Phobos-Grunt and Yinghuo 1

[neoadorable]

Do we have anything on this mission? it's supposed to launch tomorrow and will be a big deal, not least for carrying China's first interplanetary probe. It's not easy to find stuff on it, there's very little in the official Roscosmos site, and NASA seems disinclined to list it in the missions section.

[DocM]

After a 10 month trip the main propulsion unit (MDU - bottom) and the transfer truss (middle) will separate and the Chinese-made Yinghuo-1 orbiter (top) will be released for a 2 year mission.

Phobos-Grunt will then spend several months studying Mars, Phobos and Deimos before landing on Phobos. There it will spend ~7 days collecting about 0.2 kg of samples, then a return module will bring the samples back to Earth. If communications fail it will return them autonomously.

This is a pretty important mission as several manned Mars mission plans start by first setting up a base on Phobos, then using ISRU (in-situ resource utilization) there to make fuel for the landing and return to Earth. ISRU on Mars would fuel the return to Phobos.

Launch!

Phobos-Grunt

[DocM]

Bad news - all very preliminary as people are scrambling, but....

It looks like the Mars transfer burn from the parking orbit failed, and the Russian primary & US secondary flight computers appear to be in safe-mode. Telemetry is iffy, and sun orientation for power is uncertain. Dunno how long the batteries are good for without solar power.

If things don't change soon it could be another failed Russian mission.

[DocM]

DSN = deep space network, a worldwide network of dish antennae/radars.

If Roscosmos asks for help the DSN will have to wait for the next orbit to get any data. DSN was contracted to cover only the first two burns plus TMI (Trans Mars Insertion). Since the burns did not happen, they would have to declare an IMC (International Mission Contingency) with a request for all available antennas to rejoin the mission.

[DocM]

Russian Space Agency director Vladimir Popovkin says it's possible that the spacecraft wasn't able to reorient itself from the Sun to star guidance. Given that, it's possible the MDU never received the necessary commands to start the burns. Fortunately, none of the disposable tanks were jettisoned so no fuel was lost. This contingency was looked at during mission planning, so recovery may still be possible. They're going to try reprogramming the spacecraft and see what happens.. They have 3 days before thd batteries die.

[neoadorable]

thanks for backing me up on this Doc and for posting all the great info and pics...

what terrible news, though! i was so proud and happy that this mission was finally going, it's Russia's long awaited return to interplanetary exploration, and they can do so much. plus, it's a joint mission with China, which makes it even better. and i was so thrilled to watch the launch...and then this happens. i'm so sad, but still hopeful, as Doc says we have a few days to go and not all is lost. there is still hope! i will really be happy to get some good news here...

[DocM]

Bear in mind that Russia has a long bad streak going with Mars missions - 0-17 since 1960. Unfortunately, it looks like it will soon be 0-18.

While they're still trying, the Russian mission controllers have lost contact with Phobos-Grunt.

U.S. Strategic Command predicts a Phobos-Grunt re-entry around November 26. Russia will try to send a command to (hopefully) vent the toxic hypergolic fuels into space - if Phobos-Grunt is listening. At this point that's a big if.

NASA's Doug McCuistion was asked at a press briefing if NASA was helping. His reply:

"We have offered assistance and if they need it we will provide it to the best of our ability. That's a different organization from ours. I am not sure if they have asked for such assistance, but we have offered it."

This need for help is because Russia doesn't have a worldwide dish antenna/radar network like that maintained by the US, ESA, Japan, Australia etc. It's there for the asking, but so far....

[neoadorable]

this is so sad, but still thanks for the update Doc. i can't believe this mission has gone so wrong, i had so many hopes for it. what the hell happened? and now there's a re-entry risk...that's just great. how could they mess it up like this? what was it, bad programming or something?

[DocM]

Editorial in RIA Novosti -

The author is listed as Konstantin Bogdanov, who IIRC is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Features & Opinion

Aborted Mars probe jeopardizes Russia?s long-range space program

On Thursday, November 10, mission control tried unsuccessfully to communicate with the Phobos-Grunt (Phobos Ground) probe which lifted off November 8.

Analysts are in no mood to exaggerate the situation with the spacecraft but note that its problems are more serious than an ordinary technical mishap. Russia?s long range space program will now depend on Federal Space Agency efforts to reach the proper conclusions regarding the Phobos-Grunt incident.

