Time is running out for Blu ray format

[Richard Hammond]

You can definitely see the difference between a Blu-Ray and a 7GB MKV...

Depends on how its encoded, i do my own owned Blu-Ray to 4-8Gb h264 MKV and playing them side by side on 42" tv the only time you can tell the difference is if you are inches from the screen and even then there is very little difference between them.

[Xerxes]

I can't see Blu-Ray going anywhere, here in Australia with our crippled internet (in terms of speed and been capped, yes there are some decent fast ISPs around but not everyone has access, my area 1.5Mbit is as fast as you can go, no support for ADSL2+ and cable is banned (serious!)) HD downloads are not appealing, firstly a couple of movies would exceed my download quota and I just don't have the HDD space. Blu-Ray is just more convenient for me.

[DrunknMunky Veteran]

100% true. The technology is moving faster than the supporting industries.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I know plenty of people who download blu ray films already without trouble (of course not legally, but it still shows its possible).

[leesmithg]

Nah, complete FUD.

Downloads are very convenient, BUT 20-50GB downloads (if you want premium quality HD video with 7.1 sound) are.

To be honest i think the whole Disc copy that comes with a "digital version" is probably the most ideal idea.

I don't think discs will stop after blu ray either, theres bound to be some other optical media afterwards, in about 5 years or so.

50GB download would take me a month.

I would also bust the 'fair usage' policy x10.

When HD and Blu-Ray cd drives and players enter my afford ability I will buy, till then DvD will do.

[TruckWEB]

I'll never accept to watch something of lower quality (high compression level) just because I can download it. I'll stay with Blu-Ray.

And with ISP putting crazy download limit, I guess physical media is here to stay.

Blu-Ray sold like crazy during Xmas, so yes, it had a slow start, but with lower price, it's going to catch up.

[pataykhan]

Btw I don't understand, why movie studios don't jump to 720p format. Thats the right thing to do. You can easily fit one full movie in 720p format on an ordinary DVD. So the Mpeg2 should retire, and movies on standard DVDs should be in 720p h.264 format. No need for bluray in my opinion. Many ppl do see 720p bluray rips on pirate sites, movie studios should learn from them, and do it themselves.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Thing is for most of you making a download argument, you're probably basing it off your friendly "MKV" websites :p "I stream everything from my PC!" Yeah, how much of it is legal? ;)

Choices/quality offered by legal distribution ain't that great as it stands, they need to improve. No extras, lower bitrates, the sound options tend to be non-existent and then there's DRM to boot.

It's the only physical format, it will succeed on that notion alone.

People aren't all going to suddenly ditch physical one day for many reasons - Even the music market still easily has a physical sale presence.

Complete overhauls of the market will be a slow burning move, one which will not suddenly show anything being ditched, just a change in market share.

However ISPs really need to be overhauled before we can even think of digital distribution outpacing DVD and Blu Ray. And no, there's nothing wrong with DVD (SD) and Blu Ray (HD) co-existing right now, as why on earth would someone without an HDTV be investing in Blu Ray? There's still SD only households you know. Couple that with Blu Ray pricing and there you go, anyone expecting HD to have outpaced DVD right now is being stupidly over ambitious. A product 2/3 years on the market, VS one that's been around for what 10+ years?

No need to be short sighted on the pricing side either, technology drops in price, and sales increase, like trends always show but people seem to be quick to forget sometimes.

Journalists really gotta stop making these wild bold statements and just let things play out a little longer :/

Edited January 12, 2009 by Audioboxer

[TruckWEB]

Btw I don't understand, why movie studios don't jump to 720p format. Thats the right thing to do. You can easily fit one full movie in 720p format on an ordinary DVD. So the Mpeg2 should retire, and movies on standard DVDs should be in 720p h.264 format. No need for bluray in my opinion. Many ppl do see 720p bluray rips on pirate sites, movie studios should learn from them, and do it themselves.

Because we don't want 720p... I'll take the full 1080p with full quality sound please. Technologies is supposed to go forward, not backward.

[FiB3R]

For average Joe, if you want the best quality HD then it really is the only option, so I can't see it dying, but in this household it's already dead.

blu ray vs. .mkv

[Smigit]

yeah maybe blu ray may die, but not in Australia were most of our broadband download limits are smaller than a blu ray movie lol..screw that physical copy all the way!

