Fact Checking Paul Thurrott: Bad Info in the Echo Chamber


 Share

Recommended Posts

Avatar Roku

Paul Thurrott recently published an article condemning Windows 8 to failure status on the basis of an inside tip claiming that only 25 million people have upgraded for free to Windows 8.1. This false report of 25M upgrades has been republished and quoted on every major blog from Gizmodo to BGR without any thought or investigation.

 

Paul Thurrott erroneously reports:


"Windows 8 is tanking harder than Microsoft is comfortable discussing in public, and the latest release, Windows 8.1, which is a substantial and free upgrade with major improvements over the original release, is in use on less than 25 million PCs at the moment. That's a disaster"

 

 

A simple look at the data we have publicly available reveals that Paul Thurrott's numbers have no basis in reality. Netmarketshare.com is a widely used and published data tracker that reports OS usage every month. They report that about 3.6% of PCs worldwide are currently running Windows 8.1 during the first 3 months of availability. In order for Paul Thurrott's 25 million upgrades figure to be correct that would mean that there are fewer than 700 million PCs in use worldwide.

 

3.6% of 700M = 25.2M (Windows 8.1) Thurrott Claims

 

In reality most estimates place worldwide computer usage at over 1.6 billion users (more than double, possibly 3 times the amount of users as what Thurrott's number indicates). IDC and Gartner data indicates 315M PCs were sold last year alone (almost half 700M).

 

Computer Industry Almanac: Over 1.6B PC users

MS Says Over 1.3B Windows Users (July, 2012)

 

Important to remember that the Netmarketshare stat (3.6%) is of all computers including millions of Mac and Linux PCs worldwide. That means it is not 3.6% of 1.3 billion Windows users, but 3.6% of 1.6 billion computer users.

 

netapplication-stat-dec-2013-desktop-os_

 

3.6% of 1.6B = 57.6M (Windows 8.1) Closer to reality

 

Netmarketshare.com puts the combined Windows 8.0/8.1 usage at about 10.5% of worldwide PC users:

 

10.5% of 1.6B = 168M (Windows 8/8.1 active users)

 

168M active users of Windows 8.x in the first year of availabilty is hardly the complete disaster that Thurrott describes in his "Threshold" article.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

neufuse

Thurrott has always had off, odd, or misleading info... and he likes to pick on others that are off a tiny bit... he's a better one to ignore then anything

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

+virtorio

Paul Thurrott has his uses, and a source of accurate information isn't one of them. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

NightmarE D

He is starting his "whine and moan" BS towards 8.1 so he can get someone at MS to give him access to internal builds. He wants to get his hands on update 1 for 8.1.

If there's any truth to a start menu possibly coming with it, he wants to be the first to show it and talk about how great it is while he tries to throw it in the faces of other "reviewers" and "journalists". Quoted because the guy is neither of those himself. He will then find a way to keep attacking it after a little while to try getting his hands on builds of Windows 9.

I'm hoping that once the MS restructuring and new CEO change is done someone at MS will put an end to his childish BS. It got old years ago. Whoever his MS source(s) are (if they even exist) need to stop feeding the troll.

It was funny when he tried getting 8.1 before everyone else and was only supplied with screenshots. Screenshots that he tried to pass of as his until others pointed out that none of them showed him signed into an account. If they had come off his system, he would have shown that to throw it in peoples faces. Now that was funny. I can imagine him throwing a hissy fit as he opened the e-mail expecting a possible download link and only got screenshots lmao.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

DeadEndAccount

Why is this surprising? anyone remember way back when Pau suddenly 'hated Windows' and 'loved Apple' way back in Windows Vista days then when Windows 7 came out it was the second coming of JC. Windows 8 was released and now he is back to the usual temper tantrum so I'm not surprised that he is posting what he is posting these days - its part of the usual song and dance he follows with little in the way of real analysis or deep diving into the details.

 

Microsoft must really be not giving him anything. he's having a meltdown
 
Planning for a Post-PC World

http://windowsitpro.com/mobile/planning-post-pc-world

 

Just reading through that link and this jumped out at me:

 

In-house, there are businesses such as Office that are already bigger than Windows.

