TabletPC's: who's gonna get them and when

Amidst all the hype it seems that fewer of us will have our grubby hands on a TabletPC than expected next year...

Despite a showy launch set for later today, a new generation of tablet PCs is not likely to make much of a mark in the mainstream notebook market, according to a pair of studies.

A report issued on Wednesday by Gartner Dataquest predicts the machines, based on a new version of Microsoft's Windows XP operating system, will account for just 1 per cent of worldwide notebook shipments in 2003, for a total of about 425,000 tablet PCs. Although they may find wider adoption in the niche markets that are currently using pen-based tablets, "only the bravest" will be using tablet PCs widely by the end of 2003, Gartner Dataquest VP Leslie Fiering said in a release.

Market researcher IDC also predicts tablet PCs will get off to a relatively slow start, selling about 575,000 units in the United States in 2003 and about 1 million units in 2004. The total US notebook market will be about 13 million units in 2003, IDC predicts, about 8 per cent of which will be ultraportables.

Acer, Fujitsu, HP and Toshiba are among the companies that will offer the systems. The tablet PCs run on Windows XP Tablet PC Edition, designed by Microsoft to handle pen input. The new tablets will come in two basic models: laptops with screens that can be folded around to make a tablet, and pure tablets, which look more like an Etch-a-Sketch toy. Most of the devices weigh between 3 and 4 pounds and cost $2,000 or more.

"A lack of application support, clumsy hardware designs and a price premium will be barriers for most users," Gartner VP Ken Dulaney said.

I'm no expensive consultant but I reckon I could have foretold that much. ;)

View: Tablet PCs - no big sales in 2003