Analyst: WP7 to overtake iPhone in 2016


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XerXis

comscore_wp7_jan.jpg

Won't it be 0% by 2016?

first of all, the USA isn't the entire world

second, that graph can't be right, symbian still holds a lot of marketshare, even on the smartphone front

third, it doesn't make the distinction between windows mobile and windows phone

fourth, we're almost april, that graph is old!

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Xahid

I read the title "WP7 set to overtake iPhone"

& Just came to say "LOL" :D

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Zeet

This prediction is just like the 2012 prediction, by the time we get closer to the date of when it should happen, it will be postponed for another 10 or more years.

I am using the WP7 and right now I'm filled with nothing but regret, I never got the February update because my carrier is still testing it, as well as the march NoDo update. The only thing I'm looking forward to is the xbox live angry birds.

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NienorGT

In uber fallacious theory: if all current Nokia users move to WP7/WP8 and the *rumored* future Windows Phone "Basic" that will replace what was "Symbian S40", yes, they will totally dominate the market because of Asia/Africa markets that all run on Nokia currently.

But in all seriousness, not everyone will stay without wondering if they should change or not. So, in reality, how many will follow Nokia with Microsoft and how many won't?

Anyway, I'm not going with it even if it take 99% of the world...

I don't like the WP7 UI, it's confusing. We are not in Tron here, the world is not just about lines, rounds and squares...

I liked more WinMO 6.1 in 2008 than WP7 today :p

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jakem1

I am using the WP7 and right now I'm filled with nothing but regret, I never got the February update because my carrier is still testing it, as well as the march NoDo update. The only thing I'm looking forward to is the xbox live angry birds.

Your regret is entirely misplaced. The pre-NoDo update didn't add any useful features from an end-user point of view and NoDo adds a few nice-to-haves rather than essential features. Rather than feeling regret you should be happy that you've got a highly polished, well thout-out and designed OS that is enticing developers and growing as a platform.

Anyway, I'm not going with it even if it take 99% of the world...

I don't like the WP7 UI, it's confusing. We are not in Tron here, the world is not just about lines, rounds and squares...

I liked more WinMO 6.1 in 2008 than WP7 today :p

I can assure you that the UI is anything but confusing. Try it and you'll find that it's completely logical and extremely intuitive. I'd go so far as to say that it's the most intuitive phone UI on the market today.

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BeerFan

Why is this in the Windows Support section? I don't see a request for support here... :unsure:

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George P

The prediction could very well come true. It seems to me few people even read the article and just decided that because WP7 isn't breaking any sales records right now it'll never happen. The fact is that Android is doing so well because of the sheer volume of new devices that find their way to the market. Each new device brings a new round of marketing and the cycle just compounds as time passes. With the Mango 7.5 update we'll get another round of devices and also Nokia kicking it's massive volume and marketing ability as well. Beating the iPhone is easy, just keep pumping newer and better devices out. Just ask the Android camp for example.

Unless Apple changes it's once a year iPhone refresh they'll slowlly start to get pushed to the side by the blitz of droid and wp7 devices.

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nub

WTF, this is just prediction not truth. "set to overtake" sounds stupid tbh :/

Congratulations, you can read

Really? Cause I know personally about 4 people with an Android phone. The rest are iPhones/Crackberries. Is this based on device sales or what?

You are master of logic

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Subject Delta

I'd say this thread is full of nothing more than people posting wild speculations that are nothing more than people who don't want to admit that reception to WP7 has been poor. Yes, in the sense that all available devices are being shipped to retailers, yes they are being sold, however I would wager that most retailers have spare stock. Given that Microsoft started from a baseline that was missing some very basic features, coupled with the fact that Apple and Google are far from standing still, i'd say Microsoft have a hell of a lot of work to do

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jakem1

I'd say this thread is full of nothing more than people posting wild speculations that are nothing more than people who don't want to admit that reception to WP7 has been poor. Yes, in the sense that all available devices are being shipped to retailers, yes they are being sold, however I would wager that most retailers have spare stock. Given that Microsoft started from a baseline that was missing some very basic features, coupled with the fact that Apple and Google are far from standing still, i'd say Microsoft have a hell of a lot of work to do

You keep saying this but you should remember that your speculation is as wild as everyone else's. You're ignoring the fact that WP7 has only been out for four or five months, comparing it to current Android and iPhone sales and then deciding that it's failing. That's silly and you're also forgetting how poorly Android did in it's first year or two before rapidly picking up marketshare.

