US AeroSpace: Policy & Politics [updates]

[DocM]

BFS will be so large it could serve as an orbital or cislunar reusable space station with much more habitable space than ISS. Not to mention it's Mars, Moon, and potential asteroid & small body capabilities.  Having big motors & gas tanks opens many options.

 

Not to mention the possibility of reusable orbital & cislunar tanker runs, or Shuttle-like large payload trucking by adding payload doors and a Canadarm.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

IMHO, in the future, I could see a space tug hauling/pushing several units as a freighter which would also have lander's and multiple craft docking rings. The possibilities are astounding. One could even convert to a hanger, 3D manufacturing hubs, science stations, etc.

 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

McCain schedules hearing on Russian rocket engines

 

Quote

WASHINGTON – Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, warned in December his committee would consider an “indefinite” ban on the Russian engine that powers United Launch Alliance’s Atlas 5 rocket.

 

Now, a little more than one month later, the full committee will hold a hearing Jan. 27 on “military space programs and the use of Russian-made rocket engines.”

 

Deborah Lee James, the secretary of the Air Force, and Frank Kendall, the Pentagon’s acquisition czar, are scheduled to testify as witnesses.

 

In December, a massive government-spending bill effectively lifted a ban, at least through Oct. 1, on the Russian RD-180 engine that powers the Atlas 5 rocket. As a response to Russia’s 2014 incursion into Ukraine in 2014, Congress had outlawed future use of Russian engines for U.S. national security launches in the 2015  National Defense Authorization Act.

 

The 2016 NDAA, however,  provided limited relief from the ban, giving ULA access to four more engines for upcoming Air Force competitions. This came after the Denver-based launch services provider said it had assigned five engines that previously were deemed exempt from the ban to nonmilitary missions.

 

McCain felt the spending bill undermined the work done by leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees to reach a compromise on the issue. In a blistering speech on the Senate floor in December, he said the Senate Armed Services Committee would consider “a complete and indefinite restriction on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s rocket engines” as part of the NDAA for 2017.

 

The committee also is likely to discuss the Air Force’s plan to develop an American-made rocket engine. On Jan. 13, the U.S. Air Force said it would invest up to $241 million in rocket propulsion systems Orbital ATK and SpaceX pitched as a way to end Air Force dependence on Russian engines. The service has said it could award additional contracts in the coming weeks.

 

At the same time, the service has awarded seven research contracts worth about $17 million to study various next-generation rocket technologies.

http://spacenews.com/mccain-schedules-hearing-on-russian-rocket-engines/

 

I, myself, am not sure where this will end. The last one being overturned in a spending bill...?

 

But one thing bodes well for the US aerospace sector, and that is the willingness to support private ventures. This is now evidenced by the ripples that newspace ventures are creating....such as...

 

 French government commissions report on rocket reuse, competitiveness

http://spacenews.com/french-government-commissions-report-on-rocket-reuse-commpetitiveness/

 

and somewhat....

 

ESA ousts Airbus as space station prime, appoints itself instead

http://spacenews.com/esa-ousts-airbus-as-space-station-prime-appoints-itself-instead/

 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

In the news still...

 

McCain, McCarthy to introduce bill to reinstate RD-180 ban

 

Quote

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) will introduce a bill that repeals a provision in the 2016 omnibus spending bill allowing continued purchases of RD-180 engines for national security missions.

McCain was openly critical last month of the omnibus language, which overturned a ban included in the defense authorization bill.

McCain’s committee is holding a hearing this morning on the use of Russian-built engines for national security launches. [AP]

http://spacenews.com/mccain-mccarthy-to-introduce-bill-to-reinstate-rd-180-ban/

 

Sen. McCain assails Pentagon for relying on Russian rockets

 

Quote

Air Force Secretary Deborah James told the committee the department is working to end the use of the Russian engines as soon as possible. She said disengaging from use of the Russian engines is far more complicated than it appears. She recommended a stockpile of 18 of the RD-180s until an American-made rocket can be tested and fielded.

McCain and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., are introducing legislation Thursday to repeal a provision in law that they say allows the unlimited acquisition and use of RD-180 engines, which are manufactured by NPO Energomash. The manufacturer is owned primarily by the Russian government and controlled by several of Putin’s confidants, according to the lawmakers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress/gop-lawmakers-seek-to-end-purchase-of-russian-rocket-engines/2016/01/27/d47cd92c-c4d4-11e5-b933-31c93021392a_story.html

[Draggendrop Veteran]

And speaking of John....

 

Quote

Keith's 6:30 pm update: Moments ago Sen. McCain just gave a shout out on CNN to SpaceX as being able to provide a competitive alternative to the RD-180 saying"we paid this outfit ULA $800 million just to stay in business". McCain went on to note that the company that serves as a middleman in the sale of RD-180s between Russia and ULA "involves thugs and cronies of Vladimir Putin".

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2016/01/mccain-seeks-to.html

 

Hope he doesn't have health concerns  due to this...he is very upset....

