seta-san Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 (edited) 31 minutes ago, astropheed said: You called it pretty well Seta, nice work. I can't say I care about Sears and haven't even seen one as far as I know since I moved away from Canada. I remember when I was very little it was a bit classy but as I aged it seemed more and more like a pseudo-pretentious Kmart. I see no reason to shop there. Although I don't really go to many physical stores anymore to be fair. it only took a month from that q2 report. i'm also a little jealous. you still have nice k-marts. Edited October 15, 2018 by seta-san Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dead.cell Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Not sure why the thread was rated with 1 star, but just wanted to say I enjoyed reading your contribution. Brick and mortar struggling to stay relevant today, I still find a lot of these big business moves interesting. Mattress Firm was another store I had been watching, simply because they're EVERYWHERE here in Houston, but I never see anyone in them, nor any traffic going to their stores. I'm just confused as to how they've stayed up for so long, to the point that I started believing they were a front for the cartel, and that they were smuggling drugs via mattresses. They filed Chapter 11 as well, planning to close 700 stores, 200~ immediately leaving another 2,800 to account for, if you haven't seen it already... https://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenshoulberg/2018/10/05/whats-next-for-mattress-firm-after-bankruptcy-and-putting-700-stores-to-sleep/#7ea6073b5328 seta-san 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astropheed Veteran Posted October 15, 2018 Veteran Share Posted October 15, 2018 46 minutes ago, seta-san said: it only took a month from that q2 report. i'm also a little jealous. you still have nice k-marts. In Australia? Yeah K-marts are pretty crazy here. Good deals, and the stuff is decent and useful. There aren't any wal-marts to destroy everything yet. seta-san 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 Chapter 11 is official. https://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2116 142 additional unprofitable stores will be closed by the end of the year CEO Eddy Lampert steps down immediately but remains on the board Other Operations continue as normal Receive $300 million in funding to work it's way through the chapter 11 process A lot of additional directors are being added to work to help with the chapter 11 process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted October 24, 2018 Author Share Posted October 24, 2018 (edited) Updates: -Sears stock his been delisted at 36c after 30 days of trading under a dollar. -SHLD is no more and are now trading under -SHLDQ. The Q suffix is commonly used in bankrupt companies -They need another $300 million as they have already burnt through $220million of the last loan they got last week. Eddie Lambert already promised the money but is now looking for someone else to go in half. -Sears stock is going to go to $0. If they do emerge from chapter 11 then the companies debts will be transformed into new stocks leaving Eddie Lambert in charge since he owns the majority of the debt. -Unpaid venders are suing for their stuff back. -Malls are suing for Sears not to put up huge obnoxious signs declaring their liquidation sales as they depress other stores in the mall. Edited October 24, 2018 by seta-san Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted October 24, 2018 Author Share Posted October 24, 2018 I've been thinking about the situation that sears has been in for a while and I'm thinking that it will, inevitably, declare chapter 7. It literally has no positives. The Sears brand has been ruined by their own mismanagement. The stores themselves are, at best, late 90s faux fancy. At worst they are run down shells of their former selves. They have lost most of their exclusive brands. They are being outcompeted by Walmart, Target, Amazon, Home Depot, and Lowes. K-mart is also a dead brand. There are no good looking Kmart's outside of the east coast. They have been thoroughly outcompeted by Walmart, and target as big box stores. Eddie Lampert is a problem. He doesn't know how to run retail stores. The fact that he's the largest lender is another problem. He wants to keep the stores open but because he's been CEO and the largest lender it's almost impossible to tell if he's been acting in Sears best interest or in the best interest of his personal company, ESL. I don't think any fair judge will can rule for him because of the obvious conflicts of interest. The company should have gone into bankruptcy about 5 years ago before Eddie started to entrench himself and before he managed to sell off their best assets like Craftsman. Sears has the stench of death on it. People like shopping in stores that don't look like they need your money. The value of their appliances and tools are much reduced since nobody can be guaranteed their lifetime guarantee will still exist in a few weeks. They have been in a slow-mo liquidation for years now. Same store sales continue to decline. Stores that were a net positive last year are falling below that threshold.... and it keeps happening, month after month, quarter after quarter. This is a runaway situation that they will never get in front of. It will end in chapter 7 because there is zero long term prospects for the company. They could come out of chapter 11 but the truth is that the cycle of decline would just continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 (edited) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/sears-future-in-doubt-as-eddie-lampert-looks-for-more-protections.html I'm more certain than ever that Sears is going to close. Today we're finding out that Eddie Lampert is demanding to change the terms of the $300 loan that they got last week and already spent so that the loan he's going to give is senior to that one. Just over a week ago the banks were demanding chapter 7. They've got to be over Eddie at this point. It's clear that's he's not fighting for a future for Sears but for his own interest. SHLDQ is at 18c Edited October 25, 2018 by seta-san Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 they is closing 40 more stores. they have also come up with a scheme to leave the debts with the parent company and sell off the ~400 profitable stores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 no black Friday ad for either kmart or sears. this isn't going to end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 (edited) On 10/24/2018 at 2:09 PM, seta-san said: They have been in a slow-mo liquidation for years now. Same store sales continue to decline. Stores that were a net positive last year are falling below that threshold.... and it keeps happening, month after month, quarter after quarter. This is a runaway situation that they will never get in front of. It will end in chapter 7 because there is zero long term prospects for the company. They could come out of chapter 11 but the truth is that the cycle of decline would just continue. What I predicted back in October is happening. Stores that were net positives a couple months ago are falling below that line. The rot has set in too deeply. Eddie Lampert's efforts to buy the business out of bankruptcy is a futile effort. If he goes forward with buying the stores it's almost certainly for a secondary reason such as gaining ownership to name-brands, realestate or tax write-offs, otherwise it would just look like a guy desperately throwing good money after bad. As I said before, they didn't even try to put out ads for Black Friday. The foot traffic in-store dropped 6% during mid spring into mid summer. In the 3 days after Thanksgiving which includes Black Friday and Cyber Monday foot traffic in the stores dropped 14%. No retailer that can't make money going up to Christmas should be allowed to exist. