HDDVD group cancel CES press conference in wake of Warner announcement

[Joel]

is there a proof was warner was going to go hd-dvd and that hd-dvd group was going to announce that? weeks of planning did go down the tube, probably, and they did get a hard blow dealt to them, but what shows more strenght, a company that can come out on top of it or the one that backs down?

can you seriously tell me that toshiba and hd-dvd group had nothing, absolutely nothing to announce or showcase in their booth? is hd-dvd that bad?

I didn't say they had an announcement about Warner's going exclusive to HD-DVD, but having them in the HD-DVD camp surely played a big part in their conference. If every studio had jumped the BD ship yesterday afternoon, what would have been their plan? A showing of Spider-Man 3? I'm sure the HD-DVD camp had a lot riding on at least Warner's neutrality, and their show was wasted after the announcement.

[Tech Star]

What the hell are you talking about. There's still 40% of movie catalog available for HD DVD. Please stop spreading completely incorrect information. I understand you are excited but it won't magically change the reality. HD DVD was dealt a big blow, but it is not necessarily over just because you are jumping around wanting it to be over cause you love Blu-Ray. I said it's over when I heard about the announcement but I have to say that I will wait to see the official response before I say anything anymore.

There's too much money play, backroom deals going on in this war to discuss anything with logic. This thing is fueled with money.

No, the best case scenario, you will see more BOGOs, $99 hi-def players you can watch hi-def movies on, forcing Blu-Ray players down and make them increase the speed of Profile 2.0 players for cheap.

If HD DVD indeed folds, no more BOGOs, $300+ players with no need for Sony to do Blu-Ray updates to the PS3 anymore as often as before. Pioneer already announced $900+ Blu-Ray players with more coming up at even higher prices. Panasonic $500 only Profile 1.1 is the only one of the market with 2 more models coming at higher prices then that one, not cheaper.

If Blu-Ray indeed wins now, you'll understand what we got. Instead of $99 within months, BOGOs and other stuff, now you have no reason for them to go cheaper then $300. If you think that BD CE companies will compete, my guess is that they will agree that noone goes below $300 and keep it there.

Let's see if by end of this year, you can get sub $200 any Blu-Ray player.

Blu-ray still has compitition with DVD, if they win.

[goji]

Its a bit different this time around. All the information is freely available thanks to the tubes. But I agree, most people are so stupid that they don't know what they are getting into.

Hows it different? VHS and BetaMax was a format war with the studios in which Sony lost as it demanded to high of royalty fees from the other CE companies who wanted make BetaMax players. JVC on the other hand allowed other CE companies to create players who in turn passed on the royalty fees to who? The consumer.

Choice? None for the consumer.

If that is what the studios thought, then they are SOL as encryption has already been cracked. :laugh:

You realize that the new algorithms are not static can can be updated on the fly. If the Blu-Ray group wished to start flagging the HD content over HDMI it would be tucked in with a firmware upgdate. Beginning to understand why so many companies supported Blu-Ray from the start? This isn't some new marvelous revelation being made here. The writing has been on the wall since the start of this "war".

[DrCheese]

I'm only going on numbers I've heard on other forums, 70/30 seems to be the most common numbers thrown about. Maybe I'm wrong, but even if we go by 60/40 that's still a large advantage

and no, its not the best case scenario if the war continues. For those of us who've invested in HD tech ya the bogo's and the lower prices might be great but meanwhile the rest of the market still refuses to buy into either format for fear of buying the eventual loser.

Blu-ray still has compitition with DVD, if they win.

Yup that's the next big battleground and the sooner a HDM starts doing real competition with DVD, The better. Whichever format can put all its marketing resources into competing with that instead of a pointless war which each other

[Boz]

Goji, I have to say that I've grown to have huge respect for you. You've shown great objectivity and technical knowledge about the whole thing and your mind is in the right place as you understand every possible consequence if any side wins.

Just wanted you to know that.