[Draggendrop Veteran]

U.S. Air Force evaluating early end for ULA’s $800 million in yearly support

 

Quote

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Air Force is considering the early termination of United Launch Alliance’s $800-million-a-year launch capability contract after the company failed to bid on the service’s first competitive launch contract in a decade.

 

Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James, testifying Wednesday at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on military space launch, said she has directed staff to study the implications of ending the EELV Launch Capability contract early.

 

The Air Force buys ULA launches and rocket hardware through a fixed-price EELV Launch Services contract but funds ULA’s launch infrastructure and engineering support through the cost-plus EELV Launch Capability contract that competitor SpaceX considers an unfair subsidy.

 

The hearing came with a bevy of unwanted news for United Launch Alliance.

 

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the committee’s chairman, said he would introduce legislation Thursday to reinstate a ban on  the U.S. military’s use of Russian rocket engines, a move that  effectively would limit  ULA to nine RD-180 engines for upcoming competitions for Air Force launch contracts. The Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture’s Atlas 5 rocket, which launches the majority of national security satellites, is powered by a single RD-180. The ban would not curtail NASA’s use of the workhorse rocket.

 

Ending the launch capability contract would have a more immediate impact on the Boeing-Lockheed joint venture than reinstating the RD-180 curbs.

more at the link....

http://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-looks-at-ending-ulas-launch-capability-payment/

 

too many lawyers, can't see this happening....?

[DocM]

Dunno about that. They get the $800m for assured access to launch services, then ULA refuses to bid? That sounds like grounds for a failure to deliver services cancellation by the USAF.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

Ahhhh!    Particularly, when they did have a Delta, but ULA chose not to use it.

 

I was a bit thrown back, when the ban was overturned in the large omnibus bill at the last minute. One would think that this could occur again, regardless of what John McCain is able to implement next. Then we have a mess of lawyers/politicians/lobbyists...I had thought that the best they could do is give ULA a repremand, small cash fine equal to value of non bid lift or drag this out pass the contract time.

 

I hope USAF can give ULA a wake up call.

[DocM]

5 minutes ago, Draggendrop said:

Ahhhh!    Particularly, when they did have a Delta, but ULA chose not to use it.

>

I hope USAF can give ULA a wake up call.

 

Right. Even though they'd likely have lost that launch competition, they'd have fulfilled the spirit of the contract by offering a Delta service. Worse, they could have bought an extra RD-180 engine set for a non-military launch and just shuffled the inventory to offer an Atlas V.  

[Draggendrop Veteran]

Now this is making sense....

[DocM]

Yup. It was a ham-handed move to panic Congress into lifting the RD-180 ban, and it worked because there was a short window between their play and Congress passing the budget. Now things have become clearer, and they're under heat again. 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

With ULA belonging to a very large military industrial provider...this move now shows a few flaws in underling ULA. If this were a chess game, it appears ULA had no idea for a second move, nor the consequences of their first move. Someone in ULA may be removed from a position of business strategy.

[malenfant]

Excellent info. Not looking too good overall. Shame really, they have excellent people right up the chain untill you get to the boardroom then -BOOM - IQs plummet apparently.

[DocM]

Bruno only recently took over after his predecessor mishandled things. They may not shake things up right away just for appearances sake. Also, Vulcan isn't a 100% deal - Boeing seems to be slow walking their support (ULA being a joint venture with Lockheed.)

Edited January 29, 2016 by DocM

[flyingskippy]

2 hours ago, DocM said:

Dunno about that. They get the $800m for assured access to launch services, then ULA refuses to bid? That sounds like grounds for a failure to deliver services cancellation by the USAF.

I saw the other day too that USAF testified the RD-180 costs around $30M. It's the first to a  figure has been released. 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

Here is a Reuters article quote...

 

Quote

RD Amross buys the engines from Energomash for $20.2 million each on average, according to Amross’s current contract with Energomash, dated June 5, 2014.

 

Amross adds $3.2 million to each engine, a 15 percent markup. It then sells them to ULA for $23.4 million, according to an amendment to Amross’s contract with ULA, dated Oct. 2, 2014.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-capitalism-rockets-special-rep-idUSKCN0J22BQ20141119

[DocM]

 

http://fortune.com/2016/01/28/pentagon-congress-spacex-competition/

 

Quote

>

McCain is now calling the $800 million maintenance payment “money for doing nothing,” and the Air Force appears to be listening. “That’s astronomical that—that sum of money, of taxpayers’ dollars,” McCain said. “And after paying them $800 million a year for my calculation nine or 10 years, then they don’t even compete on a launch. Is that the appropriate use of the taxpayers’ dollars?”

Sec. James also cited ULA’s refusal to compete for the GPS III launch as grounds for re-examining its dealings with ULA. “I was very surprised and disappointed when ULA did not bid on a recent GPS competitive launch opportunity,” James told the committee. “And given the fact that there are taxpayer dollars involved with this ELC arrangement I just described to you, I’ve asked my legal team to review what could be done about this.” (ELC is one of the Pentagon’s terms for the $800 million annual maintenance payment.)

It’s not clear if or how soon the Air Force may be able to restructure or nullify its deal with ULA. But the fact that the Air Force—once ULA’s great benefactor—is now exploring ways to dial back the money doesn’t bode well. Nor does the lack of confidence the Pentagon now expresses in its longtime space launch partner.