Now if only the movies weren't priced so poorly here. I mean at release the margin between DVD and Blu Ray isn't too bad, but DVD's always drop to 1/2 to 1/3 of the original price within 1 - 2 months while BluRays are still above what the DVD copy was at launch. Would be nice if they priced the movies more competitively, especially for 3month+ old titles. The Buy 2 get one free special they keep running isn't an offer thats going to get me to move to the platform thats for sure.

Duno what it's like overseas but it wouldn't shock me if it's the same story.

[Richard Hammond]

Because we don't want 720p... I'll take the full 1080p with full quality sound please. Technologies is supposed to go forward, not backward.

Most people say they cant see the difference between SD and HD and to get the benefits of 1080p over 720p you need more than the average sized lcd 32-42", the amount of people that have the equiptment to make use of 1080p and all the hd audio formats is insignificant compared to the masses.

Im not saying we should take a step backwards but theres no reason why there couldnt be 720p digital downloads for those that dont have the equiptment or dont need 1080p video.

[UKer]

I've been streaming video now for a very long time (around 4-5 years), since bandwidth made it possible to stream divx from usenet (freeware video of course!). Recently I've been using other services (I'm not gonna advertise any as there are quite a few services available), and have had no problems. Commercial providers have been offering excellent quality HD for ages, and for the equivalent of ?3 you can download and watch a rental (for full quality, which which is an option (together with lower quality), streaming barely works on my 16Mb connection, but you can download and watch the high quality downloads - for a limited time - or stream them using buffering).

For films I really like I'll buy a copy, after watching them streamed - as I don't really watch a film I don't really like more than once. I've no intention of replacing my DVD collection anyway, as I don't see the advantage on Bluray on my 32" LCD, there's hardly any difference unless you sit a couple of feet away from the TV! If you've a 50"+ TV and are rich enough to buy all your films on Bluray then you're not an average person - most have more pressing needs financially and will never be able to spend that much on entertainment.

I'm lucky as I have unlimited downloads with no usage cap from my ISP (again, please don't ask who provides it as I don't like to advertise companies, there are loads of ADSL 2+ providers in the UK who offer no download cap). As bandwidth increases, I think physical media will die a slow death, as the convenience of not waiting for delivery or travelling to a town to buy a disc far outweighs having a piece of plastic and a bit of paper for a higher cost, at least for the average viewer.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

I've been streaming video now for a very long time (around 4-5 years), since bandwidth made it possible to stream divx from usenet (freeware video of course!). Recently I've been using other services (I'm not gonna advertise any as there are quite a few services available), and have had no problems. Commercial providers have been offering excellent quality HD for ages, and for the equivalent of ?3 you can download and watch a rental (for full quality, which which is an option (together with lower quality), streaming barely works on my 16Mb connection, but you can download and watch the high quality downloads - for a limited time - or stream them using buffering).

For films I really like I'll buy a copy, after watching them streamed - as I don't really watch a film I don't really like more than once. I've no intention of replacing my DVD collection anyway, as I don't see the advantage on Bluray on my 32" LCD, there's hardly any difference unless you sit a couple of feet away from the TV! If you've a 50"+ TV and are rich enough to buy all your films on Bluray then you're not an average person - most have more pressing needs financially and will never be able to spend that much on entertainment.

I'm lucky as I have unlimited downloads with no usage cap from my ISP (again, please don't ask who provides it as I don't like to advertise companies, there are loads of ADSL 2+ providers in the UK who offer no download cap). As bandwidth increases, I think physical media will die a slow death,as the convenience of not waiting for delivery or travelling to a town to buy a disc far outweighs having a piece of plastic and a bit of paper for a higher cost.>

The ironic thing is though, with no retailer "competition" in the online download market (you basically have a few giants controlling the market), the prices of digitally distributed content are absolutely ridiculous in some cases compared to physical.

This applies to games as well - Music not so much, at least it's more in-line with retail pricing.

With many online retailers offering free next day delivery, or cheap next day delivery, saving ?5-10 here and there can't be overlooked when you get a bargain on a physical copy.

