Analyst: WP7 to overtake iPhone in 2016

[George P Global Moderator]

i doubt it. MS will have introduce a bunch of disruptive features for it to even catch up with iOS, and considering the current dev pace, which seems to be lackluster :/ Its not available off the shelf like Android is currently, for techies and companies to find their own uses for the OS, from tablets to carpc systems and what not. I'd have thought MS would take a page out of Windows, specially the reasons for its proliferation.

Having said that, if i were buying phone now i'd buy WP7 device. its slickest OS of them all and easiest to transition from a feature phone, not to mention the facebook, outlook, onenote, skydrive is just effin awesome.

Features aside the dev pace from all the signs is going strong. already over 11,700 and growing at a nice pace for something that's only 6 months old. It'll pass the RIM store in a few months at this rate and that's been around for how long? The rest is just opening up APIs so 3rd party devs can play with more of the system. Something that should happen with Mango from the looks of it. To what extent they do though we'll have to wait for MiX to find out.

Sure WP7 isn't out there for anyone to grab and use but then on the flip side MS sells WinCE7 (compact) and that's what someone who is making a custom device will use. As for cars they also have a custom Embedded automotive OS that they license as well. Really CE is there, and depending on what you want to use it on there is a version more or less for everything, just not WP7.

[Mr. Gibs]

As for gaming... that's utter nonsense. Android has full OpenGL ES capability, and full support for 3D rendering, the argument about performance issues is also deprecated, since Android 2.2 was launched that no longer really applies, besides WP7 applications are not compiled into machine code either, Silverlight is also an interpreted language.

Too bad nobody really takes advantage of Androids "amazing graphical capability." I mean what's the best looking game on Android? Angry birds? iPhone has that Unreal game and Rage, WP7 has The Harvest and a bunch of other games.

As for performance, Android still isn't as hardware accelerated as WP7 and iOS are.

[bastones]

Too bad nobody really takes advantage of Androids "amazing graphical capability." I mean what's the best looking game on Android? Angry birds? iPhone has that Unreal game and Rage, WP7 has The Harvest and a bunch of other games.

As for performance, Android still isn't as hardware accelerated as WP7 and iOS are.

I have to say that smartphones (iPhone and I"m sure Android and Windows Phone too) - well, I say the iPhone in particular as I know friends that play games more on their iPhone than using the iPhone for phone purposes. I'm sure smartphones are very popular for playing games nowadays. There's probably many people that use their smartphones (iPhone as an example) for phone purposes more than playing games but there's many people that use their smartphone a lot for playing games.

[Xerax]

Only if NoDo get's shipped to all devices by then.

[dknm]

It's quite possible .

Nokia , the largest handsets producer, + winmo 7 will push the platform to the market .

[NienorGT]

Anyone else wondered why we would still use WP7 and not WP8-9-10 in 2016?

I can assure you that the UI is anything but confusing. Try it and you'll find that it's completely logical and extremely intuitive. I'd go so far as to say that it's the most intuitive phone UI on the market today.

Well, I certainly lack of trial time on a WP7, but so far, WP7 and BB are the only ones that confused me when testing them in store, not got for me IMHO.

[Subject Delta]

So it's time for direct insults then. Because posting it's "FUD" is legitimate, totally. Had there been some reasons given as to why the possibilty stated in the OP couldn't happen in 5 years then maybe it'd be "legitimate" otherwise it's nothing of the sort.

Hey, it's cool, if I'm a WP7 sackrider what does that make you? Is Google far enough up your rear yet or is there still room left?

Plenty my friend. I have been using Windows for nearly 10 years, and would never use anything else. Nice try though :laugh:

[rfirth]

Only if NoDo get's shipped to all devices by then.

By 2016? Of course it will. I'd expect most, if not all, devices to get it before MIX 2011 in April. They will be talking about lessons learned and the Mango update at MIX on April 12th.

[micro]

2016 is a LONG LONG time from now, BOTH WP7 and iPhone could be not even thought of as contenders in the smartphone market.

[George P Global Moderator]

Plenty my friend. I have been using Windows for nearly 10 years, and would never use anything else. Nice try though :laugh:

Nice, pulling the "I use company A's product so I'm not bias" card. Good job man, good job.

Whatever.

[HawkMan]

Stores here in the Netherlands actually advice against getting WP7 because people can't even get access to the Marketplace or Zune services around here. :laugh:

And again, MS hasn't officially launched it there. only carriers have started selling it, despite MS sayign it should only be sold to enthusiasts and developers.

Has the thought not occurred to Microsoft that it makes sense to make your products available internationally if you want them to sell :/

oh, was that why it didn't take years and years for Android to have marketplace in europe and why android marketplace is available globally... oh wait, non of those are true. Norway only got android marketplace late last year and it's still not available globally.

when you sell things you see there's a few things that need to be in place, licensing, bureaucracy, agencies to handle payment and complaints and support and os on and so on.