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227005-sears-holdings-expect-store-closures-results-deteriorate Estimates show a further deterioration in Sears and Kmart foot traffic despite clearance sales. Sears' own financial projections show a 13% reduction in expected operating receipts for the holiday season (compared to its mid-October projections). Even if Sears can achieve massive non-store level SG&A cuts, it would end up with significantly negative EBITDA with its proposed go-forward store base, due to the deteriorating results. More and more store closures are quite likely in the upcoming months, with the weak results increasing the odds of a mass liquidation of the stores. Edited December 7, 2018 by seta-san astropheed 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon H Supervisor Posted December 7, 2018 Supervisor Share Posted December 7, 2018 wow that's pretty bad I thought they were going to file right after that crash back in october; i'm surprised they're still trying to stick it out. they can't last much longer at this rate regardless of what they do it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Brandon H said: wow that's pretty bad I thought they were going to file right after that crash back in october; i'm surprised they're still trying to stick it out. they can't last much longer at this rate regardless of what they do it looks like. They did file for chapter 11 bankruptcy which gains them certain abilities to restructure their debts and assets that might work going forward.... but in sear's case there is too much debt and nobody is shopping there. p.s. never saw that you were from Omaha before. me too. oh yeah, and their 3rd quarter Financials are due in about a week. Edited December 7, 2018 by seta-san Brandon H 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted December 23, 2018 Author Share Posted December 23, 2018 I'm guessing liquidation after xmas. there will be weeks as litigation over a lot of lampert's crap. at the end there will be one of two ways it will end. either the court does the right thing and liquidates it itself... or lampert gets ownership of it and liquidates himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted December 27, 2018 Author Share Posted December 27, 2018 (edited) not sears related.... but still in the same ball park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyfrog Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 It's a shame to see them go, they were doing mail order 100 years before the internet existed but for some reason they didn't jump at the opportunity to convert their catalogs into an online format. They could have been today's Amazon twenty years ago if not for the absolutely terrible management. Emon and seta-san 2 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 Watch the news for sears at or after 4:00pm est tomorrow. The real ###### is about to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sears-stock-rises-despite-friday-deadline-for-avoiding-liquidation-14821548 Lampert seems to have put together money for a bid. He did it by threatening banks they will be held responsible for 50k people losing their jobs. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-20/layoffs-loom-large-as-banks-weigh-funding-lampert-s-sears-bid Quote The implications were clear, according to people familiar with the meeting: Keep Sears alive, or you’ll be publicly blamed for the 50,000 job losses that would come with its demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Quote Last week, Sears won court approval to give top executives $25.3 million in bonuses to keep them from leaving, even as the company lost $1.9 billion in the first nine months of 2018 and Lampert’s estimated worth hovers around $2.5 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. --https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-20/layoffs-loom-large-as-banks-weigh-funding-lampert-s-sears-bid I would think that executives should EARN their bonuses, not get them by allowing Sears to reach the pathetic state it's in. I'm a staunch capitalist, the above paragraph is asinine. I don't understand how companies such as Toys 'R Us and Sears can screw up so badly, however every great thing apparently must come to an end. Maybe the Sears employees can get jobs at Amazon loading boxes.... until they complete their automation process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyboard Cowboy Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I worked as an assistant manager at Blockbuster when they went under. It's a surreal thing to watch a company of that caliber to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 (edited) so the board has found Lampert's bid to be wanting. they are preparing for complete liquidation. Lampert has until Tuesday to up his bid to something the banks will find acceptable. Eddie has really already shown cards. He's not interested in the company. He's interested in the real estate. He would probably liquidate the company as soon as he got his hands on it and kept the real estate to himself. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sears-liquidation-looms-as-lamperts-buyout-bid-fails-report-2019-01-06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 I think tomorrow is the day. Unless Lampert is able to pull a miracle out his ass(he's done it before) Sears is quickly going to go into liquidation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minimeau Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Yep, sure do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sears-asks-judge-to-liquidate-after-latest-eddie-lampert-bid-falls-short-14827448 astropheed and Jim K 2 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim K Global Moderator Posted January 8, 2019 Global Moderator Share Posted January 8, 2019 RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seta-san Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 hours ago, Jim K said: RIP Eddie pulled something out of his ass at the 11th hour. he's apparently putting up another $120 million which has him back in the game. Jim K 1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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