Given its age, WP7 is growing strongly, it's attracting developers faster than any other platform and things are only likely to get better. Microsoft may well have a lot of work to do but they are off to a much stronger start than their competitors and will have added all the missing features you're referring to by the end of their first year. Also, in many areas they're already well ahead of their competitors - for example, Android has a long way to go before it matches WP7's on many fronts including gaming, music and general performance.

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.Neo

Given the rather stale reception WP7 appears to be getting in the market in general, i'd say that's nothing more than a wild prediction.

Stores here in the Netherlands actually advice against getting WP7 because people can't even get access to the Marketplace or Zune services around here. :laugh:

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George P

I'd say this thread is full of nothing more than people posting wild speculations that are nothing more than people who don't want to admit that reception to WP7 has been poor. Yes, in the sense that all available devices are being shipped to retailers, yes they are being sold, however I would wager that most retailers have spare stock. Given that Microsoft started from a baseline that was missing some very basic features, coupled with the fact that Apple and Google are far from standing still, i'd say Microsoft have a hell of a lot of work to do

The "not standing still" line is overblown. It's harder to keep adding something new and innovative to stay ahead with something that's already more or less a mature product than it is to add things that are missing but have been done before. MS's job is easier as far as features go and "catching up". Apple and Googles job is the hard one, how can you add something new to get people to buy your new product. Honestly what did Android 2.3 bring over 2.2? What big new and innovative thing does 2.4 bring? And aside of a UI redo to better fit tablets what great new innovative feature does 3.0 bring?

I'd say your posts are full of the same opinion that you've stated over and over. I question why you care anymore and why you're even in this section for that matter? I don't give two cents about Android and Apple and thus never post my bias opinion about those products in their respective sections. I guess some peoples burning pasion for their brand of choice makes them feel compelled to do so though.

Stores here in the Netherlands actually advice against getting WP7 because people can't even get access to the Marketplace or Zune services around here. :laugh:

Seeing how it's not officially released in those markets, as it's not in mine either from a marketplace standpoint you are buying it at a risk you could say. Regardless of not being able to buy apps I can still download and install a number of good free ones as I have so far.

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jakem1

Stores here in the Netherlands actually advice against getting WP7 because people can't even get access to the Marketplace or Zune services around here. :laugh:

What's so funny about that? WP7 hasn't been officially released in the Netherlands so it's only right that potential customers be advised of the problems they'd face if they buy it. You can hardly criticise MS for not providing proper support in a country that they haven't released their product in. I'm not sure how your example is evidence of a stale reception and I'm not sure why you've been banging on about the state of WP7 in the Netherlands for the last 5 months :blink:

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instant.human

Yeah, so? Good for Microsoft. And? Do you actually care about marketshare when buying a phone? Or do you take a look at your needs? Keep in mind that +-5% in marketshare at about 75.000.000 registrered smart phones in the US is not that much.

And then, of course, the US is not the world. Android might have overtaken iOS in the US by now. But not in europe. Not by a loooong shot. But then again there are really more important things to care about than feeding a fanboys soul with news about marketshare gainings when it comes to buying a new phone. At least in my opinion. :whistle:

But no really, good for Microsoft. I like WP7. :)

http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/38347/ios-massively-outshines-android-europe FYI

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thealexweb

Funny, I just read the other day that Android will do the same thing by 2013.

In terms of new phone sold Android's all ready been there, done that :)

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alexalex

Marketshare shows that WP7 sales are pathetic.

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ZekeComa

A bunch of FUD

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jakem1

Marketshare shows that WP7 sales are pathetic.

Read my post above before continuing with your trolling. Marketshare is meaningless this early in a products life.

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ZekeComa

Read my post above before continuing with your trolling. Marketshare is meaningless this early in a products life.

What? by your standards. I sure as hell wouldn't buy no phone that didn't have a ton of apps for it already. That's like buying Windows that only has solitarie.

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thealexweb

Read my post above before continuing with your trolling. Marketshare is meaningless this early in a products life.

Sadly MS investors don't see it that way.

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George P

A bunch of FUD

Oh wow, what took you so long to post with your negativity, we're already 3 pages in! Honestly, are the android forums too quiet today or something?