Anyone else wondered why we would still use WP7 and not WP8-9-10 in 2016?Well, I certainly lack of trial time on a WP7, but so far, WP7 and BB are the only ones that confused me when testing them in store, not got for me IMHO.

Well it's actually just called Windows Phone or WP, 7 is just the version number and isn't usually used in marketing. you buy a Windows Phone, you don't buy a Windows Phone 7, and you don't bu a Samsung Phone with Windows, you buy a windows Phone.

[what]

Will it still be WP7 in five years time? I thought they might move onto WP8 well before then, seeing as 7.5 is supposedly coming out this year.

[HawkMan]

No as I said, just like today, marketing wise it'll still be WP, not WP7, 7 is just a version numbers that's never used in marketing.

[Subject Delta]

Nice, pulling the "I use company A's product so I'm not bias" card. Good job man, good job.

Whatever.

Resorting to attacking my favoured brand because you have no retort. Good job man, good job.

oh, was that why it didn't take years and years for Android to have marketplace in europe and why android marketplace is available globally... oh wait, non of those are true. Norway only got android marketplace late last year and it's still not available globally.

when you sell things you see there's a few things that need to be in place, licensing, bureaucracy, agencies to handle payment and complaints and support and os on and so on.

The Android marketplace has always been available in Europe. There were issues on some devices with paid apps. And to use one country as an example is pretty stupid, I have been able to access the Android market ever since I got my first Android phone way back in 2007.

[DiamondFootprint]

I could go into detail about this analyst but this video does it for me nicely.

[Unix2]

WP7 is a challenge for MS, Apple will release iOS 5 this summer which will bring new features to idevices as well the rumored iPhone 5. With these new stuff from Apple, it will even take more marketshare and WP7 going down the hill. I don't see any future and innovation at all with WP7.

[epk]

I'm almost a Microsoft fanboi, but I have to agree on the international availability. MS moves at a snail's pace regarding that! look at Xbox/GFW Live.

[XIII]

Nice, pulling the "I use company A's product so I'm not bias" card. Good job man, good job.

Whatever.

I have both the Samsung Focus and HD2 running Android with Cyangenmod and I keep on finding myself going back to use the HD2. The support system for WP7 sucks ****: slow, inefficient, closed (no 3rd party support, firmware, etc...). If MS wants to be a leader, they have to learn how to shove the updates down the carriers' throats and ask them to either distribute it or leave it, no more testing.

The marketplace doesn't have that many apps yet and most of them are paid. Come on, why would I want to pay $2, $3 for a simple app that is also available on Android for free ?

With that being said, I still like my Focus because of the nice Zune interface for media. Xbox, meh, lame and overpriced games, even ZuneHD games are better and they are free to boost to. With a new platform, MS should give people a lot of incentive and sense of value when choosing their platform such as a couple of attractive games offered for free, not charging miniscule amount like $2, $3 and then hire sensational journalists like this to write how they will dominate market in 10, 20 years. That's just lame. The mobile market is not static so it doesn't even make sense to make market prediction in 6 months from now.

[jakem1]

The Android marketplace has always been available in Europe. There were issues on some devices with paid apps. And to use one country as an example is pretty stupid, I have been able to access the Android market ever since I got my first Android phone way back in 2007.

That makes no sense. HawkMan gave you an example of a European country that didn't have Android Marketplace support at launch and you just dismissed his point because you had support in the UK. Microsoft's marketplace is also available in the UK so what have you got to complain about?

It seems that you apply double standards in your criticism of Microsoft. Slow sales in the first few months for WP7 are a sign of abject failure but the same doesn't apply to Android's even slower start. A lack of a global marketplace is a sign of poor planning on Microsoft's behalf but isn't an issue for Android.

I don't see any future and innovation at all with WP7.

In that case you mustn't be looking very closely. WP7's UI is extremely innovative and a lot of care has been taken to redefine how users interact with content on a small screen. Christ, abandoning the tired icon-based UI that every other phone has relied on for the last decade is innovative enough. Perhaps you just don't want to see it but Microsoft have come up with a genuinely new UI for WP7 that's much more intuitive than anything on offer from their competitors.

[Bhav]

I predict Chrome OS will overtake Windows in 2020.

[George P Global Moderator]

I have both the Samsung Focus and HD2 running Android with Cyangenmod and I keep on finding myself going back to use the HD2. The support system for WP7 sucks ****: slow, inefficient, closed (no 3rd party support, firmware, etc...). If MS wants to be a leader, they have to learn how to shove the updates down the carriers' throats and ask them to either distribute it or leave it, no more testing.

