Fact Checking Paul Thurrott: Bad Info in the Echo Chamber

[trooper11]

So he can't win? If he hates MS stuff it's bad, if he praises it it's..still bad. 

 

Seems like a lot of petty and vindictive people in here posting a lot of their own BS. Honestly people, grow up.

No, no, you misunderstand. My point is tone, not facts.

His tone is very variable. One day I get the sense that he think things are looking up, the next its all over.

Now if others want to prove facts re wrong, then let them. If they can, then they should. For me, my issue is tone. Maybe I notice it more because I do follow his stuff. Its not like there are tons of sources for serious MS news.

[snaphat (Myles Landwehr) Member]

You never vetted those sources. You are have no idea where they are from, how reliable they are, how much of swing and bias they have, etc. You can't just take unvetted sources, use simple math, and come up with a conclusion. What if the bias is +/-5%? In fact, I would imagine the bias becomes worse the less and less points of data you have (i.e. less instances of usage). It'd be one thing if you actually knew something about the sources of the statistics, etc. but you don't so you can't reliability prove anything with them, let alone fact check someones numbers.  :laugh:

[vcfan]

You never vetted those sources. You are have no idea where they are from, how reliable they are, how much of swing and bias they have, etc. You can't just take unvetted sources, use simple math, and come up with a conclusion. What if the bias is +/-5%? In fact, I would imagine the bias becomes worse the less and less points of data you have (i.e. less instances of usage). It'd be one thing if you actually knew something about the sources of the statistics, etc. but you don't so you can't reliability prove anything with them, let alone fact check someones numbers.  :laugh:

funny, paul likes to use the 1.5billion figure when he wants to post a positive article. same methodology as the OP.

 

Windows 8 usage jumped over 2 percentage points between July and August 2013, going from 5.4 percent of the market to 7.41 percent. (That 110 million figure was derived by multiplying the total number of active PC users, 1.5 billion, by 7.41 percent.) As noted, that was Windows 8's biggest month-over-month gain ever.

http://winsupersite.com/windows-8/there-are-now-over-110-million-windows-8-users

[snaphat (Myles Landwehr) Member]

funny, paul likes to use the 1.5billion figure when he wants to post a positive article. same methodology as the OP.

 

http://winsupersite.com/windows-8/there-are-now-over-110-million-windows-8-users

My issue isn't with the 1.6B estimate (that's probably somewhat accurate). It's with using unvetted percentage breakdowns from netmarketshare being used as proof that Paul is wrong. It's simply faulty science and that's the issue. You can't use unvetted sources to prove a point because you have no indication of reliability or accuracy. If Paul posted nonsense here, I'd tell him the same thing. As is stands, I have no idea what the basis for his figures are or whether they are more or less accurate. How can you fact check someone if you (1) don't have their data, and (2) don't have reliable and accurate data yourself? Simply put, you can't. Should you trust what they are saying? Possibly not, but you can't prove them wrong.

[LaP]

The weird thing is, if you read a lot of his stuff, he comes off as the oddest fanboy ever.

He could be called a self-hating fanboy. He spends time trashing MS and praising it, in a rollercoaster of moods.

Oh yeah I admit he is kinda unstable. Let's just say he is not really a reliable source. I read him here and there but you need to be able to read in between the lines the get a clear picture.

[statm1]

If there's any truth to a start menu possibly coming with it, he wants to be the first to show it and talk about how great it is while he tries to throw it in the faces of other "reviewers" and "journalists". Quoted because the guy is neither of those himself. He will then find a way to keep attacking it after a little while to try getting his hands on builds of Windows 9.

Not taking one side or the other but.... So does that mean that everyone that writes for the magazine "Windows IT Pro" isn't a journalist?

[NightmarE D]

I'm referring to Thurrott alone and nobody else. Where did you get the idea I meant any writer featured on that site?

I quoted reviewer and journalists because IMHO he is neither of those. When I said throw it in the faces of others, I meant anyone from other sites that's reporting on the same stuff. He tries hard to beat out others and gets soo enraged when he can't that his true side appears.

[Dot Matrix]

This'll be Paul in the next couple of years:

 

 

 

[NightmarE D]

I would be very shocked if he doesn't already do that.

Google and find any kind of video of him where he is with others. I've seen a few where he is just sitting there, looking a little twitchy as if he is on something or he's trying hard not to rage-out. Then others where he clearly gets annoyed if others are being talked to besides him.

Any video of him around other people. You can see that he honestly believes he is superior to the others. Very smug. He also had a thing, don't know if he still does it, where he constantly talked over others. That's one thing that annoys me to no end. When people talk over others as if what that person is saying means nothing.

[Steven P. Administrators]

When "tech journalists" start to take themselves too seriously and believe whatever they say is gospel when in fact most of the time their info isn't even first hand, more like second or third hand information passed along various channels. Haha oh well I had a chuckle!

[statm1]

I'm referring to Thurrott alone and nobody else. Where did you get the idea I meant any writer featured on that site?

I quoted reviewer and journalists because IMHO he is neither of those. When I said throw it in the faces of others, I meant anyone from other sites that's reporting on the same stuff. He tries hard to beat out others and gets soo enraged when he can't that his true side appears.

You said he wasn't a journalist so since he writes for Windows IT Pro then that must mean everyone that works for Windows IT Pro isn't a journalist either.. That's all..

[vcfan]

referring to the leak with the pinned metro apps on the taskbar :rolleyes:

But I do have a few more tidbits to share about Windows 8.1 Update 1. Indeed, had this not leaked this morning, I would have revealed it on Windows Weekly today.

first, it was, BUILD was going to be where Microsoft lays out the vision for windows 9,how it was supposed to be a big deal,and now he's told windows 9 is nothing too big.

Before signing off, here's one more semi-related tidbit: After someone pointed out that the year-long delta between the April 2014 announcement of Windows 9 and the April 2015 release was only a year, I started asking around about this, and how Microsoft would be planning a major release in such a short time. (An issue that is made all the worse by current uncertainties around the company's reorg and CEO ascension.) Last night, I was told not to expect much from Windows 9 and that it would be similar to Window 8.1 in scope. Fundamental changes are not coming, I was told.

http://winsupersite.com/windows-8/windows-81-update-1-preview-now-more-integration

[NightmarE D]

You said he wasn't a journalist so since he writes for Windows IT Pro then that must mean everyone that works for Windows IT Pro isn't a journalist either.. That's all..

I said:

If there's any truth to a start menu possibly coming with it, he wants to be the first to show it and talk about how great it is while he tries to throw it in the faces of other "reviewers" and "journalists". Quoted because the guy is neither of those himself.

I explained in that very post why I quoted those two words. In no way did I imply everyone who writes for that site.

[statm1]

I explained in that very post why I quoted those two words. In no way did I imply everyone who writes for that site.

In no way did I say you implied that everyone isn't one. I am saying that he writes there so he's a journalist. Look up the definition.