Linux Stands to Gain if Windows 8 falls

[PGHammer]

The most likely thing that's going to happen if Windows 8 fails, is Windows 7 is going to prevail.

More like continue to prevail, as that is exactly what Windows 7 has done - it's even chasing XP out of the enterprise, which Vista didn't even come close to doing.

As to basing what will be in the final product by what's in the Developer Preview - ri-diclious. It would be - and is, in fact - just as foolish to predict what will be in the successor to Windows 7 by what was in *either* of the two leaked builds prior to the Developer Preview. (Those two leaked builds - 7929 and 7989 - were locked down, albeit in the opposite direction, as the Developer Preview was, and for the same reason: 7929 and 7989 were designed to test hardware and application compatibility - specifically, existing hardware and application compatibility. The Developer Preview was for a single primary purpose - to jump-start development of Immersive/Metro-design applications - not for legacy-application compatibility (despite how swimmingly it does on that score) or even hardware-compatibility testing (again, despite the surprisingly-solid and stable performance on that front so far).)

The Linux/UNIX/FOSS fanbase is, understandably concerned by the Developer Preview, but not because of what's in it, or even what is missing. What is concerning is that the Developer Preview is several things atypical of previous Developer Previews, for any version of Windows.

1. It's stable. The first widespread Developer Preview of any version of Windows typically earns the usual caveats about not using it as a primary operating system - primarily due to application/gaming/hardware-compatibility issues. This Developer Preview has surprisingly few such caveats - in fact, it has fewer than the first Developer Previews of any version of Windows I can recall.

2. It's compatible with existing applications and games. Here is, in fact, the biggest shocker I've run into so far - only one game (which is NOT fully updated) has failed to work in the Developer Preview. I have had exactly zero application failures. Yes - you read that right.

3. It's compatible with existing hardware. This is, like applications (in fact, more so than applications) what has enabled Linux and UNIX to gain users from Windows - hardware-specific compatibility issues. Basically, if it's supported by Windows Vista (let alone Windows 7) it's supported by the Developer Preview. Hardware requirements are, in fact, unchanged from Windows 7. If your hardware and your applications are still supported, why move away from Windows?

4. It's updatable. Unlike previous Developer Previews (again, of any version of Windows), this one is designed for long-term (and I do mean LONG term) thrashing - the time-bomb is a year off.

5. It's readily available. Combined with the other points, this one is doubtless causing much consternation. It's as available as any Linux distribution - the obstacles are largely bandwidth, time, and storage space - the same that apply to obtaining most Linux distributions. It's as if Microsoft had decided to go after Linux on the penguin's terms, and on the penguin's turf. (The only thing as unlikely would be Larry Ellison and Richard Stallman - together - in an ad for Windows.) While intended for developers, you don't have to be one to download, and/or use it.

[daniel_rh]

I don't see Linux winning with the OSX in the middle

[Ravensky]

this topic shows up everytime Microsoft gets close to an OS release...and Linux is still what 5% at the most of the market share?

Please...

[PGHammer]

Millions did? Hrmm, maybe. Just because of the release of Vista? Doubtful. When Vista came out, there were already promises for everything to be fixed in a future Windows release (7). So people either stayed on XP, went back to XP, or dealt with Vista until 7 came out. I ran Vista on this very PC and it was flawless. I only had to use it for two months until 7 came out. So if people do not like change, they are not going to change to something completely different. Linux has seen a steady increase in market share over the past five years or so. A steady, but very very slow incline.

So basically I am saying that if Windows 8 or whatever it may be called is released and it flops due to a completely new GUI, etc., it will not matter because there are millions of people happy with Windows 7 as it stands right now. Or XP. Or maybe even Vista, for that matter. Linux will not gain any faster than it already is. It never will.

I certainly didn't consider Vista a failure - I moved lock stock and barrel to Vista with the RC because I *didn't* have the issues that were complained about. In fact, Mom followed me to Vista when the RTM came out - Ultimate x32 in both cases. I changed bitnesses when I upgraded from P4 Northwood-C (x32) to Celeron DC E1200 (x64) and from Vista Ultimate x64 to 7 Ultimate x64. (Again, Mom followed suit when she upgraded from my old Northwood-C (she had already upgraded from Vista Ultimate x32 to 7 Ultimate x32) to P4 Prescott in LGA775 (7 Ultimate x64) despite having *less* RAM than she did prior to the upgrade.)