 

Which is why I would argue that the operating system is less and less important; if you're Microsoft why should you care if the operating system is downplayed in favour of your middleware and services? if a person is buying your product or using your service on a non-Windows platform then how is that loss for ones organisation? It is the same reason why the MacBU keeps hanging around - because it is better to make a sale to a person running a non-Microsoft platform than making no sale at all. Personally I think we're at the stage that eventually you'll get a CEO whose focus will be profits rather than market dominance at all costs and to be completely honest Microsoft is in a great position with their office and server middleware stack that I think at some point they'll start giving away their operating system for the phone and client because in terms of profits the focus will be on the server and being a backend provider in much the same way that IBM is now producing the heavy lifting products behind all the consumer facing products we see today.

Link to post
Share on other sites

vcfan

Which is why I would argue that the operating system is less and less important; if you're Microsoft why should you care if the operating system is downplayed in favour of your middleware and services? if a person is buying your product or using your service on a non-Windows platform then how is that loss for ones organisation? It is the same reason why the MacBU keeps hanging around - because it is better to make a sale to a person running a non-Microsoft platform than making no sale at all. Personally I think we're at the stage that eventually you'll get a CEO whose focus will be profits rather than market dominance at all costs and to be completely honest Microsoft is in a great position with their office and server middleware stack that I think at some point they'll start giving away their operating system for the phone and client because in terms of profits the focus will be on the server and being a backend provider in much the same way that IBM is now producing the heavy lifting products behind all the consumer facing products we see today.

 

that's why Microsoft is getting in the hardware business,and the reason for the existence of metro/win8. selling windows just doesn't cut it anymore. selling hardware is a much more lucrative venture.

Link to post
Share on other sites

DeadEndAccount

that's why Microsoft is getting in the hardware business,and the reason for the existence of metro/win8. selling windows just doesn't cut it anymore. selling hardware is a much more lucrative venture.

 

True, and you can also demand a premium for a product that performs well and integrated heavily into Microsoft's online services as well. It'll be interesting though to see where Windows 8.x ends up considering that 64bit ARM processors are just making their way into the mainstream and whether the rumour of 'threshold' aka Windows 9 with windowed metro applications (I have a feeling that what is being talked about is traditional desktop applications that are based on WinRT rather than Win32) whether we'll see ARM laptops in greater numbers.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Stoffel

What I get from reading his articles is that he still likes and uses Windows 8.1. He's just admitting that the general public isn't really adopting to Win 8.1 the way MS would have hoped.

 

Maybe i'm just to optimistic for this forum?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Lord Method Man

What I get from reading his articles is that he still likes and uses Windows 8.1. He's just admitting that the general public isn't really adopting to Win 8.1 the way MS would have hoped.

 

 

Yes. Folks here are just hopelessly in denial and will attack any source that isn't unwaveringly positive about Windows 8.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

123456789A

Paul Thurrott has his uses, and a source of accurate information isn't one of them. 

 

Paul Thurrott and John C. Dvorak should fact check each other. Their combined inaccuracies would be amazing to read.

Link to post
Share on other sites

+virtorio

Paul Thurrott and John C. Dvorak should fact check each other. Their combined inaccuracies would be amazing to read.

Drive makers haven't yet created enough disk storage to store all the BS they'd produce.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Dot Matrix

This thread is full of win. (y)

Link to post
Share on other sites

LaP

Paul Thurrott has his uses,

I must admit he is funny ... like all fanboys and paid advocates.

Link to post
Share on other sites

NightmarE D

Yes. Folks here are just hopelessly in denial and will attack any source that isn't unwaveringly positive about Windows 8.

 

No. Folks here having been pointing out Paul's BS for years now. Has nothing to do with Windows 8 fans. The issue is with his constant lying.

 

The OP proves that he pulls numbers out of his butt. That's just one area he lies about.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Chris123NT

I've been saying for years that Paul is full of ###### but enough people keep sucking up the crap he posts, and a few people that I NEVER expected to be attached to his rear are.  It's sad really.

Link to post
Share on other sites

+Dick Montage

He used to be seen as the source to trust on Windows rumours, but as time has progressed people have seen him for what he is.

Link to post
Share on other sites

DeadEndAccount

Paul Thurrott and John C. Dvorak should fact check each other. Their combined inaccuracies would be amazing to read.

