Blu-ray is dead

[LTD]

The future will *not* be found on removable disc media.

[Roadrunna]

I have a 28 Inch TV, the old fashioned kind, and I won't be upgrading to HDTV til that one is dead. When I do it'll probably be to maximum 37 Inch HDTV and only then will I consider BluRay because I don't think I'd notice any difference with DVDs on my current TV.

I posted the article because it's fun to read all the arguments! Downloads, I don't think will work because I can't see us being allowed to burn our movies to disc when our chosen movie service decides to shut up shop and invalidate the DRM used.

[Ash]

I believe HD Downloads will be like what PayPerView is to DVD/VHS etc.

I remember when PPV started here, all the video clubs were ******* their pants because they thought they would be destroyed by PPV. They are still around.

And as like other people pointed out, bandwidth concerns. Many more ISPs have caps now than before, because of the increased amount of people on the networks and the increased traffic, partly stemming from places like YouTube. In order to be able to handle HD streaming to the general population and sustain a heavy user base that could be competitive to physical media, would require major upgrades to the ISP and would make the services a lot more expensive. Honestly I don't see streaming being as huge a hit as some may think. Even if they stream it over the net and it was like HD PayPerView, through cable and satellite providers, again, PPV didn't destroy regular VHS/DVD.

I am a collector, owning over 400 movies/series (yes, all originals) because like like having my shelves displaying all my movies. I have bought many that I haven't even watched yet. There are also many others like me. Cutting off physical collectible media, will probably affect sales.

BluRay may survive, I do notice a difference between BluRay and upscaled DVD, but for me so far is hasn't a huge enough deal to warrant a surchase of a player at the current prices. Not to mention the current state of the economy... luxury purchases are less of a priority.

[netwokz]

the only way HD downloads will work in the US is that we have faster Dl capabilities (wich just now Quest has Fibre).... so until that day i see BLD on top. but then again most everybody won't (or doesn't care to) see the difference to the extreme enough to spend the money to upgrade to a full 1080p experience.

[IceBreakerG]

Honestly, I won't be satisfied with being able to download movies or stream them until I can get all of the extra features that would be on the disc as well. Take the Iron Man Blu-Ray release for example. The movie is badass. No doubt about that. But it also has a pretty impressive list of special features and extras on the 2nd disc that I'd be missing out on if I didn't have the disc. I mean yeah, it's great to have the movie, but what about the extras and special features? I really like to watch that stuff, especially when it's a movie I like. I like to see how it was filmed and how they made it.

[TruckWEB]

HD Downloads with most ISPs setting monthly caps? Uh, no thanks. I likes my blu-ray discs.

That, and the fact that (right now) digital download in HD seems limited to 720p with a bitrate lower than what it should for great quality (picture & sound).

And I love to have a physical media in my hand. Even if I rip all my AudioCD, if my HDD fail, I still have my AudioCD as backup. Same goes for DVD and Blu-Ray.

I would not mind digital download for rental, but not for owning.

But the current price of Blu-Ray player (they slowly lowers in price) and the movies are going to kill the format. Each time I want to buy a Blu-Ray movie, it feels like I'm buying a Ferrari. BD movies for $26 to $40 here and most DVD, even new release, are MAX $20... Why?? It's the same f*ken movie.

[jerzdawg]

I just think the prices of the movies need to come down a bit to increase the market share... you can pick up DVDs on sale for $10 but then the same movie on blu will be $20 or $25 ... thats a huge difference for your average customer to shell out... the die hards will pick up the blu because they know the differences... for now I stick to just renting the bluray movies...

[Joel]

I strongly disagree with that article. As more people are buying HDTVs, more people are starting to buy Blu-ray players because it's the only way you're going to watch true 1080p content. DVDs can only be upconverted and HD cables only shows 720p content to limit the bandwidth. Once February 2009 hits, trust me. I'll bet Blu-ray sales will skyrocket.

2 things wrong with that statement; you don't need 1080p on a smaller than 37" (some even say higher) display, and upconverting players are not limited to 720p. You're mis-stating the cable issue completely. HDMI will happily pass an upconverted signal.

[HawkMan]

its because nearly everything plays dvd's. fast forward 6 years and I wouldn't be suprised to find a BD-ROM drive in everything.

Problem is, most people can't see the advantages of HD over SD until someone shows them. With VHS->DVD the difference was a little more clear.

Frankly as the article states, BD is a niche market for the videophiles. and I agree it most likely will stay that way.

People just don't see any advantage over DVD, and for the regular person, there really isn't oh yeah.. clearer picture... well they don't really care. and with services like netflix and such, I don't see regular movie watchers going to pick up obscure disc formats they don't understand when they can just stream directly, SD or HD. It's a convenience thing.

[Nicholas-c Veteran]

generally i think its a "way should i upgrade" factor, thats the reason my aunty and mom wont upgrade, "Whats the point, its the same as DVD" When we went from VHS to DVD there was a physical change that people could relate to, "It's better! no moving parts and smaller"

[Guest]

I agree, why indeed upgrade. It's only the tech savy people that are upgrading at the moment. You also have to think BD also only benefits if you have a HDTV. DVD from VHS was just a whole new platform. Other than being HD there isn't any difference to go from DVD to BD.

[RAID 0]

The future will *not* be found on removable disc media.

Holy crap! LTD and I agree on something. :D

Jean-Luc Picard didn't carry around a external hard drive. Think about that.

