Analyst: WP7 to overtake iPhone in 2016


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bob_c_b

I got my Samsung Focus on launch day in the US, along with a couple other friends (we are all Windows engineers at a couple large companies so we are always rooting for MS to get this stuff right). I held out the longest, only selling mine a couple weeks ago. Windows Phone 7 will survive in some form because MS desperately needs a viable mobile strategy, but it's got a long way to go before it surpasses anything, and if it does it will be sheerly through ubiquity, much like Android. The vast majority of Android handsets are rubbish, only a few are really good phones, but since every carrier has several of course it's doing well. Those handful of handsets that are really nice are also the ones who have managed to stay current and avoid the fragmentation issues (please don't talk about rooting/modding, 99% of the population does not care to do this).

Glad i went back to iPhone, just a better overall experience and until MS fixes their issues with updates and carriers messing with their plans they will remain a small percentage of the user base. No doubt they have the cash and the need to stay in the market, but they squandered their first shot at rebooting their mobile image. If the rumors of "no tablets until back to school 2012" from MS, well... I don't have words for what a bad idea that is.

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jakem1

Well considering Android was only available on one single device for quite some time, a device which had pretty weak hardware, and WP7 was available on quite a few at launch, yeah I would say there is a difference. And like I stated, it wasn't the whole Android market that was unavailable, just paid applications.

Android didn't even start to take off until the release of the first Motorola Droid but it's real success didn't come until the release of the Nexus One. By that time 9 Android phones had been released and the OS had been on the market for 14 months. In fact, the Nexus One was only necessary because Android sales were so poor in the first year despite the large number of phone available.

As KavazovAngel posted above, the situation with Microsoft's marketplace is exactly the same as Google's in that free apps are available in more markets than paid apps.

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tomwarren

Not sure if anyone has pointed this out already in the thread (haven't read it all)....

This "report" is completely inaccurate. Ovum does not say that WP7 will overtake iOS. It actually says iOS will be second to Android and WP7 will come in third place!

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XIII

I got my Samsung Focus on launch day in the US, along with a couple other friends (we are all Windows engineers at a couple large companies so we are always rooting for MS to get this stuff right). I held out the longest, only selling mine a couple weeks ago. Windows Phone 7 will survive in some form because MS desperately needs a viable mobile strategy, but it's got a long way to go before it surpasses anything, and if it does it will be sheerly through ubiquity, much like Android. The vast majority of Android handsets are rubbish, only a few are really good phones, but since every carrier has several of course it's doing well. Those handful of handsets that are really nice are also the ones who have managed to stay current and avoid the fragmentation issues (please don't talk about rooting/modding, 99% of the population does not care to do this).

Glad i went back to iPhone, just a better overall experience and until MS fixes their issues with updates and carriers messing with their plans they will remain a small percentage of the user base. No doubt they have the cash and the need to stay in the market, but they squandered their first shot at rebooting their mobile image. If the rumors of "no tablets until back to school 2012" from MS, well... I don't have words for what a bad idea that is.

I might have to do the same thing, sigh... Updates keep on being pushed further and further. Just yesterday, my Focus crashed like two times. I was playing music and the phone just locked up. After I reset the phone, I tried opening the news and it just refused to update. Then the phone went to sleep mode and once again got locked up at the lock screen. I just check ebay and seems like I might have to take a hit. WP7 phone prices have been going down slowly but steadily as more people are looking to unload their handsets. Good jobs MS. You deserved a chance to try again but you kept on failing ... Next time, just release your god-damn devices yourself and let us update directly. No more carrier bull****...

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jakem1

I might have to do the same thing, sigh... Updates keep on being pushed further and further. Just yesterday, my Focus crashed like two times. I was playing music and the phone just locked up. After I reset the phone, I tried opening the news and it just refused to update. Then the phone went to sleep mode and once again got locked up at the lock screen. I just check ebay and seems like I might have to take a hit. WP7 phone prices have been going down slowly but steadily as more people are looking to unload their handsets. Good jobs MS. You deserved a chance to try again but you kept on failing ... Next time, just release your god-damn devices yourself and let us update directly. No more carrier bull****...

Have you added an SD card to your Focus? That might explain your lock-ups.

