spenser.d Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Actually that's also a myth - the majority of accidents happen in the cruise. Which makes sense, considering you're in the cruise for hours but take off and landing last only minutes, and climb and descent only about 20 minutes. No he's right. Most happen during takeoff and landing. A short Google search will tell you that.http://www.statisticbrain.com/airplane-crash-statistics/ Or http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf Or http://www.1001crash.com/index-page-statistique-lg-2-numpage-3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonalste Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 No he's right. Most happen during takeoff and landing. A short Google search will tell you that. http://www.statisticbrain.com/airplane-crash-statistics/ Or http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf Or http://www.1001crash.com/index-page-statistique-lg-2-numpage-3.html Right you are, I stand corrected! I was misreading the graph and saw the 'exposure' percentage thinking it was the crash percentage. Never mind, thanks for the info :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaP Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Would've been nice to get the QAR, but looking at that wreckage it'll have been smashed to pieces. Hopefully the black boxes survived and can shed a bit of light on the matter. As it was transmitting until the end, it likely remained intact. It was also a constant descent rate (steep, but constant) whilst there was no call out from the pilots/distress call. Possible incapacitation? If the plane is falling at a very fast speed (and looking at the debris it probably was) it makes it very hard to make a mayday call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocM Posted March 25, 2015 Author Share Posted March 25, 2015 Aviate, Navigate, Communicate If your hands are full with the first two the last gets short shrift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siah1214 Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Aviate, Navigate, Communicate If your hands are full with the first two the last gets short shrift. I think the crew was incapacitated. The situation developed for over 10 minutes, and no one had time to squawk 7700? It was a stable descent, no greater than 4500 fpm (emergency descent speed), for most of it, it was 2-3000 fpm, with the airspeed stable as well. Honestly this looks like controlled flight into terrain. If the plane is falling at a very fast speed (and looking at the debris it probably was) it makes it very hard to make a mayday call. No, it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biohead Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 If the plane is falling at a very fast speed (and looking at the debris it probably was) it makes it very hard to make a mayday call. It was descending for a good 8 mins - not an overly steep dive either. Plenty of time for a distress call to be made even despite the ongoing situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonalste Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I've descended in an A320 at 7000ft per minute in the course of a normal flight before. I've descended at over 6000ft/min on several occasions, usually due to unexpected shortcuts from ATC. 38,000 ft in 8 minutes is not particularly sporty, although it is a lot higher than normal. Which suggests to me some sort of emergency descent carried out without using spoilers, which suggests the pilots either had no access to the speed brakes or they believed there to be damage to the airframe, So didn't want to put extra load on it. Possibly. Fact is, we have no facts, so everything at this point is just guesswork. 4750ft per minute is still a high rate of descent, though. It is unlikely to have been a dual engine failure, as someone suggested. In that event you would carry out one of the two the drift-down procedures - long range or slow descent. Over the alps the would likely have gone for a slow descent, which would have meant slowing the airspeed to Green Dot (best lift/drag speed due to minimal parasite drag), which would have given them an incredibly slow rate of descent. As someone else said, Aviate Navigate Communicate, but I find it strange that no mayday was given. Two pilots, during an emergency descent part of the procedure is transponder to 7700 and a mayday call. Even with only one pilot they should be able to do that, unless they were quite inexperienced. I think if the aircraft had broken up in midair they would have found debris scattered over a very large area. Seems to suggest the aircraft was largely intact. As I say, too little information. I find this very interesting and anticipate learning the cause soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Fulcrum Subscriber¹ Posted March 25, 2015 Subscriber¹ Share Posted March 25, 2015 I find it very disconcerting; thanks bonalste, now I feel worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonalste Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I find it very disconcerting; thanks bonalste, now I feel worse! Oops! What did I say that made you feel worse? Flying is safe. If it weren't, I'd quit my job tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Overlord Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Oops! What did I say that made you feel worse? Flying is safe. If it weren't, I'd quit my job tomorrow.If it wasn't for statistical facts, I'd find this post ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noir Angel Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I think the crew was incapacitated. The situation developed for over 10 minutes, and no one had time to squawk 7700? It was a stable descent, no greater than 4500 fpm (emergency descent speed), for most of it, it was 2-3000 fpm, with the airspeed stable as well. If the crew had been incapacitated the only likely cause would be a pressurisation failure, and if that had been the case there would have been masks on some of the bodies, as the oxygen masks deploy automatically under such conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonalste Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 If the crew had been incapacitated the only likely cause would be a pressurisation