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Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back

It's that time of year again for I, Cringely to make his predictions for the new year. Last year's predictions where right on the nose; and we'll just have to wait and see if this years predictions turn out true.

Now for this year's predictions, which come in no particular order. Given the global readership of this column, I'm sorry if the predictions seem too America-centric, but that's the way it goes.

1) It will happen late in the year, but Microsoft will make a bold run for video game leadership. Sony and Nintendo have both chosen IBM's Cell Processor for their next-generation game consoles. This is a processor that does not yet exist and for which nobody can fathom how to write games. While the two Japanese companies scratch their heads, Microsoft will be trying to make inroads with game developers and introduce its own next-generation machine. In the long run, though, Microsoft won't succeed in taking the gaming lead.

2) We still won't see a big example of cyber-terrorism simply because nobody has figured out how to actually kill people that way. When it comes to terrorism, all that matters are body counts. We will, however, see dramatic growth in cyber-extortion and plain old theft.

News source: I, Cringely

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