GT5 Prologue on PSN (Playstation Network) - ?24.99

Shopto - ?14.67 (free next day delivery) - http://www.shopto.net/page.php?page=dettag...mp;platform=PS3

Digitally distributed content just tends to follow RRP pricing and hardly budge, whilst retailers often have sales on movies/games and undercut RRP by fairly sizeable margins at times.

It's an absolute joke that DD goods even start off at RRP, seeing as there's no manufacturing costs for materials and the middle man in most cases is cut out.

Edited January 12, 2009 by Audioboxer

[ThePitt]

Blu-ray was dying since was born. Might me the last phisical format to the general public... Who knows.

I dont like materials that is made. Dont last that much. But that was the initial intention, the disc dies, the ppl buy a new one.

[morgs]

downloads will never succede if isps keep on capping

Exactly, until ISP's stop being greedy ******** and remove caps and upgrade their out of date, over used copper lines we'll never see HD digital distribution.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

Blu-ray was dying since was born. Might me the last phisical format to the general public... Who knows.

I dont like materials that is made. Dont last that much. But that was the initial intention, the disc dies, the ppl buy a new one.

What?

Not one disc in my household spanning back 10-15 years over games/movies and audio cds has "died" on me from old age.

If any skip/jump it's because of user misuse, which is the fault of well, the user, for not looking after them.

[REM2000]

It's a strange idea that for one technology to succeed the other has to fail, it's the same as Microsoft vs Apple, Microsoft doesn't have to close business for Apple to succeed and it's the same for these formats.

I don't think that DVD is going away any time soon, it's very convient and very much widespread and the quaility is good enough.

Bluray is an excellent technology which i have just moved to over christmas after getting a PS3, i had a HD-DVD player before. I consider that Bluray is more a movie buff format, i myself will purchase the films i consider worthwhile on bluray alongside DVD.

Downloads are the third slice and are also benficial. I have an AppleTV, i love downloadable movies and TV shows which are stored on the box but also transferable to my mobile device (iPhone). I think the big winner for the downloadable format is rentals. Online stores (netflix, we seriously need this in the UK) with a wider selection of rentables which can be obtained instantly.

I Think the movie market is big enough to support all three format, perhaps in the future bluray and higher definitions of online distrubution will overtake DVD, but not for a while.

[Angel Blue01]

I'm skipping Bluray until something else comes along, but downloads would take too long and I don't have the money for a PC to hook up solely to a TV. DVD with HD upconvert and over the air TV is enough for me :D

[UKer]

The ironic thing is though, with no retailer "competition" in the online download market (you basically have a few giants controlling the market), the prices of digitally distributed content are absolutely ridiculous in some cases compared to physical.

This applies to games as well - Music not so much, at least it's more in-line with retail pricing.

With many online retailers offering free next day delivery, or cheap next day delivery, saving ?5-10 here and there can't be overlooked when you get a bargain on a physical copy.

GT5 Prologue on PSN (Playstation Network) - ?24.99

Shopto - ?14.67 (free next day delivery) - http://www.shopto.net/page.php?page=dettag...mp;platform=PS3

Digitally distributed content just tends to follow RRP pricing and hardly budge, whilst retailers often have sales on movies/games and undercut RRP by fairly sizeable margins at times.

It's an absolute joke that DD goods even start off at RRP, seeing as there's no manufacturing costs for materials and the middle man in most cases is cut out.

In terms of convinience, for some people going to the shop or recieving a delivery isn't an easy option. I work all day for 12 hours during working hours - including saturday, so can't get deliveries without having to travel to a courier depot that can't be reached by bus (I don't drive by choice), and to get to the nearest town costs ?12 return on the bus and train (I do live out in the sticks in Devon and the nearest shopping area is about 2 hours travel each way) - plus I can't get them delivered to the office due to work restrictions on deliveries. This leaves me the choice of either spending a full day travelling that costs ?12, or getting a download which takes a couple of hours.

When I do decide to get a physical copy of a film I do make the effort (I only do this for films I really like and will watch again), but end up paying more or having to get a taxi to the depot (which last time cost ?7 each way).