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Subject Delta

Android didn't even start to take off until the release of the first Motorola Droid but it's real success didn't come until the release of the Nexus One. By that time 9 Android phones had been released and the OS had been on the market for 14 months. In fact, the Nexus One was only necessary because Android sales were so poor in the first year despite the large number of phone available.

As KavazovAngel posted above, the situation with Microsoft's marketplace is exactly the same as Google's in that free apps are available in more markets than paid apps.

Wrong, the HTC Hero was the first Android phone that really sold in high numbers. The Nexus One was not really all that successful when compared with the figures for the HTC Hero and Desire

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bob_c_b

I might have to do the same thing, sigh... Updates keep on being pushed further and further. Just yesterday, my Focus crashed like two times. I was playing music and the phone just locked up. After I reset the phone, I tried opening the news and it just refused to update. Then the phone went to sleep mode and once again got locked up at the lock screen. I just check ebay and seems like I might have to take a hit. WP7 phone prices have been going down slowly but steadily as more people are looking to unload their handsets. Good jobs MS. You deserved a chance to try again but you kept on failing ... Next time, just release your god-damn devices yourself and let us update directly. No more carrier bull****...

I'm not wasting another minute on it and neither should you, total disappointment. Our MS TAM wishes this would have never come out so he could get an iPhone, I think that says it all.

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Ayepecks

Any predictions made this far out are always setting themselves up for failures. That'd be like picking the winner of the next generation of consoles right now. It's just dumb. Apple could easily come out with a brand new, overhauled version of iOS, or Microsoft could blunder the improvements they've outlined. I can see either being ahead of the other, quite honestly -- they're both good systems.

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XIII

Have you added an SD card to your Focus? That might explain your lock-ups.

I added a Sandisk 16GB class 2 but it was running fine before I installed the Pre-Nodo update... After that, it just random crashes once in a while. I am sure it is a fairly popular card so I am not sure why i am the only one experiencing this issue. What card would you guys recommend to use with WP7 then ?

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HawkMan

The Android marketplace has always been available in Europe. There were issues on some devices with paid apps. And to use one country as an example is pretty stupid, I have been able to access the Android market ever since I got my first Android phone way back in 2007.

oh, so you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about ?

last year, Norway among some 12 or was it 18 other nations, finally got full Marketplace access. before that it was pretty much the same as WP7, France, Germany , UK. Maybe before you try to refute something, you should actually know somethign about it, because no Europe didn't always have full marketplace. most of Europe had only access to free marketplace like in WP7, on top of that, the Android marketplace is very globally fragmented, and lots of devs don't release their apps with global licenses, even the free apps.

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jakem1

I added a Sandisk 16GB class 2 but it was running fine before I installed the Pre-Nodo update... After that, it just random crashes once in a while. I am sure it is a fairly popular card so I am not sure why i am the only one experiencing this issue. What card would you guys recommend to use with WP7 then ?

Try Google for a list of approved memory cards as people have experienced problems using any old card available to them, even if the card is fine in other devices.

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Subject Delta

oh, so you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about ?

last year, Norway among some 12 or was it 18 other nations, finally got full Marketplace access. before that it was pretty much the same as WP7, France, Germany , UK. Maybe before you try to refute something, you should actually know somethign about it, because no Europe didn't always have full marketplace. most of Europe had only access to free marketplace like in WP7, on top of that, the Android marketplace is very globally fragmented, and lots of devs don't release their apps with global licenses, even the free apps.

And Google are at fault for the behaviour of their developers how?

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astroXP

Don't forget to watch tomorrow's new dramatic episode: WP7 vs. Android. Here on Neowin.net 7/8 PM EDT

I say most of the time members' posts are far more interesting than the article itself. :laugh:

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HawkMan

And Google are at fault for the behaviour of their developers how?

what ? Google is the one who runs the marketplace, google is the one who sets up the deals, google is the one who tells them what licenses they should use.

nice of you to ignore the whole thing and focus on one fairly unimportant thing and not even admit you where wrong on the rather major point though.

btw, since you also though Android marketplace was globally available from the start. Here's where it's at right now

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_Market

notice how the amount of countries listed is kind of a LOT smaller than the number of countries in the world ?