The patient is more dead than alive

The Federal Space Agency has been trying to restore control of the Phobos-Grunt probe and to obtain coherent telemetry data for the past two days. This is needed in order to understand the developments aboard the probe when it could not be tracked by radar, when its sustainer engine was to have switched on, and when it was supposed to enter an escape orbit. But none of this happened.

By November 10, officials made some statements implying that the results of the communications sessions were not yet known. These statements gradually became more pessimistic, indicating that no communication had actually been established with the spacecraft, and that no telemetry data was available. It appears that an attempt to communicate with the probe from the Guiana Space Center near Kourou in French Guiana has also failed, and that no telemetry data has been received.

?In my opinion, the Phobos-Grunt probe has been lost. This probability is very high. At any rate, it is much higher than the chances for reactivating the probe,? Major General Vladimir Uvarov, a former top space expert in the Russian Armed Forces, told the Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper.

Loss of communications means loss of control

It would be a mistake to explain the Phobos-Grunt fiasco by a mere equipment failure. The problem runs much deeper. This failure is the result of negative trends in the management of the space program, which have been developing over the past 20 years, and, it seems, are not directly linked with specific issues of technical reliability.

?What do we have? The probe has entered a parking orbit, but no communications have been established. The probe circles the Earth at a rate of 16 revolutions per day, but there has been only one communication session during that entire time,? independent analyst Vadim Lukashevich, creator of the Buran.Ru portal, told RIA Novosti.

If Russia wants to conduct comprehensive long-range space missions, then it must first deploy at least two or three tracking/data-relay satellites in geostationary orbits, Lukashevich said. The previous Mars probe fiasco in 1996 can be explained by the fact that the ground radar stations were unable to track it.

Lukashevich also deems it necessary to reinstate a fleet of space control-monitoring ships for tracking these launches. ?China has three or four ship-borne tracking stations, while Russia has none,? Lukashevich noted.

Clench your teeth and go on

It is unclear whether the Phobos-Grunt mission will be reactivated or not, but Russia?s unmanned space program has been dealt a serious blow. Against the backdrop of the first emotional reaction, analysts note that it would be wiser to postpone ambitious interplanetary projects and focus on simpler near-Earth objectives.

?We cannot compromise our ideals, and we must get rid of this defeatist attitude. We face a very serious problem: we have spent five billion rubles to develop a spacecraft, more or less. A new, Russian, engineering school has evolved during the project, although its mistakes are evident here,? said Vadim Lukashevich, who disagrees with the pessimists.

In Lukashevich?s estimation, R&D spending accounts for the bulk of the Phobos-Grunt allocations. The spacecraft itself costs just over a billion rubles. The main R&D projects have already taken place. Consequently, a second such probe will cost less to build under conditions of strict disbursement oversight.

This would make it possible to prioritize equipment tests on the ground. ?To be honest, we need to repeat the very same mission and its objectives, with due consideration for the exposed drawbacks,? Lukashevich believes.

Equipment failure raises new questions

Russian-made space equipment is less reliable than Western equipment because the electronics are less stable due to weaker componentry and lower radiation resistance.

After scoring successes on the Moon and Venus, Soviet probes suffered repeated setbacks during the longer flights to Mars. U.S. Mars probes were more successful, although they too were not without problems.

In this particular case, we are not dealing with equipment degradation in conditions of a long-duration mission. Therefore, this either implies substandard software and algorithms or equipment failure.

Analysts say this may have been caused by insufficient testing, including a decision not to test-launch the probe?s full-size mock-up.

?What prevented orbital tests of this control-and-guidance system and propulsion unit a year ago?? Vadim Lukashevich asks.

He recalled that the Federal Space Agency missed a 2009 launch window after the Russian Academy of Sciences said the probe was not ready for lift-off. The resulting two-year lull in the project could have been used to upgrade launch technology.

Considering the fact that new systems developed under the Phobos-Grunt project account for 90% of the probe?s systems (as mentioned by the Federal Space Agency?s Chief Vladimir Popovkin at a recent State Duma meeting), it is important that the probe?s mock-up be used to test launch sequences prior to the installation of expensive scientific equipment onboard.

