SpaceX Updates (Thread 8)

[DocM]

3 sources now; two NSF L2 sources paraphrased in the open forum and a launch photographer on r/SpaceX, reporting that NROL-76 and Inmarsat-5 F4 were Block 3 boosters with a Block 4 upper stage.

 

Also,

 

From KSC, the usual GTO insertion deltaV deficit is GTO -1,800 m/s. The number crunchers say the Inmarsat-5 F4 launch hit GTO -1,570 m/s, which is very close to a 3-stage Proton-M (!!) or Atlas V 541 (4 solid boosters, single engine Centaur upper stage.) Thaicom-8 hit GTO -1,492 m/s, but it only massed 3,100 kg. 

 

Accordingto Spaceflight101, Merlin 1D has a max throttle setting of at least 112%, so perhaps they tapped into that.

 

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42941e .msg1679467#msg1679467

 

NSF post 

Quote

#4 by biosehnsucht on 16 May, 2017 18:13

At least two different people have posted that they've heard from reliable sources (but of course, can't name them etc) that the last two flights were Block 4 second stages, but Block 3 first stages

 

r/SpaceX post

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/6bed12/comment/dhm1o04

 

Quote

OccupyMarsNow
Block 4?

johnkphotos 
AmericaSpace.com Photographer
Block 3 first stage, block 4 second stage.

Edited May 17, 2017 by DocM

[DocM]

 

[Blue-Vision]

Elon & Co. after the stats have come back from the latest launch could be summed up by the following ....

 

[Blue-Vision]

... and a Tweet from Elon which confirms that they can go at way more than the stated numbers:

SpaceX has been sandbagging the true performance of Block-3. Now we just need to figure out by how much. If we go by the "112% throttle" number being the "real 100%" output of the Falcon 9 as it currently sits -- Block-3, aka "Full Thrust" plus some mods like the new Helium load system and fixes to the engines to prevent microcracking -- they can finally run it at the intended power when needed.

 

Not surprising, when ya think about it. They've done this with the other iterations of Falcon 9, where they understated the power significantly. It's actually prudent to do this, from an Engineering perspective. Be conservative and overengineer your hardware at the same time and you'll have the capability to amaze friends and horrify competitors alike.

 

We shouldn't expect SpaceX to do this every launch yet. As Elon said, it was a "Qualification Test" at the higher thrust level. There's still some work to do (read: probably) for this level of thrust to be useful if they want to get the S1 back.

 

So now we know ...  

[DocM]

Sounds like Inmarsat was pleased with SpaceX's service.

 

https://www.universetoday.com/135614/will-launch-reuseable-rocket-exceptional-spacex-performance-inmarsat-ceo-tells-universe-today/

 

Quote

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FL  Following SpaceXs exceptional performance launching an immensely powerful broadband satellite on their maiden mission for Inmarsat this week on a Falcon 9 rocket, the company CEO told Universe Today that Inmarsat was willing to conduct future launches with SpaceX  including on a reusable rocket in the future!

 

"This has obviously been an absolutely exceptional performance from SpaceX," Inmarsat CEO Rupert Pearce told Universe Today in a post launch interview at the Kennedy Space Center on Monday, May 15.

"They have now earned themselves an immensely loyal customer."
>
"They hit the ball out of the park with this launch for us," Inmarsat CEO Pearce told me regarding the new space company founded by billionaire CEO Elon Musk.
>
Pearce says he has "every confidence in SpaceX."
>
I asked CEO Pearce; What does the future hold regarding further Inmarsat launches with SpaceX?

"They [SpaceX] have now just gained and earned themselves an immensely loyal customer [from Inmarsat]," CEO Pearce replied.

"We will be looking to do further launches with them."
>
Would you consider a used rocket, a previously flown booster?

"I'm sure we will be using a reused rocket," Pearce stated. "And we will be launching on a reusable rocket in the future."

"We will be looking to support them in any way we can with their new innovation programs."
>
Thus there are no landing legs or grid gins attached to the skin of this Falcon 9.

"This rocket that went today was not reusable. That was just a creature of its time," Pearce elaborated.

"We will stay at the cutting edge with SpaceX!"
>

 

 

[DocM]

A very large crane being delivered to the SpaceX Brownsville Texas spaceport site. Said to be for building the hangar and pad.

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/spacexgroup/permalink/10155422887331318/

[DocM]

How much does re-use save?

 

https://seasia.co/2017/05/01/indonesia-to-use-spacex-to-launch-next-satellite

 

Telkom the largest telecom company in Indonesia, is about to launch a new satellite next year, dubbed Telkom-4.

The satellite is on order from California-based Space Systems Loral and will be equipped with 60 transponders that can transmit 100 Gbps mobile broadband across Indonesia, India, and Southeast Asia.

The total investment was worth US$166 million, including US$10 million insurance. President Director of Telkom, Alex J. Sinaga mentioned to CNN, "Investment in Telkom-4 [satellite] will be cheaper as we use a reusable orbital rocket from SpaceX, so it will be cheaper as much as 40 percent."
>

 

[Blue-Vision]

 

[FloatingFatMan]

40 percent?  Wow, that's a MASSIVE saving off the costs!  I wonder how much more a reusable stage 2 would save...

 

[Blue-Vision]

Likely another 20%.  

[FloatingFatMan]

As a side note, I'm currently watching National Geographic channels' "Mars", docu-drama, with lots of interviews with Elon and others, and behind the scenes peeks at SpaceX.  If folks haven't seen it, see it!

