Analyst predicts Modern Warfare 2 will sell 11 million units

As reported by Gamasutra, Janco Partners' Mike Hickey has predicted that Modern Warfare 2 will not only rake-in $338 million in sales it's first day on the market, but that it will be the "largest videogame release of the year" by selling 11.1 million units by the end of 2009.

"We believe Modern Warfare 2 will likely be the largest video game release for [calendar year] 2009," wrote the analyst in an investor's note. "For the Company's fiscal Q409 period (Dec. ending), we anticipate the sell through to consumers of 11.1 million units for an estimated retail value of $803 million and sell-in approximating 12.4 million units, for an approximated sales value of $666 million (we assume demand is 90% of supply)."

Hickey continued to say that the popularity of the franchise has grown since the release of Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare. "We estimate the combined Xbox 360 and PS3 installed base for US and Europe has grown +125% and +200%, respectively since Modern Warfare's November '07 release, ushering in a remarkably larger market opportunity for Modern Warfare 2.

"We have estimated Modern Warfare life-to-date attach rates on the Xbox 360 and PS3 for both the United States and Europe and layered over the December '09 ending installed base estimates for our sell through scenarios.

"We meaningfully discounted each platforms life-to-date attach rate to arrive at our base case and worst case unit sell through estimates. In addition, we estimate that Modern Warfare has sold +2 million PC units, which we heavily discount for CY09 Modern Warfare 2 PC units sales estimates."

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