Speaking at the same hearing, Pentagon acquisition chief Frank Kendall acknowledged ULA “may not be very competitive” in the future, citing market pressures from the likes of SpaceX. It’s still “questionable whether ULA will survive,” he said.

 

 

[Blue-Vision]

And that, my friends, is what I meant by "adapt or perish".

 

ULA has chosen to perish. They had a "Plan A" but no "Plan B" when they were called out on their "Bravo-Sierra". Now they're in the deep water with no lifejacket.

 

When the USAF pulls the plug (and they will), NASA funding will be the next to go. All SLS/Orion assets will be confiscated, certainly. Any other Mil/Gov Projects will likewise be seized too. Boeing and Lockheed-Martin, as separate companies, since ULA is a joint venture, will be taken to task over this whole debacle. It'll take an act of Congress to do so; but I think that this is just the beginning of a HUGE shakeup in the MIC scene.

 

OldSpace has served its' purpose; and we're now witnessing how it gets taken out behind the woodshed and put out of its' misery like Old Yeller.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

For $ 23.4 million (2014 dollars), for a crate on the shipping dock. From this crate on the dock to Atlas 5 standing in a count down, not going to be competitive against anyone. ULA needs to "soul search" sooner than later. They need to live up to the contract they signed, even if a loss and attempt a restructure. Not too far in the future, they will be up against SpaceX...and who knows, BO maybe in for "Atlas 5 loads" eventually, or AR buying out ULA.

[Blue-Vision]

13 minutes ago, Draggendrop said:

For $ 23.4 million (2014 dollars), for a crate on the shipping dock. From this crate on the dock to Atlas 5 standing in a count down, not going to be competitive against anyone. ULA needs to "soul search" sooner than later. They need to live up to the contract they signed, even if a loss and attempt a restructure. Not too far in the future, they will be up against SpaceX...and who knows, BO maybe in for "Atlas 5 loads" eventually, or AR buying out ULA.

Not sure they'd want it now. ULA was attractive only because of the Mil/Gov Contracts. If those are all kaput, ULA is pretty much worthless.

 

The parent companies will field-strip ULA for everything of value, let most of the employees go after they force them to sign NDA's, and leave the factories to rust in the sun. That'll be the end of ULA.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

The Delta is still a lifter, that I feel, will have to be kept around for a two launcher approach to help ensure access to space. Yes, it is extremely expensive, but a cog still needed, even after FHFT is on the scene and has proven itself. This is quite the mess. I forgot about Antares, but it has RD-181's...here we go again.

If the Delta can be held on life support till USAF has viable engine technology alternatives...then phase it out for a more competitive launcher, hopefully derived from new engine research grants.The heavy lifter is the key.

[Blue-Vision]

Just now, Draggendrop said:

The Delta is still a lifter, that I feel, will have to be kept around for a two launcher approach to help ensure access to space. Yes, it is extremely expensive, but a cog still needed, even after FHFT is on the scene and has proven itself. This is quite the mess. I forgot about Antares, but it has RD-181's...here we go again.

If the Delta can be held on life support till USAF has viable engine technology alternatives...then phase it out for a more competitive launcher, hopefully derived from new engine research grants.The heavy lifter is the key.

DH is still available as a Lockheed-Martin product. Since it uses US-sourced engines, there's no issue other then the price.

 

That's gonna change after FH gets certified ... especially since FH is going to be 1/3 to 1/2 the cost (easily) and easily 2.5x the capacity to GEO. Then we get into the FX and FHX .. yeah.

 

LH-M and Boeing have no answer for SpaceX's gear in the timeframe that SpaceX is working in. No answer at all. They might as well start working on Habs and other things that they're good at -- oh wait, Bigelow's already beaten them to that too. 

 

Time to start working on those resumes', fellas.  

[DocM]

 

The next 2-4 years will be interesting.  USAF wants the Raptor upper stage for F9 and FH in 2018.

 

The debate now is if the new stage will remain 3.66 meters or be expanded into a 5.2 meter hammerhead stage with ACES functionality (can serve as a tanker, long loiter) and a new, longer, fairing. The latter would deliver greater performance but the former would be quicker to deploy.

 

I think the 5.2 meter as that would be on a path to BFS (methane fuel, higher energy launches etc.) and the longer fairing useful for large military satellites and Bigelow habitats.

[Blue-Vision]

Yep. Only thing that will save ULA's bacon now is some kind of miracle development that sees them keeping the SLS contract -- and I don't see NASA keeping that torch lit now. Not with the progress that SpaceX has made. FH is almost ready for hot-fire testing (April~May) and assuming that goes as planned they want to get that bird in the air by late summer for the Demo Flight. @DocM, you know more about SpaceX's plans than anyone -- are they opposed to accelerating timeframes if there's a need to bump stuff up? We've already read that the USAF wants that bird now. 

[DocM]

FH won't leave Hawthorne for McGregor until they're good and ready, and a big part of that is taking down 39A's rotating service structure (started). But yes, USAF wants the big bird ASAFP.