?They should buy another Zenit launch vehicle, fit it with rocket-accelerator components, including the engine, the fuel system and star trackers, and follow through with a launch. If everything is OK, then the next launch would involve the instrument-packed module. But this was not done,? Lukashevich notes.

Phobos highlights the problems of long-range space research

Vladimir Popovkin has prioritized unmanned long-range scientific missions, even sidetracking the stated intention to boost commercial profits. However, Russian research programs are too meager. Consequently, it is impossible to view the impending failure of the Phobos-Grunt mission as a minor setback.

After the ?96 Mars disaster, this is Russia?s first attempt in 15 years to launch a research probe beyond near-Earth space. And this is bound to be the last attempt for a long time. The launch of the Luna-Glob (Lunar Sphere) probe was rescheduled for 2015 the other day. It appears that the 2015 launch deadline will inevitably be reset for a later date.

Actually, Phobos-Grunt is part of Russia?s long-range space program as directed by the head of the Federal Space Agency. Another Phobos-Grunt mission will become the cheapest and most effective way of supporting this aspect of the research, if a miracle does not happen in the next few hours or days, and if control over the probe, now flying in a parking orbit, is not reestablished.

The specific drawbacks of the Phobos-Grunt probe could be exposed and eliminated during a repeat launch. But the mission will not be confined to this. The entire national space program, which, in its current form, provokes isolated technical mishaps, is in for a major reorganization.

[qdave]

This is very sad :( Why dont they do international long range projects instead of being russian, european or american. That way it might be cheaper too.

[Growled Member]

Sounds like the Russians just need to hang it up.

[DocM]

This is very sad :( Why dont they do international long range projects instead of being russian, european or american. That way it might be cheaper too.

This mission was international - it had some NASA computer hardware as backups and a Chinese orbiter on board, but unfortunately Russia chose to control the Fregat (upper stage)-derived propulsion module from the truss section instead of giving it it's own communications. The compromises necessary, and the issues with the inferior radiation hardness of their electronics, look to have doomed the mission.

OTOH - Russia has contributed to the upcoming Curiosity Mars rover - they provided a pulsed neutron source and detector for measuring hydrogen, ice or water at or near the surface.

[neoadorable]

my gut feeling tells me it was sloppy programming, not radiation-derived hardware failure or anything like that. i agree with most of the points by Mr. Bogdanov, but he's a little defeatist. Roscosmos needs to retool this entire mission and launch again as soon as possible, just like they did with the Venera probes back in the day. They shot off so many of those, it was admirable for sheer tenacity, not to mention dedication to science.

[DocM]

There were definitely problems with G-G as its computers crashed to safe mode every few hours during simulations. Not good. Hardware, software or both, it was not ready to fly.

[DocM]

P-G crossed ISS's trajectory today @4:00 AM GMT, though at a different altitude. The ISS crew were given coordinates for telephoto opportunities, but it's unknown yet if photos were successfully taken.

[neoadorable]

wow, it would be interesting to see those pics! i thought PG was on an eliptical orbit, going as far as 4200km or something like that? or was that supposed to be the second burn? i'm confused.

[DocM]

Nope - the orbit isn't the planned one. The photo attempt failed - F-G was too far away & low, about 180km away. Not looking good.

[neoadorable]

yeah i guess they don't have cameras that would have done that Kodak moment justice from that far away. i'm still hoping for the best for this mission, she can still do it i believe! having all that hard work and love burn up in the atmosphere or get blown up by a missile would be horrible.

[DocM]

The problem is that the orbital window for a Mars mission closes soon. If they do recover control after that (a big if) discussions are underway to re-task the mission to an asteroid, turn it into a lunar orbiter, or try for some other target of opportunity - maybe a comet.

[neoadorable]

launch windows...why are we bound by launch windows? maybe if we had proper spaceships with fast engines we'd be free of that and could launch any time...they only gave the girl enough fuel for closest approach trajectory...no wonder we're running out of time here! sorry, i'm slightly drunk so venting...but then if instead of shooting her down we can use her for a comet flyby, i'll take that!

[DocM]

Keep dreaming - but be aware that the girl is still being coy and not talking.

[DocM]

It's (kinda) alive, maybe.

The Perth tracking station picked up a signal from P-G during the last flyover. No useful telemetry, but they're preparing an attempt to establish 2-way comms later today.

IF it works and they can re-establish control, there are still high fuel consumption methods to fly the mission even though the window has technically closed.

