Microsoft's Aurora 1.5 weather model could make hurricane predictions a lot better

Microsoft has just launched a major update for its open-access Aurora Earth-system foundation model, Aurora 1.5. This extension adds 22 new weather variables that are relevant to energy, agriculture, transport, and climate risk. Additionally, it provides hourly temporal resolution and probabilistic ensemble forecasting.

If you have ever tracked a hurricane or typhoon, you might be aware that there are various forecasting models available. The best of the bunch are generally considered to be the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble models. Well, with Aurora 1.5, Microsoft claims its model outperforms on 88.9% of evaluated targets.

This model also performs better against its previous version, with testing showing that the ensemble median achieved a one-third lower track error for tropical cyclones, such as Hurricane Helene.

While open access to Aurora 1.5 is great news for researchers, agencies, companies, and civil society, Microsoft will also be integrating it into its commercial products such as Microsoft Weather.

We all know that AI can give some dodgy outputs, so it wants to couple Aurora 1.5 with physics-based models, such as ECMWF, rather than replace them. The best cyclone forecasts are those that draw from multiple models, and drawing in Aurora 1.5’s predictions will just add more depth to the composite forecast, potentially helping to make people safer.

You can read the model’s paper or head over to GitHub to download it.