For once, I actually doubt that she'll follow me to Windows 8 - the lack of a Start menu as the default (as the Developer Preview is) would be WAY too jarring. (Despite how different either Vista or 7 is from XP, the UIs are so similar they may as well be the same OS otherwise.) However, for that same reason, Mom is *not* a Linux migration candidate - too many of the applications and light games she relies on being available are only available for Windows - no Linux equivalents. (If she were, I would recommend KDE, as the GUI is most like that of XP/Vista/7.) Mac? Please - price is an issue!

So what would be the motivation?

[Shadrack]

If Windows 8 fails... Well, there's still Windows XP, Vista, and 7.

[Xenon]

Care to go into more detail and tell us why "Linux sucks." By itself, that's such a trollish comment.

How about it just took me 25 minutes to get my monitor to display the correct resolution. And the printer driver does not work at all. All on Ubuntu 11.04.

[capr]

there is NOTHING wrong with windows 7. if 8 fails, people will just stick or go back to 7. and from the looks of it, it's not going to fail. so these are some really big IFs.

[sonyman]

Linux wouldn't gain squat if Windows 8 fails. It's not a serious competitor on the desktop. Apple would simply gain more marketshare.

[Tomoko]

If Microsoft pulled Windows off the market and went out of business forever, Linux still wouldn't gain.

[Quillz]

I've heard this before so many time. But if Windows 8 fails, OS X stands to gain more than Linux. If Windows 8 is terrible, and people don't like it they'll either stay with Win7 or go get a Mac. Very few people will install a Linux Distro.

Exactly. How many hundreds of times have we heard the tired argument about "x being the year of the Linux desktop." It gets said every year and every year it doesn't happen.

[The_Observer]

Linux success on the desktop has little/nothing to do with anything MS does (at least on the fair side of things, shady deals are a different issue and kinda irrelevant for this thread).

It depends on it's own merits, which includes software support by third parties like game devs, Adobe and the likes... basically, availability of mainstream software titles or better alternatives (people won't bother switching to something different that is only just as good).

It also needs better support from hardware devs. As it is, Linux supports more hardware devices than Windows and OSX, but it's not the number of drivers but the quality of those for mainstream desktop hardware where it's sometimes lacking (gfx cards, wifi, 3g dongles...). It's not THAT bad, and it's improving, but again to get people to switch to something different you must offer something that's not just good enough or about as good, but definitely better (or perceived as such, at least).

It also needs corporate backing for OEM adoption (something that Canonical is doing to some extent) to avoid screw ups like all those netbooks with crappy distros that in some cases didn't even properly support the very hardware they shipped with.

Hardware is the biggest one for me! software i can though it but hardware is a bitch!

[Dotdot]

fail! people arent gonna go to linux because of a win8 failure, sorry but the logic involved here is idiotic at best. people will use what they had previously. i.e xp/vista/7 not throw Windows out completely and decide to fire up linux. sorry but totally idiotic post.

[Solid Knight]

If Windows 8 fails consumers will still be oblivious to Linux.

[.Neo]

Exactly. How many hundreds of times have we heard the tired argument about "x being the year of the Linux desktop." It gets said every year and every year it doesn't happen.

Maybe some have to believe it, otherwise they wouldn't be able to get up in the morning. :laugh:

[Mazhar]

Windows 8 won't fail. And if it does, Windows 7 will take the leap.

[Steven P. Administrators]

Previous titles:

Linux Stands to Gain if Windows 98 falls (1997)

Linux Stands to Gain if Windows ME falls (1999)

Linux Stands to Gain if Windows XP falls (2001)

Linux Stands to Gain if Windows Vista falls (2007)

Linux Stands to Gain if Windows 7 falls (2009)

[Bugballou]

Linux is the playground that helps PC and Mac with their "innovations". Comparing Linux to PC and Mac is ridiculous. There are so many distributions and GUI's out there, and specialized distributions for everything from multimedia to security. Linux does make other operating systems usable again by booting from a USB or Live CD to gain access to a system that will no longer boot into the OS. Linux being successful with the "masses" may never happen, but most people who access the web use it every day without realizing it. My link

[.Neo]

Linux is the playground that helps PC and Mac with their "innovations.