 

Do you remember the Dvorak claim that Apple was going to kill of Mac OS and replace it with a customised version of Windows NT? ( link ) People pay him to spout such utter crap?

Link to post
Share on other sites

123456789A

Do you remember the Dvorak claim that Apple was going to kill of Mac OS and replace it with a customised version of Windows NT? ( link ) People pay him to spout such utter crap?

 

Neowin could pay me to do a John C. Qwerty column here.

Link to post
Share on other sites

LimeMaster

Paul has always been biased and likes to promote Microsoft's products because that's what he is paid to do. I thought everyone knew this. :o

Link to post
Share on other sites

rfirth

Paul has always been biased and likes to promote Microsoft's products because that's what he is paid to do. I thought everyone knew this. :o

 

Everyone knows that. But not everyone knows about his temper tantrums where he attacks Microsoft when he doesn't get early access to what he wants.

Link to post
Share on other sites

NightmarE D

If he's anything like he was around the time he wanted to boycott IE 7 because he didn't have beta access, he will actually harass you over the internet for calling him out on stuff that he does. He's done it to me. Under a different name, but it was pretty freaking obvious it was him when he was the only person I had an issue with at the time and started right after I called him out on some BS on his site with proof of my claims. I was banned, then harassed on any site I used that same nickname on lol. It was beyond obvious.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Zlain

Whilst I don't deny Thurrott isn't the greatest source, your analysis is highly misleading. You seem to be getting confused between users and PC's. There may well be 700 million PC's which so happen to be used by 1.6 billion users (or accounts if you prefer).

 

Additionally, PC's, that could mean anything these days. Its easy to find bull**** in numbers if you look hard enough, but to discredit someone based on these statistics just doesn't have the same effect.

Link to post
Share on other sites

trooper11

I must admit he is funny ... like all fanboys and paid advocates.

The weird thing is, if you read a lot of his stuff, he comes off as the oddest fanboy ever.

He could be called a self-hating fanboy. He spends time trashing MS and praising it, in a rollercoaster of moods.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Walrush

The weird thing is, if you read a lot of his stuff, he comes off as the oddest fanboy ever.

He could be called a self-hating fanboy. He spends time trashing MS and praising it, in a rollercoaster of moods.

 

So he can't win? If he hates MS stuff it's bad, if he praises it it's..still bad. 

 

Seems like a lot of petty and vindictive people in here posting a lot of their own BS. Honestly people, grow up.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Similar Content

    • By Usama Jawad96
      Microsoft will soon begin throttling Exchange mailboxes
      by Usama Jawad

      Microsoft's proprietary email hosting service Exchange Online - typically utilized by Outlook - has had an upper limit for emails received by "hot recipients" for quite some time. This term encompasses users who receive over 3,600 messages in their mailbox per hour. So far, this has been a soft-limit that Microsoft has not really enforced, but starting from April, this situation will change.

      Microsoft has stated that in order to optimize email flow across mailboxes and to ensure capacity across the Exchange services, it will begin enforcing its existing limit of being able to receive 3,600 messages per hour. The company says that when tenants and mailboxes go beyond this limit, services for other customers are disrupted as well, causing delays in emails being received due to network resources being utilized by "hot recipients".

      The Redmond tech giant says that once it begins to throttle tenants, emails sent to full mailboxes will receive a non-delivery report. The threshold will be automatically reset every hour. According to the dedicated webpage, this limit applies to all of the following subscriptions:

      Microsoft 365 Business Basic Microsoft 365 Business Standard Office Office 365 Enterprise E1 Office 365 Enterprise E3 Office 365 Enterprise E5 Office 365 Enterprise F3 As Microsoft begins to enforce this limit starting in April 2021, it has encouraged admins to keep an eye on activity across mailboxes. The firm will start with a higher threshold and keep lowering it incrementally until it reaches the official limit of 3,600 messages per hour so organizations have time to adapt to the change.

      Admins will also receive new insights and reports about the process in the Exchange Admin Center, allowing them to track mailboxes going over the threshold. Microsoft does not expect a significant number of mailboxes to be affected by this change.