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Subject Delta

what ? Google is the one who runs the marketplace, google is the one who sets up the deals, google is the one who tells them what licenses they should use.

nice of you to ignore the whole thing and focus on one fairly unimportant thing and not even admit you where wrong on the rather major point though.

btw, since you also though Android marketplace was globally available from the start. Here's where it's at right now

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_Market

notice how the amount of countries listed is kind of a LOT smaller than the number of countries in the world ?

I never tried to actually claim that the Android market was perfect, but it's pretty typical of Microsoft apologists to deflect like you have. I am not admitting that I am wrong, because I wasn't. I said that the limitation was that paid apps were not available in those countries, and I am right in that assertion. Free apps can still be downloaded.

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jakem1

Wrong, the HTC Hero was the first Android phone that really sold in high numbers. The Nexus One was not really all that successful when compared with the figures for the HTC Hero and Desire

Sure, the Hero sold well compared to the G1 but it it didn't do anything substantial for Android's market share which was in the low single digits for a long, long time after the Hero went on sale. I agree that the Nexus One itself didn't sell well compared to the Desire but it gave Android some much needed legitimacy and after it hit the market Android finally experienced some growth.

The fact is that it took years before Android saw substantial growth (for whatever reason) but you expect Microsoft to capture a substantial share of the market right out of the gate. That's unreasonable and you know it.

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HawkMan

no, what you said was that The android marketplace was always globally available, and when I said it wasn't in Norway, you said that was an isolated country, while we where one of 12 or 18 natiosn who got in at last years expansion.

and again, you can't go sayign that MS is doing this wrong and then claim that google is so much better, when it situation is carbon copy identical

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Subject Delta

Sure, the Hero sold well compared to the G1 but it it didn't do anything substantial for Android's market share which was in the low single digits for a long, long time after the Hero went on sale. I agree that the Nexus One itself didn't sell well compared to the Desire but it gave Android some much needed legitimacy and after it hit the market Android finally experienced some growth.

The fact is that it took years before Android saw substantial growth (for whatever reason) but you expect Microsoft to capture a substantial share of the market right out of the gate. That's unreasonable and you know it.

And as I keep seeming to have to constantly point out to you, the point is still irrelevant. For the first 18 odd months of it's life Android wasn't available on that many devices. WP7 was available on what... at least 10, right off the bat?

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lalalawawawa

And as I keep seeming to have to constantly point out to you, the point is still irrelevant. For the first 18 odd months of it's life Android wasn't available on that many devices. WP7 was available on what... at least 10, right off the bat?

Leave my Windows Phoney alone! Go hug an Android!

:p :laugh:

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micro

WP7 Rocks and will only get better. I see it overtaking the iPhone for sure. Nokia will bring world domination.

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Mr. Gibs

Well the IDC has also stepped in with a similar report:

11x0329113ni3s.jpg

Source: Engadget

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Lachlan

Why are people being so angry.. this was a professional financial estimate for investment purposes.. people are thinking this is like a 15 year old saying this.. nooo it is a group of experts that have concluded on the numbers and the info they had.. If the Iphone 5 is awesome then ya the information is different but with everything else they have this is their best guess.

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kevpan815

That Graphic Chart does not take into account the fact that there are some people like me who traded in their Droids and got an IPhone but are still paying 4 both the Driod Subsciption from Verizon and the IPhone Subscription from AT&T! Just FYI!

That Graphic Chart does not take into account the fact that there are some people like me who traded in their Droids and got an IPhone but are still paying 4 both the Driod Subsciption from Verizon and the IPhone Subscription from AT&T! Just FYI!

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Mr. Gibs

That Graphic Chart does not take into account the fact that there are some people like me who traded in their Droids and got an IPhone but are still paying 4 both the Driod Subsciption from Verizon and the IPhone Subscription from AT&T! Just FYI!

Yeh I think you're the only person who does that. Don't see why someone would pay for 2 cell-phone plans at like at least $70 a month when they could just cancel one and pay the ETF.

Not to mention this is talking about 2015, I highly doubt you'll still be paying for 2 contracts by then...

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kevpan815

My ETF with Verizon is very high because I have 2 Smart Phones and 1 4G USB Line on that Subscription, and I am on limited income because I receive Disability from The U.S.A. Government as my only source of Income!

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