If anything it's the other way around. Linux developers constantly copy interface elements from both Aqua and Aero and randomly smash them together in whatever distro they're building.

[cork1958]

Every year since the late 90s has been the year Linux will start going mainstream. It's almost like the rapture now. :laugh:

I think every OEM has tried selling Linux on their computers, and even Walmart tried to sell PCs with it. No one wanted it.

I almost got one of those Walmart Linux specials back in 2007. They had 2 models of an Everex computer then. One with Vista and one with Linux Gentoo. I got one of the one's with Vista on it just to see if Vista was really as bad as the hacked copies of it I had tried. Was a real bad decision actually, as that machine was way to under powered to run Vista. After upgrading the memory and video card, I was able to determine that BOTH the machine AND Vista sucked, but it was mostly Vista that sucked!! After about 2 days of using that thing, I tried to install Gentoo on it and it wouldn't even let me do that!! Down graded it to XP and it ran pretty good. Still have that machine too with Windows 7 on it. Runs fairly decent actually.

Linux will NEVER be a mainstream OS as long as that command line is such an essential part of it. I guess if you NEVER get updates, you would be alright, but I can't count the times that either the video drivers or kernel updates have screwed up my installs, that without the command line and an extra computer to search for help, you'd never get the thing fixed. Yeah, I know Windows has had that happen also, but not nearly as many times as Linux.

[Hum]

Cool --- here's to Linux 8 :fun:

[speedstr3789]

Linux hs never been nor will it ever be a viable alternative for the masses.

[Beyond Godlike]

Linux is great on phones n stuff, but until theres the all mighty 1 distro it just isnt gonna be ready. Until you can go buy an app and install it as easily as on windows,8 its not ready. I think theres also a big issue with apps. I personally can never make linux my main OS just cause there are some windows apps that just work perfectly that there is no linux alternative to. Trillian for example, runs on my desktop/phone, and no other IM client has the sync features and nice look.

Alot of multi platform apps run differently on linux to. Firefox takes FOREVER to get updates for unless you do manual installs(then i somehow always end up with 2). But autoupdates for FX take like 6 months on Linux.

[MS Bob 11]

Maybe a good Linux distro can succeed if gets right the UI, one that's beautiful and that doesn't change with every release, correct usability, the right release cycle and corporate backing and support, like Windows already has. Everything else - the technical side - security, networking, administration, performance, ease of use Linux is already at par with Windows IMHO. Even if it succeeds, it won't get beyond 3-5% market share.

[medhunter]

Existing Fact is windows dominate and will dominate and if 8 is a mess, 7 will still dominate.

But the thing is unless people are willing to Accept another new thing and want something they can control at any cost(say free), linux will not have much.

Linux is about the freedom, not just another OS. It's a dogma rather than just an idea.

My point of view: I use linux occasionally since 1998.I use win7 for every day uses and dual boot Ubuntu.

The only thing keeping win7 on my PC is :

1- Fifa: if it plays well on linux, I 'll give up windows

2- Magic Jack : USB VOIP phone with no native linux support

Had these been fixed, I 'll dump win7.

i feel more secure on Linux, More stable, More productive.

And guess what, I don't care what my wife, brother, or co-workers say or feel what is right. I just Love Freedom, security and the software center of linux.

[coolguy80]

People want support with OS either directly or indirectly. I am not saying all Windows users are Legal users. The application support,ease of software availability,gaming and more. - Applies for pirated OS users too.

Geeks love Gnu/Linux. People who don't mind learning or "reverse"/unlearn Windows way will stick with Gnu/Linux. but, even the most ardent fan of Gnu/Linux will be 'desperate' once you found your wireless device or usb dongle is not working. how many will try to get driver sources(if available) or windows driver emulation and kernel recompiling etc for the hardware support? or worse, NO Support for Your hardware device?

Similarly, about Softwares like CAD,GRAPHICS etc where does Gnu/Linux Stands in Professional Level Applications for above usage?

Many cannot get a grip on package Management in the distros.

Even if, Gnu/Linux gets as user-friendly as possible or equivalent to Windows, Gnu/Linux or any Free(Open Source) OS will not benefit from a large user base. It needs Hypes and a seller(like MS) to have a OS successful.

using Gnu/Linux for 10 years now. I am in the minority.