[AaronMT]

Personally, I really do not care which format wins this "war". Simply put, what I do indeed care about is that I that I am not going to start slapping down $34.99 for a quarter century old film (ie, click here) and to be fair, the rival format (ie, click here).

This is not right.

[AlphaPrime]

Studios had already made their choices by going exclusive. This is the point I've been trying to get you to understand. If, for example, I buy only Disney and Fox titles, I'm buying only BD. If I like Spider-Man, I'm buying BD. That's my choice of films, not format, that is deciding which format I buy. I'll agree with anyone that the BD releases were, to me, the more current releases and there are a ton of titles that I would have loved to buy that were not available on HD-DVD. But I couldn't, because the studios locked themselves in to a format early on.

Sigh, I already did address that point before... Blu-ray has 4-5x the capable hardware sold as HD-DVD, it would have had the same outcome. For a while there HD-DVD had more movies to choose from even, and more studios. They never marketed it well enough and completely lost their lead they had. They bought out the biggest movie of the year exclusively, their titles had extras features, they had combo discs, they had $99-$179 players. They just never had enough momentum to ever get a winning marketshare. The reason, and the only reason, why Blu-ray did this well was that it was integrated into a games console. PS2 did the same to the DVD format. Obviously you still bought HD-DVD over Blu-ray, it if affected your decision, it went the other way. What it comes down to is that the majority of people went with BR because it came with their PS3, HD-DVD was never going to sell more movies with their current strategy, even with all studios neutral.

[Brandon]

How does the consumer win here? Higher prices, less features?!?!?

[blackhorse]

Hows it different? VHS and BetaMax was a format war with the studios in which Sony lost as it demanded to high of royalty fees from the other CE companies who wanted make BetaMax players. JVC on the other hand allowed other CE companies to create players who in turn passed on the royalty fees to who? The consumer.

Choice? None for the consumer.

I was talking about consumers voting with their wallets. Was this VHS and BetaMax was as publicised as this war has been? The only information a consumer could get about formats in 80s was speaking to sales people at retailers and we all know how good they are. With all the horror stories about RIAA, MPAA, DRM and now Warner getting bribed, don't you think a concious consumer(not that they form the majority) will vote with their wallets and not get shafted this time around. I will because I know all that wrong stuff thats happening. My dad in 80s didn't because he never know about the licensing fees.

You realize that the new algorithms are not static can can be updated on the fly. If the Blu-Ray group wished to start flagging the HD content over HDMI it would be tucked in with a firmware upgdate. Beginning to understand why so many companies supported Blu-Ray from the start? This isn't some new marvelous revelation being made here. The writing has been on the wall since the start of this "war".

I know that Bluray can change the standard in the future and add new DRM stuff, and this was one of my reasons for support for HDDVD. Considering the number of people/hackers working on stuff like this, any new DRM will eventually be broken and Media companies have already started to realise this.

[Ironman273]

Personally, I really do not care which format wins this "war". Simply put, what I do indeed care about is that I that I am not going to start slapping down $34.99 for a quarter century old film (ie, click here) and to be fair, the rival format (ie, click here).

This is not right.

That's a pretty silly assessment. The reason that particular film is that much is because people will pay for it. It has a cult following that is wants to see the new content (I'm not arguing whether it's worth it or not). It's like saying that a vintage Dodge Challenger that sells for $100,000 at an auction is not worth it because you can go to a dealership and pay $29,999 for a new one. :blink:

[AaronMT]

I never said it was only that movie, this is with all films that are listed.

[trancefreak]

I have a ps3 and i wont purchase a blu ray movie unless its stellar. I still will pick up a standard dvd usually over a blue ray do to the priceing. Its a shame both formats cant live in equal harmony as the consumer would only benifit from buisiness competition. It would of been nice to see the xbox 360 elite with a hddvd drive i think that would of helped the division between the 2 formats some. just my opinion :)

[Joel]

Obviously you still bought HD-DVD over Blu-ray, it if affected your decision, it went the other way.