failure, and if that had been the case there would have been masks on some of the bodies, as the oxygen masks deploy automatically under such conditions. The oxygen masks deploy when the cabin altitude reaches 14,000ft. During an emergency descent, it's common for you to reach below this level before the cabin altitude gets that high, so it would be common for a pressurisation failure to not induce the masks to fall. However, question would be why, if it was a simple pressurisation failure, would the aircraft descend below the MSA, or 10,000ft (whichever is higher)? It wouldn't. Also, for a decompression, pilots have their own masks that should avoid incapacitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noir Angel Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 That's not true, they will deploy at any altitude when there is a pressurisation failure. The point is that they give the pilot enough time to make an emergency descent to a safe altitude. If they only deployed at 14,000 feet it would pretty much defeat the purpose of having them in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim K Global Moderator Posted March 26, 2015 Global Moderator Share Posted March 26, 2015 A senior military official involved in the investigation described Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noir Angel Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 That's never good. Looks like we could be seeing something similar to Silk Air 185 / Egypt Air 990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryoken Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Ya that's a bad sign. But I can't say I'm shocked. These days mid-flight most crashes are due to people on the plane, not mechanical, as most mechanical stuff fails during takeoff and landings (When they are under the greatest stress). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noir Angel Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Yep, all this automation and it's still people making most of the cockups. Personally I think cameras that cannot be turned off should be mandatory on all flight decks, so should periodical mental health screenings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siah1214 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 That's not true, they will deploy at any altitude when there is a pressurisation failure. The point is that they give the pilot enough time to make an emergency descent to a safe altitude. If they only deployed at 14,000 feet it would pretty much defeat the purpose of having them in the first place. That's not true, the altitude that they deploy at will vary from airframe to airframe but it's 12,500 feet or higher. <12,500 feet you don't need them because the air is thick enough. Anyway, with the latest news, sounds like it was suicide. The other pilot leaves, the pilot flying locks the door, initiates a descent down to an altitude where he knows they will encounter terrain, and lets the aircraft do the rest. Must have been terrifying for the other pilot + the people seeing him trying to smash the door down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Argi Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 The last time I flew and saw a pilot leave, one of the attendants took his place in the cockpit so there's always two people guaranteed to be in there. I suppose this airline doesn't have that rule for their pilots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryoken Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Yep, all this automation and it's still people making most of the cockups. Personally I think cameras that cannot be turned off should be mandatory on all flight decks, so should periodical mental health screenings. They have that in the works.. it'll take one of these to happen in the US, and the FAA to mandate it for you to really see change.. Maybe if the EU did it, it would be enough, but not sure they will. In this day and age, there's no reason why planes can't send back their flight data and cockpit voice in realtime. This making the Black Box and bonus, or for use if the transmitter fails. Even if they add video, which they probably should, send it all back. Hell, some ENGINES on planes send back data in realtime to their manufactures, but not to the airline, and not all flight data. This seems like an obvious thing to me. You'll always know where a plane is, it's status, the pilots status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Red King Subscriber² Posted March 26, 2015 Subscriber² Share Posted March 26, 2015 Either I am reading more news or plane crashes have become more commonplace. +E.Worm Jimmy and The Evil Overlord 2 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloatingFatMan Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Anyway, with the latest news, sounds like it was suicide. The other pilot leaves, the pilot flying locks the door, initiates a descent down to an altitude where he knows they will encounter terrain, and lets the aircraft do the rest. Must have been terrifying for the other pilot + the people seeing him trying to smash the door down. That would be mass murder & suicide. If that's really what happened, what a complete and utter a-hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocM Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 Some suicides want company. More than a few spree killers are very similar; mass murder + suicide, often suicide by cop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonalste Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 That's not true, they will deploy at any altitude when there is a pressurisation failure. The point is that they give the pilot enough time to make an emergency descent to a safe altitude. If they only deployed at 14,000 feet it would pretty much defeat the purpose of having them in the first place. It's my job to know this, I'm an actual A320 pilot. What I said is correct. siah1214 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStaUK Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Would the cockpit door have a way to be unlocked from the outside, a keypad or something? Or is it all operated from inside the cockpit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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