Cross your fingers.

[DocM]

ESA has posted an update -

ESA....

ESA tracking station establishes contact with Russia?s Mars mission

?

23 November 2011

On Tuesday, 22 November at 20:25 GMT, ESA's tracking station at Perth, Australia, established contact with Russia's Phobos-Grunt spacecraft. Contact with the Mars mission was lost shortly after separation from the launch vehicle was confirmed on 8 November.

?

Following liftoff, the spacecraft was injected into low-Earth orbit in preparation for departure to Mars. Immediately after separation of the spacecraft and its modified Fregat stage from the launcher, controllers received signals confirming deployment of the solar panels.

Two automated burns of the Fregat engine were to have taken place beyond coverage of Russian ground stations, boosting it onto an interplanetary trajectory for the Red Planet. These failed to happen and contact was lost from that moment. However, observations showed that the craft was in a controlled attitude orbiting Earth between about 200 km and 340 km altitude. ?

?

ESA responds to Russian request for assistance

?

Upon request from NPO Lavochkin, operator of the mission on behalf of the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, ESA agreed to do its utmost to attempt contact using the Agency?s ground station network.

?

Phobos-Grunt orbiter and lander

Starting on 9 November, and in close coordination with Russian engineers, ESA made almost daily attempts to contact Phobos-Grunt using numerous configurations and radio link modes, but to no avail.

A major problem was that the spacecraft's orbit was not accurately known, whereas ground stations normally require very accurate position information for pointing due to the antenna size.

In the past few days, ESA's 15 m-diameter Perth dish was modified by the addition of a 'feedhorn' antenna at the side of the main dish so as to transmit very low-power signals over a wide angle in the hopes of triggering a response from the satellite.

?

Low-power feedhorn antenna contacted Phobos-Grunt

The transmit power was reduced in part because the receiver on Phobos-Grunt is optimised to receive only very weak signals when deep in space.

Perth is ideally located because the satellite's solar panels were illuminated by sunlight when overhead, giving a power boost to its systems.?

?

ESA station in Australia transmits Russian telecommands

?

On 22 November, the Perth station antenna was pointed toward the spacecraft's expected orbital position during 20:21?20:28 GMT, and telecommands provided by NPO Lavochkin were transmitted.

"Owing to its very low altitude, it was expected that our station would only have Phobos-Grunt in view for six to ten minutes during each orbit, and the fast overhead pass introduced large variations in the signal frequency," said Wolfgang Hell, the Phobos-Grunt Service Manager at ESOC.

?

Hard work pays off

?

Despite these difficulties, it was a success: the signals commanded the spacecraft's transmitter to switch on, sending a signal down to the station's 15 m dish antenna.

Data received from Phobos-Grunt were then transmitted from Perth to Russian mission controllers via ESA's Space Operations Centre, Darmstadt, Germany, for analysis.

?

Additional communication slots are available on 23 November at 20:21?20:28 GMT and 21:53?22:03 GMT, and ESA teams are working closely with Russian controllers to determine how best to maintain communication with their spacecraft.?

?

More news will follow as the situation develops.

[DocM]

Latest relevant data -

The antenna mods at the Perth (Aus) station worked, they are getting about 6-7 minutes of telemetry for each pass over Perth (not every orbit) and they're trying to modify other ground stations to get a network going. So far the data is from the modified Fregat propulsion modules X-band radio. They'll soon try the main computers and see what happens.

The Fregat's telemetry is still being analyzed in Russia to see if the rocket engines are good, and there is talk of commanding F-G to send unencrypted data to speed the comms up. Encryption is common - not unusual at all.

IF they have a good rocket engine and regain total control a Mars mission may still be possible, but the longer it goes the more the plan has to change. Changes may include losing bits of it - doing a mission to Deimos vs. Phobos, a flyby instead of going into low Mars orbit, or not going to Mars but some other body - the Moon, an asteroid etc.

If all fails it looks to re-enter and burn around Jan 12-16, with no idea yet as to over where.

[neoadorable]

thanks for the update Doc, i'll take the Deimos landing and Mars flyby over a re-entry. a re-entry at this point will make me really sad...i think this will turn out good, PG will make it, and will likely get going to the Mars system about the same time as Curio, heh heh, it'll be awesome to have them both making full steam to Mars!