$99 vs. $399 for a player was a big incentive.

You keep going on about what WAS, when I'm trying to point out what could have been if the exclusivities hadn't been. With the studios in the pocket of the formats, there was no real choice for many consumers. the PS3 alone represents 6 or 7 million BD players that come into your numbers and affect them in a big way.

[AlphaPrime]

$99 vs. $399 for a player was a big incentive.

And for many people I'm sure.

You keep going on about what WAS, when I'm trying to point out what could have been if the exclusivities hadn't been. With the studios in the pocket of the formats, there was no real choice for many consumers. the PS3 alone represents 6 or 7 million BD players that come into your numbers and affect them in a big way.

Well you didn't read it properly since I already mentioned twice that with no exclusives, we would have still seen basically the same result, maybe even a higher ratio to BR. And of course the PS3 affects this, my entire point. With all studios neutral, the PS3 effect would still be there, it'd still have the numbers, maybe even more. I read a survey a few months back which showed the majority of the people buying BRs for PS3 didn't even know which studios were with who, they just went with Blu-ray because it was essentially 'free'. Toshiba still would have had the same problems, we'd be in the same position, so it really wouldn't have changed much. Maybe a $99 360 add-on from the beginning would have worked better for them.

[Joel]

Well you didn't read it properly since I already mentioned twice that with no exclusives, we would have still seen basically the same result, maybe even a higher ratio to BR.

I'm honestly curious as to your reasoning for that.

[AlphaPrime]

I'm honestly curious as to your reasoning for that.

Well obviously with a much higher amount of hardware sold, there's still going to be more software sold if they share the same releases. This format war was always going to be fought via the game consoles as soon as it was announced the PS3 would have BR. The 360 add-on makes up half the HD-DVD players even. Of course add-ons never really do that well, it would have been interesting to see MS put HD-DVD in the Elite though.

[+Warwagon MVC]

now we just need a nice firmware update for the toshiba hd dvd player that supports Divx

[Joel]

Well obviously with a much higher amount of hardware sold, there's still going to be more software sold if they share the same releases.

I don't think that's happening with Wii software, though. It's not a given.

[DrCheese]

yeah but the wii is a massively different product than its competitors and is aimed at a completely different market.

[+StevoFC MVC]

yeah but the wii is a massively different product than its competitors and is aimed at a completely different market.

that has nothing to do with what he's talking about though. He's saying high hardware sales doesn't necessarily mean high software sales, or in this case movies. It has nothing to do with the specific product. It was just an example showing that high adoption of specific hardware means nothing in terms of software sales.

[AlphaPrime]

I don't think that's happening with Wii software, though. It's not a given.

Entirely different market and situation. Many people are happy just playing Wii Sports. We've already seen that PS3 owners like to buy BR movies. At $500 for a HD-DVD player or a 20GB PS3 and a neutral catalog of movies, there's not much contest there.

[Joel]

that has nothing to do with what he's talking about though. He's saying high hardware sales doesn't necessarily mean high software sales, or in this case movies. It has nothing to do with the specific product. It was just an example showing that high adoption of specific hardware means nothing in terms of software sales.

Exactly.

[ThePitt]

FATALITY

exactly

[AlphaPrime]

It was just an example showing that high adoption of specific hardware means nothing in terms of software sales.

The thing is, with PS3 and Blu-ray we've already seen it happen. No guesses or examples needed. The movies do indeed sell on the PS3 (more than the games sometimes). If everyone was neutral at launch, the attach ratios would still remain consistent of what we've seen.

[Joel]

The thing is, with PS3 and Blu-ray we've already seen it happen. No guesses or examples needed. The movies do indeed sell on the PS3 (more than the games sometimes). If everyone was neutral at launch, the attach ratios would still remain consistent of what we've seen.

Since we'll never know that for sure (because of the payouts), I've been questioning why you're so sure of that. We didn't actually see anything with the PS3 and Blu-ray, at least nothing that wasn't tainted. We;ll never know.