    • By Usama Jawad96
      YouTube announces changes to its monetization policy
      by Usama Jawad

      Following the Logan Paul suicide forest controversy a couple of weeks ago, YouTube has come under fire for improperly vetting its content. While Google severed ties with the popular content creator, it was also reported that the firm would be manually scrutinizing its most popular channels for offensive content, among other things.

      Now, some of these changes have come to light, courtesy of a blog post from Google.

      Google notes that while 2017 was a tough year in many aspects, there was a 40% year-over-year increase in the number of content creators earning money in six figures from the site. In 2018, in an effort to ensure that "bad actors" do not harm their audience, and that worthy content creators continue to be rewarded, the firm is changing its monetization policy.

      Starting from today, only those channels will earn ad money through the YouTube Partner Program (YPP) which have over 4,000 hours of watchtime in the past 12 months, and at least 1,000 subscribers. This is a considerably higher threshold than the previous one, which allowed monetization based only on the requirement that the channel has 10,000 lifetime views.

      While these changes currently apply only to newcomers, they will be implemented for existing channels from February 20, 2018 as well. Channels that reach this threshold will now also be manually screened for potentially offensive before they are inducted into the YPP.

      Google hopes that through these changes, it'll be able to divert money from bad actors and prevent offensive content from being monetized. The company went on to say that:

      Although the new threshold may potentially affect a large number of content creators, Google says that these channels can utilize the Creator Academy, Help Center, and Creator Site to grow their audience. The firm also noted that 99% of the channels falling below this threshold were making less than $100 per year in 2017, and 90% earned less than $2.50 in the last month.

    • By gcaw
      Windows 10 Mobile Insider Preview build 10586.36 rolls out to Fast and Slow rings
      by Andy Weir



      Yesterday, Microsoft rolled out its latest Windows 10 Insider Preview for PCs, build 11082 - the first build for those on the preview program to come from the Redstone (RS1) development branch. Today, the company is pushing out a new Mobile build - but this new release is an incremental Cumulative Update to the Threshold (TH2) branch, rather than a new Redstone-based build.

      Significantly, Windows 10 Mobile build 10586.36 is rolling out today to Insiders on both the Fast and Slow rings. Microsoft's Gabe Aul said in a blog post today:

      Gabe Aul said that this will be the last announcement of a Cumulative Update preview to be published on the Windows Blog. In the future, this type of update will instead be detailed via the Insider Hub app on Windows 10, although Gabe will also notify his followers of such updates via his Twitter feed.

      Anticipating the need for some much-needed (and well-earned) peace and quiet over the rest of the holiday season - both for himself and his colleagues - Gabe made it clear that there will be no further Insider Preview releases, for PCs or Mobile, until the new year.

    • By Ian S.
      Windows Technical Preview Discussion Thread
      With September 30th coming up, Windows 9 (or just "Windows"), codenamed Threshold, has leaked. I think its time to start a thread specifically for the Technical Preview and leaks.
       



    • By +Frank B.
      Microsoft set to unveil Windows 9 on September 30th
       
      Microsoft is planning to unveil its Windows 8 successor next month at a special press event. Sources familiar with Microsoft?s plans tell The Verge that the software maker is tentatively planning its press event for September 30th to detail upcoming changes to Windows as part of a release codenamed "Threshold." This date may change, but the Threshold version of Windows is currently in development and Microsoft plans to release a preview version of what will likely be named Windows 9 to developers on September 30th or shortly afterwards. The date follows recent reports from ZDNet that suggested Microsoft is planning to release a preview version of Windows 9 in late September or early October.
       
      The early technology preview will give developers a first look at the new mini Start Menu in Windows 9, alongside the removal of the Charms bar feature and several UI changes. Microsoft is currently compiling builds of Threshold ready for the preview that include an early version of Cortana, but it?s not clear if this particular feature will be made available as part of the technology preview.
       
      While Threshold is likely to be named Windows 9, it?s unlikely that Microsoft will name its upcoming Windows release at its press event. Instead, Microsoft is said to be planning an overview of key new features of the upcoming operating system, with a technical preview ready for developers and enthusiasts. Microsoft is also building a separate combined version of Windows RT and Windows Phone, and the company may take the time to detail this work during its press event. Either way, Microsoft?s next version of Windows is nearing completion and the company will be ready to talk more about it next month.
       
      Source: The Verge