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Gartner research predicts Windows Phone 7 will fail like Kin

A well known market research company, Gartner, has made the prediction that Windows Phone 7 will ultimately be a flop -- much like the Kin -- and won't gather the popularity Microsoft hopes it will. 

InformationWeek reports that Gartner predicts that when Windows Phone 7 is released later this month, Microsoft will see a slight rise in their overall market share, and, after a short time it will fall even lower than what it currently is. They predict that Microsoft's market share will move from 4.7% this year to just 5.2% next year. Gartner also believe by 2014 Microsoft's market share will have declined to just 3.9%.

If Windows Phone 7 does fail as badly as the Kin, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, may not receive his yearly bonus. The Microsoft chief did not receive his maximum bonus this year despite a record year with the company's highest sales. Ballmer received half the amount he was entitled to, which would have been more if Microsoft's mobile division had been more successful.

Currently, Android based phones hold 32% of the US market and Apple holds 25% so Microsoft has a very large mountain to climb to get their phone into the hands of mobile smartphone users. Despite all the odds though, Steve Ballmer is still confident he can turn things around for their mobile division, the Wall Street Journal asked Ballmer,  

WSJ: If you look at the market share stats, the Apple guys have done well, the Android guys have really surged and you guys have lost share the past couple years. How hard is it to make that ground back up?
Mr. Ballmer: We'll see. The fact that things have been pretty dynamic means that they're probably still pretty dynamic.
WSJ: So you think things could change quickly in terms of market share?
Mr. Ballmer: I said they can. There's no doubt that things have changed quickly, and at least in my undergraduate degree in math, that's called an existence proof. We know it's possible, we'll see what happens.
We will find out soon enough if Gartner's estimates are correct or if Ballmer will be able to turn things around for Microsoft in the mobile market. 
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