Hopefully in the future they'll take into account that you don't have the media when downloading, and will charge less - although the media only costs a a very small amount to produce. I think competition will arise - downloads are so new and most people don't have the means to actually recieve them at the moment. I really do think the future will be more convinient and the need to search through loads of plastic boxes/wallets and then getting a flimsy disc out to watch a film will be gone - I'd prefer a nice playlist of films to that any day - plus you can easily backup your collection - especially as storage is becoming much cheaper.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

In terms of convinience, for some people going to the shop or recieving a delivery isn't an easy option. I work all day for 12 hours during working hours - including saturday, so can't get deliveries without having to travel to a courier depot that can't be reached by bus (I don't drive by choice), and to get to the nearest town costs ?12 return on the bus and train (I do live out in the sticks in Devon and the nearest shopping area is about 2 hours travel each way) - plus I can't get them delivered to the office due to work restrictions on deliveries. This leaves me the choice of either spending a full day travelling that costs ?12, or getting a download which takes a couple of hours.

When I do decide to get a physical copy of a film I do make the effort (I do for films I really like and will watch again), but end up paying more or having to get a taxi to the depot (which last time cost ?7 each way).

Hopefully in the future they'll take into account that you don't have the media when downloading, and will charge less - although the media only costs a a very small amount to produce. I think competition will arise - downloads are so new and most people don't have the means to actually recieve them at the moment.

Get something setup with your post:p :p

Very often there's no one in our house through the day, but the postman just puts anything that can't fit through our letterbox in our greenhouse.

If it can fit through the mailbox and needs to be signed for, he just signs it.

Of course, we know the guy well though, many people wouldn't feel comfortable asking for such favours or just wouldn't get them anyway if the postman doesn't want to (it's probably against contract/regulations for a postman to do such things).

This all came about due to heavy ebay usage in our househo:laugh:gh:

I understand your points though, things work out better for you this way.

My comments were more posted in reflect of "time ruining out".

[smooth_criminal1990]

IMO Blu-ray= (N) until the prices drop, although it has potential (especially in the UK where we're all stuck on ADSL and have ISPs throttling anything that moves, putting HD downloads out of the question somewhat).

[Jason S. Global Moderator]

Pretty bold title. Download sales probably won't surpass Blu-ray sales for a few years at least. This is due to the lacking infrastructure out there to support broadband speeds to allow near instant downloads. The fact is, currently you have to spend way more than you should to get decent broadband speeds (ie: anything over 20mbps) ... so I can't see this taking off unless you see the ISPs doing major upgrades, or major price cuts to sustain such intensive bandwidth use.

So no ... I don't think Blu-ray has it's 'time running out'.

agreed.

this whole "hd streaming is the future" thing is annoying. i believe it could be true, but it'll be many many years before this happens. Current streaming only provides the movie, in 720p w/ low bitrates, lower sound quality and no extra features. BD has 1080p, extra features, better sound.

my area offers broadband speeds upto 15Mbit/s, but we're only paying for 1.5Mbit. There's no way i can stream movies over my 1.5Mbit pipe and still allow any of my roomates to use the internet. hell, my connection has trouble streaming Youtube videos properly.

IMO Blu-ray= (N) until the prices drop, although it has potential (especially in the UK where we're all stuck on ADSL and have ISPs throttling anything that moves, putting HD downloads out of the question somewhat).

i sympathize for UK people that want blu-ray. in the past year, BD prices have dropped significantly here in the US. They the players and movies are absolutely affordable now, assuming you dont pay full retail price.

[ViperAFK]

Pretty bold title. Download sales probably won't surpass Blu-ray sales for a few years at least. This is due to the lacking infrastructure out there to support broadband speeds to allow near instant downloads. The fact is, currently you have to spend way more than you should to get decent broadband speeds (ie: anything over 20mbps) ... so I can't see this taking off unless you see the ISPs doing major upgrades, or major price cuts to sustain such intensive bandwidth use.

So no ... I don't think Blu-ray has it's 'time running out'.

this

[Crazysah]

Blu-Ray needs to drop the prices of the players and a $2-4 drop on price of the Blu-Rays. Plus, they need to actually go all out and promote it. Then once they gather some market share, they can move on from there.

Right now, streaming movies, and hd downloads are leading on the advertising front and price point.