[clotz2000]

Blu-Ray will definitely be around for quite some time. It will be a long while before HD downloads will catch on especially considering the time involved to download 1080p movies. The quality of what they are calling HD is a step up from SD but nothing true to the 1080p/Uncompressed Audio that Blu-Ray gives you, not to mention what IceBreakerG said about the extra features.

As for the Jean-Luc Picard comment: I don't remember them having too many external hard drives at this time: premiered the week of September 28, 1987, ended the week of May 23, 1994. And Yes I know it was supposed to be set in the future...

[Arkos Reed]

It will be a long while before HD downloads will catch on especially considering the time involved to download 1080p movies.

I beg to differ.

Seeing how widely 1080p movies are made available through the 'usual' channels and their current download size, about anyone with a decent ADSL2+ line in europe can get one of these in less than 2 hours.

[Colin-uk Veteran]

even during the HD war i thought that blu ray was only good for backing up to media, and even then it would be rare because hard drives are so cheap now :)

[clotz2000]

I beg to differ.

Seeing how widely 1080p movies are made available through the 'usual' channels and their current download size, about anyone with a decent ADSL2+ line in europe can get one of these in less than 2 hours.

True, the people who have the proper connection and knowledge can get them fine but if the downloads are going out to the masses of people that are still learning how to get a decent internet connection and don't actually know what the numbers 1080 on the outside of their TV box means will have issues.

[TruckWEB]

I talk to many customers about this, and they dont want to start buying bluray after already spending alot on DVD's.

Same for myself, i have tons of DVd's and still buy DVd's. im not even ready to switch over to bluray.

You do know that most Blu-ray player can upconvert to 1080p your DVD collection and will be able to play new BD movies...

You're not losing anything, you can still enjoy your DVD's. I have tons of them but I try to buy new movies on BD now.

[Southern Patriot]

Holy crap! LTD and I agree on something. :D

Jean-Luc Picard didn't carry around a external hard drive. Think about that.

Nope, but Captain Kirk was quite often seen using removable media that looked quite a bit like 3.5" floppy discs, and Geordi Laforge used similar media that was about the size of an original Sony Memory Stick or an average USB flash drive.

[Steffan]

It's ironic I buy $50-60 games (like 2 in a year) but I refuse to pay $40 for a new movie (on BD that is)

Most movies you watch once and that's it. While a game, you play over and over again.

[Jediweasel]

What, my Beta player isn't the new hotness anymore? Dang it...

[Sean B. Veteran]

I've never watched a movie via a Blu-Ray disk. I find it obserd to pay $45+ for a movie simply to get a little better quality. DVD's work fine for me and my family :).

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

You know what ****es me off about all these kind of articles?

Why is it always OR? Blu Ray OR DVD. Blu Ray OR HD Downloads.

Journalists should take note of the use of "AND" for once.

Nothing is dieing, we're going to have multiple options for consumers on the market for many many many years to come. Options between physical and download, spanning over SD and HD.

Market Forecast

HD: Blu Ray AND HD Downloads

SD: DVD AND SD Downloads

If there's a market, Blu Ray will continue to exist. It absolutely does not need to become as popular as DVD did (in 3-4-5 years time physical/download may be at different %'s of the market due to broadband increases). Blu Ray is the only physical choice, if you genuinely think it's going to drop off the planet, what physical choice will there be? None. That wouldn't be very wise seeing as the physical market is essential....

Please just leave things the way they are, I like to have a physical choice, and a downloadable choice.

For everyone saying SD is enough, please understand some of us want HD and have money to spend on home entertainment.

For everyone saying HD should be enforced on everyone, please understand some people are happy with SD, or can't afford to make the leap yet.

But everyone understand we all want options, stop saying "or" all the time like the market can't support multiple consumer options. That quite frankly is ridiculous and leads to these sensationalist articles and 15 page forum topics of arguments because people fight the battle of "or", and are too ignorant to understand choice is essential.

Edited October 31, 2008 by Audioboxer

[draklin]

Holy crap! LTD and I agree on something. :D

Jean-Luc Picard didn't carry around a external hard drive. Think about that.

What about when Picard was Borg'd? I'm sure there was a hard drive somewhere.

I find it amazing how many threads there have been on this site about the death of BD. How come no one seems to mention that you have to buy a box for the same price as a BD Player to play all of those downloaded HD Movies? Or that the downloaded movies are missing all the extra stuff that you don't get if you have a Profile 1 player(which are cheap now) that everyone complains about over and over?

[nmesisca]

I beg to differ.

Seeing how widely 1080p movies are made available through the 'usual' channels and their current download size, about anyone with a decent ADSL2+ line in europe can get one of these in less than 2 hours.

sure sure..

but.. average speed is 3Mbps in Europe. At about 20euro x month.

so.. where exactly does the 2hour thing come from please?

also, BR rentals here have just upped the price from 5.25 to 5.50 euro (per day), so to be honest, my BR player will gather a lot of dust before I go back to watching BR. I could go for it (in principle) when the prices were the same, but if this is their strategy to make people embrace the technology, they wont be able to count on my support.

[+Warwagon MVC]

Netfix is where its at.

I have a netflix account with only Blu-ray movies. its Great. Lets admit it. Most movies you watch you wouldn't want to watch again. Take Iron Man for example. Fantastic one time watch. Wouldn't want to watch it again. But I did rent it via Netflix to watch on my home theater PC (Blu-ray upgraded / 42 inch TV. Works great. Watched it one night next day sent it back the next day ... 2 days later I got another one.