[PaulRocket]

8 hours ago, DocM said:

How much does re-use save?

 

https://seasia.co/2017/05/01/indonesia-to-use-spacex-to-launch-next-satellite

 

 

 

 

Do you think this might be the official cost savings once Block 5 starts flying?

[DocM]

I believe that savings is for a Flight Proven™ block 3 booster and block 4 upper stage. The block 4 upper stage, which has mods for a long cruise after the first burn and before subsequent burns, has only flown twice: NROL-76 and Inmarsat-5 F4.  

 

The original budget for Telkom-4 was over $250 million + insurance and launch services on another rocket, so a ~40% savings for a Flight Proven™ F9 takes it down to $166 million and SpaceX can do the launch services in-house - cheap.

 

The $10m insurance for a Flight Proven™ F9 is within a percent or so of a new F9 or Ariane 5. Proton insurance has ballooned to 5x this or more because of its many...issues.

Edited May 21, 2017 by DocM

[DocM]

And so much has happened in that 5 years 

 

 

[Blue-Vision]

 Keep rocking it like only you do, SpaceX.

[DocM]

The next few weeks, subject to changes.

 

June 1: CRS-11 (KSC, static fire moved left 1 day)

 

June 15: Bulgariasat-1 (KSC)

 

June 25: Iridium Next #2 (Vandenberg, moved left 5 days)

 

July 1: Intelsat-35e (KSC)
 

[Blue-Vision]

 Just wait until all four Launch Sites are up and running .. four launches in a month will seem like they're slacking off.

[anthdci]

1 hour ago, Unobscured Vision said:

 Just wait until all four Launch Sites are up and running .. four launches in a month will seem like they're slacking off.

is there enough customers for that much?

[PaulRocket]

29 minutes ago, anthdci said:

is there enough customers for that much?

ULA is hoping no, but SpaceX is thinking that once reusability kicks in demand will skyrocket.

[Blue-Vision]

1 hour ago, anthdci said:

is there enough customers for that much?

Yes. There's actually a two-year backlog on flights right now, if memory serves. Probably more than two years and closer to four. They can't get them in the sky fast enough.

[DocM]

Using Falcon 9/Heavy to launch and maintain  the SpaceX/Google internet constellation will require nearly 90 launches a year.  4,425 satellites in the LEO rollout, 7,519 satellites in VLEO. 

 

Odds are a new large fairing, and/or another large SpaceX launcher, will need to be deployed to get that launch count minimized. 

[DocM]

Road work has started on Hwy 4 leading to and through the Texas launch center. 16 miles of road will be improved, extending the base from 8 feet deep to 16 feet. Should be done by August, then the big builds start.

 

Also, Waco is ~18 miles from the SpaceX test center in McGregor TX

 

http://www.wacotrib.com/news/business/waco-housing-boom-leaves-its-mark-on-tax-appraisals/article_9bc6e987-a841-5927-80a3-ca5a5dc8c066.html

 

Quote

Waco housing boom leaves its mark on tax appraisals

 

It's hard to be too surprised about rising tax appraisals when the superlatives about Waco real estate keep piling up.

Waco-area ZIP codes last year topped the list for most popular searches on Realtor.com, thanks in part to a certain television show. In the first quarter of 2017, the city of Waco saw a record 151 housing permits issued.

And local real estate agents are seeing things they've never seen in Waco, such as bidding wars over coveted homes.

"In 37 years, this is the strongest sellers market I've seen," said Kathy Schroeder, vice president of residential property at Coldwell Banker Jim Stewart Realtors. "I don't remember ever being this low on inventory."
>
"We're starting to see situations where people are bidding up prices on houses," she said. "It's not uncommon to list a house on Friday afternoon and by Sunday to have six offers, four above the asking price."

She said four of the last five houses she has sold have been to people moving in from outside Waco, including Houston and out of state. Some of the action is the result of Fixer Upper, but some has to do with the economy and new jobs at places such as SpaceX.
>

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by DocM

[DocM]

 

 

[Blue-Vision]

SpaceX aren't letting ULA'S POLITICAL B######T stop them anymore. The delays have been that and ONLY that. Political. 

 

As for the reflown Dragons? Yup. We knew that was coming.

[DocM]

More on Dragon re-use

 

Bloomberg....

 

Quote

SpaceX Taking Recycling All the Way to Orbit With Cargo Ship

 

Cape Canaveral, Fla. (AP) -- SpaceX is taking recycling to a whole new realm  all the way to orbit.

On this week's supply run to the International Space Station, SpaceX will launch a Dragon capsule that's already traveled there. The milestone comes just two months after the launch of its first reused rocket booster for a satellite.
>
This particular Dragon flew to the station in 2014. SpaceX refurbished it for Thursday evening's planned launch, providing a new heat shield and fresh parachutes for re-entry at mission's end. There were so many X-rays and inspections that savings, if any, were minimal this time, said Hans Koenigsmann, vice president of flight reliability for SpaceX.

>
While this Falcon booster is new, SpaceX will attempt to land it at Cape Canaveral following liftoff so it, too, can be reused. >
The private SpaceX and NASA are discussing the possibility of flying a reused booster on an upcoming delivery mission.

Koenigsmann told reporters more and more reused capsules will carry cargo to the space station, each possibly flying three times. 
>