The marketplace doesn't have that many apps yet and most of them are paid. Come on, why would I want to pay $2, $3 for a simple app that is also available on Android for free ?

With that being said, I still like my Focus because of the nice Zune interface for media. Xbox, meh, lame and overpriced games, even ZuneHD games are better and they are free to boost to. With a new platform, MS should give people a lot of incentive and sense of value when choosing their platform such as a couple of attractive games offered for free, not charging miniscule amount like $2, $3 and then hire sensational journalists like this to write how they will dominate market in 10, 20 years. That's just lame. The mobile market is not static so it doesn't even make sense to make market prediction in 6 months from now.

You're looking at android of today which is already mature, where were you and other android lovers when it was at 1.0? Or even 1.5? Does anyone even remember those? 1.6 sorta got the ball rolling with more devices showing up but nothing kickstarted it's push until 2.0 and that came how long after 1.0? Does anyone even remember? Sure sure, you can argue "well ms shouldn't had this and that in from the start", fine, maybe they should've, but guess what, it isn't as easy as you think to just redo a mobile OS over using a new app/game platform with SL/XNA and then expect 1.0 to have all the bells and candy from day one. It's time to be a little realistic here, every carrier does testing, they even test iPhone updates. If you think Apple doesn't have to put up with it then I dunno what to say. The difference here is that both of those are a few years in while WP7 is just 6 months old and as far as some users go, already has 2 updates, which though minor, and a bit slow, do show that MS isn't just sitting idle.

Let's be real here, why and how has Android overtaken the iPhone in around 2 years? It's simple math, they've flooded the market with phones. It's easy to turn around and say, oh look we have more market share, but then ya, you also have 50 phones vs 1 that Apple sells and it's still getting a huge chunk. Why is it hard to see WP passing the iPhone just the same way in a few years when you have a deal with Nokia that will kick in that brings with it a large valume of hardware + the other OEMs we have today. It's simple common sense, if you keep putting out more and more devices that are good and flashy enough people will buy them. 50 phones on the marekt with your OS vs 1 for iPhone, is it really that hard, really?

I also find it funny how people seem to think that just because NoDo was small and only brought C/P that the others won't be of more value. And also how people think Apple and Google can just pull innovation outta their butts for two OS's that are more or less mature already. I've asked this a few times and have yet to see a reply, what big great feature did Android 2.3 bring? What great new feature does 2.4 bring? What big great innovation does 3.0 have?

And on the flip side, what big great innovation did iOS 4 bring? mutlitasking? oh wait, it must have been folders!! yes FOLDERS!! Right? Innovation indeed.

[Subject Delta]

That makes no sense. HawkMan gave you an example of a European country that didn't have Android Marketplace support at launch and you just dismissed his point because you had support in the UK. Microsoft's marketplace is also available in the UK so what have you got to complain about?

It seems that you apply double standards in your criticism of Microsoft. Slow sales in the first few months for WP7 are a sign of abject failure but the same doesn't apply to Android's even slower start. A lack of a global marketplace is a sign of poor planning on Microsoft's behalf but isn't an issue for Android.

Well considering Android was only available on one single device for quite some time, a device which had pretty weak hardware, and WP7 was available on quite a few at launch, yeah I would say there is a difference. And like I stated, it wasn't the whole Android market that was unavailable, just paid applications.

[lalalawawawa]

And like I stated, it wasn't the whole Android market that was unavailable, just paid applications.

So, what are you bitching about? :) Its the same freaking situation on WP too. :laugh: Only paid apps are not available worldwide!

[Joshie]

It's weird how people argue and argue about who might have what market share.

It's interesting how an entry from MS is dismissed outright, but almost every article across the web about WebOS is wistful and glowing with an almost nostalgic desire for success.

I think it comes down to the general unhipness of Microsoft, and the sense that Palm somehow 'deserves' their shot at the handheld market.

I can't help but think the best thing Microsoft could do to become successful would be to ditch Balmer. Not because he's done anything especially wrong (and not that he hasn't), but because he's pretty much the last remnant of what defined Microsoft for the geek world. Bill Gates left and has since squeezed his way onto almost everyone's good side (except for the almost comically ignorant devotees of other platforms that will never, till their dying breath, let go of what was to them the most important war of their lifetime). Balmer, with his...jarring Matt Foley voice and a personality that leaves a strange 1990s aftertaste, no matter how good the businessman, is holding the company back in an era where opinion is becoming increasingly powerful (also not something I'm entirely keen on, but is somehow inescapable).

[apowers]

Funny, I just read the other day that Android will do the same thing by 2013.

You might have read that but the truth is it has already done it in 2011.