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Subject Delta

You keep saying this but you should remember that your speculation is as wild as everyone else's. You're ignoring the fact that WP7 has only been out for four or five months, comparing it to current Android and iPhone sales and then deciding that it's failing. That's silly and you're also forgetting how poorly Android did in it's first year or two before rapidly picking up marketshare.

Given its age, WP7 is growing strongly, it's attracting developers faster than any other platform and things are only likely to get better. Microsoft may well have a lot of work to do but they are off to a much stronger start than their competitors and will have added all the missing features you're referring to by the end of their first year. Also, in many areas they're already well ahead of their competitors - for example, Android has a long way to go before it matches WP7's on many fronts including gaming, music and general performance.

How long WP7 has been out is irrelevant. It was in development for nearly 2 years, and was launched not only missing features that users of other smartphone OSes have came to take for granted, and consider to be basic functionality, it was also launched with a slow, poor, and outdated rendering engine with it's web browser. You can call that what you want, I call it lazy, and I call it a poor effort.

As for gaming... that's utter nonsense. Android has full OpenGL ES capability, and full support for 3D rendering, the argument about performance issues is also deprecated, since Android 2.2 was launched that no longer really applies, besides WP7 applications are not compiled into machine code either, Silverlight is also an interpreted language.

Stores here in the Netherlands actually advice against getting WP7 because people can't even get access to the Marketplace or Zune services around here. :laugh:

Has the thought not occurred to Microsoft that it makes sense to make your products available internationally if you want them to sell :/

Oh wow, what took you so long to post with your negativity, we're already 3 pages in! Honestly, are the android forums too quiet today or something?

Another WP7 sackrider that doesn't like being confronted with the truth. It's called a legitimate opinion and you obviously have issues dealing with them

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George P

Another WP7 sackrider that doesn't like being confronted with the truth. It's called a legitimate opinion and you obviously have issues dealing with them

So it's time for direct insults then. Because posting it's "FUD" is legitimate, totally. Had there been some reasons given as to why the possibilty stated in the OP couldn't happen in 5 years then maybe it'd be "legitimate" otherwise it's nothing of the sort.

Hey, it's cool, if I'm a WP7 sackrider what does that make you? Is Google far enough up your rear yet or is there still room left?

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guru

i doubt it. MS will have introduce a bunch of disruptive features for it to even catch up with iOS, and considering the current dev pace, which seems to be lackluster :/ Its not available off the shelf like Android is currently, for techies and companies to find their own uses for the OS, from tablets to carpc systems and what not. I'd have thought MS would take a page out of Windows, specially the reasons for its proliferation.

Having said that, if i were buying phone now i'd buy WP7 device. its slickest OS of them all and easiest to transition from a feature phone, not to mention the facebook, outlook, onenote, skydrive is just effin awesome.

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bastones

WP7 sales haven't been "poor" this isn't like a console or an operating system, a lot of people are waiting for there contracts to be up or for the next generation of WP7 phones(ones with dual core processors, etc). The one thing I will say is MS screwed themselves by not releasing the phone sooner, which caused a lot of people that I know anyway to get an andriod phone. All of MS problems are centered around OEM's, MS should have stayed with one or two phone manufactures they branched out to multiple OEM's too quickly.

I doubt the WP7 project manager anticipated the amount of hand holding that some OEM's require...*caugh* samsung :/.

Not being one-sided to Apple, I do have to admit having "OEMs" or hardware partners for your software (Android has an example and Windows Phone), it probably causes more problems for the OEM, the software producer and the consumer. For example if there are problems with software updates with a particular phone model with a particular OEM, it's because of the wide variety of hardware devices being used with Windows Phone, as an example. And it means software updates have to be thoroughly tested beforehand. Whereas Apple has only its own hardware that goes with its software. Sure it has to do testing but it doesn't have the same sort of situation I presume Microsoft and Google has on a regular basis with software updates for those platforms. I'm sure there won't be many software update problems from Microsoft (I'm sure they learned with the first WP7 update that caused problems for some Samsung Windows Phones) but it would be so much more convenient for Microsoft if they had only one hardware OEM or just selling phones directly and not licensing Windows Phone to others. But again, people would (fairly) say Microsoft is primarily a software company. But if they made their own hardware to go with Windows Phone and didn't license it to OEMs, it sure wouldn't have such a big market share adoption rate as it can get from licensing it to so many OEMs, but it would have its own benefits.

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