I don't think discs will stop after blu ray either, theres bound to be some other optical media afterwards, in about 5 years or so.

[TheRealDave]

Don't shoot the messenger! :p

We watch videos on youtube. wouldn't have happened 15 years ago.

[Doli]

"I can put my Blu-ray disc on a shelf and watch it later. You can't do that with a download."

I can watch many movies from my computer/XBox without having to get out of my chair. You can't do that with Blu-Ray.

Unless you rip the Blu-Ray disk to your hard drive.

[MightyJordan]

It's all FUD. Downloads won't surpass Blu-Rays until they can deliver movies at the same quality as Blu-Ray, and that won't happen for a good few years (outside of torrents).

It's all explained here, or for those who can't be bothered reading the article, here's the picture from the article that basically sums it up:

[t0mbi]

yeah maybe blu ray may die, but not in Australia were most of our broadband download limits are smaller than a blu ray movie lol..screw that physical copy all the way!

[Andrew Lyle Global Moderator]

Downloads will never become the best means for HD video, unless internet service providers fix the bandwidth problem.

Capping users because their servers are dated hardware, or not wanting to replace land lines (problems in Ontario) is preventing streaming from becoming the next best format.

However, I think physical media will always be here to stay

[thealexweb]

Blu-ray is desperately short on time if the recession doesn't start to turn round by Q3/Q4 2009 Blu-ray will flop. There just isn't enough time for it to take market share.

[FlibbyFlobby]

Blu-ray is desperately short on time if the recession doesn't start to turn round by Q3/Q4 2009 Blu-ray will flop. There just isn't enough time for it to take market share.

No it's not. Sales of Blu-Ray in Europe in general are very good and its outperforming DVD. The Dark Knight in particular has shifted well on Blu-Ray. Physical products aren't going to be surpassed by downloads any time soon, especially in the UK with our infrastructure and bandwidth caps.

On the subject of recession its Labour who can't seem balance the UK's books, and happily threw away ?12billion on an ineffective VAT cut. So much for being "uniquely placed" to deal with the "global economic crisis". Our recession problems are as much to do with the last 11 years as they are to do with the global situation.

[sn00pie]

The practicality of downloading and moving around files that are in excess of 30-40GB is going to be difficult. With a proper audio/video setup the difference between DVD and BD is huge. My BD library is growing every week because I love the theatre sound/picture at home.

[conan_2000]

Yeah, HD Downloads wion't takew over for a long time. I'm living in New Zealand at the moment and the broadband is in a much poorer state than the UK, most people have downlaod caps of about 10GB a month. I also like having the physical copy, downloads/streaming will never take over for me. Much like I'll probably never read an ebook!

[goji]

But the problem for Blu-ray is that these figures still mean that Blu-ray is a high-end niche product, bought mainly by early adopters who can afford to pay the higher prices of the discs and the players - still about three times the price of a DVD player.

Tell me something I don't know :laugh:

[mtrftw]

downloads will never succede if isps keep on capping

[Rappy Veteran]

Oh noes better sell my player :o :p

[the evn show]

It's all FUD. Downloads won't surpass Blu-Rays until they can deliver movies at the same quality as Blu-Ray, and that won't happen for a good few years (outside of torrents).

You seem to be under the impression that quality matters: the iTunes store has shown that people are willing to accept a reduced quality product (128-256k AAC vs 16-bit 44.k PCM-WAV) for connivence.

So long as streaming video content is "good enough" and more convenient than buying plastic circles (and I'm not sure how that will be measured by people like my parents, secretary, or other non-geeks) people will happily accept it instead of a superior quality product. For additional evidence see Beta v. VHS, or Audio, Cassette/8-track v Vinyl, Compact Disc v Mini disc, etc. While a higher quality product does have some advantages the market has show that it's not the most important trait, and it might not even be one of the top 5 considerations for many people.

There aren't many people around that think that digital-download isn't the future of content delivery, it's just a question of how quickly people will switch. iTunes may be the largest music retailer but downloaded music is still not the majority of content (yet). The infrastructure required for HD may not be in place in North America yet, but times change rapidly. 10-years ago most cities didn't have access to residential 1mb/s downstream connections: today 10x that is the norm and available bandwidth grows as quickly as processing performance does.

Blue ray probably isn't in danger of being obsoleted any time soon but I wouldn't be surprised to see it as the final (popular) physical distribution medium for video.

[Quillz]

You seem to be under the impression that quality matters: the iTunes store has shown that people are willing to accept a reduced quality product (128-256k AAC vs 16-bit 44.k PCM-WAV) for connivence.

The difference between movies and music, though, is that most people can't "hear" the difference between 128 kbps and 256 kbps. But most people can see the difference between various video qualities. And most people, I think, would choose high quality video (like Blu-ray) over lower-quality convenience (downloading.)

My conclusion: Blu-ray is here to stay until the next wave of medium is created.

[goji]

The difference between movies and music, though, is that most people can't "hear" the difference between 128 kbps and 256 kbps.

Bullocks. There was a time in US history where Americans prided themselves on Hi-Fi audio recording, production and audio tech. We were awesome 40 or so years ago, but that has changed.

You can hear the difference IF the audio is of great quality and your not playing it through your car stereo which is the typical means of audio reproduction in the states (or comparable quality).

There is a difference, but most would rather invest in a TV setup and not an audio one. Images can be seen, audio can be heard and felt :D

My conclusion: Blu-ray is here to stay until the next wave of medium is created.

For sure! However it doesn't mean its going to be very successful.

[perochan]

blu-ray is not gonna die. many ISPs are capping their bandwidth and dling HD movies are pain in the ass.

[DanManIt]

HD movies can be a hassle, but when they are compressed at 7GB it really isn't too bad. With bandwidth capping that changes everything though

[trek]

HD movies can be a hassle, but when they are compressed at 7GB it really isn't too bad. With bandwidth capping that changes everything though

You can definitely see the difference between a Blu-Ray and a 7GB MKV...

[Yusuf M. Veteran]

Downloadable HD content will never surpass Blu-ray so long as ISPs enforce outrageous monthly bandwidth limits. Yes, that was a long sentence but it had to be said (err.. typed).

[redeemed]

yeah maybe blu ray may die, but not in Australia were most of our broadband download limits are smaller than a blu ray movie lol..screw that physical copy all the way!

I reckon :hmmm: :crazy:

Oh, and QFT for Anaron's post above (which is kinda saying the same thing as t0mbi's).

[+Nik Louch Subscriber²]

Downloadable HD content will never surpass Blu-ray so long as ISPs enforce outrageous monthly bandwidth limits.

100% true. The technology is moving faster than the supporting industries.